Myanmar Migration
in a Time of Transformation
Mateusz Filipski, Ben Belton, Sithu Kyaw, and Eaindra Theint
Theint Thu
m.filipski@cigar.org
ReSAKKS-Asia | Bangkok, Thailand | December 12-15, 2017

Introduction

Motivation
• Myanmar one of the largest net emigration flows
in South-East Asia
– Over the period 2005-2010, about half a million
migrated to Thailand (almost 1% of population)
• Myanmar’s cities are growing fast
• We want to know:
– What the impacts are back home
– “Sending Economy” side of the story
• Collect data at household level:
– Systematic and complete information on migrants

• Dry Zone Survey, 1600 HHs, 2017
• Delta Region Survey, 1100 HHs, 2016
• Mon State Survey, 1600 HHs, 2015
• Household component + community
component
• Surveys emphasized income-generating
activities, including migration
Survey Locations

Outline
• Facts about migration:
– How many are leaving?
– Where are they going?
– Why they are leaving?
– What they do at their destination?
• Impacts of migration on economy:
– Migration and Labor Markets
– Migration and Agriculture
– Migration and Remittances
• Conclusions and implications

Facts about Migration
in Rural Myanmar

The questions
• How prevalent is migration?
• Why are they leaving?
• Where are migrants going?

Migration is very prevalent
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
All Surveys Mon State Delta
Region
Dry Zone
40%
49%
16%
30%
Share of Households with a migrant

Nearly half of migrants are women
Men, 55% Men, 55% Men, 56%
Women, 45% Women, 45% Women, 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mon State Delta Region Dry Zone
Men Women

Migration prevalent at all levels of wealth
39% 39%
44%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
No land T1
(Smallest tercile)
T2
(Middle tercile)
T3
(Highest tercile)
Share with of households with migrants
by landholding
Source: 3 Surveys

Migration is motivated by higher wages
41
13
9 8
6 5
3 3 3
31
15
9
11
9
6
3
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
For higher
salary
No/Not
enough agri
land
Not willing to
work farm job
Farm income
is low/not
enough/not
profi
Not enough
food
Government
assignment
For adventure To gain new
skills
For
professional
work in
accordance
wit
Primary Reason Secondary Reason
Reasons for Long-term Migration
Source: Dry Zone Survey

Migration is accelerating
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Dry Zone
International Domestic
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mon State
International Domestic
• Rapid growth over the past 10 years
• Destinations differ between surveys

Migrants follow economic opportunities
International
Domestic Rural -> Urban
Domestic Rural -> Rural

Impacts of Migration
on Rural Myanmar

The questions
• How does it impact the labor availability and
wages?
• What are the consequences for agriculture?
• What is the role of remittances?

One third of the Mon State labor force
is abroad
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
90 to 94
95 to 100
AgeGroups
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Number of People in Thousands
Males Females
Source: Mon State Rural Household Survey, May-June 2015
Mon State Rural Male and Female Population by Age, 2015

Migration is pushing up rural wages
+20%
+15%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2012 2014 2016
Realdailywages(MMK)
Change in real daily wages for male casual workers (2012-2016),
Dry Zone Survey

Migration impacts agricultural practices
• Wages are higher in migrant-sending economies
• Labor becoming too expensive
• Farmers have four main choices:
– Some scale down / halt production (ex. Mon rubber)
– Some switch to less labor-intensive crops (ex. Banana vs.
chili)
– Secondary migration flows
– Mechanization

Out-migration leads to in-migration
International
Domestic Rural -> Urban
Domestic Rural -> Rural
Wage gradient throughout the
state
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
WagedorRicelaborers
Townships in order of distance to Thai border (Ye =
closest)
Wages in Mon state, North to South

Labor shortages & rising wages help drive
mechanization
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Realpurchasevalue(MillionMMK)
Combine 4WT
Surface-water Pump 2WT
Thresher
Real annual value of agricultural machinery purchases, by year and machine type
(2000-2015)
Source: MAAS survey

Remittances contribute to growth
Photos taken in Mon State

Remittances can be very significant
22%
~5%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
MON STATE DELTA REGION DRY ZONE
Contribution of remittances to total income

Conclusions and Implications

Recap
• Large migration flows:
– All income levels, all genders
– Internationally and nationally
– Rural-urban and Rural-rural
• It creates labor shortages and pushes up rural
wages
• Farms are mechanizing to compensate
• Remittances are fueling rural consumption and
construction
• Caveat: we only studied three areas, not
nationally representative

Opportunities for the rural poor?
• Access to Employment:
– Jobs if migrate
– Old local jobs get higher wages (agriculture)
– New local jobs in the growing non-farm rural economy
• Access to Land:
– Migrants free up land for purchase / rental /
sharecropping
• However:
– Rising costs of labor can hurt smallholders (cf. rubber)
– Mechanization alone does not increase yields!

Why this matters to policy makers?
• Migration policies
– Legal status of migrants in Thailand
• Urban development policies
– Population growing fast
• Land policy
– Secure, transferable land rights allow migrants to leave and
return
• Ag development policies
– Farmer profits are getting squeezed
• Trade policies
– Cheap machinery imports are playing a key role
• Finance and banking regulation
– Spread of rural finance is allowing machinery purchases
• We presented findings to Mon State government

Thank you