CLIMATE CHANGE,   COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS              and         SEA-LEVEL RISE         URI Climate Change Symposium   ...
Southern New England, Long Island, Continental Shelf ~ 26,000 yBP                                                 Map Gene...
THE LAST NORTH AMERICAN           ICE SHEETS    CORDILLERAN                               LAURENTIDE-                     ...
MALASPINA GLACIER – Northeast Gulf of Alaska-                   An Analog “The size of Rhode Island”
Oakley, 2011               You are                here                         Ice margins modified from:                 ...
Oakley, 2011               Ice margins modified from:               Dyke and Prest, 1987               Ridge, 2010; Goss, ...
Oakley, 2011               Charlestown                 Moraine                             Ice margins modified from:     ...
Ice margins modified from:Dyke and Prest, 1987Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993Smith, 2010     Oakley, 2011
Ice margins modified from:Dyke and Prest, 1987Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993Smith, 2010      Oakley, 2011
Oakley, 2011               Ice margins modified from:               Dyke and Prest, 1987               Ridge, 2010; Goss, ...
EustaticSea-Level  Rise    +IsostaticRebound                            Laurentide     at                            Ice S...
-165 ft Begin Meltwater Pulse 1B                                Post-Glacial                                   Lake       ...
-130 ft End Meltwater Pulse 1B                                       Post-Glacial                                         ...
When Contemplating Rhode Island     Coastal Geologic HazardsOne Must Consider:• Extratropical Cyclones (“Nor’easters”)• Hu...
When Contemplating Rhode Island      Coastal Geologic HazardsWhich Give Rise to these Processes:• Frontal Erosion – from B...
When Contemplating Rhode Island       Coastal Geologic HazardsThe Scale of Processes are:• Breaking Waves – 3 to 10+ feet ...
The Sea May Be Rising Long Term – But…..      Instantaneous Storm Surges         Elevate Sea Level Now
Narragansett Pier Seawall – Patriots Day 2007                                          WPRI.com                           ...
Patriots Day Extratropical Storm – April 2007            Newport Tide Gauge                    SET UP                     ...
Overwash -Browning Cottages                    RE Hehre
Frontal Erosion - Browning Cottages                                      BA Oakley
Frontal Erosion 1939-2006 -Browning Cottages                                 2011                      2006               ...
Charlestown BeachOverwash                    RE Hehre
Charlestown Beach – Hurricane Bob 1991Washover Fan Deposition  Removal is a Bad Idea …….   Barriers Naturally Retreat    L...
Watch Hill – Hurricane Carol, 1954But… Sometimes there is no alternative                                         Providenc...
A General Coastal Barrier Model for Rhode Island
Napatree Barrier – Westerly, RI                         Little Narragansett Bay                                           ...
Napatree Barrier – Shoreline Change Maps                         2004 – Sound Side     1939 – Sound Side                  ...
Tidal   Datums   Newport                           MHHW = 3.85 ft                                3    “Zero” in some      ...
How High will theWater Be?                             Boothroyd and                                       Hehre 2008     ...
Frequency?   Next Month or     Next YearTropical StormIrene Aug 2011                   Adapted from                      N...
Lastly, Climate Change     and theFuture Shore Zone        of  Rhode Island
Greenland Outlet GlaciersChange from Polythermal to Warm Based A Key to Future Sea-Level Rise
Brathwaite, 2002
HEIGHT NOW                      Adapted from:        http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stni...
Observed Global Sea Level Rise ... Accelerating                                                                           ...
Global Sea Level Linked to Global TemperatureProjection of Sea-Level Rise 1990 - 2100     Using IPCC 2007 Temperature Proj...
Height above NOW                                   New                                 Estimate                           ...
Height above NOW                                     New      140 cm4.6 ft                                   Estimate     ...
6.2 ft   Height above NOW                             190 cm                             New Estimate High Range1.6 ft    ...
Misquamicut Headland – 100 Yr Hurricane Surge  + 3 feet Sea  Level Rise                                    Present        ...
Misquamicut – US 1A – Westerly 1938 Hurricane - Debris SwathDebris Swath after                        Barrier Sea-Level Ri...
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2003 – 2004 Orthophoto  Today
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons1938 Storm Surge + SL Rise after 1938         11 ft above MHHW  Today
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons1938 Storm Surge + SL Rise    11 ft above MHHW   Today                                Frosty ...
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2003 – 2004 Orthophoto Today
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft200 ft Barrier Migration  Projected
Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft200 ft Barrier Migration  Projected                     Frosty        ...
Wickford Marketplace – In-Place Inundation “The Bathtub Ring”  Today 10 Sept 2010                                      Ter...
End of Presentation
THE HOCKEY STICK              The Message                                     Temp lags                                   ...
Boothroyd climate change-symposium-18nov2011-final
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Boothroyd climate change-symposium-18nov2011-final

  1. 1. CLIMATE CHANGE, COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS and SEA-LEVEL RISE URI Climate Change Symposium 18 November 2011 Jon C. Boothroyd Rhode Island State Geologist, Research Professor Emeritus – Quaternary Geology -------------Rhode Island Geological Survey and Department of Geosciences College of the Environment and Life Sciences University of Rhode Island jon_boothroyd@uri.edu
  2. 2. Southern New England, Long Island, Continental Shelf ~ 26,000 yBP Map Generated By: BA Oakley and JC Boothroyd
  3. 3. THE LAST NORTH AMERICAN ICE SHEETS CORDILLERAN LAURENTIDE- You are here After Dyke & Prest, 1987
  4. 4. MALASPINA GLACIER – Northeast Gulf of Alaska- An Analog “The size of Rhode Island”
  5. 5. Oakley, 2011 You are here Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010
  6. 6. Oakley, 2011 Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010
  7. 7. Oakley, 2011 Charlestown Moraine Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010
  8. 8. Ice margins modified from:Dyke and Prest, 1987Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993Smith, 2010 Oakley, 2011
  9. 9. Ice margins modified from:Dyke and Prest, 1987Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993Smith, 2010 Oakley, 2011
  10. 10. Oakley, 2011 Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010
  11. 11. EustaticSea-Level Rise +IsostaticRebound Laurentide at Ice Sheet? Laurentide 2m.100yr-1 Ice Sheet?Block Island 2m.100yr-1 Antarctic Ice Antarctic Ice Sheet? Sheet? -1 2-5m.100yr 2-5m.100yr-1 Explanation - 390 ftOakley and Boothroyd, submitted 2011
  12. 12. -165 ft Begin Meltwater Pulse 1B Post-Glacial Lake Atlantic Ocean
  13. 13. -130 ft End Meltwater Pulse 1B Post-Glacial Lake Estuary Atlantic Ocean
  14. 14. When Contemplating Rhode Island Coastal Geologic HazardsOne Must Consider:• Extratropical Cyclones (“Nor’easters”)• Hurricanes (Tropical Cyclones)• and ……. Sea Level Rise
  15. 15. When Contemplating Rhode Island Coastal Geologic HazardsWhich Give Rise to these Processes:• Frontal Erosion – from Breaking Waves and Swash• Storm-Surge Overwash• Elevated MHHW into the Future
  16. 16. When Contemplating Rhode Island Coastal Geologic HazardsThe Scale of Processes are:• Breaking Waves – 3 to 10+ feet at shoreline• Storm-Surge Overwash – 1 to 10+ feet water depth across shore zone• Sea-Level Rise – 0.14 inches per year at present
  17. 17. The Sea May Be Rising Long Term – But….. Instantaneous Storm Surges Elevate Sea Level Now
  18. 18. Narragansett Pier Seawall – Patriots Day 2007 WPRI.com 16 apr 2007
  19. 19. Patriots Day Extratropical Storm – April 2007 Newport Tide Gauge SET UP PREDICTED http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ STORM SURGE data_menu.shtml?stn=8452660%20Newport,%20RI&type=Tide+Data
  20. 20. Overwash -Browning Cottages RE Hehre
  21. 21. Frontal Erosion - Browning Cottages BA Oakley
  22. 22. Frontal Erosion 1939-2006 -Browning Cottages 2011 2006 1939
  23. 23. Charlestown BeachOverwash RE Hehre
  24. 24. Charlestown Beach – Hurricane Bob 1991Washover Fan Deposition Removal is a Bad Idea ……. Barriers Naturally Retreat Landward and Upward Aug 1991
  25. 25. Watch Hill – Hurricane Carol, 1954But… Sometimes there is no alternative Providence Journal, 1954
  26. 26. A General Coastal Barrier Model for Rhode Island
  27. 27. Napatree Barrier – Westerly, RI Little Narragansett Bay Watch Hill Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007
  28. 28. Napatree Barrier – Shoreline Change Maps 2004 – Sound Side 1939 – Sound Side 1939 – 2004 – Ocean Side Ocean Side Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007
  29. 29. Tidal Datums Newport MHHW = 3.85 ft 3 “Zero” in some NAVD 1988 = 2.05 ft data sets 2 MSL = 1.74ft New MSL and on maps NGVD 1929 = 1.18 ft Old “MSL” 1 MLLW = 0.0 ft 0 -1 Adapted from: www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsys-cgi-bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW0493&E POCH=1983-2001
  30. 30. How High will theWater Be? Boothroyd and Hehre 2008 9.46 Feet Above MHHW Tidal Heights Newport MHHW = 3.85 ft MLLW = 0.0 ft Adapted from: www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsys-cgi- bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW0493&EPOCH=1983-2001
  31. 31. Frequency? Next Month or Next YearTropical StormIrene Aug 2011 Adapted from NOAA; USACE 1988; Hehre 2007
  32. 32. Lastly, Climate Change and theFuture Shore Zone of Rhode Island
  33. 33. Greenland Outlet GlaciersChange from Polythermal to Warm Based A Key to Future Sea-Level Rise
  34. 34. Brathwaite, 2002
  35. 35. HEIGHT NOW Adapted from: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI Boothroyd 2011
  36. 36. Observed Global Sea Level Rise ... Accelerating IPCC 18 cm rise since 1900 2001 Current rate: estimate 3.3 cm per decade Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (Science 2007)
  37. 37. Global Sea Level Linked to Global TemperatureProjection of Sea-Level Rise 1990 - 2100 Using IPCC 2007 Temperature Projections Extreme Projection IPCC 2007 Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009, PNAS, v106, p 21537-21532
  38. 38. Height above NOW New Estimate Low3.3 ft Range 100 cm1.1 ft 35 cm 2050
  39. 39. Height above NOW New 140 cm4.6 ft Estimate Mid1.4 ft 42 cm 2050
  40. 40. 6.2 ft Height above NOW 190 cm New Estimate High Range1.6 ft 50 cm 2050
  41. 41. Misquamicut Headland – 100 Yr Hurricane Surge + 3 feet Sea Level Rise Present Outdated Flood Map
  42. 42. Misquamicut – US 1A – Westerly 1938 Hurricane - Debris SwathDebris Swath after Barrier Sea-Level Rise Providence Journal, 1938
  43. 43. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2003 – 2004 Orthophoto Today
  44. 44. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons1938 Storm Surge + SL Rise after 1938 11 ft above MHHW Today
  45. 45. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons1938 Storm Surge + SL Rise 11 ft above MHHW Today Frosty Drew Foster Cove Area
  46. 46. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2003 – 2004 Orthophoto Today
  47. 47. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft200 ft Barrier Migration Projected
  48. 48. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft200 ft Barrier Migration Projected Frosty Drew Foster Cove Area
  49. 49. Wickford Marketplace – In-Place Inundation “The Bathtub Ring” Today 10 Sept 2010 Teresa Crean
  50. 50. End of Presentation
  51. 51. THE HOCKEY STICK The Message Temp lags CO2 Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age Moberg et al, 2005

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