The Agricultural Growth and Development Policy (AGRODEP) Modeling Consortium_2009

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"The Agricultural Growth and Development Policy (AGRODEP) Modeling Consortium" presentation by Tidiane Ngaido, Ousmane Badiane, Maximo Torrero, and Antoine Bouet at the NEPAD, IFPRI, AGRA and World Bank Meeting to Align Efforts on Agricultural Policy and Knowledge Systems, Dakar, Senegal, January 6-7, 2009.

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The Agricultural Growth and Development Policy (AGRODEP) Modeling Consortium_2009

  1. 1. THE AGRICULTURALGROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY (AGRODEP) MODELING CONSORTIUM T. Ngaido, O. Badiane, M. Torrero, and A. Bouet International Food Policy Research Institute Wednesday, January 07, 2009
  2. 2. OUTLINE• POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS• GROWING DEMAND FOR ANALYTICAL CAPACITY• THE AGRODEP CONCEPT• MODELING STRUCTURE• GOVERNANCE STRUCTURESOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
  3. 3. POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS• GLOBALIZATION: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RESPONSES• RECENT GROWTH RECOVERY: STRATEGIC LESSONS• CAADP: KNOWLEDGE CONTENT AND REQUIREMENTS • 6% GROWTH TARGET: GROWTH OPTIONS AND POVERTY IMPACTS • 10 % BUDGET: PE TRACKING AND EFFICIENCY • POLICY RENEWAL: PEER REVIEW, BENCHMARKING, AND LEARNING• AFRICA FACES NEW CHALLENGES INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY CRISIS, AND THE FINANCIAL CRISISSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3
  4. 4. GROWING DEMAND FOR ANALYTICAL CAPACITY• LINKING UP WITH GLOBAL MODELS • BETTER REPRESENTATION AND CUSTOMIZATION OF AFRICA• CREATING CRITICAL MASS OF SKILLS • ACQUISITION AND UPGRADING OF MODELING TOOLS• ENHANCING DATA AVAILABILITY • LINK UP AND ADD VALUE TO DIFFERENT DATASETS• COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS • CONNECTING RESEARCHING • USING EXISTING SKILLSSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4
  5. 5. THE AGRODEP CONCEPT• SPONSORSHIP• MODELING STRUCTURE AND TOOLS• DATA INFRASTRUCTURE• MEMBERSHIP, NETWORKING, PARTNERSHIP• COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCESOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5
  6. 6. MODELING STRUCTURE Page 6
  7. 7. OVERALL AGRODEP MODELING STRUCTURE• OPERATE AS A COORDINATION MECHANISM, BUILDING UPON EXISTING INSTITUTIONS AND NETWORKS• INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING KEY COMPONENTS: – A) A SHARED MODELING INFRASTRUCTURE – B) A COMMON DISTRIBUTED DATABASE – C) A NETWORK OF EXPERTS – D) A COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERSSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  8. 8. A Shared Modeling Infrastructure• CONSOLIDATED CORE OF EXISTING MODELS DEALING WITH SECTOR, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUES AND LONG TERM PROJECTIONS• POTENTIAL POINT OF DEPARTURE: A SET OF MODELS USED AND/OR ELABORATED AT IFPRI: - MIRAGE MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMY (MULTI-COUNTRY MULTI-SECTOR COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL), - IFPRI SINGLE-COUNTRY COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL ELABORATED BY LOFGREN, HARRIS AND ROBINSON (LHR), - IMPACT MODEL (MULTI-SECTOR PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL DEVOTED TO ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS DEALING WITH LONG TERM PROJECTIONS)• OTHER MODELS CAN BE INCLUDED IN THIS LIST VERY SOON: THE GTAP MODEL, THE EMM MODEL.SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  9. 9. A COMMON DISTRIBUTED DATABASE• CONSTITUTION OF A NEW GIANT DATABASE WOULD BE A VERY RISKY AND COSTLY PROJECT• BETTER TO LINK EXISTING KEY DATA SOURCES, COMPLEMENT IF NECESSARY AND DEVELOP SHARED STANDARDS, FORMATS, AND EXCHANGE PROTOCOLS• A FIRST SET OF DATABASES CAN INCLUDE: - SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIXES AND HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS AVAILABLE AT IFPRI, - GTAP DATABASE ON MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS, - MACMAP DATABASE ON MARKET ACCESS, - CEPII DATABASES ON TRADE (BACI), GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS (CHELEM - CEPII)… - DATA ON AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONESSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  10. 10. A NETWORK OF EXPERTS• CONSORTIUM WOULD BUILD ON EXISTING AFRICAN ORGANIZATIONS (ASARECA, CORAF, FANRPAN…) AS WELL AS LEADING UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH ENTITIES (PRIVATE AND PUBLIC)• ALSO LINK UP WITH OTHER LEADING CENTERS OF EXPERTISE, – CG CENTERS, – RESEARCH CENTERS IN EUROPE (CEPII, LEI…), – UNIVERSITIES IN NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE (PURDUE UNIVERSITY, LAVAL UNIVERSITY, PARIS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS…) – OTHER GLOBAL MODELING CONSORTIA: GTAP, PEP.SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  11. 11. A COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERSA SET OF SPECIFIC STAKEHOLDERS AND INTEREST GROUPS WOULD BE ESTABLISHED…• TECHNICAL EXCHANGE;• TRAINING AND CAPACITY BUILDING;• STRATEGIC POLICY DEBATE.SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  12. 12. A PROPOSED MODELING ARCHITECTURESOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  13. 13. GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE Page 13
  14. 14. PROGRAM GOVERNANCE AND COORDINATIONCLEAR MECHANISM FOR GOVERNANCE, COUNSEL, AND INTER-INSTITUTIONAL COORDINATION • STEERING COMMITTEE (MADE UP OF KEY AFRICAN PARTNERS) DECIDES AND GUIDES ON KEY MATTERS OF POLICY, PLANNING AND RESOURCE MOBILIZATION • SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY BOARD PROVIDES INPUT TO TECHNICAL ISSUES (SCIENTIFIC PARTNERS) • PROGRAM COORDINATORS HANDLE DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONAL MATTERS, INCLUDING PROGRAM COORDINATION, PROJECT DEVELOPMENT, PREPARATION AND IMPLEMENTATION, AND FIELDING JOINT MISSIONS TO SUPERVISE ON-GOING OPERATIONSSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  15. 15. PROGRAM STRUCTURE NSO DEVELOPMENT AT COUNTRY LEVEL NSO DATA NSO STEERING PROGRAM COMMITTEE COORDINATORS NSO CS CHAMPIONS MODELING NETWORK COUNTRY SCIENTIFIC CS ADVISORY BOARD CS CSSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 15
  16. 16. PROGRAM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION: COUNTRY-SPECIFIC PROGRAMS• COUNTRIES (COUNTRY MODELING CHAMPIONS) IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT AND EXTENSIVE CONSULTATION WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO FOSTER COUNTRY BUY-IN AND OWNERSHIP• MORE EMPHASIS ON BUILDING CAPACITY TO PLAN AND IMPLEMENT NEEDED DATA AND USE AND BE ABLE TO MODIFY STARTING MINIMUM MODELING TOOLS• BUILDING ON THE EXISTING CAPACITY – START FROM THE WEAKEST LINK AND MOVE ON TO OTHERS• INTERACTION OF PRODUCERS (SUPPLIERS) AND USERS (CLIENTS) OF DATA INCREASES LONG-TERM VIABILITY OF THE PROGRAM• PROMOTE “CULTURE OF STATISTICS” AND DEMOCRATIZATION OF DATA ACCESS (OPEN DATA ACCESS POLICY – PRE-CONDITIONS FOR PARTICIPATION IN AGRODEPSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  17. 17. PROGRAM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION: REGIONAL TRAINING, WORKSHOPS AND DATA BANK• REGIONAL WORKSHOPS/SEMINARS (AGRODEP LED) • LEARN THE LATEST TECHNIQUES FROM WORLD EXPERTS • SHARE AND DISSEMINATE BEST PRACTICES • EXCELLENT VENUE FOR PEER LEARNING, NETWORKING AND ORGANIZING HORIZONTAL COOPERATION• REGIONAL TRAINING PROGRAM COURSES (AGRODEP LED) • A STRUCTURED KNOWLEDGE BUILDING ON STARTING MODELING TOOLS. THIS MINIMUM CORE OF MODELING TOOLS COULD INCREASE OVER TIME• REGIONAL DATA BANK • NEEDED VALUE ADDED FOR DATA USERS BY INTRODUCING STANDARDIZED DATA LABELING AND VERY DETAIL DOCUMENTATION OF DATA SETS • DATA ACCESS AND DISSEMINATION MADE EASY • CERTIFICATION ROLE OF AGRODEPSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  18. 18. Data Dissemination Toolkit On-line analysis Data CD-ROMs, DVDsdocumentation XML metadata Websites SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 18
  19. 19. Next steps• DAKAR WORKSHOP • PARTICIPANTS: 37 • INSTITUTIONS • IFPRI, CIRAD, UNECA, CORAF, LAVAL University, CRES, ISRA, Institute Hassan II, FAO, University of the Free state, University of Pretoria, University of Nairobi, Universite Catholique de Louvain, CMA/WCA, IRD, University of Ghana, CIRAD, CEPII, Center for World Food studies, ASARECA, GTAP • Countries • USA, France, Ethiopia, Senegal, Canada, Senegal, Senegal, Morocco, Italy • South Africa, South Africa, Kenya, Belgium, Senegal, Ghana, France, France, Netherlands, Uganda, USA• WORKSHOP REPORTS (JANUARY)• PROPOSAL DEVELOPMENT (FEBRUARY)SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 19

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