Strategic policy analysis 24 06


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ReSAKSS-AfricaLead Workshop on Strengthening Capacity for Strategic Agricultural Policy and Investment Planning and Implementation in Africa
Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, June 25th‐ 26th 2012

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Strategic policy analysis 24 06

  1. 1. STRATEGIC ANALYSIS UNDER CAADP PROCESSWorkshop on Strengthening Capacity for Strategic Agricultural Policy  and Investment Planning and Implementation in Africa  Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi on 25th‐ 26th April 2012 Paul Guthiga, ReSAKSS‐ECA
  2. 2. Key Issues in Agricultural Development 2
  3. 3. Importance of Agriculture in African Economies• Agriculture remains a key sector in most countries in Africa; – Part of strategy for achieving economic growth, poverty reduction & food security Source: compiled by ReSAKSS based on the mostly recently available country sources 3
  4. 4. Low budgetary allocation… 4
  5. 5. Sector Growth‐1• After several decades of stagnation; – The continent posted positive overall GDP growth rates & agricultural growth during the last decade• Impressive progress in agricultural GDP growth;  – Average rate of 4 percent between 2007 and 2009• With differences in performance among countries… 5
  6. 6. A g G D P g ro w th (A n n u a l % c h a n g e ) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 B u ru n d i DRC C o m o ro s D jib o u ti Egypt E ritre a E th io p ia Average 1999-2001 Kenya L ib y a M adagascar M a u ritiu s Average2002-4 M a la w i Sector Growth ‐2 Rwanda Source: Authors’ computations based on data on ReSAKSS Website Sudan S w a z ila n d S e y c h e lle s Average 2005-2007 T a n z a n ia Uganda Z a m b ia Z im b a b w e6
  7. 7. Sector Growth…3 • The countries that met the CAADP target included; – Rwanda (8.4%), Ethiopia (7.7%), Tanzania (7.3%) and Malawi (6.5%). • However, high growth rates in agricultural GDP have not  invariably translated to reduction in poverty and hunger.  – In some countries there is marginal or no reduction in poverty despite  high growth in  agricultural GDP. – Need for targeting investments subsectors or in geographical regions with  potential for high impact on poverty 7
  8. 8. Sector Growth…4 8
  9. 9. Agricultural productivity…1 • Ag. productivity growth in Africa, especially in SSA, has been  impressive since the mid‐1980s• Labor productivity risen faster than land productivity in the  continent as a whole…• But in SSA and in some countries land productivity has risen  faster than labor productivity.. 9
  10. 10. Land and Labour productivity in SSA and Sub‐ regions (1961‐2009) Source: ReSAKSS ATOR, 2011 10
  11. 11. Labour and Land Productivity in Selected  Countries (1961‐2009)Source: ReSAKSS ATOR, 2011 11
  12. 12. Total Factor Productivity in SSA (1961=1)• Slight improvement in 1960s followed by rapid deterioration till  mid 1980s• Very little technical change over the whole period 12
  13. 13. Maize productivity…1• Maize is the key staple in most countries in the region.  • Maize yields in the majority of countries in the COMESA  region are very low; – Mostly less than 2 tones/ha compared to a world average of 5  tones/ha• Yield decline has occurred in several countries in the region  over the past decade 13
  14. 14. Maize Productivity…2 14
  15. 15. Production versus Productivity Growth  2006 ‐ 2010 production growth rates 2006 ‐ 2010 Yield growth rates Beans Maize Beans MaizeCOMESA  2.4 5.0 1.7 1.3East Africa  2.4 3 0.9 ‐1.4Burundi ‐0.8 2.0 5.0 ‐1.0Comoros 5.1 0.5DRC 0.9 0.0 0.0 ‐0.01Djibouti 0.8 ‐2.6 3.7 ‐12.4Egypt 0.3 4.2 ‐2.3 ‐3.1Eritrea ‐4.5 1.3 Production Ethiopia 16.5 3.4 5.7 ‐0.1 is growing Kenya ‐5.2 ‐2 0.7 ‐4.7 faster than Libya 2.2 ‐1.5 0.1 ‐1.7Madagascar 1.0 0.5 ‐0.8 ‐4.0 productivityMalawi 8.0 8.9 9.8 7.3Mauritius 17.2 3.8Rwanda 2.9 51.1 5.5 36.9Sudan ‐2.8 ‐21 ‐0.4 4.1Swaziland ‐1.1 6.1 0.3 4.6Uganda 2.0 1.9 ‐0.4 ‐0.3Tanzania 3.1 5.6 ‐0.8 ‐0.6Zambia 18.2 5.1 15Zimbabwe ‐5.7 ‐7.2 ‐3.9 ‐3.3
  16. 16. Poverty trends• Africa as a whole has experienced a moderate decline in the  rate of poverty since 1990• From 47.0 percent in 1990–95 to 46.5 percent in 1995–2003  and 44.3 percent in 2003–09. • The COMESA region experienced similar declining trend, with  different levels of intensities across countries.  16
  17. 17. Poverty declining.. but still high (1) International Poverty Line: Poverty rates $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)Country Name Most recent year Most recent poverty rates 2011 Estimated RatesBurundi 2006 81.3 78.3Comoros 2004 46.1DRC 2006 59.2Egypt 2005 1.9 2.2Ethiopia 2005 39.0 25.6Kenya 2005 19.7 19.8Madagascar 2005 67.8 55.2Malawi 2004 73.9 64.4Rwanda 2005 76.8 77.1Swaziland 2001 62.9 45.7Tanzania 2007 67.9 58.3Uganda 2009 28.7 21.4Zambia 2004 64.9 62.2Source: ; 2011 Estimates are authors calculations based on  17“business as usual scenarios”
  18. 18. Food Insecurity and Malnutrition Global Hunger Index (GHI)504540353025201510 5 0 Burundi Comoros DRC Djibouti Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Rwanda Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe 1990 2003 2010 Key:  • 0 (No hunger) • 20.0‐29.9 (Alarming hunger) • 30 and above (Extremely Alarming) 18
  19. 19. Trends in GHI…hunger has reduced, but   increased in some countries % Change in GHI values % Change in GHI values  Country 1990‐2010 2003‐2010 Burundi 17.5 ‐10.3 Comoros 5.7 ‐9.4 DRC 60.8 9.0 Djibouti ‐23.5 12.4 Ethiopia ‐32.3 ‐18.8 Kenya ‐15.7 ‐8.9 Madagascar ‐5.5 ‐8.1 Malawi ‐43.5 ‐28.3 Mauritius ‐8.2 76.3 Rwanda ‐18.4 ‐15.1 Sudan ‐18.4 ‐18.6 Swaziland ‐19.4 ‐27.4 Tanzania ‐20.7 ‐30.9 Uganda ‐24.6 ‐19.5 Zambia ‐14.4 ‐21.6 Zimbabwe 3.5 ‐9.9 19Source: Authors’ computation
  20. 20. Rising food prices worsen hunger situation…400350300250200150100 50 0 Jan‐07 Apr‐07 Jul‐07 Oct‐07 Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jul‐08 Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐10 Jul‐10 Oct‐10 Jan‐11 Apr‐11 Jul‐11 Oct‐11 Jan‐12 Apr‐12 Ethiopia‐ Food Total FAO GLOBAL‐ Food Kenya‐ Food & Non‐Alcoholic Drink Malawi‐ Food  MauritiusFood And Non Alcoholic Beverages  Rwanda‐ Food And Non‐Alcoholic Beverages Tanzania‐ Food and Non alcoholic beverages Uganda‐ Food Zambia‐ Food Djibouti ‐ Food 20
  21. 21. Market Access and Trade• Agricultural trade accounts for about a third of the total intra‐ COMESA trade • Regional trade in food staples has implications on regional  food security • But.. Intra‐regional trade  especially agriculture remain low• Constrained by – Trade barriers; Tariff & non‐tariff barriers – Poor infrastructure 21
  22. 22. Trend in the Structure of Intra‐COMESA Trade Source: COmStat 22
  23. 23. Environmental degradation & climate change• Environmental degradation is a prevalent problem;• Broad consensus that climate change poses a serious risk to agricultural production and food security in Africa• Impacts of climate change manifested through extreme and increasingly variable weather conditions.• High dependence on rain‐fed agriculture, coupled with weak capacity to adapt pose huge threat for agriculture and livelihoods• But… little weight in policy 23
  24. 24. POLICY ANALYSIS 24
  25. 25. Agricultural Policy Making…1 • Agriculture has regained policy prominence; hence policy initiatives like CAADP.• New approach; evidence‐based and inclusive policymaking processes• Increasing economic integration hence more policy making processes at the RECs level; – trade policies, – macro‐economic policies, – agricultural policy etc 25
  26. 26. Agricultural Policy Making…2 • But, …little understanding of policy‐making processes and political economy motivations.• Entry of many new actors in the policy arena.• Consensus that persistent problems of poverty and  food insecurity can be addressed; correct  identification of policies and their implementation.• But the problem of poor policy formulation and  implementation still persist. 26
  27. 27. Agricultural Policy Making…3 • Policies are often; – Formulated without evidence,  – Likely impacts are poorly analysed and understood – Good policies are hindered by poor implementation.  • The changing policy environment require; – Increased understanding of policy making processes and – Skills and tools to effectively participate in policy processes  27
  28. 28. Characteristics of public policies..1• Problem‐centred: attempt to address specific problems affecting specified groups in the society• Based on scientific methods to be able to convince stakeholders on reliability and some degree of objectivity;• Normative – Not completely objective as value judgement cannot be entirely eliminated; 28
  29. 29. Characteristics of public policies..2• Involves some art, craft and persuasion to  marshal various interest groups especially the  losers in a policy decision • Multi‐disciplinary: Good public policies  incorporate ideas from different fields such as  economics, sociology, biology, political  science, etc 29
  30. 30. Steps in Policy Analysis…1• Define and analyze the problem – Questions ;Who is affected and how seriously? – may include looking for causes• Construct policy alternatives  – might be the most important step – want to encourage creativity 30
  31. 31. Steps in Policy Analysis…2• Develop evaluative criteria – effectiveness, efficiency, equity, political feasibility – assess potential of different criteria – will vary depending on the problem• Assess policy alternatives – ask which is likely to produce desired outcomes• Draw conclusions – some may advocate a single policy action, but  others may not – be sure of the information gathered 31
  32. 32. Strategic Analysis Under CAAD Process 32
  33. 33. Strategic Issues…1• What has been the past performance and outlook for agricultural growth and poverty reduction?• What are the Strategic options and sources for growth and poverty reduction?• What growth rates are needed to achieve set development targets?• What investment options can generate the needed growth? 33
  34. 34. Strategic Issues…2• Which sub‐sectors within agriculture have the highest potential to deliver on development goals e.g. poverty reduction?• What levels of funding is needed to achieve the set goals?• What kind of strategic analysis and knowledge support systems is needed to guide implementation of identified strategies at country level? 34
  35. 35. Major outputs from strategic analysis…1• Country background papers and brochures and briefs utilized in CAADP roundtables that examined• The brochures and briefs have been utilized in countries such as: Benin, Burundi, Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Senegal, the Gambia, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Tanzania, Togo among others.• Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction for countries such as: Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique, Zambia, Malawi, Ghana 35
  36. 36. Major outputs from strategic analysis..2• CAADP Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) framework• Development of high quality databases, advanced policy modelling tools, and detailed baselines. 36
  37. 37. THANK YOU 37
  38. 38. Fertilizer consumption Kg/ ha arable land LOW fertilizer use ; average 30kg/ha 38