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Information and media space in Latvia


•   Split into two information spaces: Latvian-language and Russian-language;

•   Strictly divided audiences;

•   The gap continues to grow;

•   Different interpretations, different messages, different aims.
The New Russian Foreign Policy Doctrine
 (prepared by the Russian Ministry of Foregn Affairs)
The New Russian Foreign Policy Doctrine
           (prepared by the Russian Ministry of Foregn Affairs)

•   Directs Russia’s foreign policy towards a more cooperative and self-
    interested approach;

•   Offers a new approach, promoting “mutual dependency with leading world
    powers on the basis of the interpenetration of economies and cultures” as
    being in Moscow’s interests, before concluding that the EU and the US are
    its most “desirable partners”

• In the Baltic States, Moscow’s plan is to try to acquire the
  use of territory and transport infrastructure to transit
  goods to the EU, and will consider buying “enterprises in
  the real economy in the sphere of power engineering,
  information technologies, logistics, and transport”
Which course for the next Government to take?
•   To keep relying on energy resources from Russia OR go on with
    diversification of energy supplies, reducing dependency on a single supplier;
•   To give green light for Russia to acquire shares (and to gain control) in
    transport, energy, IT enterprises and the banking sector OR restrict possibilities
    for Russia to rise its influence in the region via the economy tools;
•   To facilitate the sale of real estate in Latvia to Russian citizens (by granting the
    buyer the EU residence permit) OR keep strict control over those obtaining the
    EU residence permit;
•   To interrupt the financial support Programme with the IMF OR to continue
    it;
•   To keep the current tax system OR to shift the tax burden from the less
    wealthy citizens to real estate and capital income;
•   To weaken the position of the Latvian language OR secure Latvian as the
    only official language in Latvia;
•   To restructure the naional economy in order to create a stable middle-class OR
    maintain a narrow business elite;
Going back to January (before the party consolidation)
                                 Opinion-polls January 2010:
                         Possible division of seats in the Parliament


                                                            The only possible majority coalition:
40                     36                                   the left-wing pro-Russian Government
35
30
25
                              57 seats                                                     19
20
                                     14
15
                                                                                                         10
10        7                                                      7            7
5                                                 2%                                                                3,1%           2%
0
      For Human        Union     Greens' and Latvian First Peoples' Party "Society for New Era (EPP) The Civic     TB/ LNNK   All For Latvia!
        Right in     "Harmony     Farmer's Party/ Latvia's     (EPP)       Different                 Union (EPP)     (ECR)
     United Latvia Centre" (S&D)    Union    Way (ALDE)                     Poltics"
      (Verts/ ALE)               (Verts/ALE)
Situation in August 2010 (after the party consolidation)
                        Opinion-polls August 2010:
               Possible division of seats in the Parliament


35
                       30
30

25
                                     19
20                                                                          The 'Unity' Group

15                                                                          24 seats
          9
10
                                                 Alliance "For a                                                     TB/LNNK
5                                                Good Latvia“                                                        All for Latvia
                                                 9 seats                                                             9 seats
0
      For Human        Union     Greens' and Latvian First Peoples' Party "Society for New Era (EPP) The Civic     TB/ LNNK   All For Latvia!
        Right in     "Harmony     Farmer's Party/ Latvia's     (EPP)       Different                 Union (EPP)     (ECR)
     United Latvia Centre" (S&D)    Union    Way (ALDE)                     Poltics"
      (Verts/ ALE)               (Verts/ALE)
Possible Government coalition
Option I – large left-wing pro-Russian coalition
                     67 seats
Possible Government coalition
Option II - left-wing pro-Russian coalition
                  58 seats
Possible Government coalition
Option III - Mixed coalition
           54 seats
Possible Government coalition
                        Option IV –
Only possibility for a conservative and centre-right coalition
                          52 seats

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Current Political Situation In Latvia

  • 1. Information and media space in Latvia • Split into two information spaces: Latvian-language and Russian-language; • Strictly divided audiences; • The gap continues to grow; • Different interpretations, different messages, different aims.
  • 2. The New Russian Foreign Policy Doctrine (prepared by the Russian Ministry of Foregn Affairs)
  • 3. The New Russian Foreign Policy Doctrine (prepared by the Russian Ministry of Foregn Affairs) • Directs Russia’s foreign policy towards a more cooperative and self- interested approach; • Offers a new approach, promoting “mutual dependency with leading world powers on the basis of the interpenetration of economies and cultures” as being in Moscow’s interests, before concluding that the EU and the US are its most “desirable partners” • In the Baltic States, Moscow’s plan is to try to acquire the use of territory and transport infrastructure to transit goods to the EU, and will consider buying “enterprises in the real economy in the sphere of power engineering, information technologies, logistics, and transport”
  • 4. Which course for the next Government to take? • To keep relying on energy resources from Russia OR go on with diversification of energy supplies, reducing dependency on a single supplier; • To give green light for Russia to acquire shares (and to gain control) in transport, energy, IT enterprises and the banking sector OR restrict possibilities for Russia to rise its influence in the region via the economy tools; • To facilitate the sale of real estate in Latvia to Russian citizens (by granting the buyer the EU residence permit) OR keep strict control over those obtaining the EU residence permit; • To interrupt the financial support Programme with the IMF OR to continue it; • To keep the current tax system OR to shift the tax burden from the less wealthy citizens to real estate and capital income; • To weaken the position of the Latvian language OR secure Latvian as the only official language in Latvia; • To restructure the naional economy in order to create a stable middle-class OR maintain a narrow business elite;
  • 5. Going back to January (before the party consolidation) Opinion-polls January 2010: Possible division of seats in the Parliament The only possible majority coalition: 40 36 the left-wing pro-Russian Government 35 30 25 57 seats 19 20 14 15 10 10 7 7 7 5 2% 3,1% 2% 0 For Human Union Greens' and Latvian First Peoples' Party "Society for New Era (EPP) The Civic TB/ LNNK All For Latvia! Right in "Harmony Farmer's Party/ Latvia's (EPP) Different Union (EPP) (ECR) United Latvia Centre" (S&D) Union Way (ALDE) Poltics" (Verts/ ALE) (Verts/ALE)
  • 6. Situation in August 2010 (after the party consolidation) Opinion-polls August 2010: Possible division of seats in the Parliament 35 30 30 25 19 20 The 'Unity' Group 15 24 seats 9 10 Alliance "For a TB/LNNK 5 Good Latvia“ All for Latvia 9 seats 9 seats 0 For Human Union Greens' and Latvian First Peoples' Party "Society for New Era (EPP) The Civic TB/ LNNK All For Latvia! Right in "Harmony Farmer's Party/ Latvia's (EPP) Different Union (EPP) (ECR) United Latvia Centre" (S&D) Union Way (ALDE) Poltics" (Verts/ ALE) (Verts/ALE)
  • 7. Possible Government coalition Option I – large left-wing pro-Russian coalition 67 seats
  • 8. Possible Government coalition Option II - left-wing pro-Russian coalition 58 seats
  • 9. Possible Government coalition Option III - Mixed coalition 54 seats
  • 10. Possible Government coalition Option IV – Only possibility for a conservative and centre-right coalition 52 seats