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Author : Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®
Revision : November 6, 2014
Abstract:
Developing a schedule needs...
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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110614 Creating a P50 Risk-based Baseline Schedule

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Developing a schedule needs to be approached with success in mind. Dividing the project or portfolio into smaller manageable pieces, or sub-projects is a good principle, a strategy acceptable and recommended in various industries. However, as the number grows, the quality, integration, and alignment challenge becomes the next hurdle. Key dates are usually not supporting each other. The schedule is seldom properly integrated, ending up with critical probability disconnects in its vertical and horizontal relationships.

Upon closer inspection, the baseline deterministic schedule has different, wide, and varying range of certainties, most concerning in large portfolios with many projects depending on each other. It is for this reason that the project have to address this disconnect and come up with what can be a middle ground i.e. an achievable P5O Risk-based baseline using Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis.

We use three-point estimate method to demonstrate the generation of the P50 risk-based schedule baseline.

This article also shows that any project is capable of generating other risk-based schedule baselines such as P40, P60, P70 or a P80.

Cheers,


Rufran C. Frago, P.Eng, PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®

Published in: Software, Technology, Business

110614 Creating a P50 Risk-based Baseline Schedule

  1. 1. ` Author : Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP® Revision : November 6, 2014 Abstract: Developing a schedule needs to be approached with success in mind. Dividing the project or portfolio into smaller manageable pieces, or sub-projects is a good principle, a strategy acceptable and recommended in various industries. However, as the number grow, the quality, integration, and alignment challenge becomes the next hurdle. Key dates are usually not supporting each other. The schedule is seldom properly integrated, ending up with critical probability disconnects in its vertical and horizontal relationships. Upon closer inspection, the baseline deterministic schedule has different, wide, and varying range of certainties, most concerning in large portfolios with many projects depending on each other. It is for this reason that the project have to address this disconnect and come up with what can be a middle ground i.e. an achievable P5O Risk-based baseline using Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis. We use three-point estimate method to demonstrate the generation of the P50 risk- based schedule baseline. This article also shows that any project is capable of generating other risk-based schedule baselines such as P40, or P70. The project that is able to develop a high quality, integrated, and aligned schedules, set itself for success. Part of the alignment process suggested is the use of P50 dates across the project portfolio to enhance achievability.
  2. 2. Page 2 of 46 ABOUT THE AUTHOR
  3. 3. Page 3 of 46 Sorry, the article you are looking was removed. You will find a more detailed discussion about the subject and many other related topics in the paperback edition of the book "Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective." It is also available in Amazon’s Kindle edition. Please follow the hyperlink below or copy and paste the URL on your browser to check. You can now grab a copy. Check it out! • http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI- RMP/e/B01055MPYI • http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0104OFUDI/ref=rdr_ki ndle_ext_tmb • https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risk-based- management-world-threats-opportunities- rufran?trk=prof-post Cheers, Rufran C. Frago Author Sorry, the article you are looking for was removed.

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