Leadership Decision Making Process 052311


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  • Edmund Gibson Ross (December 7, 1826 – May 8, 1907) was a politician who represented the state of Kansas after the American Civil War and was later governor of the New Mexico Territory. His vote against convicting of President Andrew Johnson of "high crimes and misdemeanors" allowed Johnson to stay in office by the margin of one vote. As the seventh of seven Republican U.S. Senators to break with his party, Ross proved to be the person whose decision would result in conviction or acquittal. When he chose the latter, the vote of 35-19 in favor of Johnson's conviction failed to reach the required two-thirds vote. Ross lost his bid for re-election two years later.
  • Leadership Decision Making Process 052311

    1. 1. ASBO MD & DC Annual Spring Conference May 23, 2011 Rick Gay, CPPO, RSBO Purchasing Manager Baltimore County Public Schools ISO 9001/2008 CertifiedNIGP Outstanding Agency Accreditation Achievement Award – OA4 2011 Candidate for 2012 ASBO International Board of Directors
    2. 2. Decision making is a key role for any manager or leader. Surprisingly many people struggle when it comes to making decisions. This might be due to:  Fear of failure  Lack of a structured approach  Procrastinating  Lack of clarity5/23/2011 2
    3. 3.  Sometimes shooting from the hip, good leaders can make decisions quickly -- often with incomplete data. As Theodore Roosevelt said, "In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing."  Rarely is a leader able to get 100 percent of the information needed for a decision. Typically it is "60 percent and go" or "80 percent and go."5/23/2011 3
    4. 4.  “We’ve never done it that way”  “We’re not ready for that yet”  “Were doing all right without it”  ”We tried it once and it didn’t work”  “It costs too much”  “That’s not our responsibility”  “It won’t work”5/23/2011 4
    5. 5.  Every decision is made to achieve some kind of goal or objective.  So, the next step would involve charting down the goals that you want your decision to achieve.  At this stage, it is also necessary to make a note of the consequences that are not desirable once the decision is made.5/23/2011 5
    6. 6.  Constituents perspective: To achieve our vision, how should we appear to constituents?  Financial perspective: To succeed financially, how should we appear to our stakeholders?  Internal business process: To satisfy stakeholders and constituents, what business processes must we excel at?  Learning and growth perspective: To achieve our vision, how will we sustain our ability to change and improve?5/23/2011 6
    7. 7.  Defining the Problem  Develop Alternatives  Evaluate the Alternatives  Assess the implications  Explore different perspectives  Get clear on your ideal outcome  Weigh up pros and cons  Make the Decision and Act  Implement the Solution  Monitor your Solution5/23/2011 7
    8. 8. 5/23/2011 8
    9. 9.  The first step involved in a decision making process is to understand the importance of making the decision.  Define the problem precisely.  State the underlying problem that has to be solved. You also have to clearly state the outcome or goal that you desire after you have made the decision.  Know specifically who said, ordered, or demanded what.  Don’t settle for secondhand information.  Get Details.5/23/2011 9
    10. 10.  Stating your goals would help you in clarifying your thoughts. You would have to make a list of some important factors like:  Time required to make the decision  Result of making a good and a bad decision  People who would help you  Who will face the consequences of the decision?  Affect of the decision on you and the people around you  What will happen if the decision is not made?5/23/2011 10
    11. 11.  A tool that identifies the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats of an organization.  SWOT assesses what an organization can and cannot do as well as its potential opportunities and threats.  The method of SWOT analysis is to take the information from an environmental analysis and separate it into internal (strengths and weaknesses) and external issues (opportunities and threats).  SWOT analysis determines what may assist the agency in accomplishing its objectives, and what obstacles must be overcome or minimized to achieve desired results.5/23/2011 11
    12. 12.  When using SWOT analysis, be realistic about the strengths and weaknesses of your organization.  Distinguish between where your organization is today, and where it could be in the future.  Also remember to be specific by avoiding gray areas and always analyze in relation to the competition (i.e., are you better or worse than the competition?).  Finally, keep your SWOT analysis short and simple, and avoid complexity and over-analysis since much of the information is subjective.5/23/2011 12
    13. 13.  Be realistic about the strengths and weaknesses of your organization.  The Analysis should distinguish between where your organization is today, and where it could be in the future.  Be specific. Avoid gray areas.  Always analyze in relation to your competition, i.e., better than or worse than your competition .5/23/2011 13
    14. 14.  Keep your SWOT short and simple - but only as short and simple as the application or situation demands - it is about fitness for purpose’.  Avoid unnecessary complexity and over analysis.  There is no point listing an opportunity (O) if the same opportunity is available to competitors.  It is pointless to say you have strengths (S) if your competitors have the same.5/23/2011 14
    15. 15.  An unclear goal  Maintaining too narrow of a focus  Neglecting input from others  Performing an analysis only once  Reliance on SWOT as a holistic diagnostic strategy5/23/2011 15
    16. 16. POSITIVE/ HELPFUL NEGATIVE/ HARMFUL to achieving the goal to achieving the goal Strengths Weaknesses INTERNAL Origin Things that are good Things that are bad facts/ factors of the now, maintain them, now, remedy, change or organization build on them and use stop them. as leverage Opportunities Threats EXTERNAL Origin Things that are good for Things that are bad for facts/ factors of the the future, prioritize the future, put in plans environment in which the them, capture them, to manage them or organization operates build on them and counter them optimize5/23/2011 16
    17. 17.  Your specialist marketing expertise.  A new, innovative product or service.  Location of your business.  Quality processes and procedures.  Any other aspect of your business that adds value to your product or service.  Positive tangible and intangible attributes, internal to an organization.  They are within the organization’s control.  What do you do well? Is there anything you do better than most? Better than anyone else?5/23/2011 17
    18. 18.  Lack of marketing expertise.  Undifferentiated products or services (i.e. in relation to your competitors).  Location of your business.  Poor quality goods or services.  Damaged reputation.  Factors that are within an organization’s control that detract from its ability to attain the desired goal.  Which areas might the organization improve?  What should be improved? What do you do poorly? What should you avoid, based on mistakes in the past?5/23/2011 18
    19. 19.  A developing market such as the Internet.  Mergers, joint ventures or strategic alliances.  Moving into new market segments that offer improved opportunity to change.  External attractive factors that represent the reason for an organization to exist and develop.  A New legislative mandate or federal program  Cost containment measures  What opportunities exist in the environment, which will propel the organization? Identify them by their “time frames”5/23/2011 19
    20. 20.  A new competitor in your home market.  A competitor has a new, innovative product or service.  Competitors have superior access to channels of distribution.  Taxation is introduced or increased on your product or service.  External factors, beyond an organization’s control, which could place the organization mission or operation at risk.  The organization may benefit by having contingency plans to address them if they should occur.  Classify them by their “seriousness” and “probability of occurrence”.5/23/2011 20
    21. 21. 5/23/2011 21
    22. 22.  The situation of making a decision arises because there are many alternatives available for it.  Hence, the next step after defining the main problem would be to state the alternatives available for that particular situation.  You do not have to restrict yourself to thinking about the very obvious options, rather you can use your creative skills and come out with alternatives that may look a little irrelevant.  This is important because sometimes solutions can come out from these out-of-the-box ideas.  You would also have to do adequate research to come up with the necessary facts that would aid in solving the problem.5/23/2011 22
    23. 23.  For a person to make a decision, he or she has to be confronted with two or more options.  So, this requires you to make a draft stating the options that are available to you.  One can also create some options that do not exist in reality. Doing this may help you find some solution to your problem and make the decision process a little easier.  Once you have listed the available options, you have to examine each option and make a section for options that seem to be very promising and those that seem not so relevant.  However, you have to be careful not to remove any option from your list before it is analyzed in detail.5/23/2011 23
    24. 24.  Brainstorming is a process for developing creative solutions to problems. Brainstorming works by focusing on a problem, and then deliberately coming up with as many solutions as possible and by pushing the ideas as far as possible.  One of the reasons it is so effective is that the participants not only come up with new ideas in a session, but also spark off from associations with other peoples ideas by developing and refining them.  conference technique of solving specific problems, amassing information, stimulating creative thinking, developing new ideas, etc., by unrestrained and spontaneous participation in discussion.  A method of shared problem solving in which all members of a group spontaneously contribute ideas.  A similar process undertaken by a person to solve a problem by rapidly generating a variety of possible solutions.5/23/2011 24
    25. 25.  Collect as many ideas as possible from all participants with no criticisms or judgments made while ideas are being generated.  All ideas are welcome no matter how silly or far out they seem. Be creative. The more ideas the better because at this point you dont know what might work.  Absolutely no discussion takes place during the brainstorming activity. Talking about the ideas will take place after brainstorming is complete.  Do not criticize or judge. Dont even groan, frown, or laugh. All ideas are equally valid at this point.  Do build on others ideas.  Do write all ideas on a flipchart or board so the whole group can easily see them.  Set a time limit (e.g., 30 minutes) for the brainstorming.5/23/2011 25
    26. 26.  One team member should review the topic of the brainstorm using "why", "how", or "what" questions.  Everyone should think about the question silently for a few moments. Each person might want to jot down his/her ideas on a sheet of paper.  Everyone suggests ideas by calling them out. Another way is to go around the room and have each person read an idea from his/her list until all ideas have been written on the board or flipchart. (Note: The team member in charge of the brainstorming session should be enforcing the rules.)  One team member writes down all ideas on board or flipchart.5/23/2011 26
    27. 27.  Reverse brain-storming is a good technique for creative problem solving, and can lead to robust solutions.  Be sure to follow the basic rules of brainstorming to explore possible solutions to the full.  Reverse brainstorming helps you solve problems by combining brainstorming and reversal techniques.  To use this technique, you start with one of two "reverse" questions:  Instead of asking, "How do I solve or prevent this problem?" ask, "How could I possibly cause the problem?"  Instead of asking "How do I achieve these results?" ask,"How could I possibly achieve the opposite effect?"5/23/2011 27
    28. 28.  Clearly identify the problem or challenge, and write it down.  Reverse the problem or challenge by asking: "How could I possibly cause the problem?", or "How could I possibly achieve the opposite effect?"  Brainstorm the reverse problem to generate reverse solution ideas. Allow the brainstorm ideas to flow freely. Do not reject anything at this stage.  Once you have brainstormed all the ideas to solve the reverse problem, now reverse these into solution ideas for the original problem or challenge.  Evaluate these solution ideas. Can you see a potential solution? Can you see attributes of a potential solution?5/23/2011 28
    29. 29. 5/23/2011 29
    30. 30.  Lay out possible courses of action. Consider courses of action in view of your organizations values. Consider the consequences of your decision.5/23/2011 30
    31. 31. At this step, you have to develop some criteria, according to which you have to compare the various options available to you. These criteria are conditions that would help you in evaluating the different options and would aid you in Making the decision.5/23/2011 31
    32. 32. Once you have decided on the criteria, it is time for analysis of each option according to the set conditions. Make a table, where the criteria appears in columns and options appear in rows. Rate each option with a numerical digit, as to how it would be beneficial for each criteria.5/23/2011 32
    33. 33. This can be said to be the one of the most important stages of the decision making process. This is the stage where you have to analyze each alternative you have come up with. You have to find out the advantages and disadvantages of each option. This can be done based on the research you have done on that particular alternative. at this stage, you can also filter out the options that you think are impossible or do not serve your purpose. Rating each option with a numerical digit would also help in the filtration process.5/23/2011 33
    34. 34. After rating the available options according to criteria, try to combine different options that are available to you and see whether you can come up with a better solution, instead of just choosing one option. You also have to summarize the results you got for each option to make the final decision.5/23/2011 34
    35. 35. Step 4 is where you have to analyze the different options in detail. Your analysis would be on the basis of what would be the result of each option available to you. You can take the help of different people at this stage, asking them to give their opinion on each option. Here, you would be able to recognize certain options that require more research or contemplation. This stage is a filtration process where the options that seem to be irrelevant should be taken out of the list and only the best possible ones retained.5/23/2011 35
    36. 36.  Groupthink is a phenomenon that occurs when the desire for group consensus overrides peoples common sense desire to present alternatives, critique a position, or express an unpopular opinion.  The desire for group cohesion effectively drives out good decision-making and problem solving.  Two well-known examples of Groupthink in action are the  Challenger Space Shuttle disaster  The Bay of Pigs invasion5/23/2011 36
    37. 37. The term "Groupthink" was coined by Irving Janis in 1972 when he was researching why a team reaches an excellent decision one time, and a disastrous one the next. What he found was that a lack of conflict or opposing viewpoints led to poor decisions, because alternatives were not fully analyzed, and because groups did not gather enough information to make an informed decision.5/23/2011 37
    38. 38.  A strong, persuasive group leader.  A high level of group cohesion.  Intense pressure from the outside to make a good decision.  Groupthink-like behavior is found in many situations and across many types of groups and team settings.  Groupthink can severely undermine the value of a groups work and, at its worst, it can cost people their lives.  On a lesser scale, it can stifle teamwork, and leave all but the most vocal team members disillusioned and dissatisfied.  Teams are capable of being much more effective than individuals but, when Groupthink sets in, the opposite can be true.5/23/2011 38
    39. 39. 5/23/2011 39
    40. 40. This is the stage where the hard work you have put in analyzing would lead you to. The Evaluation process would help you in looking at the available options clearly and you have to pick which you think is the most applicable. You can also combine some of the alternatives to come out with a better solution instead of just picking out one of them.5/23/2011 40
    41. 41.  When all the ideas have been recorded, combine them as much as possible, but only when the original contributors agree.  Number all of the ideas.  Each member votes on the ideas by making a list of the numbers of the ideas he/she thinks are important or should be discussed further. This list should contain no more than one-third of the total number of ideas.  After counting the votes, cross out ideas with only one or two votes. Then vote again until only a few ideas remain(i.e., 3 or 4). If there is no clear-cut winner, then vote again or discuss the remaining ideas and determine which idea best answers the original question.5/23/2011 41
    42. 42.  This is the final stage, where you have to make the ultimate decision.  Before you do this it is important to go through all the steps and recheck all the information. This would be beneficial for delaying the time of taking the final decision, if you find any missing information.  One very important thing that you have to keep in mind is that every decision you take would have some level of risk.  Knowing the potential risk involved in the decision one makes would aid in preparing for the problem that arises with the decision.5/23/2011 42
    43. 43. 5/23/2011 43
    44. 44. The next obvious step after choosing an option would be implementing the solution. Just making the decision would not give the result one wants. Rather, you have to carry out on the decision you have made. This is a very crucial step because all the people involved in the implementation of a solution should know about the implications of making the decision. This is very essential for the decision to yield successful results.5/23/2011 44
    45. 45. 5/23/2011 45
    46. 46. Making the decision and implementing it is not the end of the decision making process; it is very important to monitor your decision on a Regular basis. At this stage, you have to keep a close eye on the progress of the solution taken and also whether it has led to the results you expected.5/23/2011 46
    47. 47.  Improving practical thinking  Applying guidelines  Moving thinking upstream  Finding hidden assumptions  Keeping track of unexpected events  Thinking from varied perspectives  Applying practical reasoning  Adapting to the situation5/23/2011 47
    48. 48.  Practical thinking captures the strengths of how we think for everyday problems, calling on experience more than formal models.  Practical thinking includes creative and critical elements.  Creative thinking techniques help to generate new information.  Critical thinking brings out differences that would normally not be obvious. Both types of thinking help to fill in gaps in knowledge and resolve uncertainty.  Signs of a practical thinker include a willingness to try alternate approaches to thinking, being open to others’ positions, being prepared to think about issues instead of ignoring or dismissing them, and asking insightful questions.  The qualities of a critical thinker include seeking the truth, an open mindedness, analytical, systematic, self –confident, inquisitive, and mature.5/23/2011 48
    49. 49.  There is no perfect set of guidelines for success.  Improvement requires self-reflection and hard work to adopt new habits.  Making one’s thinking habits more deliberate will prompt self-reflection and through practice eventually make the improved thinking less effortful.  Improved thinking strategies will create greater self-confidence, making it more likely that challenges will be addressed rather than ignored.5/23/2011 49
    50. 50.  Thinking ahead and predicting potential ways that a situation assessment may be wrong or that a course of action could depart from what’s anticipated will make one better prepared to handle the unknown.  Having identified and thought about various contingencies will better prepare you for various future events.5/23/2011 50
    51. 51. Coming up with reasons against a preferred conclusion or option instead of in favor of that conclusion or option will improve thoroughness of reasoning and give you a basis for contingencies that may occur.5/23/2011 51
    52. 52.  A natural tendency is to discount information when it does not fit into our expectations.  Over time, accumulated unexpected information can cause a shift in your understanding of a situation.  The first step in this direction is to pay special attention to information that does not fit into expectations.5/23/2011 52
    53. 53.  Looking at problems from different perspectives can improve one’s understanding of a situation, solution goals, and available options.  Taking multiple perspectives helps to understand situations, find new or creative solutions, and reasons about solutions.  Any shortcoming or restriction in one’s perspective is a possible source of problems in reasoning.  Problem solvers can adopt different perspectives by taking on the role of another, using new/different frames of reference, shifting attention or importance about various problem elements, reversing the goal, etc.  These require an openness of mind to be willing to apply a different perspective and practice in flexibility at shifting perspectives.5/23/2011 53
    54. 54.  There are different ways to improve reasoning ability.  One way is to have a standard set of questions to ask yourself when faced with uncertainty, when there is an over-willingness to accept what is heard, or when there is a lack of critical thinking. One set of such questions is the following:  What if? (e.g., what if this assessment were not the case?)  What else? (e.g., what else could be happening?)  So what? (e.g., is there a practical difference?)  What specifics? (e.g., can claims be confirmed with specific information?)  Is there a weak link? (e.g., are there any inconsistencies or confusions?)  What is unexpected? (e.g., is there incomplete or poor reasoning?)5/23/2011 54
    55. 55.  By increasing the awareness of your own thinking, mental capabilities can be allocated to the problems at hand.  One needs to learn how you think, the patterns and strategies that are used and that have developed naturally throughout your life.  Being better in touch with these can give you what is needed to increase the chances for successful problem resolution.  To guide thinking we should think deliberately about how to solve problems and decide.  This process is similar to decision triage. Use the GO-FITE-WIN questions to remind how to plan your thinking:  What are Goals and Obstacles of thinking?  How Familiar is the situation?  How Important is it?  How much Time is available?  How much Effort is required for an acceptable level of effort?  Whats Important Now?5/23/2011 55
    56. 56. 5/23/2011 56