2011 electoral reform referendum opinion poll report (1)

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This opinion poll was designed to gauge the views of those living in Wales of the forthcoming referendum on electoral reform on 5th May 2011.

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2011 electoral reform referendum opinion poll report (1)

  1. 1. ELECTORAL REFORM REFERENDUM OPINION POLL 2011APRIL 2011Presented by: John Hurst, Director of RMG:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RETel: 02920 435800E-mail: john.hurst@rmg-uk.co.ukWeb: www.rmg-uk.co.uk
  2. 2. INTRODUCTIONThis opinion poll was designed to gauge the views of those living in Wales of the forthcoming referendum on electoral reform on 5th May 2011.METHODOLOGYThe opinion poll consisted of 960 structured telephone interviews, conducted with Welsh voters between 4th April and 5th April 2011 and 44 surveyscompleted online within the same timeframe. This totals 1004 surveys.The telephone interviews were conducted at RMG:Clarity’s in-house CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) Unit. Respondents werecontacted during the day and in the evening.For the telephone survey target numbers of interviews were set according to parliamentary constituency population. After interviewing, the onlinedata was merged with the telephone data and the survey was weighted by parliamentary constituency, socio-economic group, gender, age group,household tenure and Welsh language skills in order to provide the most representative result possible.Full weighted and unweighted tabulations are included in this report.The following discussion uses the weighted results.
  3. 3. DISCUSSIONTable 1 shows that only 31.9% of respondents thought that the government had provided them with sufficient information to make an informeddecision on electoral reform. 60% thought that they had not been provided with enough information.Table 1 Do you think that the government has provided you with % enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Yes 31.9% No 60.0% Dont know 8.1%Base: All respondents (997)Table 2 shows whether respondents intend to vote for first-past-the-post or alternative vote in the referendum. It also shows the voting intention splitby whether the respondent thinks they have enough information to make a decision. This shows that overall, nearly a third of respondents (29.8%) donot know which electoral system they prefer, whilst 45.2% will vote for first-past-the-post and 25.0% for alternative vote. In this table, those withenough information appear to be significantly more likely to vote for first-past-the-post than those without enough information (54.1% against 42.1%).However, this is because of the high number of people without enough information who do not know which they will vote for.Table 2 In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Those with enough Those without enough All respondents information information First-past-the-post 45.2% 54.1% 42.1% Alternative vote 25.0% 31.7% 22.3% Dont know 29.8% 14.2% 35.6%Base: All respondents (997)/ those who have enough information to make a decision (318)/ those who do not have enough information to make a decision (598)To counteract this, Table 3 shows the results with the ‘don’t know’ responses excluded. It is reasonable to assume that those who do not know whichway they will vote will not vote in the referendum, and that this will provide a more accurate picture of voting intention.
  4. 4. Table 3 In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? (Excluding Don’t know) Those with enough Those without enough All respondents information information First-past-the-post 64.4% 63.1% 65.4% Alternative vote 35.6% 36.9% 34.6%Base: All respondents (700)/ those who have enough information to make a decision (273)/ those who do not have enough information to make a decision (385)64.4% of respondents will vote for first-past-the-post, whilst 35.6% will vote for alternative vote. Removing the ‘don’t know’ responses, it is clear thatwhether the respondents think they have been provided with enough information to make a decision has remarkably little impact on voting intention.36.9% of those with enough information said they will vote for alternative vote compared to 34.6% of those without enough information. Whilst thismay be indicative, the difference is not statistically significant.Taken together, this shows that a large section of the population do not know how they will vote on 5th May. However, it also shows that those whoare more likely to vote in the referendum (i.e. those with an opinion one way or the other) appear to have made their decision without the need for anyinformation from government.
  5. 5. WEIGHTED TABULATIONS
  6. 6. Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? SEG Gender Base: All A/B C1 C2 D/E Refused Male Female respondents 997 186 342 199 240 29 467 529 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 318 66 100 59 85 8 164 154 Yes 31.9% 35.5% 29.2% 29.8% 35.3% 27.5% 35.0% 29.2% 598 111 219 119 131 16 273 325 No 60.0% 59.6% 64.1% 60.0% 54.8% 55.9% 58.4% 61.3% 81 9 23 20 24 5 31 50 Dont know 8.1% 4.9% 6.7% 10.2% 9.8% 16.6% 6.6% 9.5% (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Age Tenure Rented from 65 years or Rented from Council or 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Refused Owner occupied Other above private landlord Housing Association 27 51 110 155 224 409 20 803 50 109 35 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 3 12 39 44 75 139 6 259 14 37 8 Yes 10.1% 22.7% 35.4% 28.4% 33.6% 34.0% 30.5% 32.3% 27.5% 33.9% 23.2% 21 35 64 96 136 233 12 485 34 62 17 No 79.3% 68.2% 58.4% 61.6% 60.8% 57.1% 59.3% 60.4% 67.4% 56.9% 49.9% 3 5 7 15 13 36 2 59 3 10 9 Dont know 10.5% 9.1% 6.2% 9.9% 5.7% 8.9% 10.2% 7.3% 5.0% 9.3% 26.9% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  7. 7. Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads Other No skills in spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes combination of Welsh only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh skills 89 26 21 155 38 667 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 27 9 5 49 12 216 Yes 30.9% 33.1% 24.5% 31.6% 31.5% 32.3% 54 12 14 93 25 399 No 61.0% 44.0% 66.0% 60.3% 65.8% 59.9% 7 6 2 12 1 52 Dont know 8.1% 22.9% 9.4% 8.0% 2.7% 7.8% (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Likelihood to vote (1 is Not going to vote and 10 is Certain to vote) 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Dont know vote vote 55 13 7 12 62 33 33 87 40 639 14 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15 2 3 0 14 8 6 29 13 227 2 Yes 27.0% 13.8% 38.5% .0% 22.4% 24.9% 16.8% 33.0% 33.9% 35.4% 14.0% 28 11 3 12 38 23 25 52 24 370 10 No 50.8% 79.8% 48.7% 100.0% 61.9% 70.0% 75.8% 60.0% 60.8% 58.0% 67.9% 12 1 1 0 10 2 2 6 2 42 3 Dont know 22.2% 6.4% 12.8% .0% 15.7% 5.1% 7.4% 7.0% 5.3% 6.6% 18.1%2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  8. 8. Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Constituency Base: All Alyn and Brecon and Aberavon Aberconwy Arfon Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North respondents Deeside Radnorshire Base: All respondents 997 22 19 26 21 23 23 26 27 27 28 (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Constituency Carmarthen Carmarthen Cardiff South Dwyfor Cardiff West East and West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Gower and Penarth Meirionnydd Dinefwr Pembrokeshire Base: All respondents 34 28 28 26 24 25 26 22 24 22 24 (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire Base: All respondents 23 27 24 25 20 28 22 25 24 26 25 22 (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Constituency Vale of Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Wrexham Ynys Môn Glamorgan Base: All respondents 27 34 26 24 27 24 20 (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  9. 9. Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Constituency Base: All Alyn and Brecon and Aberavon Aberconwy Arfon Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North respondents Deeside Radnorshire Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 318 8 4 13 9 7 9 10 8 10 10 Yes 31.9% 38.6% 22.2% 49.3% 40.0% 29.1% 38.1% 36.6% 29.0% 38.5% 36.3% 598 13 13 12 13 15 12 15 18 14 15 No 60.0% 61.4% 67.8% 46.1% 60.0% 67.0% 49.8% 56.6% 64.7% 51.0% 53.7% 81 0 2 1 0 1 3 2 2 3 3 Dont know 8.1% .0% 10.0% 4.6% .0% 3.9% 12.0% 6.8% 6.3% 10.5% 10.0% (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Constituency Carmarthen Carmarthen Cardiff South Dwyfor Cardiff West East and West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Gower and Penarth Meirionnydd Dinefwr Pembrokeshire Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11 9 7 4 9 5 6 7 8 5 10 Yes 32.6% 32.9% 23.8% 13.6% 36.9% 21.9% 22.3% 31.8% 33.3% 22.8% 41.9% 20 17 20 23 12 18 16 15 11 16 13 No 58.9% 62.9% 69.3% 86.4% 48.9% 73.8% 63.5% 68.2% 47.0% 72.4% 54.5% 3 1 2 0 3 1 4 0 5 1 1 Dont know 8.5% 4.2% 6.9% .0% 14.2% 4.3% 14.2% .0% 19.7% 4.8% 3.6% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  10. 10. Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 10 11 4 4 10 6 5 6 7 10 9 7 Yes 43.5% 41.9% 17.6% 14.8% 47.6% 21.5% 22.3% 22.6% 27.3% 37.9% 35.5% 30.5% 11 11 17 19 10 18 17 19 16 15 16 13 No 48.7% 41.1% 69.5% 77.9% 48.0% 65.7% 73.5% 74.2% 68.5% 58.7% 64.5% 61.1% 2 5 3 2 1 4 1 1 1 1 0 2 Dont know 7.8% 17.0% 12.9% 7.3% 4.4% 12.8% 4.2% 3.2% 4.2% 3.5% .0% 8.4% (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Constituency Vale of Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Wrexham Ynys Môn Glamorgan Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 12 8 6 9 12 6 9 Yes 43.3% 23.9% 25.2% 38.8% 44.7% 26.4% 44.8% 13 23 16 10 13 14 6 No 49.6% 67.7% 64.0% 42.4% 48.2% 55.8% 31.5% 2 3 3 5 2 4 5 Dont know 7.1% 8.4% 10.8% 18.8% 7.1% 17.8% 23.7% Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? SEG Gender Base: All A/B C1 C2 D/E Refused Male Female respondents 997 186 342 199 240 29 467 529 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  11. 11. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Age Tenure Rented from 65 years or Rented from Council or 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Refused Owner occupied Other above private landlord Housing Association 27 51 110 155 224 409 20 803 50 109 35 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads Other No skills in spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes combination of Welsh only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh skills 89 26 21 155 38 667 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Likelihood to vote (1 is Not going to vote and 10 is Certain to vote) 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Dont know vote vote 55 13 7 12 62 33 33 87 40 639 14 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  12. 12. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? SEG Gender Base: All A/B C1 C2 D/E Refused Male Female respondents 451 89 153 94 102 13 225 226 First-past-the-post 45.2% 47.8% 44.7% 47.3% 42.5% 43.7% 48.2% 42.7% 249 54 94 45 54 3 141 108 Alternative vote 25.0% 28.9% 27.4% 22.4% 22.5% 9.8% 30.2% 20.4% 297 44 96 60 84 13 101 196 Dont know 29.8% 23.3% 27.9% 30.4% 34.9% 46.5% 21.6% 37.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Age Tenure Rented from 65 years or Rented from Council or 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Refused Owner occupied Other above private landlord Housing Association 2 15 37 59 109 219 9 385 13 42 11 First-past-the-post 8.9% 29.4% 34.0% 38.1% 48.7% 53.5% 45.4% 47.9% 26.6% 38.3% 31.8% 16 16 33 46 49 87 2 196 18 28 7 Alternative vote 61.5% 31.1% 29.9% 29.8% 21.7% 21.2% 9.9% 24.4% 36.4% 26.1% 19.4% 8 20 40 50 66 104 9 222 18 39 17 Dont know 29.6% 39.5% 36.1% 32.0% 29.6% 25.3% 44.7% 27.7% 37.0% 35.6% 48.8% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  13. 13. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads Other No skills in spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes combination of Welsh only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh skills 44 15 10 52 12 318 First-past-the-post 49.6% 58.4% 45.8% 33.4% 32.0% 47.6% 21 4 3 53 12 157 Alternative vote 23.4% 13.7% 11.9% 34.1% 31.8% 23.5% 24 7 9 50 14 192 Dont know 27.0% 27.9% 42.3% 32.5% 36.2% 28.8% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Likelihood to vote (1 is Not going to vote and 10 is Certain to vote) 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Dont know vote vote 15 4 4 3 18 9 13 41 17 323 4 First-past-the-post 27.5% 32.5% 52.4% 22.7% 28.9% 27.7% 39.1% 46.4% 43.4% 50.6% 26.4% 7 7 0 5 14 11 11 23 10 157 5 Alternative vote 12.1% 54.1% .0% 39.4% 22.8% 33.3% 32.9% 26.1% 24.4% 24.5% 34.5% 33 2 3 5 30 13 9 24 13 159 6 Dont know 60.4% 13.4% 47.6% 37.9% 48.3% 39.0% 28.0% 27.5% 32.3% 24.9% 39.0% Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Base: All Alyn and Brecon and Aberavon Aberconwy Arfon Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North respondents Deeside Radnorshire 997 22 19 26 21 23 23 26 27 27 28 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  14. 14. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Carmarthen Carmarthen Cardiff South Dwyfor Cardiff West East and West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Gower and Penarth Meirionnydd Dinefwr Pembrokeshire 34 28 28 26 24 25 26 22 24 22 24 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire 23 27 24 25 20 28 22 25 24 26 25 22 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Vale of Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Wrexham Ynys Môn Glamorgan 27 34 26 24 27 24 20 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  15. 15. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Base: All Alyn and Brecon and Aberavon Aberconwy Arfon Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Cardiff North respondents Deeside Radnorshire 451 10 7 12 7 14 7 16 13 7 16 First-past-the-post 45.2% 46.2% 36.6% 44.3% 32.2% 60.5% 29.7% 60.3% 47.1% 26.9% 55.8% 249 8 3 9 10 3 5 3 7 9 4 Alternative vote 25.0% 36.1% 14.6% 33.2% 48.1% 12.5% 20.4% 10.9% 27.4% 34.1% 15.0% 297 4 9 6 4 6 12 8 7 10 8 Dont know 29.8% 17.7% 48.8% 22.5% 19.7% 27.0% 49.9% 28.8% 25.4% 39.1% 29.2% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Carmarthen Carmarthen Cardiff South Dwyfor Cardiff West East and West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn Gower and Penarth Meirionnydd Dinefwr Pembrokeshire 11 16 5 9 12 7 13 11 13 9 14 First-past-the-post 33.0% 58.0% 19.1% 33.1% 49.2% 27.8% 51.5% 50.5% 55.9% 40.5% 57.3% 6 9 11 8 8 9 3 4 5 3 6 Alternative vote 18.7% 31.8% 37.4% 31.1% 32.5% 38.2% 11.0% 17.2% 21.2% 14.3% 26.3% 16 3 12 9 4 8 10 7 5 10 4 Dont know 48.2% 10.1% 43.5% 35.8% 18.3% 33.9% 37.5% 32.3% 23.0% 45.2% 16.4% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  16. 16. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Preseli Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Pontypridd Rhondda and Rhymney re Pembrokeshire 9 11 16 12 12 12 15 14 9 13 9 12 First-past-the-post 41.3% 40.7% 65.8% 47.6% 57.8% 42.1% 65.5% 54.9% 38.2% 52.4% 37.3% 56.4% 4 10 2 6 3 4 4 7 8 4 10 4 Alternative vote 17.1% 37.6% 8.5% 25.7% 15.1% 13.0% 17.8% 29.7% 31.8% 14.6% 40.4% 19.1% 9 6 6 7 5 12 4 4 7 8 6 5 Dont know 41.6% 21.7% 25.7% 26.7% 27.1% 44.8% 16.7% 15.4% 30.0% 32.9% 22.3% 24.4% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Vale of Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Wrexham Ynys Môn Glamorgan 12 11 12 11 14 8 11 First-past-the-post 44.8% 32.9% 47.5% 45.8% 52.1% 32.9% 53.3% 11 10 6 6 8 5 3 Alternative vote 40.7% 30.4% 22.1% 26.9% 30.4% 20.8% 15.7% 4 12 8 7 5 11 6 Dont know 14.5% 36.7% 30.4% 27.3% 17.5% 46.3% 31.0% Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? SEG Gender Base: Those who have enough A/B C1 C2 D/E Refused Male Female information to make a decision 318 66 100 59 85 8 164 154 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  17. 17. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Age 65 years or 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Refused above 3 12 39 44 75 139 6 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Tenure Rented from Rented from Council or Owner occupied Other private landlord Housing Association 259 14 37 8 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads Other No skills in spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes combination of Welsh only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh skills 27 9 5 49 12 216 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Likelihood to vote (1 is Not going to vote and 10 is Certain to vote) 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 Dont know vote vote 15 2 3 14 8 6 29 13 227 2 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  18. 18. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? SEG Gender Base: Those who have enough A/B C1 C2 D/E Refused Male Female information to make a decision 172 41 54 31 42 5 93 80 First-past-the-post 54.1% 61.5% 54.4% 51.5% 49.1% 63.1% 56.6% 51.5% 101 23 34 17 25 2 55 45 Alternative vote 31.7% 34.1% 34.3% 28.5% 29.5% 24.2% 33.9% 29.3% 45 3 11 12 18 1 16 30 Dont know 14.2% 4.4% 11.3% 20.0% 21.4% 12.7% 9.5% 19.1% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Age 65 years or 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Refused above 0 6 14 19 41 89 4 First-past-the-post .0% 47.8% 35.7% 43.2% 54.2% 63.8% 66.7% 3 6 15 18 24 33 1 Alternative vote 100.0% 52.2% 39.7% 41.8% 32.5% 23.4% 16.6% 0 0 10 7 10 18 1 Dont know .0% .0% 24.7% 15.1% 13.3% 12.8% 16.7% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  19. 19. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Tenure Rented from Rented from Council or Owner occupied Other private landlord Housing Association 146 5 18 4 First-past-the-post 56.2% 33.8% 48.1% 49.8% 77 8 13 3 Alternative vote 29.8% 56.5% 33.9% 37.7% 36 1 7 1 Dont know 14.0% 9.7% 18.0% 12.5% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads Other No skills in spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes combination of Welsh only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh skills 12 7 3 27 3 122 First-past-the-post 42.0% 79.1% 48.7% 54.4% 21.1% 56.6% 12 1 2 18 4 65 Alternative vote 43.3% 10.2% 33.2% 36.1% 31.5% 30.0% 4 1 1 5 6 29 Dont know 14.7% 10.8% 18.1% 9.6% 47.4% 13.4% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  20. 20. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Likelihood to vote (1 is Not going to vote and 10 is Certain to vote) 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 Dont know vote vote 9 0 3 4 1 3 13 8 130 2 First-past-the-post 57.2% .0% 100.0% 26.7% 12.7% 49.4% 44.0% 61.8% 57.6% 100.0% 3 1 0 7 5 3 12 4 66 0 Alternative vote 20.7% 48.9% .0% 47.3% 64.9% 50.6% 41.8% 30.1% 29.1% .0% 3 1 0 4 2 0 4 1 30 0 Dont know 22.2% 51.1% .0% 26.0% 22.4% .0% 14.2% 8.1% 13.4% .0% Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Base: Those who have enough Alyn and Brecon and Aberavon Aberconwy Arfon Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central information to Deeside Radnorshire make a decision 318 8 4 13 9 7 9 10 8 10 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 172 5 2 5 2 5 4 8 4 1 First-past-the-post 54.1% 56.2% 58.9% 35.3% 24.3% 70.6% 47.4% 87.2% 49.6% 8.6% 101 4 1 6 6 1 2 0 3 6 Alternative vote 31.7% 43.8% 22.0% 47.9% 75.7% 15.1% 21.2% .0% 35.9% 62.0% 45 0 1 2 0 1 3 1 1 3 Dont know 14.2% .0% 19.1% 16.8% .0% 14.3% 31.4% 12.8% 14.5% 29.5% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  21. 21. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Carmarthen Carmarthen Cardiff South Cardiff North Cardiff West East and West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn and Penarth Dinefwr Pembrokeshire 10 11 9 7 4 9 5 6 7 8 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 8 4 7 3 1 6 2 6 4 4 First-past-the-post 82.4% 34.9% 80.1% 39.3% 22.8% 67.5% 34.0% 100.0% 59.0% 48.7% 1 4 2 1 2 2 4 0 1 4 Alternative vote 9.0% 32.0% 19.9% 12.9% 52.2% 22.1% 66.0% .0% 12.9% 51.3% 1 4 0 3 1 1 0 0 2 0 Dont know 8.5% 33.1% .0% 47.9% 25.0% 10.4% .0% .0% 28.1% .0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Dwyfor Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Meirionnydd and Rhymney re 5 10 10 11 4 4 10 6 5 6 7 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4 5 5 5 3 2 5 5 3 2 2 First-past-the-post 76.1% 54.5% 48.9% 41.3% 74.7% 47.7% 47.6% 82.2% 55.7% 31.3% 28.6% 1 5 2 7 1 1 2 0 2 3 4 Alternative vote 23.9% 45.5% 21.3% 58.7% 25.3% 25.1% 22.8% .0% 44.3% 50.9% 58.5% 0 0 3 0 0 1 3 1 0 1 1 Dont know .0% .0% 29.8% .0% .0% 27.2% 29.6% 17.8% .0% 17.8% 12.9% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  22. 22. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Preseli Vale of Pontypridd Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Wrexham Ynys Môn Pembrokeshire Glamorgan 10 9 7 12 8 6 9 12 6 9 Base: Those who have enough information to make a decision 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 7 5 6 4 6 5 6 6 4 5 First-past-the-post 67.3% 53.1% 86.7% 38.5% 68.8% 72.0% 60.5% 54.1% 58.1% 50.5% 0 4 1 5 2 2 3 4 1 2 Alternative vote .0% 46.9% 13.3% 45.7% 19.4% 28.0% 30.5% 37.4% 15.6% 24.1% 3 0 0 2 1 0 1 1 2 2 Dont know 32.7% .0% .0% 15.9% 11.7% .0% 9.1% 8.5% 26.3% 25.4% Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? SEG Gender Base: Those who do not have enough A/B C1 C2 D/E Refused Male Female information to make a decision Base: Those who do not have 598 111 219 119 131 16 273 325 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 252 48 93 53 50 8 121 130 First-past-the-post 42.1% 42.8% 42.6% 44.3% 38.0% 47.1% 44.4% 40.1% 133 27 53 25 27 1 78 55 Alternative vote 22.3% 24.6% 24.1% 21.0% 20.6% 5.7% 28.7% 16.9% 213 36 73 41 54 8 73 140 Dont know 35.6% 32.6% 33.3% 34.6% 41.4% 47.2% 26.8% 43.0% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  23. 23. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Age 65 years or 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Refused above Base: Those who do not have 21 35 64 96 136 233 12 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 2 10 22 36 63 114 5 First-past-the-post 11.2% 27.2% 34.7% 37.7% 46.1% 48.6% 42.2% 14 10 14 23 22 49 1 Alternative vote 64.8% 28.1% 22.2% 24.1% 16.4% 21.0% 8.2% 5 16 28 37 51 71 6 Dont know 24.0% 44.6% 43.1% 38.2% 37.5% 30.4% 49.6% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Tenure Rented from Rented from Council or Owner occupied Other private landlord Housing Association Base: Those who do not have 485 34 62 17 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 217 7 21 6 First-past-the-post 44.8% 22.2% 33.6% 35.2% 104 10 16 3 Alternative vote 21.5% 30.9% 25.7% 16.3% 163 16 25 8 Dont know 33.7% 46.9% 40.7% 48.5% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  24. 24. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads Other No skills in spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes combination of Welsh only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh skills Base: Those who do not have 54 12 14 93 25 399 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 29 6 5 23 9 180 First-past-the-post 53.2% 50.6% 37.0% 24.8% 34.4% 45.1% 8 2 1 33 8 81 Alternative vote 14.7% 16.1% 5.7% 35.5% 33.3% 20.3% 17 4 8 37 8 138 Dont know 32.2% 33.3% 57.3% 39.8% 32.3% 34.6% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Likelihood to vote (1 is Not going to vote and 10 is Certain to vote) 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Dont know vote vote Base: Those who do not have 28 11 3 12 38 23 25 52 24 370 10 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 7 4 1 3 11 6 10 24 9 175 2 First-past-the-post 23.7% 40.7% 28.5% 22.7% 27.6% 27.7% 40.6% 46.0% 36.9% 47.2% 18.3% 3 6 0 5 5 6 7 10 5 84 3 Alternative vote 9.3% 59.3% .0% 39.4% 12.5% 24.5% 28.5% 18.8% 19.6% 22.7% 33.0% 19 0 2 5 23 11 8 18 10 112 5 Dont know 67.0% .0% 71.5% 37.9% 59.9% 47.7% 30.9% 35.1% 43.5% 30.1% 48.7%2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  25. 25. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Base: Those who do not have Alyn and Brecon and enough Aberavon Aberconwy Arfon Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Central Deeside Radnorshire information to make a decision Base: Those who do not have 598 13 13 12 13 15 12 15 18 14 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 252 5 3 6 5 8 2 7 8 5 First-past-the-post 42.1% 39.9% 27.2% 48.4% 37.5% 53.8% 16.2% 50.1% 45.8% 39.8% 133 4 1 2 4 2 3 2 4 2 Alternative vote 22.3% 31.3% 7.0% 20.8% 29.6% 12.1% 24.8% 12.6% 21.4% 12.2% 213 4 8 4 4 5 7 6 6 7 Dont know 35.6% 28.9% 65.7% 30.8% 32.9% 34.1% 59.0% 37.3% 32.8% 48.0% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Carmarthen Carmarthen Cardiff South Cardiff North Cardiff West East and West and South Ceredigion Clwyd South Clwyd West Cynon Valley Delyn and Penarth Dinefwr Pembrokeshire Base: Those who do not have 15 20 17 20 23 12 18 16 15 11 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 7 7 8 3 8 5 4 6 7 7 First-past-the-post 48.1% 36.8% 43.7% 14.0% 34.7% 41.4% 21.8% 34.2% 46.6% 66.5% 3 3 7 9 6 6 6 3 3 1 Alternative vote 21.9% 14.1% 40.2% 44.2% 27.8% 49.9% 32.3% 17.3% 19.2% 8.7% 5 10 3 8 8 1 8 8 5 3 Dont know 30.0% 49.1% 16.1% 41.8% 37.5% 8.7% 46.0% 48.5% 34.2% 24.9% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  26. 26. Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Dwyfor Merthyr Tydfil Montgomeryshi Gower Islwyn Llanelli Monmouth Neath Newport East Newport West Ogmore Meirionnydd and Rhymney re Base: Those who do not have 16 13 11 11 17 19 10 18 17 19 16 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 4 7 4 4 12 9 7 6 12 11 7 First-past-the-post 25.4% 56.6% 33.2% 39.7% 70.5% 47.3% 73.2% 33.3% 72.2% 60.1% 44.3% 2 2 1 2 1 5 1 3 2 5 3 Alternative vote 12.2% 13.2% 8.0% 16.6% 5.8% 28.3% 8.8% 15.0% 10.8% 24.6% 17.0% 10 4 7 5 4 5 2 9 3 3 6 Dont know 62.4% 30.1% 58.8% 43.7% 23.6% 24.5% 18.0% 51.7% 17.0% 15.3% 38.7% (c… Q3c. In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? Constituency Preseli Vale of Pontypridd Rhondda Swansea East Swansea West Torfaen Vale of Clwyd Wrexham Ynys Môn Pembrokeshire Glamorgan Base: Those who do not have 15 16 13 13 23 16 10 13 14 6 enough information to make a 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% decision 7 5 5 7 6 7 4 8 3 5 First-past-the-post 45.9% 28.5% 35.3% 50.0% 24.4% 40.4% 43.6% 57.9% 23.9% 83.4% 3 6 3 6 8 3 3 3 4 0 Alternative vote 19.0% 36.8% 24.7% 42.2% 33.5% 18.2% 27.2% 20.7% 29.9% .0% 5 6 5 1 10 7 3 3 6 1 Dont know 35.1% 34.6% 40.0% 7.8% 42.1% 41.3% 29.2% 21.4% 46.2% 16.6%2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
  27. 27. UNWEIGHTED TABULATIONS
  28. 28. Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? SEG Gender Base: All A/B C1 C2 D/E Refused Male Female respondents 1004 196 353 209 216 30 469 535 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 324 71 104 62 79 8 168 156 Yes 32.3% 36.2% 29.5% 29.7% 36.6% 26.7% 35.8% 29.2% 599 116 225 124 117 17 269 330 No 59.7% 59.2% 63.7% 59.3% 54.2% 56.7% 57.4% 61.7% 81 9 24 23 20 5 32 49 Dont know 8.1% 4.6% 6.8% 11.0% 9.3% 16.7% 6.8% 9.2% (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Age Tenure Rented from 65 years or Rented from Council or 18 - 24 years 25 - 34 years 35 - 44 years 45 - 54 years 55 - 64 years Refused Owner occupied Other above private landlord Housing Association 10 31 101 154 241 447 20 842 33 97 32 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1 7 36 43 81 150 6 274 9 33 8 Yes 10.0% 22.6% 35.6% 27.9% 33.6% 33.6% 30.0% 32.5% 27.3% 34.0% 25.0% 8 21 59 96 146 257 12 506 22 55 16 No 80.0% 67.7% 58.4% 62.3% 60.6% 57.5% 60.0% 60.1% 66.7% 56.7% 50.0% 1 3 6 15 14 40 2 62 2 9 8 Dont know 10.0% 9.7% 5.9% 9.7% 5.8% 8.9% 10.0% 7.4% 6.1% 9.3% 25.0% (c…2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
  29. 29. Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Welsh Language Skills Understands Speaks but does Speaks and Speaks reads Other No skills in spoken Welsh not read or reads but does and writes combination of Welsh only write Welsh not write Welsh Welsh skills 99 27 20 147 40 671 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 31 9 6 50 13 215 Yes 31.3% 33.3% 30.0% 34.0% 32.5% 32.0% 60 12 12 87 26 402 No 60.6% 44.4% 60.0% 59.2% 65.0% 59.9% 8 6 2 10 1 54 Dont know 8.1% 22.2% 10.0% 6.8% 2.5% 8.0% (c… Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform? Likelihood to vote (1 is Not going to vote and 10 is Certain to vote) 1 - Not going to 10 - Certain to 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Dont know vote vote 50 10 7 9 62 33 33 87 40 658 15 Base: All respondents 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13 2 3 0 14 7 6 29 14 234 2 Yes 26.0% 20.0% 42.9% .0% 22.6% 21.2% 18.2% 33.3% 35.0% 35.6% 13.3% 27 7 3 9 38 24 25 52 24 380 10 No 54.0% 70.0% 42.9% 100.0% 61.3% 72.7% 75.8% 59.8% 60.0% 57.8% 66.7% 10 1 1 0 10 2 2 6 2 44 3 Dont know 20.0% 10.0% 14.3% .0% 16.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.9% 5.0% 6.7% 20.0%2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations

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