Comparative Science, Technology, and Innovation Systems in Developing-Country Agriculture: What Can We Measure and What Can We Not?
Comparative Science, Technology, andInnovation SystemsinDeveloping-Country AgricultureWhat Can We Measure and What Can We Not?David J SpielmanInternational Food Policy Research InstituteWashington, DCApril 19, 2013
Metrics and measurements• Technical & economic indicators• Innovation system indicators• Measurement issues
Technical & economic indicatorsInputs• Public investment in agricultural R&D– Pardey & Roseboom (1989); Pardey & Beintema (2000); Beintema et al. (2012)Outputs• New varieties, practices, technologies, systems• Publications, patents, and variety registrationsOutcomes• Changes in cereal, livestock yields; natural resource stocks• Changes in agricultural total factor productivity change (Coelli & Rao 2003)Impacts• Rates of returns to agricultural R&D– Alston, Norton, & Pardey (1995); Alston et al. (2000)• Contribution of R&D to productivity growth– Evenson & Gollin (2003); Evenson & Rosegrant (2003)• Contribution of R&D to poverty reduction– Fan, Hazell & Thorat (2000); Hazell & Haddad (2001); Adato, Meinzen-Dick & Suseela (2007)
Input indicators:Public expenditure on agricultural R&D01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0001981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008Constant(2005)US$mPPPSub-Saharan Africa (45)ChinaIndiaAsia & Pacific (26)BrazilLatin America & Caribbean (28)West Asia & North Africa (13)Source: Beintema & Stads (2012); ASTI (2012)
Output indicators:R&D on improved nutritional/quality traitsIn regulatoryIn research articlesSource: Graff, Zilberman, & Bennett (2010)In initial field trialsIn advanced field trials
Output indicators:Contributions of genetic improvement to yield growth51%83%56%23%66%88%69%28%0%20%40%60%80%100%Latin America Asia Middle East/NorthAfricaSub-Saharan AfricaShare of area to modern varieties (1998)Total genetic improvement contribution to yield growth (1965-1998, % per year)Sources: Renkow & Byerlee (2010); Evenson & Gollin (2003)
Outcome indicators:Agricultural TFP index for sub-Saharan Africa (1961=100)Source: Fuglie & Rada (2012)
Agricultural innovation systemAgroprocessorsExportersProducerorganizationsInput suppliersCredit agenciesLand agenciesGovernment policy and regulatory frameworkInformal institutions, practices, behaviors, and attitudesConsumersStandards agenciesFarmersNational extension andbusiness developmentservicesNationalagriculturalresearch systemNational education andtraining organizationsFarmers &entrepreneursBridging and coordinationorganizationsScience, technology, and innovation systemsSource: World Bank (2012)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7BangladeshBurkina FasoSenegalGhanaKenyaIndiaChinaSouth AfricaThailandBrazilUnited StatesFinlandIndex (1-7)Source: World Economic Forum (2013)Global competitiveness index
BECZDKDEEEHRESFRIEITCYELLTLUHU MTNL ATPLPTSISKFISEUKBGROTRISNOUSJPCHLV0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0SummaryInnovationIndex(0−1)Average growth rate of SIIDotted lines show EU25 mean performance.Innovation LeadersCatching-upFollowersTrailingEuropean innovation scoreboardSource: Hollanders and Arundel 2004; CEC (2006); Hollanders, pers. comm.
• Epistemological debate– Can quantitative measures adequately explain a system that is highlycomplex, context-specific, and endogenous?• Methodological debate– How robust is the selection, construction, and interpretation ofindicators?• Policy debate– Can measurements of innovation influence policy change?Challenges inmeasuring science, technology, and innovation