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Overview of the 2017 2018 annual trends and outlook report (ATOR)

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Fleur Wouterse and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
International Food Policy Research Institute

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Overview of the 2017 2018 annual trends and outlook report (ATOR)

  1. 1. The 2017-2018 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) An Overview Fleur Wouterse and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse International Food Policy Research Institute
  2. 2. Objectives  the 2017–2018 ATOR takes an in-depth look at social protection in rural Africa:  summarizes the available evidence on successful implementation of SPPs;  helps fill knowledge gaps related to enhancing the role of social protection in reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience of rural households (the Malabo Declaration, the African Union’s Agenda 2063).  highlights policy implications to guide the design and roll-out of national social protection programs for rural Africa.  the 2017–2018 ATOR reviews progress on CAADP indicators outlined in the CAADP Results Framework 2015–2025 and the CAADP implementation process (Plenary Session VI)
  3. 3. Realization and commitment growing …  Widespread realization of the need for and the potential benefits of social protection;  Four pathways linking social protection and agricultural development and, more broadly, economic growth. SPPs: o protect household assets in case of shocks; o create individual, household, and community assets; o help households cope with risk and enable households to use their existing resources more effectively; o reduce inequality;  Caveats o create disincentive effects; o overly costly;
  4. 4. Realization and commitment growing …  Widespread realization of the need for and the potential benefits of social protection;  Continent-wide: the 2014 Malabo Declaration, African leaders committed to end hunger on the continent by 2025 – integrate social protection with measures to increase agricultural productivity (CAADP);  Country level efforts: o Initiatives in multiple domains – food assistance, cash transfers, pension schemes, school feeding, … o institutionalize systems of assistance; 1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012 Annual Average per capita level (in 2005 USD) 12.9 28.9 49.3 Share in total government expenditure (%) 5.2 6.4 12.5 Government Expenditure on Social Protection in Africa– levels and shares
  5. 5. Social protection works …  Impacts (chapters 4-8):  smooth consumption/protect assets, reduce food insecurity (increase nutrient availability);  can generate economy-wide (local through to national) productivity and income growth through multiplier effects;  disincentive effects do not appear significant (labor supply, private transfers, local prices)  Synergies with agriculture (chapters 2-3):  SP programs enhance human capital and risk-management capacity; increase productivity; move from subsistence to resilient livelihoods.
  6. 6. Appropriate design and robust evaluation vital …  Design (chapters 8-11)  Targeting: o difficult – the poor are heterogenous (characteristics, location, context) o categorical targeting, geographic targeting, proxy means tests, self-selection, community-based targeting (CBT); o benefits the poor, though effectiveness varies  Other key aspects o the choice of payment modality, and graduation;  Evaluation and learning  what works is not always clear – document progress;  evaluate, learn, improve – experimentation can be valuable;
  7. 7. Scale-up and Sustainability major challenges …  Scale-up  Large programs are uncommon (except SA, Ethiopia);  Scale-up necessary to enlarge benefits, cater for demand;  Sustainability (Chapter 8)  Effectiveness – costs and long–term impact varies with program type (Livelihood, Cash Transfer, and Graduation Approaches);  Funding – switch from external to domestic funding;  A sustainable multi-objective social protection program requires:  an effective institutional architecture that can mobilize resources and expertise, design an equitable and efficient targeting system, efficient coordination among stakeholders, and ;  continuous quantitative and qualitative empirical assessment to generate evidence for learning and to improve the design of subsequent phases;
  8. 8. Thank you

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