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As a Project Management professional, I have keen interest on how best to handle the risk attributed to weather. It's not surprising that a common approach to Weather Modeling is by using Historical Records. The fact that the weather is cyclical gave me some confidence that this approach makes some sense if not a lot of sense.
Of course, just like most people, I do have my doubts if there's anybody who can do a better job than the next person forecasting the weather. We often hear that a child can do it. Birds have it all figured out. Afterall, we all joke about the weatherman getting it consistently wrong.
In spite of this, I cannot help but try and check an acceptable modelling technique that can be used as a main tool to predict what weather risk lies ahead. By predicting the probability of some weather parameters such as temperature, humidity, etc within a recurring timeline (respecting the cycle), the project team can have a better handle of many challenging situations. The best mitigation response plan can be figured out. While there might be many models that can be perceived, the one referred to in here is probably the more simplistic. We have a chance to move away from being a "cross your finger" project.