The Infinite Economy:The landscape of emergingeconomic possibilities
Richard A. K. Lum, PhDVision Foresight Strategy LLC To assist clients with envisioning and realizingChief executive officer critical and preferred futures throughwww.kikilo.biz foresight development and strategic analysis.Institute for Political Futures To support intelligent and critical discourse onPresident the futures of governance, citizenship, and email@example.com@kikilo, @thethirdera
The Infinite Economy is the potential for a newmaterial reality that emerges from the co-evolution ofa broad landscape of technological, social, andphilosophic changes.
No place is in more dire need of a new paradigm…THE HAWAI‘I IMPERATIVE
The most isolated habitation on the planet90% of the energy we use comes from somewhere else85% of the food we consume comes from somewhere else90% of the consumer goods we use come from somewhere else
The Landscape of the Infinite Economy Infrastructure Infinite Capital Emergent Models Platforms of The Infinite Production Mindset
History, patterns, and models frame our expectationsANTICIPATING CHANGE
“Analysis, whether economic or other, never yields more than astatement about the tendencies present in an observable pattern.And these never tell us what will happen to the pattern but onlywhat would happen if they continued to act as they have beenacting…”Joseph A. Shumpeter. Can Capitalism Survive?: Creative Destruction and the Future of the Global Economy.
Prediction: a statement about the future intended to be accurate. Real futurists Forecast: a logical statement about the future.
If Futurists Don’t Predict, Why Do They Have a Job? Ubiquitous Complexity ? Pace of Change Knowledge ? Information 50 years Industrial 250 years Agrarian 6000 – 7000 years 6000 BCE CE 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2025 2050 Adapted from A. Tuominen and T. Ahlqvist, 2010
The Long History of Human Prosperity Trade Specialization “Exchange is to cultural evolution as sex is to biological evolution.” 7000 World GDP Per Capita 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 500 1000 1500 1913 Matt Ridley. The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves; Angus Maddison. The World Economy.
“Creative Destruction,” Long Waves, and Economic Change Joseph A. Schumpeter. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy; The Economist, February 20, 1999
Reinterpreting Long Waves of Technological Revolution Technological Techno-economic revolutions paradigms Successive “Techno-economic paradigms” Carlota Perez. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.
Other Dynamics of Economic Growth Physical Social Technology Technology Physical Technology: the means for manipulating matter and energy Social Technology: how we organize to get things done Social technologies in turn shape what is deemed appropriate to pursue Richard R. Nelson. Technology, Institutions, and Economic Growth.
Takeaways Understanding that such change is clearly possible Anticipating a new techno- economic revolution
“… progress can involve significant changes in direction; thataccumulation may require ‘disaccumulation’ from time to time; thatwhat is installed may have to be ‘uninstalled’… that learning the newcan require unlearning much of the old.”Carlota Perez. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.
The new infrastructure supporting the new platformsRAILWAYS OF TOMORROW
Past Industrial Revolutions Assembly Electric Trains Telegraph Line Motor Steam Electricity Coal Oil
The Infrastructure of Today Renewable Vehicle Mesh Ambient Fuel Cells Smart Grids Wi-Fi 3G/4G WiMax NFC Storage Analytics Algorithms Energy Storage Networks Informatics Power Communications Data Computing
Our ever-expanding pools of resourcesINFINITE CAPITAL
? People? ??? Power Infinite Capital Machines Finance Feedstocks
The core families of technologiesPLATFORMS OF PRODUCTION
Emerging Families of Technology Digital Nano- Fabrication fabrication Bio- production
The sensitivities of real revolutionINFINITE MINDSET
“We see a world of abundance, not limits. In the midst of a greatdeal of talk about reducing the human ecological footprint, we offera different vision. What if humans designed products and systemsthat celebrate an abundance of human creativity, culture, andproductivity? That are so intelligent and safe, our species leaves anecological footprint to delight in, not lament?”William McDonough and Michael Braungart. Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things.
The evolutionary algorithm at workEMERGENT MODELS
Experimentation, Exploration… Co-evolution The space in which everyone is experimenting to find what works Changes in the Perception of the Environment Long Tail Transition New Technologies Towns Coworking Localization Open Source Anticipation of Transformational Shifts Co- production (defining new “economies” before they appear) Sharing Economy DIY/Maker Creative Commons Service Alternative Economy Currency P2P Service Crowd- Informal sourcing Economy New Assumptions, Principles, and New Models for “how Distributed Regulatory things get done.” Processing Regimes
The Field of Action Intersections, Transition combinations, and Towns Localization Long Tail recombinations Co- Alternative Creative Coworking production Currency Commons Service Sharing DIY/Maker Open SourceEconomy Economy Informal Distributed Crowd- P2P Service Economy Processing sourcing
A New Image, a New Future The strategy implicit in the Infinite Economy is about shifting our communities from merely recipients of long global economic flows to more coherent economic systems in their own right, embedded in increasingly dense global networks of cultural and informational flows.