Basic Risk Identification Techniques

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In this presentation, Ricardo explains the main techniques for identifying risks in a project. He also shows the process of use each technique.

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Basic Risk Identification Techniques

  1. 1. Basic Risk Identification Techniques Ricardo Viana Vargas, MSc, IPMA-B, PMP ricardo.vargas@macrosolutions.com.br © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  2. 2. Ricardo Viana Vargas, MSc, IPMA-B, PMP Ricardo Viana Vargas is a project, portfolio and risk management specialist. During the past 15 years, he has been responsible for over 80 major projects in various countries in the areas of petroleum, energy, infrastructure, telecommunications, information technology and finances, comprising an investment portfolio of over 18 billion dollars. He was the first Latin American volunteer to be elected Chairman of the Board for the Project Management Institute (PMI), the largest project management organization in the world with close to 500,000 members and certified professionals in 175 countries. Ricardo Vargas has written ten books on project management, published in Portuguese and English, which have sold over 200,000 copies throughout the world. In 2005 he received the PMI Distinguished Award for his contribution to the development of project management and the PMI Professional Development Product of the Year award for the PMDome® workshop, considered the best project management training solution in the world. He is a project management professor for various MBA courses, and actively participates on editorial boards for specialized journals in Brazil and the United States. Vargas is a recognized reviewer of the PMBOK Guide, the most important reference in the world for project management, and also chaired the official translation of PMBOK into Portuguese. He is a chemical engineer and holds a master’s degree in Industrial Engineering from UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais). Ricardo Vargas also holds a Master Certificate in Project Management from George Washington University and is certified both as a Project Management Professional (PMP) by PMI and as IPMA-B by the International Project Management Association. He attended the Program on Negotiation for Executives at Harvard Law School. Over an eleven year timeframe, which began in 1995, Ricardo, in conjunction with two partners, established one of the most solid Brazilian businesses in the area of technology, project management and outsourcing, which had a staff of 4,000 collaborators and an annual income of 50 million dollars in 2006, when Ricardo Vargas sold his share of the company to dedicate himself on a fulltime basis to the internationalization of his project management activities. He is a member of the Association for Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE), the American Management Association (AMA), the International Project Management Association (IPMA), the Institute for Global Ethics and the Professional Risk Management International Association (PRMIA). 2 © BY MACROSOLUTIONS SA. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  3. 3. Risk Identification Techniques Interview with Delphi Brainstorming SME’s Technique Nominal Group Technique Crawford Slip Analogy (NGT) Checklist, Forms and Templates 3 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  4. 4. Interview with SME’s (Subject Matter Experts) Technique used to inquire issues related to doubts and other technical characteristics, normally not covered by the project teamEntrevistados • Experts external to the team and/or corporation • Consultants • Project team 4 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  5. 5. Interview with Experts - Process Define the list Define the Define the of scope Facilitator interviewees Receive Send questions Develop the answers from to questions interviewees interviewees Fill up the list Consolidate of identified Responses risks 5 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  6. 6. Brainstorming Identification of Team must be Highly creative many risks available and synergetic If not adequately Encourages executed, it can teamwork lead to “chaos” 6 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  7. 7. Brainstorming - Process Define the Define the Define the List Scope Facilitador of Participants Fill up the List Conduct the Consolidate the with the Brainstorming Responses Identified Risks Session 7 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  8. 8. Delphi Technique It’s a type of interview The interviews are with SME’s anonymous It’s used when there may be conflicts or It’s used to get comments from confrontation, or when “competitors” brainstorming is not recommended Slow and hard-working 8 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  9. 9. Delphi Technique - Process Define the Develop the Define the List of Define the scope Facilitator Questions Interviewees n times Redistribute the Consolidate the Receive the Distribute the Questions Responses Answers Questions/Survey Consolidate the Fill up the List with Final Results Identified Risks 9 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  10. 10. Nominal Group Technique - NGT It allows a certain Individual degree of Brainstorming prioritization It’s a mix of Fast and effective individual and group participation It lessens the “chaos” of brainstorming 10 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  11. 11. Nominal Group Technique - Process Define the List of Define the Schedule the Participants Define the Scope Facilitator Meeting (between 6 and 8) Facilitator writes Each Participant Start the meeting Each Participant down the First Risk creates his/her own and state the rules, orders his/her Risks of each Participant Risk List time and process n times Facilitator writes Facilitator writes Fill up the List of down the second Consolidate the down n Risks from Identified Risks Risk of each Final Results each Participant (prioritized) Participant 11 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  12. 12. Crawford Slip It’s used to It used a “slip” or identify many risks piece of paper like in a short period Post-It® of time Individual Group Brainstorming consolidation 12 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  13. 13. Crawford Slip - Process Define the List of Define the Schedule the Participants Define the Scope Facilitator meeting (between 6 and 8) Start the meeting Distribute the List to Collect slips and Each Participant stating the rules, the Participants for consolidate the List writes down 1 Risk time and number of Final Comments of Identified Risks for Minute risks Consolidate the Fill up the List with Final Results Identified Risks 13 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  14. 14. Analogy Based on previous history A reference is needed The available information must be adjusted to the current scenario 14 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  15. 15. Analogy - Process Define which Consolidate the previous Projects Risks from previous Define the Scope can be used as Projects references Adapt the List of Distribute the List to Develop the Initial Risks to the current Team members List of Risks Project Team analyse the Consolidate the Fill up the List of Preliminary List of Final Results Identified Risks Risks 15 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  16. 16. Checklist, Surveys and Templates When there are Based on the concept historical that no new project has data/studies/data from a complete new set of other organizations risks Uses Risk Breakdown Used to refine your List Structures to make risk of Risks identification easier 16 © BY RICARDO VIANA VARGAS. TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS
  17. 17. Visit www.ricardo-vargas.com to access other presentations, podcasts, videos and technical content about project , risk and portfolio management. © BY MACROSOLUTIONS SA

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