Assessing Agri-food Trade
Comparative Advantage among
Myanmar’s Neighboring Countries:
Findings from the UN Comtrade
Kevin Chen
Senior Research Fellow and Head of East and Central
Asia Office (ECAO)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Contact email: k.chen@cgiar.org

The Indicators for Myanmar and
Selected Asian Economies (Year 2016)
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Viet Nam Indonesia Cambodia China India
Annual GDP growth Rate % 6.5 3.2 4.2 6.2 5.0 6.9 6.7 7.1
GDP per capita (constant 2010
$US)
1,420 5,901 11,028 1,770 3,974 1,078 6, 894 1,861
GDP Share by agriculture % 28.2 8.3 8.6 18.1 13.5 26.7 8.6 17.4
GDP Share by industry % 29.5 35.8 35.7 36.4 39.3 31.7 39.8 28.8
GDP Share by Services % 42.3 55.8 55.7 45.5 43.7 41.6 51.6 53.8
Total population (million) 52.9 68.9 31.2 92.7 261.1 15.8 1378.7 1324.2
Urbanization ratio 34.7 52.0 75.0 34.0 54.0 21.0 57.0 33.0
The annual inflation rate 2011 10.3 3.7 5.4 21.3 7.5 3.4 8.2 8.5
The annual inflation rate 2016 9.3 1.7 1.9 1.1 2.5 3.5 1.2 3.6
Exchange rate ($US 1 for local
currency)
1,234.8 35.3 4.2 21,935.0 13,308.3 4,058.7 6.6 67.2
Source: The World Bank Database

Myanmar’s Agricultural Sector
 Agriculture contributes to 37.8% of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), 70% of employment, and 25% of total exports earnings (FAO
2017)
 Agricultural potential: Vast land area (65.31 million ha) in three
diverse agroecological zones, abundant water, low-cost labor
resources, and approximate to large markets (e.g., China and India)
 Since 2011, Myanmar has been taking measures to enhance the
performance of its agricultural sector: opening to global trade,
encouraging foreign direct invest, and deepening agricultural policy
reforms (ADB 2013; WTO 2014)
 Objectives: 1) Food security; 2) export promotion; and 3) increasing farm’s income
and welfare
 Missions: 1) Attain maximum market share in regional and global markets for
agro-based value-added agriculture and specialty food products; 2) Improve food
security and poverty alleviation, and 3) Manage green growth
 Enhancing the export competitiveness in Myanmar plays an crucial role in
improving Myanmar’s agricultural performance

Objectives
 Examine Myanmar agricultural export pattern
including export destination, export value, and
export trends of the selected commodities
 Compare the revealed comparative advantages
(RCAs) of Myanmar and its major trade
competitors in agricultural export as well as the
selected commodities
 Consider policy options for enhancing Myanmar
agricultural export competitiveness

Data Source Method
UN Comtrade Relative Comparative Advantage (RCA)
• UN Comtrade contains annual
imports and exports statistics for
more than 160 reporting countries or
regions up to 2016.
• The trade statistics are detailed with
values for disaggregated commodity
broken down by countries.
• The commodities are classified
according to Harmonized System
(HS) and SITC.
• HS code comprises approximately
5,300 article/product descriptions
that appear as headings and
subheadings, arranged in 99
chapters, grouped in 21 sections.
• RCA indicates the relative advantage or
disadvantage of agricultural products in Myanmar’s
exporting destinations as evidenced by trade flows.
• Formula:
𝑋𝑖
𝑀𝑌𝐴
refers to Myanmar’s export of product i;
X 𝑀𝑌𝐴
total exports of Myanmar;
𝑋𝑖
𝑊
world export of products i;
𝑋 𝑊
total world export
• RCA takes a value between 0 and +. A RCA value
between 0 and 1 indicates that a country has a
comparative disadvantage in particular product,
while a value of greater than 1 indicates a revealed
comparative advantage.
• The trade data from 2012-2016 is used.
Data and Method

Note: The export and import values are in 2016 price
Source: UN Comtrade
Agricultural Trade in Myanmar: 2007-16
-2000.0
-1000.0
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Trade Export Import

Export Trends of Major Agricultural
Products in Myanmar

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
Australia
Cambodia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Myanmar
Norway
Pakistan
Philippines
Spain
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
USA
Viet Nam
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
RCA of Overall Agricultural Exports of Myanmar
and Its Competitors

RCA of Myanmar’s Agricultural Exports by 4-Digit
or 6-Digit Levels in the Global Market
The Revealed Competitive Advantage of Myanmar from 2012 to 2016
HS Code Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1005 Maize 0.75 0.60 0.29 0.52 1.21
1006 Rice 18.69 12.71 6.67 8.12 12.60
0303 Frozen fish 7.74 8.04 4.81 7.35 8.27
0304 Fish fillets 2.28 1.92 0.77 0.78 0.91
0306 Crustaceans 17.25 14.84 6.85 9.15 10.42
4001
Natural rubber
16.76 13.61 5.06 9.87 25.11
071321&
071360
Black gram &
pigeon peas 999.90 933.65 453.26 626.83 765.08
0802 Nuts 0.60 0.88 0.68 1.59 1.84
0803 Bananas 1.32 0.87 0.51 1.00 1.21
080711
Watermelons
24.10 4.33 0.35 0.73 0.72
0813 Dry fruits 17.72 6.61 4.49 6.86 8.94
120740 Sesame seeds 56.13 35.08 11.10 15.13 29.17

Identification of Myanmar’s Competing Countries
on Agricultural Exports
 Selected the top 9 exported commodities by 2-digit HS
code.
 Under these 2-digit HS code commodities, selected the top
1 or 2 exported commodities by 4-digit or 6-digit HS code.
 For each of exported commodities selected above, selected
the top four export destinations.
 For each of these destinations identified, identified the top 4
leading exporting countries or regions as Myanmar’s
competitors based on the following rules:
 Chosen Asia countries as the priority for a consideration of
neighboring countries
 If non-Asia country is the top one exporter to Myanmar’s biggest
export destination, or if non-Asia country is among the top four
exporters in more than one destinations, that non-Asia country was
selected as the competitor for Myanmar.

HS Code Commodity Export Destinations
071331 &
071336
Black gram &
pigeon peas
India
(82.29%)
Malaysia
(3.56%)
Indonesia
(3.53%)
Sri Lanka
(2.53%)
4001 Natural rubber China
(74.41%)
Malaysia
(17.92%)
Japan
(3.94%)
Korea
(3.37%)
0306 Crustaceans Japan
(33.41%)
China, Hong Kong
(17.39%)
China
(17.08%)
USA
(11.67%)
1006 Rice China
(31.13%)
Belgium
(16.41%)
France
(8.65%)
Germany
(8.30%)
0303 Frozen fish UK
(33.67%)
Malaysia
(15.48%)
USA
(14.72%)
United Arab Emirates
(11.33%)
120740 Sesame seeds Japan
(53.01%)
Other Asia
(25.91%)
China
(18.6%)
Singapore
(1.65%)
0304 Fish fillets Japan
(26.74%)
Malaysia
(23.82%)
Korea
(17.44%)
UK
(14.66%)
0813 Dried fruits China
(80.23%)
Pakistan
(10.91%)
Malaysia
(8.48%)
United Arab Emirates
(0.27%)
080711 Watermelons China
(92.04%)
Malaysia
(4.17%)
China, Hong Kong
(3.69%)
Russian Federation
(0.10%)
1005 Maize China
(94.4%)
Philippines
(3.95%)
Singapore
(0.91%)
Other Asia
(0.74%)
0803 Bananas China
(99.91%)
Korea
(0.08%)
Singapore
(0.01%)
0802 Nuts India
(97.46%)
Pakistan
(0.98%)
Australia
(0.42%)
UK
(0.38%)
Export Destinations of Major Agricultural Products from Myanmar

HS Code Commodity Export
Destinations
Competitors for each Export
Destinations
Competitors
071331
&
071360
Black gram &
Pigeon peas
India (82.29%),
Malaysia (3.56%),
Indonesia (3.53%),
Sri Lanka (2.53%)
To India: Myanmar, United Rep.
of Tanzania, Mozambique,
Sudan
To Malaysia: Myanmar,
Australia, Thailand, China
To Indonesia: Myanmar,
Ethiopia, Australia, Thailand
To Sri Lanka: Myanmar,
Australia, India, Thailand
Australia, China, India,
Thailand, United Rep. of
Tanzania
0306 Crustaceans Japan (33.41%),
China, Hong Kong
(17.39%),
China (17.08%),
USA (11.67%)
To Japan: Russian Federation,
Viet Nam, India, Indonesia
To China: Canada, USA, New
Zealand, Argentina
To China, Hong Kong: China,
Viet Nam, Australia, USA
To USA: India, Canada,
Indonesia, Ecuador
Canada, China, India,
Indonesia, Russian
Federation, USA, Viet
Nam
Myanmar’s Competitors of Peas and Crustaceans

HS Code Commodity Export
Destinations
Competitors for each Export
Destinations
Competitors
0813 Fruit, dried;
mixtures of
nuts or dried
fruits of this
chapter
China (80.23%),
Pakistan (10.91%),
Malaysia (8.48%),
United Arab
Emirates (0.27%)
To China: Thailand, Myanmar,
USA, Chile
To Pakistan: India, Indonesia,
Afghanistan, Myanmar
To Malaysia: Indonesia,
Thailand, China, India
To United Arab Emirates:
Thailand, India, Turkey, USA
China, India, Indonesia,
Thailand, USA
0303 Fish; frozen UK (33.67%),
Malaysia (15.48%),
USA (14.72%),
United Arab
Emirates (11.33%)
To UK: Norway, Myanmar,
France, Netherlands
To Malaysia: China, Viet Nam,
Indonesia, Japan
To USA: China, Canada, Korea,
other Asia
To United Arab Emirates: other
Asia, Myanmar, India, Indonesia
China, India, Indonesia,
Japan, Norway, Viet Nam
Myanmar’s Competitors of Dried Fruits and
Frozen Fish

HS Code Commodity Export Destinations Competitors for each Export
Destinations
Competitors
120740 Sesame seeds Japan (53.01%),
Other Asia, nes
(25.91),
China (18.6%),
Singapore (1.65%),
Rep. of Korea (0.59%)
To Japan: Nigeria, Paraguay,
United Rep. of Tanzania,
Myanmar
Other Asia: India, Myanmar,
Thailand, Sri Lanka
To China: Ethiopia, Nigeria,
Sudan, United Rep. of
Tanzania
Singapore: India, Mexico,
Nigeria, Myanmar
India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka,
Thailand, United Rep. of
Tanzania
4001 Natural
rubber, balata,
gutta-percha,
guayule, chicle
and similar
gums
China (74.41%),
Malaysia (17.92),
Japan (3.94%),
Rep of Korea (3.37%)
To China: Thailand, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Viet Nam
To Malaysia: Thailand, Cote
d’loire, Viet Nam, Philippines
To Japan: Indonesia, Thailand,
Vet Nam, Malaysia
To Rep of Korea: Indonesia,
Thailand, Vet Nam, Malaysia
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand,
Viet Nam
Myanmar’s Competitors of Sesame Seeds and
Natural Rubber

HS Code Commodity Export
Destinations
Competitors for each Export
Destinations
Competitors
1006 Rice China (31.13%),
Belgium (16.41),
France (8.65%),
Germany (8.30%)
To China: Viet Nam, Thailand,
Pakistan, Cambodia
To Belgium: Spain, Italy,
Netherlands, Pakistan
To France: Italy, Thailand,
Cambodia, Spain
To Germany: Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Cambodia
Cambodia, Italy,
Pakistan, Spain, Thailand,
Viet Nam
0802 Nuts (excludin
g coconuts,
Brazils and
cashew nuts)
India (97.46%),
Pakistan (0.98%),
Australia (0.42%),
UK (0.38)
To India: USA, Iran, Australia, Sri
Lanka
To Pakistan: Indonesia, USA,
Iran, Afghanistan
To Australia: USA, Turkey,
Areas, nes, China
To UK: USA, Germany, Spain,
Italy
China, Indonesia, Iran,
Sri Lanka, USA
Myanmar’s Competitors of Rice and Nuts

Myanmar’s Competitors of Bananas and Fish
Fillets
HS Code Commodity Export
Destinations
Competitors for each Export
Destinations
Competitors
0803 Bananas,
including
plantains
China (99.91%),
Rep of Korea
(0.08%), Singapore
(0.01%)
To China: Philippines, Ecuador,
Thailand, Viet Nam
To Rep of Korea: Philippines,
Ecuador, Guatemala, Peru
Singapore: Philippines,
Malaysia, Ecuador, Mexico
Ecuador, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand
0304 Fish fillets and
other fish
meat
(whether or
not minced);
fresh, chilled
or frozen
apan (26.74%),
Malaysia (23.82%),
Korea (17.44%),
UK (14.66%)
To Japan: Norway, USA, Chile,
China
To Malaysia: Viet Nam,
Indonesia, China, USA
To Korea: Viet Name, USA,
Russian Federation, China
To UK: Iceland, China, Germany,
Russian Federation
China, Indonesia, Norway,
Russian Federation, USA,
Viet Nam

Myanmar’s Competitors of Watermelons and
Maize
HS Code Commodity Export
Destinations
Competitors for each Export
Destinations
Competitors
080711 Watermelons China (92.04%),
Malaysia (4.17%),
China, Hong Kong
SAR (3.69%),
Russian Federation
(0.10%)
To China: Viet Nam, Myanmar,
Malaysia
To Malaysia: Thailand, Rep. of
Korea, Australia, China
To China, Hong Kong SAR:
Malaysia, China, Japan,
Philippines
To Russian Federation: Iran,
Brazil, Turkey, China
China, Japan, Malaysia,
Philippines, Rep. of
Korea, Thailand, Viet
Nam
1005 Maize (Corn) China (94.4%),
Philippines(3.95%,
Singapore(0.91%),
Other Asia, nes
(0.74%)
To China: Ukraines, USA, Lao
People’s Dem. Rep., Myanmar
To Philippines: Thailand,
Argentina, Brazil, USA
To Singapore: Malaysia,
Pakistan, USA, Indonesia
Indonesia, Lao People’s
Dem. Rep, Malaysia,
Thailand, Ukraine, USA

RCA of Major Agricultural Exports of Myanmar
and Its Competitors in the Global Market (1)

RCA of Major Agricultural Exports of Myanmar
and Its Competitors in the Global Market (2)

RCA of Major Agricultural Exports of Myanmar
and Its Competitors in the Global Market (3)

Major Findings from UN Comtrade
 Myanmar is a net importer in agricultural products and its agricultural
export value exhibits a downward trend – not trade at its potential.
 Myanmar’s agricultural exports are very much concentrated in small
number of neighboring countries – two third goes to China and India. For
black grams & pigeon peas and nuts, only concentrates in India, while for
watermelon, natural rubber, dried fruits, and, only concentrates in China.
 Compared with major agricultural exporting countries, Myanmar is
comparably “competitive” in the global markets.
 Myanmar enjoys high level of RCAs in black gram & pigeon peas, sesame
seeds, natural rubber, crustaceans, rice, frozen fish, and dried fruits, while
has a low level of RCAs in maize, nuts, and banana; and suffers a loss of
RCAs in fish fillet and watermelon.
 Compared with its competing countries, Myanmar is highly competitive in
black gram & pigeon peas, crustaceans, dried fruits, and frozen fish, is
competitive in sesame seeds, natural rubber, and rice; and noncompetitive
in fish fillet, banana, nuts, maize, and watermelon.
 Compared with its competing countries, Myanmar fluctuates most in terms
of RCAs

Unofficial Border Trade
 Agricultural exports to Thailand
was “disappearing” – cross border
trade between Thailand and
Myanmar were not recorded and
reported
 It was reported that significant
amount of rice, fish, watermelons,
and cattle might cross Myanmar-
China border without records
 While UN Comtrade data showed
significant decline of watermelons
from Myanmar to China, the
industry source seemed to
indicate increasing sales of
melons to China in the recent
years
“Although the value of border trade
(according to official statistics)
accounts for only 7 per cent of
Myanmar’s total trade value, the
actual value of border trade is likely
to be much higher due to the value
of undocumented trade that flows
through borders, which reached
over US$1 billion in 2006. If this
undocumented trade were to be
included in official statistics, the
value of border trade would have
accounted for around 25 per cent
of Myanmar’s total value of trade in
2006.”
- (Aung 2009)

Specific Policy
Reforms
Before the policy action After the policy action
Tax Reform Prior to the deduction of the
export tax, exported are required
to pay commercial tax at a rate
of 8%, and income tax at a rate
of 2% before exporting goods
(Kubo 2012).
From Aug. 2011 to Feb. 2012, exports of
seven agriculture commodities are
exempted from the commercial tax.
Commercial tax now is levied on exports
of only five commodities (gem gas, crude
oil, teak, and timber) (Naing 2014; WTO
2014).
Export License Exports of most products require
an export license prior to
exporting (Kubo 2012).
In 2013, the Ministry of Commerce
removed license requirements from a
selection of 152 exported commodities
and 166 imported commodities (Naing
2014).
Exchange Rate Myanmar had a multiple
exchange rate regime
comprising both the official
exchange rate and the informal
parallel market exchange rates.
In 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar
replaced a pegged exchange rate (to the
SDR) with a managed floating exchange
rate for the national currency (WTO 2014).
In 2013, the Government abolished
foreign exchange certificates (FEC) and
aligned the exchange rate (Bissinger and
Maung 2014).
Policy Reforms for Agricultural Trade

Weak Linkages of Agri-food Value Chains
Note: The value chain is mainly for the agricultural crops

Foreign Direct Investment in Myanmar
Sector Foreign
capital
brought
in
2009-10 2010-
11
2012-
13
2013-
14
2014-
15
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
Agriculture
crops 265 139 10 20 39. 7 7 15
Livestock
&Fisheries 571 6 96 27 8 97 13
Oil & Gas 22410 10179 248 309 3220 4818
Manufacturing
8816 66 32 401 1827 1502 1065 1180 1056
Transportation&
Communication
8308 1 1190 1679 1931 3081 153
Total 73341 4645 1420 4107 8011 9481 6650 2990
Source: DICA 2017
Note: FDI in 2017-2018 accounts for the investment by July 31th, 2017
Yearly Approved Amount of Foreign Investment by Sector (unit: in US $ in million)

Policy Considerations
Export promotion and development
in four large neighboring markets –
China, India, Thailand and Japan
Export diversification to close the
trade gap – Europe
Food safety, branding, and cross-
border value chain development –
Strategy for attracting FDI
Enhancing agricultural productivity
– Constrained input markets; underdeveloped
infrastructure; ineffective institutions