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2010 Getting Beyond Turbulent Times By Richard D. Smith, Smith Trg


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2010 Getting Beyond The Turbulent time by SMITH-TRG, Richard D. Smith, The Need for U.S. Job Crowth and Wealth Creation Machines to drive to 3.6 net jobs per year (of 16 million required) and add $180 billion in first year to nations economy. Position the nation for FUTURE WORLD enterprise growth and sustainable job creation.

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2010 Getting Beyond Turbulent Times By Richard D. Smith, Smith Trg

  1. 1. SMITH-TRG 2010 Getting Beyond Turbulent Times ‘The Need for U. S. Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines’ By: Richard D. Smith, CEO, SMITH-TRG Executive Briefing, Washington, D. C. January 5, 2010
  2. 2. Contents . . . Some ‘Turbulent Times’ Facts 2010 Challenges You Face Enterprise Path to Prosperity WHY: Act Now? SMITH-TRG
  3. 3. some ‘Turbulent Times’ facts (a.k.a. inconvenient realities . . .) SMITH-TRG
  4. 4. 57% of GDP is Publicly Held Federal Debt Source: Congressional Budget Office Peter Orszag, Director, Office of Management & Budget (OMB) SMITH-TRG
  5. 5. SMITH-TRG U. S. Debt is $12.1 Trillion Nearly $39,000 for Every U.S. Resident a.k.a. the DEBT BOMB! legacy. . . Deficit Growth: $162 Billion in 2007, $455 Billion 2008, and $1.8 Billion by YE 2009 (was $1.4 Billion in Oct.)
  6. 6. WITHIN A DECADE… Average American Household (that pays income taxes) Will Owe the equivalent of $155,000 In Federal Debt (about $90,000 more than last year) Source: FORTUNE June 22, 2009 SMITH-TRG
  7. 7. $39,446 is Average American’s Income As of October 2009, the average American’s annual income was up only 5.3% in inflation-adjusted terms from the end of the 1980s. That's the slowest growth registered in at least six decades. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis SMITH-TRG
  8. 8. SMITH-TRG 26.5 Million or 17.3% of Americans are Jobless or Underemployed U.S. Population grew by 35 million from 1999 to 2009, while the economy gained virtually no jobs. Employed people: 1999 – 130,532,000 vs. 2009 – 130,996,000
  9. 9. 1 in 5 People. . . are Either Unemployed, Involuntarily Working Part-Time or “Marginally Attached“ The government's broadest measure of labor underutilization (known as the U6) has more The number of people involuntarily than doubled in the two years since the working part-time jobs has more recession began to 17.5%, and it is up from than doubled to 9.3 million the highest 12% just a year ago. number on record. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics SMITH-TRG
  10. 10. 10% U.S. Unemployment Career Day On Track to Hit 11+% in Q1, 2010 SMITH-TRG
  11. 11. SMITH-TRG 19.1 % up from 10.7% Construction Industry’s Unemployment Rate The transportation and material- moving sectors saw unemployment rise to 11.6% from 7.9% over the same period.
  12. 12. SMITH-TRG Projected 9.4 Million Private-Sector Jobs Deficit by Year End 2009
  13. 13. Currently, 25 states have run out of unemployment money and have borrowed $24 billion from the federal government to cover the gaps. The nation's jobless toll is draining unemployment- compensation funds so fast that, according to federal projections, 40 state programs will go broke by 2011 and need $90 billion in loans to keep issuing benefits. SMITH-TRG
  14. 14. THE BIGGEST LOSERS: States Job losses are causing income losses, which in turn are constraining private demand, reducing tax revenues and causing higher deficits. SMITH-TRG
  15. 15. SMITH-TRG 2010 Challenges You Face We’re Almost Running On Empty!
  16. 16. SMITH-TRG New Year Assessment Data Source: Office of Management & Budget I. Even with a strong recovery, annual deficits will average about 5% of GDP over the next decade, and total debt will climb to nearly 77% of GDP, its highest level since 1952. II. Persistent deficits of this size will put upward pressure on long-term interest rates, crowding out investment and stunting long-term growth. Interest payments on the debt will be onerous - by 2019 they will exceed defense spending. III. Investor anxiety about the huge borrowing needs of the U.S. government could trigger a sharp decline in the dollar and another crisis in global financial markets.
  17. 17. 3 Key Challenges  Jobless Growth  Paying Nations’ Bills  Jobs Creation SMITH-TRG
  18. 18. 2010, Must Be About Jobs . . . WHY? Every 1 Million New Jobs Puts $50 Billion into Nations Economic Gas Tank! SMITH-TRG
  19. 19. SMITH-TRG Economic Impact of Deferred Jobs Creation Fill 10 Each month delay in creating and Million filling 1 million U.S. jobs defers Jobs $50 Billion in annual national economic benefit/value. Fill 5 Million $500 Billion Value Jobs Fill 2 Million $250 Billion Value Jobs Employing 8 million of 16 million unemployed would add $400 Billion to national $100 Billion Value economy.
  20. 20. Your Biggest “Even if the nation could add 2.15 million private-sector jobs per year Challenge starting in January 2010, it would need to maintain this pace for more than 7 straight years (7.63 years), or until August 2017, to eliminate the jobs deficit!” - Advance & Rutgers Report, Sept. 09 By James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy SMITH-TRG
  21. 21. Remember. . . 7 years (2010 to 2017) just to recover 9.4 million lost jobs (a.k.a. jobs deficit.) + Nation still needs to create 100,000 additional net new jobs per month (1.2 Mil. Yr., 2010 to 2017) to support workforce growth. SMITH-TRG
  22. 22. Need Jobs Beginning January 1st, 2010 (‘Net New’ Job Needs Per Month/Every Month) 200,000 new jobs monthly: to reduce ‘jobs deficit’ 100,000 new jobs monthly: for ‘workforce’ growth YE 2010 Total: 3,600,000 ‘Net New’ Jobs $180 Billion – National Value SMITH-TRG
  23. 23. Enterprise Path to Prosperity (FUTURE-WORLD opportunities. . .) SMITH-TRG
  24. 24. Position for FUTURE-WORLD Commerce SMITH-TRG Build 21ST Century Job Growth & Wealth Creation Machines C R E A T E ‘S U S T A I N A B L E’ U. S. J O B S!
  25. 25. BE TRANSFORMATIVE “Now is the time for America to do a business growth paradigm shift. A transformative rethink of how it designs, finances, builds and grows market competitive U.S. based businesses.” SMITH-TRG
  26. 26. GLOBALIZATION ACCEPT GLOBALIZATION “A new world order is dawning – one in which the West is no longer dominant, capitalism (at least the American version) is out of favor, and protectionism is on the rise.” - Roger Altman Former Deputy Treasury Sec., Clinton Administration SMITH-TRG
  27. 27. EMBRACE INNOVATION BUSINESS MODEL “Innovation has become INNOVATION the new currency of global PRODUCT/SERVICE competition as one country after INNOVATION another races toward a new high ground where the capacity for PROCESS INNOVATION innovation is viewed as a TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION hallmark of national success.” - John Kao, quotes Author, INNOVATION NATION, 2007 SMITH-TRG
  28. 28. ARTICULATE VISION (photos of visionary CEO’s from across industry sectors) SMITH-TRG
  29. 29. SMITH-TRG F O C U S O N ‘FUTURE-WORLD’ N E E D S  Customer Centricity.  Performance Improvement.  Innovation.  Value Creation.
  30. 30. UNDERSTAND FANATICISM “I think fanaticism is underrated. I’m a fanatic about the engineering groups. Steve (Jobs) is a fanatic about the user experience and the design.” - Bill Gates, Microsoft Advice for entrepreneurs, enterprise game changers SMITH-TRG
  31. 31. B E E N T R EP R E N E U R I A L (photos of entrepreneurs who drive change and create value in diverse market sectors) SMITH-TRG
  32. 32. A S S E S S E ME R G I N G M A R K E T S SMITH-TRG
  33. 33. 8 Emerging Market Opportunities (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 1) Modular Kitchens: Think college dorm rooms, worker housing, disaster recovery lodging, NYC apartments, etc…
  34. 34. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 2 & 3) Flexible Screen Technologies & Roll-up Laptop (closed/open) Digital-Media applications of technology, lines-of-business segments unlimited…
  35. 35. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 4 & 5) Cyber Security & Intranets. Gartner Research estimates that about 15 percent of all small businesses suffered a hack attack in 2008. NATO Chief of Cyber Defense: “Cyber terrorism poses as great a threat to national security as a missile attack. In 2008, the Department of Defense suffered an estimated 80,000 network attacks. On government networks alone, a new software vulnerability is exploited every 82 minutes.” The financial and economic impact of a one day cyber sabotage effort that disrupts US credit and debit card transactions is estimated at being about $35 billion USD.
  36. 36. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 6) Cyber Secure Digital-Media Cities, Eco Future-World New & Upgraded Multi-Purpose Population Centers Capital intensive ($5 to $45 Bil.) strategic long-term investments – energy efficient digital-enabled life.
  37. 37. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 7) Health Care Solutions Technology enabled health care treatment solutions forecasted by some to be $2 Trillion U.S. market.
  38. 38. 8 Opportunities continued . . . (in no particular order) SMITH-TRG 8) Wireless Application Solutions Think beyond Apple’s iPhone, Google smartphones, Nokia, Samsung and others. Think about Tablets, in-car systems, multi- touch flex-screens – all part of digital media future-world. “The greatest value creation opportunity will fall to those who give the end-user consumer what they want…really, really want. And that is: an integrated, easy to use, video media experience, anytime, anywhere, and on any platform.” - Richard D. Smith, SMITH-TRG Author, AD-MIRED, 2006, book quote
  39. 39. SMITH-TRG Mobile APPs continued . . . – 2008 - 1.19 Billion Mobile Phones “What you carry on your belt Sold World-wide. 155 Million (13%) were Smartphones is now your MP3 player, will be your plasma TV, is your – WHY MOBILE APPLICATIONS? By 2013 20% or 280 Million (SP’s) social networking machine, is your Internet terminal, – Apple: 100,000 APP’s vs. RIM’s: 2,000Billion 2008 to $25 Billion 2014 Market Forecast: From $7 Sources: Juniper Research & IDC APP’s your camera, your personal navigation device.” – Others: Google, Sprint’s Palm, Motorola – 2 new devices, then - Jim Basillie Nokia, Samsung, and host of new Co-CEO, Research-in-Motion entrants. . .
  40. 40. show me the money! SMITH-TRG
  41. 41. SMITH-TRG New Enterprise Associates (Large VC) Just Closed 13th Fund Raised nearly $2.5 Billion Core Investment Areas Information Technology Energy Technology Health Care Art by: John Kuczala
  42. 42. K E E P: E Y E O N T H E P R I Z E – Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows that it must run faster than the fastest lion, or IT WILL BE KILLED. – Every morning in Africa, a lion wakes up. It knows that it must outrun the slowest gazelle, or IT WILL STARVE TO DEATH. – In Africa, it doesn’t matter whether you’re a lion or a gazelle. When the SUN COMES UP, YOU’D BETTER BE RUNNING! SMITH-TRG
  43. 43. WHY: Act Now? SMITH-TRG
  44. 44. “The Ultimate Measure Of A Healthy & Recovering Economy. . .Jobs Growth!” SMITH-TRG
  45. 45. If Not Now, When? If Not You, Who? SMITH-TRG
  46. 46. Thank You!