Developing a schedule needs to be approached with success in mind. Dividing the project or portfolio into smaller manageable pieces, or sub-projects is a good principle, a strategy acceptable and recommended in various industries. However, as the number grows, the quality, integration, and alignment challenge becomes the next hurdle. Key dates are usually not supporting each other. The schedule is seldom properly integrated, ending up with critical probability disconnects in its vertical and horizontal relationships.
Upon closer inspection, the baseline deterministic schedule has different, wide, and varying range of certainties, most concerning in large portfolios with many projects depending on each other. It is for this reason that the project have to address this disconnect and come up with what can be a middle ground i.e. an achievable P5O Risk-based baseline using Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis.
We use three-point estimate method to demonstrate the generation of the P50 risk-based schedule baseline.
This article also shows that any project is capable of generating other risk-based schedule baselines such as P40, P60, P70 or a P80.
Rufran C. Frago, P.Eng, PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®