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Seminar yade-taondyande-05-06-13

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Food Consumption Dynamics in West Africa, presented by Mbaye Yade and Maurice Taondyandé from ReSAKSS-WA at West Africa Hub Seminar, 05 June 2013

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Seminar yade-taondyande-05-06-13

  1. 1. www.iita.org WEST AFRICA HUB SEMINAR 05 JUNE 2013 FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICA By Mbaye Yade and Maurice Taondyandé ReSAKSS-WA
  2. 2. www.iita.org INTRODUCTION ANALYSIS BASED ON HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPLEMENTED IN 7 COUNTRIES: • BURKINA FASO (1994 & 2009) • COTE D’IVOIRE (1993 & 2008) • GHANA (1992 & 2006) • MALI (1989 & 2006) • NIGER (2005) • SENEGAL (1994 & 2002) • TOGO (2006) • COUNTRIES FOOD BALANCE SHEETS
  3. 3. www.iita.org OUTLINE HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS AND INEQUALITIES CALORIE INTAKE ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARE TRENDS FOOD CONSUMPTION (QUANTITIES) TRENDS DETERMINANTS OF FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS FOOD CONSUMPTION FORECAST
  4. 4. www.iita.org INCOME DISTRIBUTION
  5. 5. www.iita.org HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS
  6. 6. www.iita.org INEQUALITY TRENDS
  7. 7. www.iita.org CALORIE INTAKE
  8. 8. www.iita.org DIET DIVERSIFICATION CONTRIBUTION OF FOOD PRODUCTS TO CALORIE INTAKE
  9. 9. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Share of food expenditure in total expenditure
  10. 10. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Food expenditure share according to household income level
  11. 11. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Absolute budget shares in 2000s Item and item groups Burkina Faso 2009 Mali 2006 Senegal 2002 Côte d'Ivoire 2008 Ghana 2006 Cereals 55.1 44.5 31.4 25.7 22.8 Rice 12.8 19 17 18.6 11.2 Maize 11.9 4 0.5 3.6 5.5 Millet/sorghum 27 17.7 4.2 0.4 0.6 Wheat 2.3 3.5 9.3 3 5.1 Other cereals 1.1 0.4 0.4 0 0.3 Root/tub and plantain 0.6 1.9 2.4 16.8 15 Cassava 6.6 7.1 Yam 6.2 4.8 Other root and tub 0.9 0.4 Plantain 3 2.8 Fruits and vegetables 6.1 9.9 12.6 15.7 13.9 Animal products and fish 10 22.2 25.8 22.6 29.2
  12. 12. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARE Rice Trends
  13. 13. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Maize Trends
  14. 14. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Millet/sorghum Trends
  15. 15. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Wheat Trends
  16. 16. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Roots and tubers Trends
  17. 17. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Fruits and vegetables Trends
  18. 18. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Animals products and fish
  19. 19. www.iita.org PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS RICE
  20. 20. www.iita.org GREAT DEPENDENCY ON RICE IMPORTS
  21. 21. www.iita.org PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS MILLET/SORGHUM
  22. 22. www.iita.org PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS WHEAT
  23. 23. www.iita.org WHAT DRIVED THE CHANGES IN FOOD CONSUMPTION
  24. 24. www.iita.org ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
  25. 25. www.iita.org ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
  26. 26. www.iita.org FOOD CONSUMPTION OUTLOOK IN WEST AFRICA
  27. 27. www.iita.org TOTAL MARGINAL BUDGET SHARE OF FOOD DEMAND
  28. 28. www.iita.org MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF STAPLE PRODUCTS IN URBAN AREAS
  29. 29. www.iita.org MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF STAPLE PRODUCTS IN RURAL AREAS
  30. 30. www.iita.org MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS IN URBAN AREAS
  31. 31. www.iita.org MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS IN RURAL AREAS
  32. 32. www.iita.org CUMULATED DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2020
  33. 33. www.iita.org CUMULATED DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2020
  34. 34. www.iita.org CUMULATED FOOD BALANCE 2010-2020
  35. 35. www.iita.org CONCLUSIONS • CALORIE REQUIREMENTS MET IN AVERAGE IN BURKINA FASO, COTE D’IVOIRE AND SENEGAL; AND NOT IN NIGER AND TOGO • DIET CHARACTERIZED BY EXCESSIVE CONSUMPTION OF CARBOHYDRATES AND UNDERCONSUMPTION OF FAT AND PROTEIN • SHARE OF FOOD EXPENDITURE IN TOTAL EXPENDITURE VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 39% TO 60 % • INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF IMPORTED COMMODITIES (RICE AND WHEAT) AT THE EXPENSE OF LOCAL FOOD • WITH RESPECT TO ANIMAL PRODUCTS: INCREASE OF FISH IMPORTS AT EXPENSE OF LOCAL MEAT
  36. 36. www.iita.org CONCLUSIONS • URBAIZATION SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE OVERALL TRENDS IN FOOD DEMAND, IN PARTICULAR FOR RICE AND WHEAT • DECREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF LOCAL FOOD CAN BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE POORS WHILE INCREASE IN RICE AND IMPORTED PRODUCTS TO THE RICHER QUINTILES • PROJECTED IMPORT NEEDS FOR WHEAT (100% OF DEMAND); RICE AND FISH (50% OF DEMAND); CASSAVA (15% OF DEMAND); YAM (10% OF DEMAND) • PROJECTED EXPORT POTENTIAL FOR MAIZE, MILLET/SORGHUM AND PLANTAIN
  37. 37. www.iita.org THANK YOU

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