Causes, impacts & management of eq and floods in pakistan


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Presented by Engr. M. Rizwan Riaz And Engr. M. Asim Shoaib

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Causes, impacts & management of eq and floods in pakistan

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  2. 2. CAUSES, IMPACTS AND MANAGEMENT OF EARTHQUAKES AND FLOODS IN PAKISTAN Presenters: Muhammad Rizwan Riaz Muhammad Asim Shoaib National Conference on Causes, Impacts and Management of Disasters 2
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION  Disasters have an enormous and significant negative impact on development of key sectors of economy like agriculture, infrastructure, housing, health, and education and above all the environment  They result in a serious social and economic set-back to the sustainable development  Disasters also pose threat to increasing poverty and resultantly backslide the national development targets 3
  4. 4. INTRODUCTION (Cont.)  Pakistan has been through a number of major earthquakes such as the earthquakes of Hunza 1974, Muzaffarabad 2005, Ziarat 2008 and Dalbandin 2011.  Similarly, during recent years Pakistan has suffered from major floods in July 2010 and August 2011.  Current study provides an overview of the causes and impacts of major earthquakes and floods in Pakistan since its creation.  Various management options and safety measures are discussed to reduce the impact of these calamities. 4
  5. 5. METHODOLOGY  Technical and impact details of major earthquakes and floods in Pakistan since 1947, have been analyzed qualitatively.  Data have been collected from various authentic reports about these hazards.  Data about various management options and safety measures possible for these hazards have been collected and applied as precautionary measures for these calamities in Pakistan. 5
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  7. 7. Earthquake  An earthquake is the vibration of the earth's surface that follows a release of energy in the earth's crust.  This energy can be generated by  sudden dislocation of segments of the crust  by a volcanic eruption  by manmade explosions  Most destructive quakes, however, are caused by dislocations of the crust.  The underground origin of an earthquake is called “focus”  The point on which an earthquake originates on the surface is called “epicenter” 7
  8. 8. Causes of Earthquakes  The earth is believed to be divided into more than a dozen plates, which are floating on the mantle. This theory is called plate tectonics.  Earthquakes usually occur at places where two plates meet, called faults.  When the pressure between two plates is too great for them to be held in place. The underground rocks then snap, sending shock waves out in all directions called seismic waves.  Many areas of Pakistan are susceptible to earthquakes as it lies at the junction of Indian, Eurasian and Arabian plate boundaries. 8
  9. 9. Causes of Earthquakes (cont.) 9
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  12. 12. Earthquakes in Pakistan 12
  13. 13. HISTORY Year Location Magnitude Deaths 893 Shahbandar, Sindh 8.0 1 50 000 1668 Shahbandar, Sindh 7.6 50 000 1819 Allahband, Sindh 7.5 3 200 1827 Lahore, Punjab 7.8 1 000 1935 Alijan(Quetta), Balochistan 7.7 40 000 1945 Balochistan 7.8 4 000 1974 Hunza, KPK 6.2 5 300 2005 Muzafferabad, AJK 7.8 80 000 2008 Ziarat, Balochistan 6.4 215 2011 Dalbandin, Balochistan 7.2 NIL Source: JANG Magazine (Prof. Mona Liza) 13
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  15. 15. Earthquake Details Magnitude 7.8 Date/Time Saturday, October 08, 2005 at 08:52:37 AM Location Muzafferabad, AJK Depth 26 km (16.2 miles) Distance 105 km (65 miles) NE of ISLAMABAD, Pakistan Magnitude 6.2 Date/Time Saturday, December 28, 1974 at 5:11:43 PM Location Hunza, Hazara and Swat Districts, KPK Depth 33 km (20.5 miles) Distance 100 miles (160km) North of ISLAMABAD, Pakistan 15
  16. 16. Source: www.earthquake.usgs.gov16
  17. 17. One of the 10 Worst Disasters in the History of Pakistan Source: www.listphobia.com17
  18. 18. Losses  5,300 Dead (According to World Bank Report)  17,000 injured  A total of 97,000 were left homeless  The main road leading into the area was blocked for about 25 miles (40 km) by landslides and rock falls  Most of the destruction was centered around the village of “Pattan” which was almost completely destroyed. 18
  19. 19. 2005 EARTHQUAKE (Muzafferabad, AJK) 19
  20. 20. Earthquake Details Magnitude 7.8 Date/Time Saturday, October 08, 2005 at 08:52:37 AM Location Muzafferabad, AJK Depth 26 km (16.2 miles) Distance 100 km (65 miles) NE of ISLAMABAD, Pakistan 20
  21. 21. Source: 21
  22. 22. 13th Deadliest Earthquake Source: 22
  23. 23. Losses Source: 23
  24. 24. Losses  87,000 Dead (According to World Bank Report)  100,000 injured  171,884 houses completely demolished  4 Million people homeless in 1,083 villages of Azad Kashmir  In Kashmir, the districts of Muzaffarabad, Bagh and Rawlakot were the most affected. 24
  26. 26. Earthquake Details Magnitude 6.4 Date/Time Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 03:39:23 AM Location Ziarat, Balochistan Depth 15 km (9.3 miles) Distance 600 km (370 miles)SW of ISLAMABAD, Pakistan 26
  27. 27. Source: www. 27
  28. 28. Source: www. 28
  29. 29. Losses Source: 29
  30. 30. Losses 215 confirmed Dead More than 200 injured 15,000 people homeless Ziarat district, one of the main tourist spots in Baluchistan, was the most affected region. 30
  32. 32. Earthquake Details Magnitude 7.2 Date/Time Friday, January 19, 2011 at 01:23 AM Location Dalbandin, Balochistan Depth 84 km (52.5 miles) Distance 45 kilometers west of Dalbandin in Balochistan. 32
  33. 33. Source: www. 33
  34. 34. Source: www. 34
  35. 35. Losses  No deaths reported  About 200 mud houses, including some government offices, were reported damaged in Dalbandin area 35
  36. 36. Causes of Losses  These losses could have been reduced if proper consideration would have been given to the seismic forces during the design of structures in these areas.  For 2005 earthquake the post-earthquake studies reveal that many structures including Margalla Tower, Islamabad were designed without proper consideration of earthquake forces.  Many structures were constructed without proper foundations, and the proper reinforcement details and lap splices were not provided.  Many structures were overloaded beyond their design loads and hence, could not sustain the earthquake.  Illiteracy of people, poverty and lack of awareness are the major hurdles for proper design of structures and the use of good quality materials in construction. 36
  37. 37. Management Options  Implementation of seismic provisions-2007 of Building Code of Pakistan, for design and construction of structures in Pakistan.  Increasing awareness among people about how to respond during, and survive during and after an earthquake by arranging  Seminars  Workshops  Training programs  Using higher factors of safety for hospitals, emergency centers, school buildings and other such critical structures.  Introduction of Earthquake proof construction techniques in the seismically active areas of Pakistan, which are being used in developed countries 37
  38. 38. Management Options (cont.)  Strengthening the existing structures which are vulnerable to damage by earthquake using some suitable retrofitting technique  Strengthening of members by using some external materials such as  Reinforced Concrete Jacketing  Steel Plate Bonding and Jacketing  Steel section caging  CFRP (Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer) Bonding and Jacketing  Shotcreting  Strengthening of wall intersections  Grouting with cement or epoxy 38
  39. 39. Management Options (cont.)  Strengthening of structures by adding new structural elements such as  Shear walls  Bracings  Buttresses  Strengthening by cross wall 39
  40. 40. 40 Reinforced Concrete Jacketing Steel Plate JacketingCFRP Jacketing
  41. 41. 41 Strengthening of Wall Intersections Steel Section Caging
  42. 42. 42 Shear Wall Buttresses Cross Bracing Cross Wall
  43. 43. Discussion  Maximum damage is caused if earthquakes occur in densely populated areas and at shallower depths.  The earthquakes of 2005 and 2011 are having nearly equal magnitudes but the former caused havoc as it struck the densely populated areas of Muzaffarabad and was having lesser depth (26 km) while the later hit the sparsely populated areas of Balochistan with greater depth (84km) and caused only minor damages.  Similarly Hunza-1974 earthquake was having magnitude significantly lesser than Dalbandin-2011 earthquake but because of its lesser depth and the greater population density of affected areas, it caused significantly greater damage.  The 2011 earthquake was a hazard while earthquake of 2005 was a disaster. Hazards can become disaster if earthquake occur in densely populated areas or with origin at shallower depth. 43
  44. 44. FLOODS 44
  45. 45. Flood  Flood is an overflow of water that submerges land which is normally dry.  The European Union (EU) Floods Directive defines a flood as a covering by water of land not normally covered by water. 45
  46. 46. History  Since its creation, Pakistan has faced severe floods in 1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 2010 and 2011. These floods affected the basins of the rivers in Punjab and Sindh. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Balochistan, FATA, Gilgit-Baltistan, AJK and some areas of Punjab also, damages are caused mainly due to flash floods in secondary and tertiary rivers including from hill torrents. 46
  47. 47. Why Floods in Pakistan?  The Indus River is the lifeline of Pakistan. Without the Indus and its tributaries, the land would have turned into a barren desert long ago.  It runs generally south-westward the entire length of Pakistan, about 2,900 km (1,800 mi), and empties into the Arabian Sea.  The Indus and its tributaries provide water to two- thirds of Pakistan. The principal tributaries of the Indus are the Sutlej, Beas, Chenab, Ravi, and Jhelum rivers. 47
  48. 48. Major Rivers of Pakistan 48
  49. 49. Causes  Flooding in rivers is generally caused by heavy concentrated rainfall in the catchments during the monsoon season, which is sometimes augmented by snowmelt flows.  The inadequate existing discharge capacity of some of the important structures (Barrages and Rail or Road Bridges) on Rivers Indus, Chenab and Ravi are another major reason of flooding. 49
  50. 50. Impacts 50
  51. 51. Impacts (cont.) 51
  52. 52. Management 52
  53. 53. Flood Protection Channel Modification Artificial Channel LiningDam Construction 53
  54. 54. Flood Abatement Terracing of Farmlands Reforestation 54
  55. 55. Behavioural Responses Floodplain Zoning Flood Proofing 55
  56. 56. 2010 Flood  Unprecedented Flood  Affected the entire length of Pakistan with maximum damage  Much bigger and complex in scope than Earthquake 2005 (area, population, duration and damages) 56
  57. 57. 2010 Flood (cont.) Flood Affected Districts of Pakistan Aerial View of an Inundated Area 57
  58. 58. 2010 Flood (cont.) 58
  61. 61. 2011 Flood (cont.) 61
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  64. 64. Discussion  Damages caused by floods do not follow regular trend.  Recent floods of 2010 and 2011 have caused major losses as compared to previous ones due to the large magnitudes which is due to heavy concentrated rainfall in the catchments.  Recent floods are seen as an indication of more intense and frequent extreme events in the future. 64
  65. 65. Conclusions  It has been concluded that for Pakistan, its tectonic location and concentrated rainfall of heavy monsoon season are the major causes of earthquakes and floods respectively.  The impact of these calamities becomes severe because of the illiteracy of people, poverty, non-consideration of proper seismic forces in design and construction in earthquake susceptible areas, inadequate discharge capacity of important hydraulic structures, lesser number of reservoirs, improper regulatory system to check the encroachment of village abadies in riverine areas and inadequate flood forecasting and warning systems.  Earthquakes and floods in Pakistan have caused massive loss of life and property for many times. The impact of these calamities can be reduced by incorporating proper management options and precautionary measures. 65
  66. 66. Recommendations  Based on the above mentioned facts and figures about earthquakes and floods in Pakistan following recommendations are given:  Seismic provisions of Building code of Pakistan should be strictly implemented in the design and construction of structures in the seismically active areas.  The earthquake vulnerable structures should be strengthened by suitable retrofitting techniques. 66
  67. 67. Recommendations (cont.)  Flood infrastructure should be monitored and necessary maintenance should be carried out on the regular basis.  Flood forecasting system should be improved by installing more gauge stations.  Seminars, workshops and training programs should be arranged to increase the awareness of people regarding these hazards.  For national and regional perspectives, sufficient hard work is required to cater the impacts of these hazards. 67
  68. 68. References  “National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy”, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Ministry of Climate Change, Government of Pakistan, 2013.  Magsi, M. A., “A Report on Seismic Activities and Tsunami Numerical Modeling for Pakistan”, JICA Training Course, Nagoya University, Japan, 2007.     Pakistan Engineering Council, Building Code of Pakistan, Seismic Provisions-2007.      “Annual Flood Report 2010” Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water & Power, Pakistan.  68
  69. 69. Thank You… ! 69