122812-Risk Management Through Weather Modelling

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As a Project Management professional, I have keen interest on how best to handle the risk attributed to weather. It's not surprising that a common approach to Weather Modeling is by using Historical Records. The fact that the weather is cyclical gave me some confidence that this approach makes some sense if not a lot of sense.

Of course, just like most people, I do have my doubts if there's anybody who can do a better job than the next person forecasting the weather. We often hear that a child can do it. Birds have it all figured out. Afterall, we all joke about the weatherman getting it consistently wrong.

In spite of this, I cannot help but try and check an acceptable modelling technique that can be used as a main tool to predict what weather risk lies ahead. By predicting the probability of some weather parameters such as temperature, humidity, etc within a recurring timeline (respecting the cycle), the project team can have a better handle of many challenging situations. The best mitigation response plan can be figured out. While there might be many models that can be perceived, the one referred to in here is probably the more simplistic. We have a chance to move away from being a "cross your finger" project.

Cheers,---Rufran

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  • HI All,

    In my professional opinion and understanding, the weather is the condition of the atmosphere and the surrounding general area over a specified time. It is about changes in temperature, rainfall averages, daily or weekly or monthly general condition of the atmosphere, centimetres of snow, and similar measurement. My overall approach fell within the boundary of this definition.

    I have focused on these fundamental weather components only because they are the one that makes sense towards making a more sensible forecast. Please accept my agreement that predicting big weather events like hurricanes, typhoons, and tornadoes are next to impossible. This is especially true when the time-window of concern becomes more precise. If I am to predict a snowstorm in Alberta, Canada even in the midst of the winter season, from Jan 15 to 22, 2013; I will have no basis to my calculation. It shows that the accuracy of prediction diminishes as the time-window of concern becomes shorter and vice versa.

    IMHO there is nothing we can do to predict the big weather events. Usually, projects address the weather forecasting limitations by making assumptions (with or without basis). A construction contract making provision for rain-days usually expresses the statement in general terms and with seemingly blanket application. The good thing to note is that it works without the detailed rationale one might be looking for.

    I am not interested in forecasting big weather events because it is an exercise in futility. If any one of you do not believe, please convince me. If you think that forecasting them can be done, kindly demonstrate.---Thanks. RCF
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122812-Risk Management Through Weather Modelling

  1. 1. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k 1
  2. 2. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k COLLECT & GATHER HISTORICAL WEATHER INFORMATION 2
  3. 3. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k 3
  4. 4. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k ZERO IN ON THE FOCAL ACTIVITY TIMELINE 4
  5. 5. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k 5
  6. 6. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k ANALYZE ACTIVITY REQUIREMENTS VERSUS POSSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS 6
  7. 7. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k PILING SEP FOUNDATION OCT DEC 7
  8. 8. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k SEP OCT FOUNDATION DEC PILING 8
  9. 9. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k Theoretical Example Activity : Piling-Bridge Construction Requirements/specifications: (1) 1. If temperature is below 0 deg C, heated concrete piles shall be used. 2. Concrete piles should have a temperature of between 15 deg C & 25 deg C when placed. 3. When the ground against which pile concrete is placed is below -5 deg C, the concrete shall be protected from heat loss. The pile boring shall be made oversize down to the depth of 2 meter, and the concrete shall be poured in an insulated form. Concrete at the top of the pile is to be insulated. 4. After four days the form and insulation may be removed, and the space is to be backfilled immediately with compacted non-granular fill or lean concrete to the elevation of top of pile. 5. In a region where the ground temperature is above -10C but below -5C, the hole may be bored 100 mm diameter oversize, and filled directly with pile concrete, as an alternative to the procedure described above. Concrete at the top of the pile is to be insulated. 9
  10. 10. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k ANALYZE ACTIVITY REQUIREMENT No. 1 & 3 VERSUS POSSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS 10
  11. 11. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k Requirement 1: If temperature is below 0 deg C, heated concrete piles shall be used. Requirement 3: When the ground against which pile concrete is placed is below -5 deg C, the concrete shall be protected from heat loss. The pile boring shall be made oversize down to the depth of 2 meter, and the concrete shall be poured in an insulated form. Concrete at the top of the pile is to be insulated. Given: • Mean Temperatures in the last 6 years (Oct/Dec) were below 0 deg C at 75% of the time, and, • Those below -5 deg C @ 39% of the time. Response Plan: • 75% heated concrete piles shall be used. • 75% probability shall be used in the additional cost calculation relating to Requirement #1. • Use 39% probability in all calculation relating to Requirement #2. 11
  12. 12. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k Continue with a more or less Similar Approach to all Weather Risks 12
  13. 13. H H F-XC A N GE F-XC A N GE PD PD ! ! W W O O N N y y bu bu to to k k lic lic C Cw w m m w ww w o o WEATHER MODELING .d o .c .d o .c c u -tr a c k c u -tr a c k REFERENCE • 2012, Excerpt from Bridge Bearing Piles, Alberta Transportation, Page 3-10, Specifications for Bridge Construction Section 3, Bearing Piles. Paraphrase from an Internet pdf file- www.transportation.alberta.ca/Content/docType246/.../07bcs03.pdf 13

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