Future of Bitcoin

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The document discusses various possible futures for Bitcoin, ranging from failure to widespread global adoption. It outlines challenges like powerful opponents in the banking and government sectors that could launch attacks on the Bitcoin protocol or price. However, it also presents potential pathways to success, such as a stable price leading to Bitcoin becoming a standard part of the global economy. Ultimately, the document considers a variety of long-term scenarios for Bitcoin through the next century as technology and adoption changes.

Economy & Finance News & Politics Technology

 4 years into the adoption curve
 X1000 price increase since 2010
 Services
 Legal / regulatory

 Future predictions affect
the present
 Bitcoin is a Bootstrapped
Currency

 Bitcoin fails
 Bitcoin stagnates
 Bitcoin wins

 Bitcoin has powerful, well-funded enemies
 Payment processors
 Banks
 Governments ?
 Various attacks are possible
 Protocol attacks (e.g. 51%)
 Price manipulation
 Regulatory attacks
 Hacking

 People lose faith in Bitcoin
 A race to the bottom – prices spiral to $0
 The way down might take a while, like
the way up

 Bitcoin prices reach a stable price level
 It becomes some small percent of the world
economy
 Used for some purposes, mostly on the
internet
 Growth in user base and monetary value halts

 Bitcoin is useful even if not “everybody” is
using it.
 Bitcoin users can still:
 Hold their own money
 Send it to whoever they want
 Use advanced features
 People move in and out of the Bitcoin
economy at will

 More and more people see the benefits
 They trade Fiat money for BTC
 Bitcoin is a major part of the world
economy

 Banks and payment processors
cooperate instead of compete
 Insured BTC deposits
 Government issues Fiat backed by BTC
(Gold Standard 2.0)

 Bitcoin becomes boring
 Several great wallets to choose from
 Everything JustWorks

 Buy Bitcoins at your supermarket / bank
 Distributed exchanges
 Lower exchange fees
 Managed wallets

 Bitcoin is just the first cryptocurrency
 Ripple is also a competitor
 Maybe something else entirely?

 Block reward drops to zero around 2050
 Transaction fee structure change
 Hash function upgraded
(Quantum resistant)
 Other changes (e.g. micro-satoshi)
 Some things remain fixed (21 million coins)

 https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses
 http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/2259/what-would-be-an-
estimate-of-the-value-gained-if-the-whole-world-started-using-b
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time.png
 https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardfork_Wishlist
 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
 http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-
users?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1
&timespan=all&scale=1&address=

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The Bitcoin frenzy seems to have reached new heights lately, spurred by a growing user base, price volatility, and the rapidly evolving network of Bitcoin-related companies.1 Reports of big investments in "mining" equipment and the expanding ecosystem supporting the protocol remind us in many ways of a gold rush — an analogy made easier by Bitcoin's other similarities to the precious metal. It's hard to say whether this excitement is warranted, but it's equally hard to deny Bitcoin's increasing relevance to businesses and the broader economy. Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, may have implications not only for the technology industry, where much of the current action is concentrated, but also other industries from retail businesses to financial services. Read this paper to learn about Bitcoin in the context of the financial services industry, particularly payments and banks. What is it about this cryptocurrency that is inspiring such attention and what might the future of cryptocurrencies mean for traditional financial services? 1 Ashlee Vance and Brad Stone, "The Bitcoin-Mining Arms Race Heats Up," Bloomberg BusinessWeek, January 9, 2014, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-09/bitcoin-mining-chips-gear-computing-groups-competition-heats-up. For more, visit: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/Industries/Banking-Securities-Financial-Services/center-for-financial-services/758660679ebb4410VgnVCM2000003356f70aRCRD.htm

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