Achieving SDG2 by 2030 through food systems transformations: Implications for Asia

1. Achieving SDG2 by 2030 through food systems transformations: Implications for Asia Anaka Aiyar Tata-Cornell Institute for Agriculture and Nutrition Cornell university Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030 Oct 30th 2019

2. Transforming FoodSystems for a Rising India • Palgrave Series in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy • Authors: • Prabhu Pingali • Anaka Aiyar • Mathew Abraham • Andaleeb Rahman Download your free copy at: https://tci.cornell.edu/food-systems- book

3. The Post-2015 Development Agenda links hunger, nutrition and agriculture under theSDG framework…

4. 1. : End hunger & ensure access to safe, nutritious & sufficient food 2. : End all forms of malnutrition, including child stunting & wasting by 2025 3. : Double agricultural productivity & incomes of small scale producers 4. : Ensure sustainable production systems & adaptation to climate change & extreme weather events 5. : Maintain genetic diversity of cultivated plants & domesticated animals Goal 2: Zero Hunger Specific Targets for 2030

5. Reduction in severe poverty across Asia -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Nepal Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives Poverty Headcount Ratios for 2010-2015 and change from 2001-2005 HCR<1.90$, PPP Pct_chng(<1.90$ PPP) HCR<3.20$, PPP pct_chng(<3.20$ PPP) Source: WDI Indicators, 2019

6. Inter- and intra- disparities in incomes drive food access 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 BIHAR Afghanistan Nepal UTTARPRADESH WESTBENGAL MADHYAPRADESH JHARKHAND Bangladesh SubSaharanAfrica ODISHA CHHATTISGARH RAJASTHAN SouthAsia Pakistan ANDHRAPRADESH India PUNJAB KARNATAKA GUJARAT TAMILNADU HIMACHALPRADESH KERALA MAHARASHTRA UTTARAKHAND Bhutan HARYANA SriLanka EastAsiaandthe… DELHI Maldives latinAmerica Brazil Mexico GOA GDP per capita 2015-16 (PPP, constant 2011 international $) Based on Authors calculations from National Accounts Statistics in India & WDI Indicators, 2019

7. Catering to diet diversity and feeding urban populations are important to reduce hunger Kcal/capita/day 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2011-2013 1969-1971 1989-1991 2011-2013 1969-1971 1989-1991 2011-2013 1969-1971 1989-1991 2011-2013 1969-1971 1989-1991 2011-2013 Kenya Nigeria Colombia China India Fruits, vegetables, other Meat, eggs, animal fat Pulses Sugar and sweetners Starchy roots Cereals Percentage point growth in urban populations between 2010 & 2050 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00% World Maldives Bhutan India Afghanistan Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Source: WDI Indicators, 2019Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets

9. Child malnutrition has been reducing, but hidden hunger has not Underweight Stunting

10. Dietary related NCDs and obesity has increased quite rapidly Percentage of adults who are over weight (BMI>24.9) Diabetes prevalence in population ages 20 and above 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Source: WDI Indicators, 2019, National family Health Survey 2015-16 (India)

12. Technology has played a pivotal role in increasing cereal yields

13. Source: West. P.C, et al., Nov 2010, “Trading Carbon for Food: Global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land”. PNAS, vol. 107, no. 46, 19647 Cropland distribution and average annual yield Significant Opportunities to Boost Productivity

14. Cropping technologies designed for smallholders are central to achieving SDG2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% South Asia East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Average Share of Agricultural Holdings by Land Size Class = or <2 ha 2-10 ha 10-20 ha >20 ha Data Source: FAO

15. Catering to demand in urban food markets creates new farming opportunities Photo Sources Left photos: Kiera Crowley Top photo: https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2017/01/16/india- supermarkets-gain-from-demonetization-pain/

16. Climate projections caution that Asian regions are at high risk Plate 3.2. Thermal climates (HadCM3-A1F1, 2080s). Undefined Tropics Subtropics, Summer rainfall Subtropics, Winter rainfall Temperate, Oceanic Temperate, Subcontinental Temperate, continental Boreal, Oceanic Boreal, Subcontinental Boreal, continental Arctic Fisher et al 2002

17. Tackling the threat from climate change requires a technology+ approach • Technology plus conservation plus community action • Region specific approaches for tackling climate change have been proposed mostly in the energy sector, but not so much for reducing emissions from the agriculture sector • National policies for climate change adaptation are yet to take shape- much of the focus continues to remain on mitigation • There has been very little private sector participation in these efforts, though consumer awareness is growing

18. SDG 2 success also depends on the achieving other SDGs SDG 2: Zero Hunger Ending Poverty Increasing Environmental Quality Improving Health Goal 1: No poverty Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth Increasing Equality Goal 3: Good health and wellbeing Goal 5: Gender equality Goal 10: Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 12: Responsible production and consumption Goal 13: Climate action Goal 14 & 15: Life in Water & Land

19. • Ending hunger: possible for caloric adequacy but uncertain for access to food diversity, especially micro-nutrient rich food. • Ending all forms of malnutrition: declines in the incidence of child stunting & wasting, but new challenges with obesity. • Double small farm productivity through sustainable production systems: possible where technology adaptation to smaller scale production is made available and it is possible to orient farmers towards crop diversification opportunities. • Adaptation to climate change: unlikely unless coordinated efforts are made to preserve and enhance natural resources. • Sustainable Production Systems: Regional efforts to conserve technology, resources and plant diversity and create equitable solutions for small holders Prospects for Achieving SDG 2

20. Transforming FoodSystems for a Rising India • Palgrave Series in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy • Authors: • Prabhu Pingali • Anaka Aiyar (www.anaka-aiyar.com) • Mathew Abraham • Andaleeb Rahman Download your free copy at: https://tci.cornell.edu/food-systems- book