BioPotentials_Oslo2009

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presentation on the Workshop on Biomass resources and bioenergy in Norway and other Nordic countries

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BioPotentials_Oslo2009

  1. 1. Biomass Potential and Cost Assessment through the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model Workshop on Biomass Resources and Bioenergy in Norway and other Nordic Countries Oslo, Norway, 23-25 September 2009 Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Hamburg University, Germany Chrystalyn Ivie S. Ramos Uwe A. Schneider Christine Schleupner
  2. 2. EUFASOM Model Presentation <ul><li>Partial equilibrium model (endogenous prices) </li></ul><ul><li>Bottom-up approach </li></ul><ul><li>Computes agricultural and forest market equilibrium (optimization model) </li></ul><ul><li>Constrained by resource endowments, technologies, policies </li></ul><ul><li>Spatially explicit, dynamic </li></ul><ul><li>Data intensive, comprehensive </li></ul><ul><li>Integrates environmental effects </li></ul><ul><li>Programmed in GAMS, Solved as LP </li></ul>
  3. 3. The EUFASOM Model <ul><li>General Objective </li></ul><ul><li>To advice policy makers about the agricultural and forestry sector response to structural changes based on: </li></ul><ul><li>Policies </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental change </li></ul><ul><li>Technical change </li></ul><ul><li>Socioeconomic change </li></ul><ul><li>Specific Objective </li></ul><ul><li>EUFASOM aims at integrated assessments of food, climate, biodiversity, bioenergy and water issues from different land use options. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Biomass and Bioenergy Investigations in EUFASOM <ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>investigate biomass and bioenergy technical and competitive economic potentials in Europe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>analyze the impacts of biomass and bioenergy production on food sustainability, biodiversity, regional and international trade and its related marginal costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>assess CO 2 mitigation potentials in Europe </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Economic Potentials of Biomass and Bioenergy <ul><li>Direct Production Costs </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity Costs (land scarcity, markets) </li></ul><ul><li>External Costs (Non-market impacts) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GHG Emissions (Offsets, Leakage) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biodiversity and Ecosystems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Soil Quality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Food Security </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Landscape </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Biomass and Bioenergy Economics in EUFASOM <ul><li>Farm and Processing Plant level economics - Microeconomics </li></ul><ul><li>Economics of international agricultural and forest markets – Macroeconomics </li></ul><ul><li>Externalities – Policy Analysis </li></ul>
  7. 7. Microeconomic Data 1: Conventional Technologies <ul><li>Sources: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Farm Accountancy Data Network Database </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Statistical Databases & Data-sets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Farm budgets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Yields </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inputs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Automated Data Processing & Integration </li></ul>
  8. 8. Microeconomic Data 2: Adaptation Technologies <ul><li>New Technologies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New agricultural production methods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New bioenergy processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Existing Technologies without data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crop management adaptations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Processing plants </li></ul></ul>Engineering
  9. 9. Macroeconomics in EUFASOM Demand Supply Price Quantity P* Q* Producer Surplus Consumer Surplus
  10. 10. EUFASOM Model Structure Resources Land Use Technologies Processing Technologies Products Markets Inputs Limits Supply Functions Limits Demand Functions, Trade Limits Environmental Impacts
  11. 11. Technological Data: Biomass <ul><li>Indicative producer prices </li></ul>Sources: Defra/DTI (2007), UK Biomass Strategy Statistics Austria (2008), ENFA Consortium (2008) ~ 100 Timber ~ 50 Pulp ~ 70 Willow ~ 40 RCG ~ 53 Miscanthus Average Cost (EUR/tonne) Biomass Type
  12. 12. Technological Data: Bioenergy <ul><li>Indicative market prices </li></ul>Sources: http://www.eubia.org/ http://www.ebio.org/   ENFA Consortium (2008) E UR/hL ~ 100 Biogas for transport 15-20 50-70 10-20 30-40 Price E UR/MWh Biogas for electricity E UR/hL Biofuels E UR/MWh Bioheat E UR/MWh Bioelectricity Unit Sector
  13. 13. European Biomass Resources <ul><li>EU Consumption (2006): </li></ul><ul><li> Source: http://www.eubia.org/ </li></ul><ul><li>- Primary energy: > 2000 mtoe </li></ul><ul><li>- Solid biomass*: ~ 62.4 mtoe (3.7%) </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>EU guideline on biomass use (EU25): </li></ul><ul><li> Sources: EUROSTAT, http://www.inforse.org/ and http://www.eubia.org/ </li></ul><ul><li>- by 2010 ^ : ~ 150 mtoe ~ 360 M dry ton biomass </li></ul><ul><li>- by 2020: ~ 217 mtoe ~ 520 M dry ton biomass </li></ul>* Includes biomass to heat, electricity, biofuels ^ Conversion: 1 toe ~ 2.4 dry ton biomass
  14. 14. Bioenergy Indicative Targets by 2010 <ul><li>Sources: B. Kavalov (2004); EC (2006) </li></ul><ul><li>15% ~ 62 mtoe for heat/electricity </li></ul><ul><li>5.75% ~ 18 mtoe for biofuels </li></ul>Source: EU Biomass Action Plan (2006), http://eubionet2.ohoi.net/
  15. 15. Scenario Analysis Results <ul><li>Economic Potentials </li></ul><ul><li>Technical Potentials </li></ul><ul><li>Impact on Food, Consumption and Trade </li></ul><ul><li>Impact on Biodiversity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Grasslands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wetlands </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Scenario: Biomass Potential Assessment * 1 toe ~ 2.4 dry ton biomass * Broek van den et al (2003) Technical Potential* By 2010 Biomass Price in Euro/ton EU25 Biomass Demand in million dry tons 0 250 500 750 1000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Competitive Economic Potential Technical Potential (simulated) * 2006 consumption ~150 M dry tons 2006 consumption
  17. 17. Scenario: Bioenergy Potential Assessment Bioenergy Price in Euro/MWh EU25 Bioenergy Demand in 1000 MWh (all sectors) 0 500 1000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Competitive Economic Potential Technical Potential 250 750
  18. 18. Scenario: Biofuel Cost-Supply Functions 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Marginal Biofuel Cost in Euro/hl EU25 Biofuel Production in mill hl Bioethanol Biodiesel Biofuel
  19. 19. Impact on Food Price, Consumption and Trade Net Export Volume in Billion Euros -1000 -500 0 500 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 Fisher Index for Food Price and Consumption EU25 Bioenergy Demand in million MWh Price Consumption Net Export
  20. 20. Impact on Biodiversity: Grassland 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Bioenergy Subsidy in Euro/MWh EU 25 Bioenergy Demand in 1000 MWh KeepGrassland_Biofuel KeepGrassland_Biogas KeepGrassland_BioElec KeepGrassland_AllBioEn ConvertGrassland_AllBioEn
  21. 21. Protect existing grassland areas Impact on Biodiversity: Grassland 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 EU25 Energy crop area in million ha Bioenergy Subsidy in Euro/ha Northern Europe Western Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe Southern Europe EU25 Countries
  22. 22. Unprotect existing grassland areas Impact on Biodiversity: Grassland 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 EU25 Energy crop area in million ha Bioenergy Subsidy in Euro/ha Northern Europe Western Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe Southern Europe EU25 Countries
  23. 23. Scenario: Bioenergy and Wetlands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Marginal Biomass Cost in Euro/ton EU25 Biomass Production in million wet tons 10 Mha 30 Mha Wetlands = 40 Mha
  24. 24. Impact on Biodiversity: Wetlands Protect existing wetland areas 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 EU25 Wetland area in Million ha Incentive in Euro/ha Biomass Target 0% Biomass Target 25% Biomass Target 50% Biomass Target 75% Biomass Target 100%
  25. 25. Impact on Biodiversity: Wetlands Unprotect existing wetland areas 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 EU25 Wetland area in Million ha Incentive in Euro/ha Biomass Target 0% Biomass Target 25% Biomass Target 50% Biomass Target 75% Biomass Target 100%
  26. 26. References <ul><li>Ramos, C. I. S. and U.A. Schneider (2009). “The European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM)”. 3rd Project Meeting, Skopje, Macedonia, 10-11 September 2009. </li></ul><ul><li>Link, P.M., C.I. Ramos, U.A. Schneider, E. Schmid, J. Balkovic and R. Skalsky (2008). “The interdependencies between food and biofuel production in European agriculture - an application of EUFASOM”. FNU-165, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg. </li></ul><ul><li>Schleupner, C. and U.A. Schneider (2008). “Evaluation of European wetland restoration potentials by considering economic costs under different policy options”. FNU-158, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg. </li></ul><ul><li>Schneider U.A., J. Balkovic, S. De Cara, O. Franklin, S. Fritz, P. Havlik, I. Huck, K. Jantke, A.M.I. Kallio, F. Kraxner, A. Moiseyev, M. Obersteiner, C.I. Ramos, C. Schleupner, E. Schmid, D. Schwab, R. Skalsky (2008). “The European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model – EUFASOM”, FNU-156. Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Hamburg. </li></ul><ul><li>Schneider, U.A., C. Schleupner, K. Jantke, E. Schmid, C. I. Ramos (2008). “Biofuel consequences for European wetland species”. Workshop on Linking Biophysical and Economic Models of Biofuel Production and Environmental Impacts. Chicago, November 13-15, 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Smit, H.J., M.J. Metzger, F. Ewert (1998). “Spatial distribution of grassland productivity and land use in Europe”. Agricultural Systems, Volume 98, Issue 3, October 2008, Pages 208-219. </li></ul>
  27. 27. EUFASOM Applications <ul><li>Applied in a number of EU Projects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EC4MACS (EU-LIFE Program) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FP6 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NEEDS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>European Non-Food Agriculture </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>TranSust.Scan </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>GEO-BENE </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FP7 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Biomass Energy Europe </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>EuroGEOSS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>CCTAME </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>LULUCF Projections (in cooperation with EC-JRC) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Thank you! Chrystalyn Ivie S. Ramos [email_address] http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/

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