Living with climate change:
Policy options for ensuring food security
in South and Southeast Asia
By
Claudia Ringler, Nicola Cenacchi, Anthony Cavalieri,
Mandy Ewing, Ricky Robertson, Yan Sun, Timothy
Thomas, Hua Xie, Tingju Zhu, and David J. Spielman
International Food Policy Research Institute

Changes in normal annual maximum temperature (°C), 2000 to 2050
Using the A1B scenario
Climate change predictions: Temperature
Source: IFPRI 2011

Changes in mean annual precipitation in (mm), 2000 to 2050
Using the A1B scenario
Climate change predictions: Rainfall
Source: IFPRI 2011

Impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield, 2000 to 2050
Using the A1B scenario
Climate change predictions: Yields
Source: IFPRI 2011

Prevalence of individuals earning $1.25 PPP per day, by province, South Asia
Source: Wood et al. 2010
Adaptive capacity

Source: Wood et al. 2010
Prevalence of individuals earning $1.25 PPP per day, by province, Southeast Asia
Adaptive capacity

Climate change hotspots
• Bangladesh: Dhaka and Rajshahi
• India: Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan,
Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal
• Nepal: Western areas
• Pakistan: Punjab
• Cambodia: Central region
• Vietnam: Red River and Mekong Delta
• Philippines: Luzon

Mitigation strategies with potential
• Mid-season drainage for rice
• Dryland rice
• Direct seeded rice
• Alternative wetting and drying of rice
• Organic inputs for rice, maize, wheat
• Zero/minimum tillage of rice, maize, and wheat

Source: IFPRI 2011
Mitigation strategies with potential
Reductions in CO2 emissions by technology (m tons CO2/year)
South Asia
Southeast Asia

Source: IFPRI 2011
Dryland rice potential
Reductions in CH4 and N2 O emissions, dryland rice (% difference from baseline)

Source: IFPRI 2011
Reduced emissions, higher yields
Yield increases x emission reductions for selected technologies
(% difference from baseline)

Solutions: How do we get there?
• Invest in science and technology
• Invest in development and delivery
• Improve private incentives
• Improve market regulation
• Cooperate, collaborate
• Plan, time, and sequence strategically
• Experiment and adapt
• Involve communities and women
• Involve vulnerable social groups
• Marshall good leadership, good governance
Source: Adapted from Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009

0
7
13
20
26
33
40
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Million2005Nepaleserupees
NARC Other government (2) NGOs(4) TU (2)
Million2005PPPdollars
Source: Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) 2011
Expenditure on agricultural research, Nepal, 1996-2009
Science and technology

Procedures and requirements for wheat variety development in Pakistan
Development and delivery
Source: Arshad et al./BARS, Fatehjang, Punjab, Pakistan 2011

0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Estimatedvaluesofyield(metric
tons/hectare)
Maize
Pearl millet
Rice
Wheat
1992 (Technology shift)1988 (Policy reform)
Maize, pearl millet, rice and wheat yields, India (by state), 1965-2008
Private incentives
Source: Kolady, Spielman, and Cavalieri 2010

Country Regulatory situation
India Interim
Bangladesh Interim
Nepal Interim
Thailand Interim
Cambodia Fully functional
Indonesia Fully functional
Philippines Fully functional
Sri Lanka Interim
The biosafety regulatory situation in South and Southeast Asia
Markets and market regulation

More technologies with potential
• Transgenic abiotic stress tolerance
• Heat, drought tolerance in rice, wheat, maize
• Transgenic nutrient use efficiency
• Nitrogen-use efficient rice, wheat, maize
• Conservation agriculture
• Direct seeded rice, zero tillage wheat
• New crop rotations, soil covers, residue management
• Precision agriculture
• Real time application of ICT to farm production

In conclusion: What will it take?
• Eliminate regulatory uncertainties
• Promote public-private partnerships
• Encourage domestic and foreign investments
• Provide sufficient protection of intellectual property
• Encourage commercialization of public research
• Develop business models that reach smallholders
• Design sensible, targeted subsidy regimes