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Food Security, Agriculture and Poverty
in Asia
Peter Warr
John Crawford Professor of Agricultural Economics
Arndt-Corden D...
2
Food security is back on the international
agenda, mainly because of recent increases
in international food prices.
3
International real prices of rice, wheat and maize, 1900 to 2012
4
Three features of these real commodity price data are
important for food security:
1. all three have declined markedly o...
5
International real prices of rice, wheat and maize, 1900 to 2012
6
How can agricultural policy promote food security?
Two kinds of national level agricultural policy responses:
. Policies...
7
Number of undernourished people in the world, 2010-12
Source: Data from FAO Food Security Indicators, 2012.
329
535
Rest...
8
Numbers of
undernourished
people
Source: Data from FAO Food Security Indicators, 2012.
9
Prevalence and depth of food insecurity: cumulative distribution function
10
Undernourishment:
prevalence and depth
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12
3yearavg.undernourishment(%)
China India
Proportion of under...
12
Proportion of undernourished people: Southeast Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010...
13
Proportion of undernourished people: South Asia (except India)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07...
14
Proportion of undernourished people: North, West and Central Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 200...
15
Undernourishment and poverty in the developing countries
16
Undernourishment and poverty in Asia
17
Stunting among children under 5 years old
42.8
34.4
31.3 31.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980-1989 2010-2012
%ofchildr...
18
Underweight among children under 5 years old
30.0
20.6
15.0
12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980-1989 2010-2012
%ofchildrenu...
19
Undernourishment, poverty and economic growth
20
Undernourishment, food availability and food access
21
Summary and conclusions
1. The number of undernourished people in Asia is 65% of the
global total.
2. In the last two d...
22
Summary and conclusions
4. Undernourishment is significantly reduced by expansion of
agricultural output. This effect i...
23
Summary and conclusions
7. Agricultural policy should aim to expand agricultural output
without increasing food prices....
24
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Keynote: Food Security, Agriculture and Poverty in Asia- Peter Warr

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Keynote: Food Security, Agriculture and Poverty in Asia- Peter Warr

  1. 1. Food Security, Agriculture and Poverty in Asia Peter Warr John Crawford Professor of Agricultural Economics Arndt-Corden Department of Economics Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University Peter.Warr@anu.edu.au
  2. 2. 2 Food security is back on the international agenda, mainly because of recent increases in international food prices.
  3. 3. 3 International real prices of rice, wheat and maize, 1900 to 2012
  4. 4. 4 Three features of these real commodity price data are important for food security: 1. all three have declined markedly over the long term; 2. all three have been highly volatile; and 3. all three increased significantly in recent years.
  5. 5. 5 International real prices of rice, wheat and maize, 1900 to 2012
  6. 6. 6 How can agricultural policy promote food security? Two kinds of national level agricultural policy responses: . Policies to enhance domestic agricultural productivity . Policies to raise domestic agricultural prices Example: In the case of Indonesia: both kinds of policies are in place: . Supply-enhancing infrastructure, input subsidies, and research . Import ban on rice designed to promote rice self-sufficiency by raising domestic rice prices
  7. 7. 7 Number of undernourished people in the world, 2010-12 Source: Data from FAO Food Security Indicators, 2012. 329 535 Rest of world Asia
  8. 8. 8 Numbers of undernourished people Source: Data from FAO Food Security Indicators, 2012.
  9. 9. 9 Prevalence and depth of food insecurity: cumulative distribution function
  10. 10. 10 Undernourishment: prevalence and depth
  11. 11. 11 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12 3yearavg.undernourishment(%) China India Proportion of undernourished people: China and India
  12. 12. 12 Proportion of undernourished people: Southeast Asia 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12 3yearavg.undernourishment(%) Indonesia Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Lao
  13. 13. 13 Proportion of undernourished people: South Asia (except India) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12 3yearavg.undernourishment(%) Maldives Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Bangladesh
  14. 14. 14 Proportion of undernourished people: North, West and Central Asia 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12 3yearavg.undernourishment(%) Georgia Kyrgyzstan Mongolia Yemen Tajikistan
  15. 15. 15 Undernourishment and poverty in the developing countries
  16. 16. 16 Undernourishment and poverty in Asia
  17. 17. 17 Stunting among children under 5 years old 42.8 34.4 31.3 31.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1980-1989 2010-2012 %ofchildrenunder5yearsold Asia Other low and middle income countries
  18. 18. 18 Underweight among children under 5 years old 30.0 20.6 15.0 12.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1980-1989 2010-2012 %ofchildrenunder5yearsold Asia Other low and middle income countries
  19. 19. 19 Undernourishment, poverty and economic growth
  20. 20. 20 Undernourishment, food availability and food access
  21. 21. 21 Summary and conclusions 1. The number of undernourished people in Asia is 65% of the global total. 2. In the last two decades undernourishment, childhood stunting and childhood underweight have all declined in Asia faster than in developing countries as a whole. But all these measures remain higher in Asia than elsewhere. 3. In developing countries in general and in Asia poverty reduction is ahead of schedule to achieve the 2015 MDG (goal 1). But undernourishment (hunger) is behind schedule.
  22. 22. 22 Summary and conclusions 4. Undernourishment is significantly reduced by expansion of agricultural output. This effect is by far the most significant component of economic growth. 5. Higher food prices significantly increase the rate of undernourishment. 6. It is not sufficient to rely solely on aggregate economic growth or overall poverty reduction to reduce the rate of undernourishment.
  23. 23. 23 Summary and conclusions 7. Agricultural policy should aim to expand agricultural output without increasing food prices. 8. This is most effectively done by raising agricultural productivity through investments in infrastructure and research, supplemented by food safety nets to assist those unable to benefit from economic growth and to protect against emergencies. 9. Agricultural protectionism operates by raising agricultural prices and thereby harms large numbers of vulnerable people.
  24. 24. 24 Thanks for listening

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