Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

RetailOasis: Australian Retail Landscape

4,325 views

Published on

A look at the winners and competitors of Australian retail in 2016.

Published in: Retail
  • Hey guys! Who wants to chat with me? More photos with me here 👉 http://www.bit.ly/katekoxx
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

RetailOasis: Australian Retail Landscape

  1. 1. AUSTRALIAN RETAIL LANDSCAPE 2016
  2. 2. Cash rate: 2% CPI: 1.7% Household consumption 0.8% Household savings: 7.6% Unemployment: 6% Annualised GDP: 3% AUSTRALIA: KEY STATISTICS CONSUMER LED SPENDING CREATING A REBALANCED, RESILIENT ECONOMY
  3. 3. SIZE, SCOPE & DIRECTION OF AUSTRALIAN RETAIL
  4. 4. FINAL HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE $924B: 
 non-discretionary subject to higher inflation than discretionary 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 Other Clothing&footwear Furnishings&hhequip Communications Recreation Hotels,cafes,rests Tobacco Alcohol Vehicles Operatevehicles Food Transport Insurance/finserv Education Health Utilities Rent&related 6.2% 8.7% 7.1% 8.5% 5.2%5.3% 4.1% 3.2% 4.4% 3.1% 5.2% 4.8% 3.6% 2.4% 3.2% 1.9% 4.8% $199 $23 $59 $43 $83 $29 $91 $46 $19 $16$16 $62 $91 $21 $39 $29 $60 4.8% 1.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.6% 4.8% 5.2% 3.1% 4.4% 3.2% 4.1% 5.3% 5.2% 8.5% 7.1% 8.7% 6.2% Source: ABS National Accounts, September 2015 $billions 5YrCAGR Discretionary 53% Non - Discretionary 47%
  5. 5. TOTAL DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURE $398B: 
 after food, recreation & experiences highest value & growth 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 Other Clothing&footwear Furnishings&hhequip Communications Recreation Hotels,cafes,rests Tobacco Alcohol Vehicles Operatevehicles Food 4.1% 3.2% 4.4% 3.1% 5.2% 4.8% 3.6% 2.4% 3.2% 1.9% 4.8% $91 $46 $19 $16$16 $62 $91 $21 $39 $29 $60 4.8% 1.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.6% 4.8% 5.2% 3.1% 4.4% 3.2% 4.1% Source: ABS National Accounts, September 2015 $billions 5YrCAGR :
  6. 6. TOTAL RETAIL $292B: 
 Australians still obsessed with home improvement, increasingly living an eat-out lifestyle & shopping online -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 Supermarket Liquor Specialistfood Furniture,floor,h'ware Electrical Hardware&g'dn Clothing Footwear&acc'ry Dep'tstores N'paper&books Otherrecreational Pharmacy&cosmetic Otherretail Cafes,rest's,cater Takeaway 4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.2% 1.4% -4.1% -0.1% 1.6% 2.9% 6.1% 1% 3.5% 1.1% 4%4.2% $16 $24 $16$16 $5$3 $19 $8 $15 $18 $20 $14 $9 $11 $99 4.2% 4% 1.1% 3.5% 1% 6.1% 2.9% 1.6% -0.1% -4.1% 1.4% 4.2% 5.8% 7.2% 4% Source: ABS Retail Trade, December 2015 $billions 5YrCAGR :
  7. 7. TOTAL RETAIL $292B: 
 Australians still obsessed with home improvement -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 Supermarket Liquor Specialistfood Furniture,floor,h'ware Electrical Hardware&g'dn Clothing Footwear&acc'ry Dep'tstores N'paper&books Otherrecreational Pharmacy&cosmetic Otherretail Cafes,rest's,cater Takeaway 4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.2% 1.4% -4.1% -0.1% 1.6% 2.9% 6.1% 1% 3.5% 1.1% 4%4.2% $16 $24 $16$16 $5$3 $19 $8 $15 $18 $20 $14 $9 $11 $99 4.2% 4% 1.1% 3.5% 1% 6.1% 2.9% 1.6% -0.1% -4.1% 1.4% 4.2% 5.8% 7.2% 4% Source: ABS Retail Trade, December 2015 $billions 5YrCAGR :
  8. 8. Australia’s love affair with property has seen price to income ratios match the highest in the world
  9. 9. Many are questioning not just if, but when the bubble might burst…
  10. 10. THREE REASONS HOME IMPROVEMENT WILL REMAIN SOLID we enjoy relatively positive economic conditions OFFSET SAVINGS ACCOUNTS Offset accounts unaccounted for Relatively stable unemployment (c. 6%) Record low interest rates SOLID & COMPETITIVE WORKFORCE EASE OF DEBT SERVICING LOWER DEBT TO PRICE RATIOS C. 2007-08 STABLE HOUSEHOLDS LOW COSTS OF SERVICING DEBBT
  11. 11. TOTAL RETAIL $292B: 
 Australians increasingly living an eat-out lifestyle -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 Supermarket Liquor Specialistfood Furniture,floor,h'ware Electrical Hardware&g'dn Clothing Footwear&acc'ry Dep'tstores N'paper&books Otherrecreational Pharmacy&cosmetic Otherretail Cafes,rest's,cater Takeaway 4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.2% 1.4% -4.1% -0.1% 1.6% 2.9% 6.1% 1% 3.5% 1.1% 4%4.2% $16 $24 $16$16 $5$3 $19 $8 $15 $18 $20 $14 $9 $11 $99 4.2% 4% 1.1% 3.5% 1% 6.1% 2.9% 1.6% -0.1% -4.1% 1.4% 4.2% 5.8% 7.2% 4% Source: ABS Retail Trade, December 2015 $billions 5YrCAGR :
  12. 12. Eating out & up is on the rise…
  13. 13. THREE REASONS EATING OUT IS ON THE RISE Our love of food is ever growing DIVERSITY Cultural diversity has exploded food choice Millennial consumer outsourcing services Increasing sophistication SHIFT TO DIFM HIGHER EXPECTATIONS EXPERIENCE CONVENIENCE PREMIUMISATION
  14. 14. TOTAL RETAIL $292B: 
 And online is on the rise -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 Supermarket Liquor Specialistfood Furniture,floor,h'ware Electrical Hardware&g'dn Clothing Footwear&acc'ry Dep'tstores N'paper&books Otherrecreational Pharmacy&cosmetic Otherretail Cafes,rest's,cater Takeaway 4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.2% 1.4% -4.1% -0.1% 1.6% 2.9% 6.1% 1% 3.5% 1.1% 4%4.2% $16 $24 $16$16 $5$3 $19 $8 $15 $18 $20 $14 $9 $11 $99 4.2% 4% 1.1% 3.5% 1% 6.1% 2.9% 1.6% -0.1% -4.1% 1.4% 4.2% 5.8% 7.2% 4% Source: ABS Retail Trade, December 2015 $billions 5YrCAGR :
  15. 15. Online retail continues to grow, estimated at $22.1bn 2014, a 7% increase on the year prior
  16. 16. THREE REASONS ONLINE CONTINUES TO TRANSFORM RETAIL We are increasingly connected CONVENIENCE International delivery standards reaching Australia Increasing expectation of recognition Ultimate accessibility PERSONALISATION EASE INSTANT GRATIFICATION RELEVANCE EXPERIENCE
  17. 17. WHO’S WINNING, WHO’S LOSING & WHY?
  18. 18. Winner: FY15 $9.5bn revenue, $1.1bn EBIT 324 outlets
  19. 19. Loser: FY15 $954m sales, $245m losses, 62 stores
  20. 20. Piggy in the middle: approx $2bn revenue, $100m EBIT, 366 locations
  21. 21. HOME IMPROVEMENT: APPROX $40BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER $9.5bn revenue, $1.1bn EBIT 
 324 outlets approx $2bn revenue, $100m EBIT, 366 locations FY15 $954m sales, 
 $245m losses, 62 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER DOMINANT BREADTH & DEPTH SERVICE UNDERESTIMATED CATEGORY BASICS
  22. 22. Winner: Est $4bn revenue, $300m EBIT
 200 stores
  23. 23. Loser: Est $1.5bn revenue, $75m EBIT
 650 stores
  24. 24. Piggy in the middle: approx $150m revenue, $15m EBIT, 77 stores
  25. 25. LIQUOR RETAIL: APPROX $18BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER Est $4bn revenue, $300m EBIT
 200 stores approx $150m revenue, $15m EBIT, 77 stores Est $1.5bn revenue, $75m EBIT
 650 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER DOMINANT BREADTH & DEPTH SERVICE CONVENIENCE PRICING WITHOUT THE CHOICE
  26. 26. Winner: $4.55bn revenue, $432m EBIT 
 207 stores
  27. 27. Loser: $3.44bn revenue, $90m EBIT, 
 308 stores
  28. 28. Piggy in the middle: $4.11bn revenue, $114 EBIT, 
 152 stores
  29. 29. DEPARTMENT STORE RETAIL: APPROX $18BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER $4.55bn revenue, $432m EBIT 
 207 stores $3.44bn revenue, $90m EBIT, 
 308 stores $4.11bn revenue, $114 EBIT, 
 152 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER VELOCITY VOLUME MODEL RANGE, BRAND & PRICE CONFUSION DEMOCRATISED FASHION
  30. 30. Winner: Est $1bn revenue, 
 8 x 30,000 sqm outlets
  31. 31. Loser: Est $200m sales, 
 73 stores
  32. 32. Piggy in the middle: Approx $300m revenue, 60 stores
  33. 33. HOME & OFFICE FURNITURE: APPROX $8BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER Est $1bn revenue, 
 8 x 30,000 sqm outlets Approx $300m revenue, 60 stores Est $200m sales, 
 73 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER CATEGORY KILLER HOME FASHION PRICE FIGHTER
  34. 34. Winner: $3.45bn revenue, $199 EBIT
 171 stores
  35. 35. Loser: Est $1bn, $400m DEBT, 325 stores
  36. 36. Piggy in the middle: est $1.5bn revenue, 230 stores
  37. 37. CONSUMER ELECTRONICS (EXCL WHITE GOODS) APPROX $15.3BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER $3.45bn revenue, $199 EBIT
 171 stores est $1.5bn, 230 stores Est $1bn, $400m DEBT, 325 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER RANGE & PRICE AUTHORITY GENERALIST CONFUSED MARKET POSITION
  38. 38. Winner: $750m revenue, 250 stores
  39. 39. Loser: $250m revenue, 210 stores
  40. 40. Piggy in the middle: $360m revenue, 303 stores
  41. 41. CAR AFTERMARKET PARTS & ACCESS: APPROX $5.7BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER $750m revenue, 250 stores $360m revenue, 303 stores $250m revenue, 210 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER DOMINANT RANGE WIDTH & PRICE PERCEPTION ASSISTED SERVICE INCONSISTENT
  42. 42. Winner: $100M+ revenue, 61 stores
  43. 43. Loser: Est $150m revenue, 160 stores
  44. 44. Piggy in the middle: Est $35m revenue, 
 3 stores
  45. 45. BEAUTY: APPROX $5BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER $100M+ revenue, 
 61 stores Est $35m revenue, 
 3 stores Est $150m revenue
 160 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER BRAND EXCLUSIVES INTERNATIONAL CACHE CONVENIENCE
  46. 46. Winner: Est $130m revenue first 12mths
 6 stores
  47. 47. Loser: $237m revenue, 157 stores
  48. 48. Piggy in the middle: approx $100m revenue, 120 stores
  49. 49. FASHION: APPROX $21BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER Est $130m revenue first 12mths
 6 stores approx $100m revenue, 
 120 stores $237m revenue,
 157 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER EUROPEAN FAST FASHION CACHE LOCAL TREND DISPOSABLE
  50. 50. Winner: $120M revenue, 40 stores
  51. 51. Loser: $220m, 128 large format stores
  52. 52. Piggy in the middle: $220m, 130 stores
  53. 53. FOOTWEAR: APPROX $5BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER $120M revenue, 40 stores $220m, 130 stores $220m, 128 large format stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER MOST WANTED BRANDS & FASHION FIT & FUNCTION SELF SERVICE
  54. 54. Winner: $700m revenue, 550 stores
  55. 55. Piggy in the middle: Est $600m revenue, 600 stores
  56. 56. Loser: $2.3bn revenue, 900 stores
  57. 57. TAKEAWAY FOOD: APPROX $14.8BN:
 WINNERS & LOSERS WINNER $700m revenue, $91M EBIT
 550 stores Est $600m revenue, 
 600 stores $2.3bn revenue, 
 900 stores PIGGY IN THE MIDDLE LOSER FAST CASUAL, MOBILE DINING INCREMENTAL CHANGE Q,S,C,V
  58. 58. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES?
  59. 59. 1. Big box, small box, or online, put the consumer first 2. Always think about the experience you are delivering, whether it’s simplicity & ease or immersion & desire 3. At the bottom of the market verticality, range efficiencies & process simplicity win 4. Above the bottom, authority, wanted brands, & services win IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES
  60. 60. THANK YOU

×