Re sakss presentation on project management mburu 2


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Re sakss presentation on project management mburu 2

  1. 1. Project Management John MburuDepartment of Agricultural Economics, University of Nairobi
  2. 2. THE PROJECT CONCEPT• A project represents a particular set of choices (or interventions) over time to move from a present situation to an envisaged future situation• In essence a project is an instrument of change
  3. 3. DEFINITION OF A PROJECT• “A proposal for capital investments where a cost stream results in a certain flow of benefits over a specified period” (FAO)• “An investment asset from which we can expect to realize benefits over an extended period of time”- (Gittinger, 1982)• “A proposal for capital investments to create opportunities for producing goods and services.”
  4. 4. GENERAL TYPES OF PROJECTS• Privately financed projects, including private businesses• Government (public) projects (initiatives)
  5. 5. CLASSIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT PROJECTSFunctional classification: •Projects aimed at technical innovation •Expanding the natural resource base •Improvement in the living conditions of previously disadvantaged groups • Improved market infrastructure •Institutional capacity development •Multifunctional investment projects •Policy and institutional reforms
  6. 6. WHY DO PROJECTS FAIL?• A lack of ownership and responsibility• Problems of project design and implementation• The use of inappropriate technology• Inadequate or inappropriate infrastructure• Failure to appreciate the social and political environment• Administrative problems• Changing economic situations and market conditions• Externally driven project initiatives• Problems related to poor analysis• Unrealistic expectations• Unsupportive policy environment
  8. 8. Project CycleIdentification – conceptualizationPreparation – objectives and activities required toachieve objectivesAppraisal – evaluation of alternative options andactions (ex-ante analysis)Approval/rejection (decision making)Implementation Investment period Development period Monitoring CompletionEvaluation (ex-post analysis) including impactassessment
  9. 9. •RESEARCH PROJECTS VS DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS•Research project DIAGNOSIS SOCIO-ECONOMIC Policy & Planning Institutional (screening ex- On-station issues ante) experimentation Assessment On-farm experimentation Modification/re- (on-going) planning Assessment (ex-post) Modification/re- planning Recommendations Wider dissemination
  10. 10. •Development Project Identification Preparation and Analysis Appraisal Implementation Evaluation and Impact
  12. 12. IDENTIFICATION (DIAGNOSIS) Finding potentially fundable projects Sources Technical specialists Local leaders Politicians Existing projects Sector studies Communities
  13. 13. Aspects To Consider in Project Planning & AssessmentTechnical aspects (physical input-output ofgoods and services)Institutional - Organizational - Managerialaspects (including customs, tenure, localorganizations, cultural setting)Social aspects (Broader social implications -resource and income distribution, employmentopportunities)Commercial and Business aspects (securingsupplies, market demand)
  14. 14. Aspects To Consider in Project Planning & Assessment (Cont.)Financial aspectsEconomic aspects (Economicefficiency, deals with costs andbenefits)Environmental aspects(biological and physical effects)Socio-cultural aspects
  15. 15. Logical Framework Analysis (LFA)
  16. 16. Logical Framework Analysis (LFA• What is LFA? – A designing approach that can be used for planning, designing, implementing and evaluating projects or programmes• Steps in LFA – Situation Analysis – Strategy Analysis – Project Planning Matrix – Implementation
  17. 17. Situation Analysis(1) Stakeholder Analysis(2 ) Problem Analysis(3 ) Objective Analysis
  18. 18. 1) Stakeholder Analysis – Who are the stakeholders involved in the project, and how are they affected?• Consider the following: – Who will be involved in the log-frame development? – Where will the development be conducted? – Who will facilitate the development of the log-frame? – What background materials, papers and expertise may be needed? – What materials and logistics are required?
  19. 19. (2) Problem AnalysisWhich are the problems theproject is addressing?What are the root causes of thoseproblems?What is the larger picture inwhich those problems and theirroot causes exist?-What are the links between theproblems?
  20. 20. Problem Analysis (cont’d)Problem Tree• Brainstorming techniques can be used to identify the main problems• After all of the problems are displayed they should then be clustered into groups of similar issues• The problem tree is developed by: 1. moving problems from the clusters of problems 2. adding new problems that emerge 3. problems can be moved up or down the tree as required
  21. 21. (2) Problem Analysis:Example of a Problem Tree: one main problem (EFFECT) a series of lower order problems (CAUSE)
  22. 22. 3) Objectives Analysis• ... a procedure for systematically – 1. identifying – 2. categorising – 3. specifying – 4. balancing out ...objectives of all parties involved in a specific situation• Objectives Tree – 1. Problems are restated as objectives – 2. Positive mirror image of the problem tree
  23. 23. (3) Objective Analysis:Example of an Objectives Tree: top of the tree is theEND desired, lower levels are the MEANS to the end MDS 521 IRUNGU 2011
  24. 24. Strategy Analysis• Searching for and deciding on solutions• Follows the problems and objectives analysis• Prerequisite to designing action strategies Conducting a Strategy Analysis: 1. Ordering sequence of the problem and objective trees 2. Clustering objectives 3. Feasibility of different interventions 4. Continuous task in project management
  25. 25. The process of strategy formulation 25
  26. 26. Strategy Analysis MDS 521 IRUNGU 2011
  27. 27. Project Planning Matrix (logframe matrix):• Developed from the strategy analysis by filling in the columns of the matrix as shown
  28. 28. Narrative Objectively Means of ImportantSummary Verifiable Verification Assumptions(intervention logic) IndicatorsGOALS / Measures of goal Various sources of Goal / PurposeOBJECTIVES achievement information, linkages methods usedPROJECT End of project Various sources of Output / PurposePURPOSE status information, linkages methods usedOUTPUTS / Magnitudes of Various sources of Input / OutputRESULTS outputs, information, linkages planned completion methods dates usedINPUTS / Types/levels of Project data, other Initial AssumptionsACTIVITIES resources, starting sources of regarding the dates information causality of the programme
  29. 29. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION• Operational phase of a project to achieve the expected outputs/results• Plan of Operations work plans / work schedules project budget / resources plans personnel plans material and equipment plan / procurement plan / staff training plans
  31. 31. WHAT IS MONITORING?Day-to-day follow up of activities duringimplementation to measure progress andidentify deviationsRoutine follow up to ensure activities areproceeding as planned and are on scheduleRoutine assessment of activities and resultsAnswers the question, “what are we doing?”
  32. 32. TYPES OF MONITORING• Progress – How much was achieved? – When was it achieved? – How was it achieved? – At what cost?• Process – What happens? – Why?
  33. 33. KEY STEPS IN PROGRESS MONITORING1. Establishing the monitoring unit/system2. Situation review and selecting key project process and indicators3. Observing key processes4. Reflecting on /analysis of results5. Follow-up action
  34. 34. WHAT IS EVALUATION?Episodic assessment of overallachievement and impactsSystematic way of learning from experienceto IMPROVE current activities andpromote better planning for futureactionDesigned specifically with intention toattribute changes to intervention itselfAnswers the question, “what have weachieved and what impact have wemade”
  35. 35. WHY EVALUATE?Determines program effectiveness ,efficiency, relevance andsustainabilityShows impactStrengthens financial responses andaccountabilityPromotes a learning culture focusedon service improvementPromotes replication of successfulinterventions (replicability)
  36. 36. MONITORING vs EVALUATION MONITORING VS EVALUATION Monitoring EvaluationContinuous: day-to-day Periodic: important milestonesDocuments progress In-depth analysis of achievementsFocuses on inputs and outputs Focuses on outcomes and impactsAlerts managers to problems Provides managers with strategy and policy optionsSelf-assessment External analysis
  37. 37. MONITORING AND EVALUATION M&E Framework Level Description FrequencyInputs Resources that are put into the project. Lead to Continuous the achievement of the outputsOutputs Activities or services that the project is providing. Quarterly Outputs lead to outcomesOutcomes Changes in behaviors or skills as a result of the (short to medium implemented project. Outcomes are anticipated term) to lead to impactsImpacts Measurable changes e.g. creation of 3-5 years employment or improved health, in the target (long term) group and the community in general
  38. 38. MONITORING SYSTEM• In order to carry out monitoring properly, it is essential to create a system to control the flow of information• The system should ensure that they define the key information needed, collect it and disseminate to the groups of people who need it (eg the decision makers)• The system should therefore include procedures for gathering the info and for feedback
  39. 39. Four components of a monitoring systemCollection of Aggregationinformation and analysis Feedback Decision
  40. 40. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)Types of evaluation Type PurposeFormative Initial assessment of the target populations and contextual environment. Determines concept and designProcess Seeks to identify the extent to which planned activities have been achieved and assesses the quality of the activities/servicesOutcome Examines specific program outcomes and accomplishments. What changes were observed, what does it mean, and if changes are a result of the interventions?Impact Gauges the program’s overall impact and effectiveness. Aims to strengthen design and replication of effective programs and strategies
  41. 41. EVALUATION QUESTIONS• Evaluation questions are usually based on the evaluation criteria – Relevance – Effectiveness – Efficiency – Impact – Sustainability – Replicability /up scaling (if a pilot project)
  43. 43. OVERVIEW OF IMPACT ANALYSIS• The impacts of a project are positive or negative effects brought about by the project• Is there a likelihood of the overall goal, or the intended positive results being achieved by the project?• The impacts need to be assessed across a wide range of viewpoints
  45. 45. IMPACT EVALUATION• Determines if the program had the desired effects on individuals, households, and institutions, and if those effects can be attributed to the program intervention.• This requires estimating the counterfactual, what would have happened had the project never taken place.• This is done through a comparison or control group; those who do not participate in the program, i.e., ‘with’ and ‘without’ project comparisons.
  46. 46. IMPACT EVALUATION: with andwithout project comparisons
  48. 48. OVERVIEW OF CBA• Often high magnitudes of different categories of costs (including transaction costs) are incurred in projects• These costs should be quantified and compared with the potential or actual gains (benefits)• This is done in a CBA which could be conducted ex ante and ex post• With ‘with’ and ‘without’ project comparisons ones needs to calculate the incremental net benefit cash flow
  49. 49. STEPS (STRUCTURE) OF A CBA1. Define the project: – what kind of resources are being reallocated? – Who (the population) are gainers and losers over which costs and benefits are to be aggregated, what is their level of operation?2. Which project impacts/consequences are relevant or economically important, while considering3. Identifying positive and negative impacts/consequences – Include also unpriced impacts or externalities – Exclude transfer payments effects- changes of indirect taxes, additional unemployment benefits becoming payable, etc. These are merely redistributed in the government system – Determine the physical amounts of the impacts and when in time they occur
  50. 50. STEPS OF A CBA (CONT’D)4. Monetary valuation of economic benefits and economic costs – Predict prices for cash flows extending into the future. A real rate of discount should be used – Correct market prices where necessary. Shadow prices may be used to reflect true resources scarcity. Consider: imperfect competition, government intervention in the market, and the likelihood of absence of markets – Calculate prices (relative values in common units) where none exists5. Apply the decision criteria
  51. 51. 5. Apply the decision criteria (cont’d)NPV>0; B/C>1; largest IRR above cut-off rate (many projects can give multiple IRRs from the same data set and cannot decide among many projects)Income redistribution issues are not considered. This needs political processes
  52. 52. STEPS OF A CBA (cont’d)6. Conduct sensitivity analysis – Mainly due to uncertainty: adjust the predictions and assumptions made