DR. RIZWAN SAEED
MBBS, MPH, DOMS, MME, PhD (RS)
dr.rizwansaeed@gmail.com
https://www.slideshare.net/riz222/demography-lecture-2022pptx

 DEMOS = PEOPLE
 GRAPHOS = WRITE / RECORD / DRAWING
“Demography is that branch of social science,
which deals with the statistical study of size,
structure and distribution of populations,
along with the spatial and temporal changes in
them in response to birth, migration, aging and
death.”
Demographic analysis can be applied to whole
societies or to groups defined by criteria such as
education, nationality, religion and ethnicity. In
academia, demography is often regarded as a branch
of either anthropology, economics, or sociology

1. Basic / academic demography
2. Applied demography
1. Fertility
2. Mortality
3. Marriage
4. Migration
5 . Social mobility
TYPES
COMPNENTS/ PROCESSES

Study of human population concerning their
 Size ( total no. of persons in specific area in sp. time)
 Composition (breakdown according to age,sex, literacy level , income etc)
 Distribution (arrangement of people in space at a given time e.g.
urban % ,rural%, etc.)
 Structure (distribution among age, sex grouping etc. e.g.<5 yr. or >65yr
male? , female?) etc.
 Changes / Behavior within them (pop. growth, pop. Decline,
Positive growth, Zero growth, Negative growth etc.)
POPULATION STUDIES
 Social effects
 Economic effects
 Health factors
 Geographic
 Environmental

Also concerned with characteristics of human beings
such as :
 Ethnicity (race / language)
 Social characteristics (literacy, marital status,
educational attainment)
 Religion
SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
 Census
 Surveys
 Registration (birth / death )

 CARRYING CAPACITY: The maximum sustainable size
of a resident population in a given ecosystem
 CRUDE RATE: rate of any demographic event
computed for an entire population (basic/rough)

•FERTILITY
•FECUNDITY
•MORTALITY
•NET MIGRATION
•URBANIZATION
•POPULATION GROWTH RATE
•POPULATION DOUBLING TIME
•REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY (ZERO POP. GROWTH)
•MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH
•DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
•CENSUS

Actual reproductive performance
(behavior) of a women / couple.
It is generally confined to women
•CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR)
•GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (GFR)
•AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)
•TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) Pak= 5.6
•GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE(GRR)
•NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR)
ORIGINAL RATES
DERIVED RATES

Physiological capability
(potential) of a women to
reproduce
•Varies by age, nutrition and health

•CHILD BEARING PERFORMANCE •CHILD BEARING CAPACITY
•Voluntary biological process •Inherent biological capacity
•Varies among individual depending
upon their reproductive behavior
•Fecundity is almost uniformly distributed
in both sexes
•Influenced by various social and
biological factors (age at marriage,
duration of marriage, spacing of
children, child survival, educational
status, economic stability, cultural
beliefs & practices)
•Fecundity of man starts at puberty and
continues throughout life; it attains its
maximum during second and third decade
of life and diminishes gradually
•Fecundity of woman starts and menarche
and ends with menopause
•Considerably reduced by various
methods of fertility control available to
couples
•Fecundity of a couple is essentially
determined by fecundity of female partners
•Increase in inter-pregnancy intervals
reduces fertility
•Equally fecund women demonstrates
variable levels of fertility in response to
variable levels of control on their child
bearing performance

Experience of a
population in terms
of deaths.
IMR MMR
The current infant mortality rate for
Pakistan in 2023 is 55.777 deaths per
1000 live births, a 1.95% decline from
2022.
The MMR in Pakistan is 186 deaths /
100,000 live births. The ratio is nearly 26%
higher in rural areas as compared to urban
areas

if you get one good shot on a roll of 36, you were doing good. That’s the
ratio: 36:1., or 1/36, 1 to 36
When resting, the average adult human heart beats at about 70 bpm
(males) and 75 bpm (females); however, this rate varies among people and
can be significantly lower in endurance athletes….
Example:
A rate is one kind of ratio.
Ratio: the relation between two similar magnitudes with
respect to the number of times the first contains the second;
proportional relation.("the relationship in quantity, amount, or
size between two or more things“)
Rate: a certain quantity or amount of one thing considered in
relation to a unit of another thing and used as a
standard or measure ("a fixed ratio between two things“)

No. of abortions occurring during a given year
per 1000 women of reproductive age
Abortion Ratio
It is the ratio between the no. of abortions occurring
in a given year and the no. of live births
Maternal Mortality Rate
Number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births
[PAKISTAN=500/100,000]
Maternal Mortality Ratio
The number of maternal deaths related to childbearing divided
by the number of live births (or by the number of live births +
fetal deaths) in that year.

GFR = NO. OF LIVE BIRTHS IN A YEAR x 1000
NO. OF FEMALES AGES (15-49 yrs)
ASFR = NO. OF LIVE BITHS IN A YEAR TO WOMEN AGE –X x 1000
NO. OF WOMEN AGED-X
TFR = SUM OF ASFRs (15-49 yrs) [PAK= 3.53 ---- 2017est.]
[ average no. of children a women would have if she was to pass through her
reproductive years bearing children at same rates as the women now in each
age group ]
• Fertility rate is high in 20-30 yrs of age in all countries

 Dependency Ratio :
= Children + Elderly X 100
Working Age
= Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100
Pop 16 – 64 years
Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 83.34%
Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5 %
Dependency Ratio of Japan = 44 %

 Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is
simply the ratio of males to females in
the population & is calculated by
taking the number of males in a
population & dividing it by the number
of females in the same population
Sex Ratio = Number of Males x 100
Number of Females

No. of live births in a specified period at a specific place x 100
No. of deaths at same place and period
EXAMPLE:
No. of live births in city (x) = 450
No. of deaths in same city and period = 300
V.I. = 450 / 300 x 100 = 150
If V.I. = 100 (births = death population is neither increasing nor decreasing)
If V.I. > 100 (births > deaths ; population increasing)
If V.I. < 100 (births < deaths ; population decreasing)
Population Density = No. of persons / km2 (or mile2)
2023 Pakistan  287 /(km2) [742/mile2]
USA36/(km2); UK281/(km2); Australia03/(km2); Can4/km2
India  464 /(km2); Bangladesh 1252 /(km2); China153/(km2)

The population density of World
in 2022 was 59.22 people/km2
(0.83% increase from 2021).
The population density of World
in 2021 was 58.73 people /km2
(0.87% increase from 2020).

5/3/2023
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population /

Previous Milestones
5 Billion: 1987
4 Billion: 1974
3 Billion: 1960
2 Billion: 1930
1 Billion: 1804

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Population Change =
Mortality + Fertility + (net) Migration
Pt 1 = Pt₀ + (B – D) + (IM - OM)
Pt 1 = Future Population
Pt₀ = Present Population
Population change can be due to
1. Natural Reasons (NATURAL INCREASE)
Natural Increase = No. of live births (B) - No. of residents died (D); [ B-D]
2. Migration
Net Migration = In migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM]
POPULATION GROWTH (PG) = NATURAL INCREASE + NET MIGRATION
PG = (B –D) + (IM – OM)

Pt1 = Pt₀ (1 + r)t
WHERE
Pt ₀ = present population
Pt
1
= future population
r = growth rate per person (in proportion)
t = no. of years between t₀ and t1
EXAMPLE : We want to calculate the population of a community in year
2012 (Pt1), Population of a community is 20,000 in year
2006 (Pt0 ) and annual GR is 3%
P(2012) = P (2006) (1+ 3 / 100)6
= 20000 (1+ 3 /100 )6 = 20000(1+0.030)6 = 23880
OR
Pt1 = Pt0 [ 1 + (GR / 100 x No. of years)]
= 20000 [1+ (3/100 x 6)] = 20000 (1 + 0.18) = 23600

Total no. of persons added or subtracted from a
population as a result of combined effect of
immigration and emigration
Net Migration = In-migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM]
(Immigration – Emigration)
Migration rate = No. of migrants x 1000
Total population
Net migration rate PAKISTAN
-2.17 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2011 est.)
Net migration rate PAKISTAN
-0.968 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2021 est.)

PRACTICAL PRESENTATION OF
AGE–SEX COMPOSITION OF A
SOCIETY (MALE / FEMALE )

POPULATION STRUCTURE
The population pyramid displays the age
and sex structure of a country or given area
Population in
Five Year
Age bands
Usually, but not always,
In % to make for easier
comparisons
between countries
OLD DEPENDANTS
ECONOMICALLY
ACTIVE
YOUNG
DEPENDANTS
FEMALES
To the right
MALES
To the left

What Population Pyramids Show Us
KEY
slope of pyramid indicate the death rate
width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate
proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations
height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the
wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority)
"kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in
death rate in the past
area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different
population age groups or different sex on one graph
The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an
Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country
Economically
More
Developed
Country
Economically
Less
Developed
Country

Population Pyramid of Nigeria (1995)

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.
Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed Countries: 2008

A broad based population pyramid is:
•Usually agricultural with problems of
overpopulation.
•Many Dependents (mainly <15 years age)
A BROAD-BASED PYRAMID means that
POPULATION needs to:
•increase food production
•build more homes & schools
•plan for more job opportunities for the young in
future
•implement birth control program /campaigns
(challenges of a broad based population pyramid)

Population Pyramid of Sweden (1995)

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.
Population by Age and Sex, More Developed Countries: 2008

A NARROW BASED POPULATION
PYRAMID MEANS:
Birth rate and Death rate low
•Work out incentives to encourage more births
•Hiring foreign labour
•Proper medical services & health care for the aged

 5 stages through which a nation passes during transition
1) HIGH STATIONARY STAGE (↑ CBR & CDR) e.g Amazon valley)
2) EARLY EXPANDING STAGE (↑CBR & ↓CDR) e.g Bangladesh)
3) LATE EXPANDING STAGE (↓CBR & ↓↓ CDR)e.g India/Pakistan)
4) LOW STATIONARY STAGE (↓CBR &↓ CDR) e.g. Sweden 0 GR)
5) DECLINING STAGE (↓↓ CBR & ↓CDR) e.g. Germany (–ve GR)

There are five stages of population pyramids:
high fluctuating, early expanding, late expanding, low fluctuating, and natural
decrease. (2022)

A look at global demographic situation suggests that some
countries have passed through high fertility and high
mortality condition to a low fertility and mortality
condition both aiming at low growth of population. These
two conditions are referred as old & new balance, with an
in-between period of imbalance as described below:
OLD BALANCE HIGH FERTILITY
HIGH MORTALITY
NEW
BALANCE
LOW FERTILITY
LOW MORTALITY
IMBALANCE
HIGH FERTILITY
LOW MORTALITY
(POOR HEALTH CONDITION ,
NOT COMPFORTABLE LIFE STYLE)
GOOD HEALTH CONDITIONS,
COMFORTABLE LIFE STYLE
(PERIOD OF RAPID NATURAL INCREASE)

THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER
POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS
MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ;
HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN
TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION
LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND
SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY
AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE
OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE
EXPANDING)
THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER
POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS
MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ;
HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN
TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION
LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND
SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY
AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE
OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE
EXPANDING)

•Demographic gap is the difference between
birth rate and death rate that develops when a
country undergoes demographic transition
•In a demographic cycle, as the country develops
and the living conditions improve, there is first a
decrease in the death rate in the population But the
birth rate continues to remain at a high level
•This results in a demographic gap and a resultant
increase in the total size of population
•The demographic gap is maintained till the birth
rate and death rates become equal and the
population size becomes stable

There is some merit in including or considering
a Stage 5 today with a declining population
Population Pyramids ( Demographic Transition Models)
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
•Both birth rates and
Death rates are High
•population
growth rates are
slow but
• population Is usually
restored Due to high
birth rate. Short life
expectancy
Scotland before 1760
New Guinea
Remote parts of
Amazonia
Scotland 1760 - 1830
Republic of Congo
•Population continues
to grow but at slower
rate. Low C Death Rate.
Dramatically declining
Crude Birth Rate.
Scotland 1870 -1950
Algeria, Tunisia
Morocco
IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS
•Low Crude Birth Rate
and Crude Death Rate
Higher dependency ratio
and longer life expectancy
Crude Death Rate does
Rise slightly because of
The ageing population
Scotland today.
Japan, USA
High stationary
•Population starts
to grow at an
exponential rate due to
fall in Crude Death Rate.
More living In middle
age.
•Life expectancy rises
Infant mortality rate
falls.
Early expanding Late expanding Late stationary
Pakistan

Modern countries currently in Stage 3 include
Columbia, India, Jamaica, Botswana, Mexico, Kenya,
South Africa, and the UAE.
Modern countries currently in Stage 5 include
Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Japan,
Portugal and Ukraine.

K represents the carrying capacity, and r is the
maximum per capita growth rate for a population.
Logistic
growth
equation

According to Malthusian theory of
population increase population increase
in geometric ratio where as food supply increase
in arithmetic ratio. This disharmony would lead
to widespread poverty and starvation which would
only be checked by natural occurrences such as
disease, high infant mortality, famine, war or moral
restraint. His main contribution is in the
agricultural sector. According to this theory there
are two steps to control the population,
PREVENTIVE AND POSITIVE CHECK. preventive
means control in birth rate, use of different
methods to control birth and positive check means
natural calamities, war etc.

 233,193,308 people (27/3/2023 ; 11:15 pm)
 The average Pakistan household size is 6.4 people (world=4.9 & Europe 3.1,
Russia 2.46, USA 2.61) , and the country's literacy rate stands at 58.9 %
The birth rate for Pakistan in 2023 is 26.034 births per 1000 people, 1.87%
decline from 2020 & death rate is 6.83 – which is leading
to overpopulation in the country.
Pakistan population is 2.83% to world population and rank #5
The report went on to say that Pakistan is currently in the third
stage of demographic transition of moderate growth where
birth rate and death rate both decline and the pace of increase in population gets
slow.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-
population/population-by-country/

Pakistan Demographic Profile
Population 207,774,520 (2017)
238,181,034 (July 2021 est.) [rank = 5 ]
Growth rate 2.10 (2016) 3.34% (1985)
1.99% (2021)
Birth rate 29.8 births / 1,000 population (2016)
26.95 (2021)
Death rate 7.5 deaths / 1,000 population (2016)
6.1 deaths/ 1000 population (2021)
Life expectancy 67.7 years (2016)
69.37 (2021)
• male
• female
65.8 years (2016)
69.8 years (2016)
Population density (km
2
) 292.13 (rank = 48)
Fertility rate 3.6 children born / woman (2017)
Urban = 2.9
Rural = 3.9
TFR= 3.53
Infant mortality rate (IMR)
Maternal mortality rate (MMR)
Urban population
53.86 deaths / 1,000 live births (2016), 55.26 (2021)
140/100,000 live births (2017)
37.4%
Health expenditures
Physicians density
Hospital bed density
3.2%
0.98/1000 population
0.68/1000 population

Literacy
Total population:
62.3%
Male: 72.5%
Female: 51.8%

URBANIZATION

• ↑ births
•Rural migration
•Attractive living
•Employment opportunities
•Health
•Education
•Transport
•Entertainment
etc.

Beijing

chicago

hongkong

London

Dhaka

Singapore

seattle

Tronto

Population % of Pakistan 2023
38 % Urban
62 % Rural

Net migration Rate:
2023 is -0.874 per 1000 population, a 5.1%
decline from 2022
How many people leave Pakistan?
Figures from the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment
show that 832,339 Pakistanis went overseas for work in 2022, the
most since 2016 and the third-highest tally on record. Saudi
Arabia was the most preferred destination, attracting
514,909.(16-Feb-2023)

https://wisevoter.com/country-rankings/fastest-growing-economies/#angola

A community is called as Urban if :
 Population is > 5000
 75% of male population is working in
non-agricultural occupation
 Population density is at least
400/sq.km
Population ≥ 10 million  megacity

Pakistan 2018
Rural % Urban %
39.22 % 60.78 %

Population
204,924,861 (July 2017 est.)
Age structure
(2017 est.)
0-14 years: 31.36% (male 33,005,623/female 31,265,463)
15-24 years: 21.14% (male 22,337,897/female 20,980,455)
25-54 years: 37.45% (male 39,846,417/female 36,907,683)
55-64 years: 5.57% (male 5,739,817/female 5,669,495)
65 years & over: 4.48% (male 4,261,917/female 4,910,094)
Dependency ratios
total dependency ratio: 65.3
youth dependency ratio: 57.9
elderly dependency ratio: 7.4
Population growth rate 1.43% (2017 est.)
Birth rate 21.9 birth /1,000 population (2017 est.)
Death rate 6.3 death /1,000 population (2017 est.)
Net migration rate -1.3 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2017 est.)
Urbanization urban population: 39.7% of total population (2017)

Major cities - population
Karachi 16.618 million; Lahore 8.741 million; Faisalabad 3.567
million; Rawalpindi 2.506 million; Multan 1.921 million;
ISLAMABAD (capital) 1.365 million (2015)
Sex ratio
(2016 est.)
at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female
0-14 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
15-24 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
25-54 years: 1.08 male(s)/female
55-64 years: 1.01 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.88 male(s)/female
total population: 1.06 male(s)/female
Mother's mean age at first birth
(2012/13 est.)
23.4 years
note: median age at first birth among women 25-29
Infant mortality rate
total: 52.1 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 55.2 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 48.8 deaths/1,000 live births (2017 est.)
Life expectancy at birth
total population: 68.1 years
male: 66.1 years
female: 70.1 years (2017 est.)
Total fertility rate 2.62 children born/woman (2017 est.)

Drinking water source
improved:
urban: 93.9% of population
rural: 89.9% of population
total: 91.4% of population
Sanitation facility access
improved:
urban: 83.1% of population
rural: 51.1% of population
total: 63.5% of population
Major infectious diseases
degree of risk: high
food or waterborne diseases: bacterial diarrhea, hepatitis A and E, and typhoid
fever
vectorborne diseases: dengue fever and malaria
animal contact disease: rabies (2016)
Ethnic groups
Punjabi 44.7%, Pashtun (Pathan) 15.4%, Sindhi 14.1%, Sariaki 8.4%, Muhajirs 7.6%,
Balochi 3.6%, other 6.3%
Religions
Muslim (official) 96.4% (Sunni 85-90%, Shia 10-15%), other (includes Christian and
Hindu) 3.6% (2010 est.)
Languages
Punjabi 48%, Sindhi 12%, Saraiki (a Punjabi variant) 10%, Pashto (alternate name,
Pashtu) 8%, Urdu (official) 8%, Balochi 3%, Hindko 2%, Brahui 1%, English (official;
lingua franca of Pakistani elite and most government ministries), Burushaski, and
other 8%
Literacy
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 57.9%
male: 69.5%
female: 45.8% (2015 est.)

School life expectancy (primary
to tertiary education)
total: 8 years
male: 9 years
female: 7 years (2015)
Education expenditures 2.7% of GDP (2015)
Maternal mortality rate 178 deaths/100,000 live births (2015 est.)
Children under the age of 5
years underweight
31.6% (2012)
Health expenditures
2.6% of GDP (2014)
Physicians density
0.81 physicians/1,000 population (2014)
Hospital bed density 0.6 beds/1,000 population (2012)
Obesity - adult prevalence rate 8.6% (2016)

Size = quantity of population
Composition = quality of population
•Age
•Sex
•Literacy level
•Dependency ratio
•Occupation
•Socio-economic status
•Living conditions (housing)
•Marital status
•Language
•Family size
•Religion
•Culture etc

study of factors responsible for the changes (size, composition,
distribution) of population i.e.
Marriages
 Fertility
Child woman ratio
Mortality
Migration
Population Explosion
High birth rate
Low death rate
Population stabilization (either↑ death rate or ↓ birth rate, as
death rate cannot be increase so birth rate has to be decreased by
birth control & non birth control measures)

•Decrease frequency of natural calamities
•Advancements in medical sciences
•Health education
•Better health care facilities
•Launching of various national health
programs
•International aid etc

•Physical hazards (housing , environment, pollution)
•Psychological hazards
•Social hazards (alcoholism, broken homes, corruption,
divorces, drug abuse, gambling)
• Anti-social activities ( theft, murder, sex-crimes (rape-
prostitution) robbery, child-abuse, juvenile delinquency)
•Miscellaneous hazards (STDs, malnutrition, infections,
epidemics, HTN due to stress
Thus population explosion is not only a health problem but a
social, economic and demographic problem also )

Age structure.
The distribution of a population according to age, usually by 5-year age groups.
Age-specific fertility rate.
The number of births during a year to women in a particular age group,
usually per 1,000 women in a 5-year age group at midyear.
Aging.
An increase in the proportion of the population in the older ages.
May also be measured as an increase in the median age of the population.
Births.
The number of live births occurring during a given calendar year.
Birth rate.
The average annual number of births during a year per 1,000 population at
midyear.
Also known as the crude birth rate.
Coale-Demeny model life tables.
A series of life tables depicting standard (or model) age patterns of mortality
and changes in those patterns at different overall levels of mortality.
These series were developed for four "regions" (North, East, South, and West)
based on the degree to which the patterns reflected data from those regions of
Europe.
The models were based on data from all continents, but primarily from Europe.

Cohort.
A group of individuals born in the same calendar year or group of years. Also
referred to as a birth cohort.
Components of change (of population).Fertility, mortality, and migration.
Crude death rate.
The average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at midyear.
Death rate.
The average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at
midyear. Also known as the crude death rate.
Dependency ratios.
A population’s dependency ratio, also known as the age dependency ratio
and the total dependency ratio, is the combined child population (people under
age 15) and elderly population (people ages 65 and above) per 100 people ages
15-64 (people “of labor force age”).
The youth dependency ratio is the number of people under age 15 per 100 people
ages 15-64.
The elderly, or old age, dependency ratio is the number of people 65 and over per
100 people 15-64.
Dependency ratios are also referred to as support ratios.
Dependent age groups.
People under age 15 and people 65 years of age or older.

Gross reproduction rate per woman.
The average number of daughters that would be born alive to a hypothetical cohort of
women if they lived to the end of their reproductive years and if they experienced
the some age-specific fertility throughout their lives that women in each age
group experience in a given year or period of years.
Growth rate.
The average annual percent change in the population, resulting from a surplus (or
deficit) of births over deaths and the balance of migrants entering and leaving a
country. The rate may be positive or negative. Also known as population growth
rate or average annual rate of growth.
Infant mortality rate.
The number of deaths of infants under 1 year of age from a cohort of 1,000 live births.
Denoted 1q0 or IMR, it is the probability of dying between birth and exact age 1.
Life expectancy at birth.
The average number of years a group of people born in the same year can be expected
to live if mortality at each age remains constant in the future.
Life table.
A statistical table that follows a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 people born at the same
time as they progress through successive ages, with the cohort reduced from one
age to the next according to a set of death rates by age until all people eventually
die.
Median age.
The midpoint age that separates the younger half of a population from the older half.

Midyear population.
The population estimate for July 1 of the given year.
Modern methods of contraception.
Condoms, IUD’s, pills, vaginal methods (spermicides, diaphragms, or caps),
injectables, and voluntary sterilization of a woman or her partner.
More developed countries.
The “more developed” countries and areas include all of North America and
Europe plus Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. This category matches the
“more developed” classification employed by the United Nations.
Natural increase.
The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths.
Net migration rate.
The difference between the number of migrants entering and those leaving a
country in a year, per 1,000 midyear population. May also be expressed in
percent. A positive figure is known as a net immigration rate and a negative
figure as a net emigration rate.
Net number of migrants.
The difference between the number of migrants entering and those leaving a
country in a year. A positive figure is known as net immigration and a negative
figure as net emigration.

Pandemic.
A global epidemic.
Population pyramid.
A graphical representation of the age and sex distribution of a population. Numbers or
proportions of males and females in each age group are plotted as horizontal bars
with the males on the left and females on the right. Pyramids may be constructed
to show single years of age or, as with the IDB pyramids, 5-year age groups.
Rate of natural increase.
The difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate, but usually
expressed as a percent rather than per 1,000 population.
Sex ratio at birth.
The ratio of male to female births.
Total fertility rate.
The average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to
the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given set of
age-specific fertility rates.
Under-5 mortality.
Number of deaths of children under 5 years of age from a cohort of 1,000 live births.
Denoted 5q0, it is the probability of dying between birth and exact age 5.
Vital events.
Births and deaths.

Demographic Indicators 2012 1995 2005 2015 2025
Population
Midyear population (in thousands) 190,291 134,185 169,279 199,086 228,385
Growth rate (percent) 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.3
Fertility
Total fertility rate (births per woman) 3.1 5.7 4.0 2.8 2.2
Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population) 24 38 29 23 19
Births (in thousands) 4,624 5,155 4,941 4,495 4,380

Demographic Indicators 2012 1995 2005 2015 2025
Mortality
Life expectancy at birth(years) 66 60 64 67 71
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) 61 96 76 56 40
Under 5 mortality rate(per 1,000 births) 81 137 103 73 51
Crude death rate (per 1,000 population) 7 11 8 6 6
Deaths (in thousands) 1,294 1,428 1,347 1,292 1,368
Migration
Net migration rate (per 1,000 population) -2 0 -4 -2 -0
Net number of migrants(in thousands) -381 32 -635 -307 -98

Rate at which a given population is
expected to increase in a given period of
time. It is shown in % age per year .
GR= CBR – CDR
POPULATION MOMENTUM = POPULATION x GROWTH RATE
If Pakistan fertility declines to replacement level, even then
population of Pakistan will continue to grow for 40 years.

Country Population Country Population
China 1,311 Pakistan 166
India 1,122 Bangladesh 147
US 299 Russia 142
Indonesia 225 Nigeria 135
Brazil 187 Japan 128

 International migration
 The more developed regions are expected to
remain , the
major net receiving countries being (annual
numbers) USA (1.1 million), Germany (204,000),
Canada (201,000), the UK (133,000), Italy
(120,000) and Australia (100,000). The countries
with the are projected
to be China (–333,000), Mexico (–304,000), India
(–245,000), the Philippines (–180,000), Pakistan
(–173,000) and Indonesia (–168,000)

70 / Growth rate (GR)
e.g. GR= 2.8 then
PDT = 70 / 2.8  25

Most significant indicator of fertility is
net reproduction rate (NRR)

•The Net Reproduction Ratio is the expected
number of daughters, per newborn prospective
mother, who may or may not survive to and
through the ages of childbearing.
•A stable population, one that has had constant
crude birth and death rates for such long time that
the percentage of people in every age class
remains constant, or equivalently, the population
pyramid has an unchanging structure.
A stationary population, one that is both stable
and unchanging in size (the difference between
crude birth rate and crude death rate is zero).

A slum, as defined by the United Nations Human
Settlements Program (UN–HABITAT), is a run-down
area of a city characterized by substandard housing and
squalor and lacking in tenure security. According to the
United Nations, one billion people worldwide live in
slums.

The young age dependency ratio (YDR) is the
number of people aged under 20 (expressed as a
percentage of the population aged 20–59).
The old age dependency ratio (ODR) is the
number of people aged 60 and over (expressed as a
percentage of the population aged 20–59).
If we add up the young age and old age dependency
ratio, we get the total age dependency ratio (TDR),
i.e. the number of people aged 0-19 and 60 and over
(expressed as a percentage of the population aged
20-59).
Sometimes the relationship between working age and
older age populations is expressed as the potential
support ratio (PSR). Thus if we take the working
aged population to be 15–64, the PSR is the ratio of
the number of people in the working age groups (15–
64) to people who are 65 or over (population 15–64
divided by population 65+).

 Dependency Ratio :
= Children + Elderly X 100
Working Age
= Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100
Pop 16 – 64 years
Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 83.34%
Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5 %
Dependency Ratio of Japan = 44 %
 Sex Ratio:The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of
males to females in the population & is calculated by taking the
number of males in a population & dividing it by the number of
females in the same population
Sex Ratio = Number of Males X 100
Number of Females

No. of live births in a specified period at a specific place x 100
No. of deaths at same place and period
EXAMPLE:
No. of live births in city (x) = 450
No. of deaths in same city and period = 300
V.I. = 450 / 300 x 100 = 150
If V.I. = 100 (births = death population is neither increasing nor decreasing)
If V.I. > 100 (births > deaths ; population increasing)
If V.I. < 100 (births < deaths ; population decreasing)
Population Density = No. of persons / sq. mile
Pakistan = 206

Population Change =
Mortality + Fertility + (net) Migration
Pt 1 = Pt₀ + (B – D) + (IM - OM)
Pt 1 = Future Population
Pt₀ = Present Population
Population change can be due to
1. Natural Reasons (NATURAL INCREASE)
Natural Increase = No. of live births (B) - No. of residents died (D); [ B-D]
2. Migration
Net Migration = In migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM]
POPULATION GROWTH (PG) = NATURAL INCREASE + NET MIGRATION
PG = (B –D) + (IM – OM)

Pt1 = Pt₀ (1 + r)t
WHERE
Pt ₀ = present population
Pt
1
= future population
r = growth rate per person (in proportion)
t = no. of years between t₀ and t1
EXAMPLE : We want to calculate the population of a community in year
2012 (Pt1), Population of a community is 20,000 in year
2006 (Pt0 ) and annual GR is 3%
P(2012) = P (2006) (1+ 3 / 100)6
= 20000 (1+ 3 /100 )6 = 20000(1+0.030)6 = 23880
OR
Pt1 = Pt0 [ 1 + (GR / 100 x No. of years)]
= 20000 [1+ (3/100 x 6)] = 20000 (1 + 0.18) = 23600

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

Time taken(approx.) for a population to
double(approx.). Because population
increase is on a compound interest
formula. 1% / yr increase would cause the
population to double in about 70 yrs.(by
interpretation, observation and collection
of last census data) If the population is
increasing at 3% / yr. Then the doubling
time will be 70 ÷3 = 23.3 yrs.
PDT = 70 / GR
PDT of Pakistan= 70/2.8 = 25 yrs. approx
PDT of World = 70/1.3= 50 yrs. approx

Is achieved, when a couple has two births
during their reproductive life, just replace to
themselves
At a community scale, the replacement level
is considered when there are on an average
2.1 births / woman, to compensate for
expected deaths.

•The replacement level fertility, the average
number of children a woman must have in order to
replace herself with a daughter in the next
generation. For example the replacement level
fertility in the US is 2.11. This means that 100
women will bear 211 children, 103 of which will be
females. About 3% of the alive female infants are
expected to decease before they bear children,
thus producing 100 women in the next generation.
•The gross reproduction rate, the number of
daughters who would be born to a woman
completing her reproductive life at current age-
specific fertility rates.

Is a characteristic of population growth
when sharp decline in births does not
bring in an immediate reduction in
natural increase

Currently data on population is utilized/used
by;
 Businesses
 Governments
 Academicians
169

Businesses use population data to;
 Identify potential markets & places to
run advertisements (retail businesses).
 Determine whether an area considered
for a plant/factory has a sufficient labour
force.
 They also study population shifts for
changes that could affect market for their
products, (manufacturing businesses).

Governments at all levels also utilize population data for the
following purposes:
 1. For long range planning of various departments &
government organizations.
 2. For projecting the kind of public services that
will be needed at various points in the future.
 3. For monitoring changes in society such as decline
or improvement in health, shifts in the structure of
the family, alterations in ethnic relationships etc.

For health planning. Demographic data can assist in helping
to plan by describing the following:
 Uptake of health services in a country or an area.
 The usual presentation of illnesses in an area/country.
 By identification of the population’s perception of illness
& disease.
 By identifying the lifestyle & cultural practices of the
population.
 By the kind of encounters that the population has with the
services.
 By identifying the patterns of disease in the population.
 By identifying the kind of alternate medicine being
utilized by the population.

Academicians use demographic data:
 To improve understanding of human society
by analyzing the consequences of social
political & economic change brought about by
population alterations. In so doing they
 Help to forecast the future of the society.
 Assist governments in planning purposes.

Population-growth rate
the rate at which a population grows each year
(given period of time) % age / yr.
Rate of Natural Increase (the rate at which a
population grows each year based solely on
births and deaths, not migration)
Per Capita Income (the average amount of
money each person in a country/region/home
earns per year).
PCI= Total income .
Total population

Census is the procedure of systematically
acquiring and recording information (massive country
wide operation to consume enormous manpower and
other resources) about the members of a given
population. It is a regularly occurring and official
count of a particular population. The term is used
mostly in connection with national population and
door to door censuses' (to be taken every 10 years
according to United Nations recommendations),
agriculture, and business censuses. The term itself
comes from Latin: during the Roman Republic the
census was a list which kept track of all adult males fit
for military service.

 Earliest record of census= 4000 BC in Babylonia, 3000
BC in china, 2500 BC in Egypt
 Modern line ( scope extended beyond head counting)
Canada in 1666 first conducted census followed by US
1790 and England 1801, India country wide operation
started in 1881
 De Facto (factually)(person is treated as a resident
where he is available at the time of contact, even he
may be actually resident of some other place)
 De Jure (legally)(person is treated as a resident where
he actually belongs to, even he may be residing else
where)
 India de Facto till 1931 and 1941 onwards de jure

The first Pakistan Census after the proclamation of
independence of Pakistan was conducted in 1951. It
was decreed that censuses have to be carried out
once in 10 years. The second census was conducted
in 1961. However the third one was conducted in
1972 because of war with India. The fourth census
was held in 1981.The fifth census was conducted
delayed in March 1998. The sixth census of Pakistan
is planned in October 2008. Pakistan's estimated
population in 2011 is over 187 million

ERRORS (limitations) of Census
 Infants are generally under enumerated
 Many persons do not know their exact age
 Old persons tend to add years to their actual age
 Information about handicapped persons is incomplete
 Information about work status is distorted
USES
 Provision of demographic, social and economic data of
country, helps to plan health & welfare programs.
 Information on composition, size & distribution of
population, population trend, quality of life
 Helps to estimate mid-year population, pop. policies

 Process of recording vital events that occur
in a population from time to time; events
registered relate to births, deaths &
marriages.
 Census and VR are inter related if census
gives a snapshot VR gives a motion picture
of that population by recording changes on
continuous basis.

•The crude birth rate (CBR), the annual number of live
births per 1000 people in specific area & time
•The general fertility rate,(GFR) the annual number
of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (often
taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to
44) in specific area & time
•age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), the annual
number of live births per 1000 women in particular age
groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.) in specific area & time
•The crude death rate(CDR), the annual number
of deaths per 1000 people in specific area & time

• The infant mortality rate (IMR), the annual
number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000
live births in specific area & time
• The expectation of life (or life expectancy), the
number of years which an individual at a given age
could expect to live at present mortality levels. in
specific area & time
• The total fertility rate (TFR),the number of live
births per woman completing her reproductive life,
if her childbearing at each age reflected current
age-specific fertility rates in specific area & time

 According to the Encyclopedia of International
Development, the term demographic trap is used by
demographers "to describe the combination of high
fertility (birth rates) and declining mortality (death
rates) in developing countries, resulting in a period of
high population growth rate (PGR).“
 High fertility combined with declining mortality
happens when a developing country moves through
the demographic transition of becoming developed.

 Actuarial science is the discipline that
applies mathematical and statistical
methods to assess risk in the insurance
and finance industries
 In actuarial science, a LIFE TABLE (also called
a mortality table or actuarial table) is a table
which shows, for each age, what the probability is
that a person of that age will die before his or her
next birthday. From this starting point, a number
of inferences can be derived.
 the probability of surviving any particular year of
age

 remaining life expectancy for people at
different ages
 Life tables can be constructed using projections of
future mortality rates, but more often they are a
snapshot of age-specific mortality rates in the
recent past, and do not purport to be projections.
For various reasons, such as advances in medicine,
age-specific mortality rates vary over time.
 Life tables are usually constructed separately for
men and for women because of their substantially
different mortality rates. Other characteristics
can also be used to distinguish different risks, such
as smoking status, occupation, and socio-
economic class.

QALY’s: Quality-adjusted life
years
DALY”s : disability-adjusted
life years
L
I
F
E
T
A
B
L
E

THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER
POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS
MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ;
HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN
TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION
LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND
SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY
AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE
OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE
EXPANDING)
THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER
POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS
MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ;
HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN
TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION
LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND
SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY
AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE
OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE
EXPANDING)