Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at Gre...
Existing Home Sales
20% cumulative increase over 2 years
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000...
Median Home Price
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000

$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2...
Albuquerque Housing Statistics
• Closed Sales through October
Up +19% year-to-date from 1 year ago

• Median Prices
Up +3 ...
Santa Fe Housing Statistics
• Closed Sales through Q3
Up +12% year-to-date from 1 year ago

• Median Prices
Up +16% from 1...
Income Trends
2% to 4% cumulative increase over 2 years
$70,000
$60,000

Household Income

$50,000
$40,000

Family Income
...
2013 - Jan

2011 - Jan

2009 - Jan

2007 - Jan

2005 - Jan

2003 - Jan

2001 - Jan

1999 - Jan

1997 - Jan

1995 - Jan

19...
2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

19...
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2...
0
Jan 14 2000
Jul 14 2000
Jan 12 2001
Jul 13 2001
Jan 11 2002
Jul 12 2002
Jan 10 2003
Jul 11 2003
Jan 9 2004
Jul 9 2004
Ja...
2013 - Jul

2013 - Apr

2013 - Jan

10%

2012 - Oct

2012 - Jul

2012 - Apr

2012 - Jan

2011 - Oct

2011 - Jul

2011 - Ap...
500

-100

-200
2001 - Q1
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q1
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q3
2004 - Q1
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2006 -...
Jan 7 2000
Jul 7 2000
Jan 5 2001
Jul 6 2001
Jan 4 2002
Jul 5 2002
Jan 3 2003
Jul 4 2003
Jan 2 2004
Jul 2 2004
Dec 31 2004
...
Ready to Open Credit?
(Average Credit Scores of Approved Loans)
Normal

2009 to 2012

If Normal

Fannie

720

760 to 770

...
But Will Washington Allow It?
• Washington Policies so far … Too Restrictive
– Rising g-fees and FHA insurance premiums?
–...
What is PATH? … Hensarling’s Ideology
(Protecting American Taxpayers and Homeowners?)
• For-profit Fannie and Freddie were...
Latest Market Trends
Pending Sales (Contracts, not Closings)
(Seasonally Adjusted)
130
120
110

100
90
80
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007...
2008 - Jan
2008 - Apr
2008 - Jul
2008 - Oct
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2...
Government Shutdown Did Not Help
IRS Forms Along with FHA and USDA Closures
Purchase Apps Fell with Closures
20%
15%
10%
5...
1964 - Jan
1966 - Jan
1968 - Jan
1970 - Jan
1972 - Jan
1974 - Jan
1976 - Jan
1978 - Jan
1980 - Jan
1982 - Jan
1984 - Jan
1...
2013 - Q3

2012 - Q4

2012 - Q1

2011 - Q2

2010 - Q3

2009 - Q4

2009 - Q1

2008 - Q2

2007 - Q3

2006 - Q4

2006 - Q1

2...
Housing Starts … Need to Reach 1.5 million
soon or persistent housing shortage
multifamily

single-family

2500

Thousand ...
Albuquerque Area Housing Permits
(year-to-date)
8000

7000
6000
5000

4000
3000
2000

1000
0
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2...
Santa Fe County Housing Permits
(year-to-date)
700
600
500

400
300
200
100
0
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 20...
-5

-10

-15

-20

-25
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
...
1995 - Q1
1995 - Q4
1996 - Q3
1997 - Q2
1998 - Q1
1998 - Q4
1999 - Q3
2000 - Q2
2001 - Q1
2001 - Q4
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q2
20...
GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no
Fresh Recession
(Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery)
% growth...
140000

2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005...
Albuquerque Area Total Jobs
410
400
390
380
370
360
350
2000 - Jan

2002 - Jan

2004 - Jan

2006 - Jan

2008 - Jan

2010 -...
Santa Fe Area Total Jobs
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
2000 - Jan

2002 - Jan

2004 - Jan

2006 - Jan

2008 - Jan

2010 - ...
Forecast
Essentially Same as the one made
last year in November 2012
Forecast #1 (in 2012):
Inflation will be Notably Higher by 2015
• No Threatening Inflation Signs for 2013

• But Inflation...
-1
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - No...
Forecast #2
(Rising Mortgage Rates to 5.3% by end of 2014)
2013
forecast
11%

2014
forecast
0%

Median Price

11%

6%

Dol...
Home Price Forecast
by Wall Street Journal Economists Panel
Year

WSJ Home Price Forecast

2014

5%

Robert Shiller : “Hom...
Forecast #3: More Unequal Wealth
Distribution
• Renters do not accumulate wealth
• Renter population rising
• Homeowners b...
41,000

39,000

1980 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1982 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1988 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1990 -...
80,000

1980 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1982 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1988 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q1
1991...
Wealth Distribution
(Federal Reserve data on median net worth)
$300,000

Bubble Crash

$250,000
1998

$200,000

2001

$150...
What Homebuyers Want?
Slightly More Preference For Condo or
Apartment Living Than In 2011
Housing Type Preference (2013):

Housing Type Preferen...
Privacy, Walkability, Schools
Most Important in Deciding Where to Live
Most Important Factors in Deciding Where to Live:
P...
Walkability and Age-Diversity
Gaining in Importance
Changes in Important Factors in Deciding Where to Live
50%
40%

+1
46%...
What Buyers Want Most From Their Agent
Determine
what
comparable
homes were
selling for,
8%
Help with the
price
negotiatio...
REALTOR® Median Gross Income
$60,000
$50,000

$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2...
Annual Membership
(at year-end)
1,500,000
1,400,000
1,300,000
1,200,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,00...
For Daily Update and Analysis

• Twitter
@NAR_Research
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Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun

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Dr Yun, NAR's cheif economist was in town last week and gave an excellent presentation about the Albuquerque real estate market and how it compared to other markets and the nation. See his slideshow here

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Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun

  1. 1. Real Estate and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at Greater Albuquerque Association of REALTORS® Albuquerque, NM December 5, 2013
  2. 2. Existing Home Sales 20% cumulative increase over 2 years 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  3. 3. Median Home Price $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  4. 4. Albuquerque Housing Statistics • Closed Sales through October Up +19% year-to-date from 1 year ago • Median Prices Up +3 to 5% from 1 year ago • Dollar Volume … up +23% from a year ago • Inventory … +9% from a year ago
  5. 5. Santa Fe Housing Statistics • Closed Sales through Q3 Up +12% year-to-date from 1 year ago • Median Prices Up +16% from 1 year ago • Dollar Volume … up +18% from a year ago • Inventory … +9% from a year ago
  6. 6. Income Trends 2% to 4% cumulative increase over 2 years $70,000 $60,000 Household Income $50,000 $40,000 Family Income $30,000 $20,000 Disposable Income per person $10,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $0
  7. 7. 2013 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2001 - Jan 1999 - Jan 1997 - Jan 1995 - Jan 1993 - Jan 1991 - Jan 1989 - Jan 1987 - Jan 1985 - Jan 1983 - Jan 1981 - Jan 1979 - Jan 1977 - Jan 1975 - Jan 1973 - Jan 1971 - Jan Falling Affordability to 5-year Low But still 5th best in 40 years 250 200 150 100 50 0
  8. 8. 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 Housing Affordability Index (Record High in 2012) 250 200 150 100 50 0
  9. 9. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul Inevitable Rise in Mortgage Rates will further hurt Affordability 9% (30-yr rate have been below 6% for 5 years) 8 7 6 5 4 3
  10. 10. 0 Jan 14 2000 Jul 14 2000 Jan 12 2001 Jul 13 2001 Jan 11 2002 Jul 12 2002 Jan 10 2003 Jul 11 2003 Jan 9 2004 Jul 9 2004 Jan 7 2005 Jul 8 2005 Jan 6 2006 Jul 7 2006 Jan 5 2007 Jul 6 2007 Jan 4 2008 Jul 4 2008 Jan 2 2009 Jul 3 2009 Jan 1 2010 Jul 2 2010 Dec 31 2010 Jul 1 2011 Dec 30 2011 Jun 29 2012 Dec 28 2012 Jun 28 2013 Refinances will Collapse in 2014 (to at least 15-year low) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000
  11. 11. 2013 - Jul 2013 - Apr 2013 - Jan 10% 2012 - Oct 2012 - Jul 2012 - Apr 2012 - Jan 2011 - Oct 2011 - Jul 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jan 2010 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2010 - Apr 2010 - Jan 2009 - Oct 2009 - Jul 2009 - Apr 40% 2009 - Jan 2008 - Oct All-Cash Buyers Stayed High … even when mortgages were cheap (Cash share as % of total home sales) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Normal Range 5% 0%
  12. 12. 500 -100 -200 2001 - Q1 2001 - Q3 2002 - Q1 2002 - Q3 2003 - Q1 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q1 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q3 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q3 2011 - Q1 2011 - Q3 2012 - Q1 2012 - Q3 2013 - Q1 Financial Industry Profits from Low Rates and Refis Now What … Boost Purchase Apps? $ billion 400 300 200 100 0
  13. 13. Jan 7 2000 Jul 7 2000 Jan 5 2001 Jul 6 2001 Jan 4 2002 Jul 5 2002 Jan 3 2003 Jul 4 2003 Jan 2 2004 Jul 2 2004 Dec 31 2004 Jul 1 2005 Dec 30 2005 Jun 30 2006 Dec 29 2006 Jun 29 2007 Dec 28 2007 Jun 27 2008 Dec 26 2008 Jun 26 2009 Dec 25 2009 Jun 25 2010 Dec 24 2010 Jun 24 2011 Dec 23 2011 Jun 22 2012 Dec 21 2012 Jun 21 2013 No Increase in Mortgages for Home Purchases during 2-year Recovery; Will Rise in 2014? 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
  14. 14. Ready to Open Credit? (Average Credit Scores of Approved Loans) Normal 2009 to 2012 If Normal Fannie 720 760 to 770 720 Freddie 720 760 to 770 720 FHA 650 680 to 700 660 15% to 20% Higher Sales
  15. 15. But Will Washington Allow It? • Washington Policies so far … Too Restrictive – Rising g-fees and FHA insurance premiums? – Uncertainty about QRM down payment requirement? … Dodd-Frank? – Too many Lawsuits? … Runaway DOJ? • Mortgages Have Performed Outstandingly – Not because of Washington policies – But because of home price increases • New Restriction with PATH?
  16. 16. What is PATH? … Hensarling’s Ideology (Protecting American Taxpayers and Homeowners?) • For-profit Fannie and Freddie were Arrogant • Today’s Fannie and Freddie have had reforms under government control • Remove Government Guarantee on Mortgages • 30-yr Fixed Rate Mortgages … Hard to get and higher rates • Large Banks will do Securitization … Small Banks at Risk • Market becomes excessively pro-cyclical • Large Banks have FDIC … taxpayer risk … vulnerable to nationalization and, if so, government credit allocation • Global capital could decide to go elsewhere rather than the U.S. …. Other countries grow faster than the U.S.
  17. 17. Latest Market Trends
  18. 18. Pending Sales (Contracts, not Closings) (Seasonally Adjusted) 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan Source: NAR
  19. 19. 2008 - Jan 2008 - Apr 2008 - Jul 2008 - Oct 2009 - Jan 2009 - Apr 2009 - Jul 2009 - Oct 2010 - Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 - Jul 2010 - Oct 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jul 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012 - Apr 2012 - Jul 2012 - Oct 2013 - Jan 2013 - Apr 2013 - Jul Buyer and Seller Traffic How Much from Gov’t Shutdown and Dysfunction? Buyer Seller 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  20. 20. Government Shutdown Did Not Help IRS Forms Along with FHA and USDA Closures Purchase Apps Fell with Closures 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Gov't Conv Percent Change From Prior Week Rates Rose with Treasuries 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% Déjà vu in January?…..February? 30-yr FRM
  21. 21. 1964 - Jan 1966 - Jan 1968 - Jan 1970 - Jan 1972 - Jan 1974 - Jan 1976 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1980 - Jan 1982 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1986 - Jan 1988 - Jan 1990 - Jan 1992 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1998 - Jan 2000 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jan New Home Inventory (Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at near 50-year low) 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
  22. 22. 2013 - Q3 2012 - Q4 2012 - Q1 2011 - Q2 2010 - Q3 2009 - Q4 2009 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2007 - Q3 2006 - Q4 2006 - Q1 2005 - Q2 2004 - Q3 2003 - Q4 2003 - Q1 2002 - Q2 2001 - Q3 2000 - Q4 2000 - Q1 Shadow Inventory in NM and AZ (Mortgages Late 90+ day or in foreclosure process) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
  23. 23. Housing Starts … Need to Reach 1.5 million soon or persistent housing shortage multifamily single-family 2500 Thousand units (annualized) 2000 Long-term Average 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
  24. 24. Albuquerque Area Housing Permits (year-to-date) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  25. 25. Santa Fe County Housing Permits (year-to-date) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  26. 26. -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul Rising Home Prices Because of Lack of Inventory (% change from one year ago) Blue = NAR Median Price Red = Case-Shiller Index 20 15 10 5 0
  27. 27. 1995 - Q1 1995 - Q4 1996 - Q3 1997 - Q2 1998 - Q1 1998 - Q4 1999 - Q3 2000 - Q2 2001 - Q1 2001 - Q4 2002 - Q3 2003 - Q2 2004 - Q1 2004 - Q4 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q2 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q4 2008 - Q3 2009 - Q2 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q4 2011 - Q3 2012 - Q2 2013 - Q1 330 Phoenix, Albuquerque, Santa Fe Home Price Index 280 230 180 130 80
  28. 28. GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no Fresh Recession (Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery) % growth from one year ago % growth from one year ago 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
  29. 29. 140000 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - May U.S. Total Payroll Jobs (8 million lost … 7 million gained) In thousands 138000 136000 134000 132000 130000 128000 126000 124000
  30. 30. Albuquerque Area Total Jobs 410 400 390 380 370 360 350 2000 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jan
  31. 31. Santa Fe Area Total Jobs 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 2000 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jan
  32. 32. Forecast Essentially Same as the one made last year in November 2012
  33. 33. Forecast #1 (in 2012): Inflation will be Notably Higher by 2015 • No Threatening Inflation Signs for 2013 • But Inflation rises to 4% to 6% in 2015 • Well above Fed’s preferred rate of 2% • But not in double-digits as in 1970s
  34. 34. -1 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (the biggest weight to Consumer Price Index) Owners' Equivalent Rent Renters' Rent 5 4 3 2 1 0
  35. 35. Forecast #2 (Rising Mortgage Rates to 5.3% by end of 2014) 2013 forecast 11% 2014 forecast 0% Median Price 11% 6% Dollar Volume Estimate +22% +6% Existing Home Sales
  36. 36. Home Price Forecast by Wall Street Journal Economists Panel Year WSJ Home Price Forecast 2014 5% Robert Shiller : “Homes are still affordable … we do not have extravagant mindset today”
  37. 37. Forecast #3: More Unequal Wealth Distribution • Renters do not accumulate wealth • Renter population rising • Homeowners build wealth after buying at low prices • Stagnant homeowner population • Tight Credit hinders ‘good’ renters from becoming homeowners • Investors becoming increasing share of property owners
  38. 38. 41,000 39,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 Renter Households In thousands 37,000 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000
  39. 39. 80,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow In thousands 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000
  40. 40. Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve data on median net worth) $300,000 Bubble Crash $250,000 1998 $200,000 2001 $150,000 2004 2007 $100,000 2010 $50,000 2014 $0 Renter 2014 Forecast by NAR Owner • • • • Dodd-Frank? PATH? Lawsuits? Legacy?
  41. 41. What Homebuyers Want?
  42. 42. Slightly More Preference For Condo or Apartment Living Than In 2011 Housing Type Preference (2013): Housing Type Preference (2011): Condo or Apt. 8% 14% Condo or Apt. 5% Single Family Attached 7% 4% 6% Single Family Attached 76% Single Family Detached House 80% Single Family Detached House Right now, if you could choose, which of the following would you prefer to live in: Slide 42
  43. 43. Privacy, Walkability, Schools Most Important in Deciding Where to Live Most Important Factors in Deciding Where to Live: Privacy from neighbors 46% Sidewalks and places to take walks 37% High-quality public schools 43% 21% Being within a short commute to work 25% Living in a place that’s away from it all 21% 0% 68% 66% 44% 28% Public transportation within walking distance of your home Somewhat Important 44% 23% 34% 20% 65% 37% 34% 40% 74% 69% 40% 23% Living in a community with people at all stages of life adults, families with children and older people An established neighborhood with older homes and mature trees 80% 29% 28% Easy access to the highway 86% 43% 45% Being within an easy walk of other places and things in the community Very Important 40% 65% 59% 55% 60% 80% 100% In deciding where to live, indicate how important having each of the following would be to you: very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important. Slide 43
  44. 44. Walkability and Age-Diversity Gaining in Importance Changes in Important Factors in Deciding Where to Live 50% 40% +1 46% 45% +1 45% 44% +6 37% 30% -8 36% +4 31% 28% 24% 20% +8 +2 23% 28% 23% 21% 15% 10% 0% Privacy from neighbors High-quality public schools Sidewalks and places to take walks Being within an Being within a easy walk of short commute other places and to work things in the community Very Important - 2013 A community Easy access to the with people at highway all stages of life adults, families with children and older people Very Important - 2011 Q.47 In deciding where to live, indicate how important having each of the following would be to you: very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important. Slide 44
  45. 45. What Buyers Want Most From Their Agent Determine what comparable homes were selling for, 8% Help with the price negotiations, 11% Help with paperwork, 7% Help find and arrange financing, 3% Help buyer negotiate the terms of sale, 12% Help find the right home to purchase, 53%
  46. 46. REALTOR® Median Gross Income $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 How many with more than $100,000? … 200,000 How many with less than $10,000? … 360,000
  47. 47. Annual Membership (at year-end) 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 47
  48. 48. For Daily Update and Analysis • Twitter @NAR_Research

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