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World Buses to 2016


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World Buses to 2016

  1. 1. World Buses to 2016Report Details:Published:December 2012No. of Pages: 379Price: Single User License – US$6100This study analyzes the global bus market. It presents historical demand data for the years 2001,2006 and 2011, and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by bus type (e.g., transit buses, motor coaches),world regional market and major national market. The study also considers market environmentfactors, details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles industryparticipants.World demand to rise 5% annually through 2016The world market for buses is projected to climb 5.0 percent annually to 631,000 units in 2016.Product sales will expand at an even faster pace in dollar terms, rising 6.2 percent per yearthrough 2016 to $61.5 billion due to increases in average bus prices. Demand will bespurred by efforts to reduce air pollution and traffic congestion in metropolitan areas as urbanpopulations continue to grow, by volatile fuel costs making public transportation more attractive,and by the ongoing development of public transportation infrastructures, including bus rapid transitsystems, in a number of developing countries. An upturn in bus spending in developed nationssuch as France, Japan, and the US will also contribute to overall sales advances, as tax revenuesclimb along with GDP and provide government agencies with the funds needed to both replaceolder vehicles and expand current fleets. In addition, higher disposable income levels will allowmore tourists to travel via motor coach to vacation venues.Asia/Pacific region to see strongest growth in demandIn a continuation of recent trends, the Asia/Pacific region is forecast to register the strongestmarket advances through 2016, fueled by robust economic growth and the expansion of urbantransit systems, particularly in China and India. China alone will account for three-fifths of all newbus demand globally between 2011 and 2016. The Africa/Mideast region will post the secondfastest gains, supported by further development of public transportation infrastructures, mostnotably in Nigeria, where bus demand will expand 14 percent annually through 2016 from arelatively small current base, the fastest rate of growth of any major market in the world. NorthAmerica will record the next strongest market advances, followed by Eastern Europe and WesternEurope. Bus sales in all of these regions will be spurred by generally healthy economic conditions,increased urbanization, and an upturn in government spending. In Central and South America, onthe other hand, bus demand is expected to decline modestly between 2011 and 2016. This will bedue to a drop in bus sales in Brazil from an unusually high level in 2011, when vehicle prebuys inadvance of new emissions standards that went into effect in 2012 caused demand to surge.
  2. 2. Type C school buses to be fastest growing productThe market for Type C school buses is projected to expand at the strongest pace of any majorproduct type through 2016. Demand will be driven largely by increased sales in China, where TypeC bus sales will expand rapidly from a small existing base because of safety concerns with othertypes of buses currently used to transport students. Transit bus demand will climb at the nextfastest rate, stimulated by growth in urban populations and by efforts toreduce traffic congestion and improve air quality. The market for motor coaches, which accountsfor the largest portion of world bus sales, will increase at a somewhat slower pace, bolstered byrising per capita incomes and vacation travel spending. Demand for all other buses, which includeshuttles and other smaller vehicles based on a medium-duty chassis, will expand at the slowestrate, although gains will be roughly the same as those registered from 2006 to 2011, driven by apickup in tourism and travel spending.COMPANY PROFILESProfiles 37 global players such as Ashok Leyland,Daimler, MAN, Marcopolo, Tata Motor, Volvo,Xiamen King Long Motor, and Zhengzhou yutong BusAdditional InformationThis comprehensive study analyzes global supply of and demand for buses. The products coveredby this report are:•Motor coaches, which are used to transport passengers between cities or regions, and tend to be uniquely designed with comfortable seats and large luggage storage space at wheel level•Transit buses, which are designed to efficiently move passengers within metropolitan areas and are also used in other applications•Type C school buses, also known as “conventional” school buses, which are designed to carry more than 10 people and have the engine in front of the windshield and entrance door behind the front wheels•All other buses, which tend to be smaller vehicles, often based on medium-duty truck chassis, used in special applications like airport, hospital, hotel, and senior citizen transport, and as support vehicles for schools (Type A and stripped chassis Type B school buses)This study excludes most buses derived from light vehicles and minibuses designed to carry eightor fewer passengers (in addition to the driver), vehicles that are quite popular in China andelsewhere in the Asia/Pacific region.Historical data for 2001, 2006, and 2011 and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 are provided fordemand by product type, total production, and net exports and sales from inventory of new buseson a country-by-country basis in units. Also provided is the total number of buses in use (the buspark or stock) and, at the world level, total bus demand in millions of current US dollars, includinginflation. The term “demand” actually refers to “apparent consumption” and is defined asproduction (used interchangeably with the terms “shipments,” “output,” and “supply”) from the busmanufacturing facilities located in a country plus imports to that country minus exports. It is alsoreferred to as “market,” “sales,” and “consumption.”In addition, major bus manufacturers worldwide are identified and profiled, and key competitivevariables are discussed. This report is framed within the world bus industry’s economic, market,and technological environments, and emphasizes technological and legislative variables shaping
  3. 3. bus supply and demand patterns, such as the increasing popularity of “green” technologiesbecause of efforts to reduce pollution and reliance on fossil fuels.Throughout this study, various indicators are related to demand for comparative purposes and toassist further analysis. Variations in this type of international reporting are common, and datapresented in this study are historically consistent but may differ from other sources. Definitionaldifferences, inventory accumulation, goods-in-transit, and undistributed exports might cause thesevariances. In order to minimize the impact of such discrepancies, total world bus imports andexports have been assumed to balance in any given year. Due to independent rounding, tabulardetails may not add to totals. Ratios are rounded to the nearest significant digit. All dollar valuescited for the industry are at the basic manufacturers’ level.Get your copy of this report @ points covered in Table of Contents of this report includeTABLE OF CONTENTSINTRODUCTION xiI. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT 4General 4World Economic Overview 5Recent Historical Trends 5World Economic Outlook 7Personal Income Trends 11World Demographic Overview 13Population 14Urban Population 15World Light Vehicle Overview 17Light Vehicle Production 18Light Vehicle Sales 20Energy Prices 22Technology Trends 26Legal & Regulatory Environment 28Pricing Trends 32III. WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND 35General 35Regional Overview 36Demand 37Park 42Production 44International Trade 47Demand by Product 48
  4. 4. Motor Coaches 51Transit Buses 53Other Buses 56Demand by Fuel Type 60Bus Rapid Transit Systems 63IV. NORTH AMERICA 66General 66Bus Supply & Demand 67Bus Market Outlook 70United States 72Canada 78Mexico 83V. WESTERN EUROPE 89General 89Bus Supply & Demand 90Bus Market Outlook 93France 95Germany 100United Kingdom 105Spain 110Italy 115Other Western Europe 120Sweden 126Belgium 127All Other 128VI. ASIA/PACIFIC 130General 130Bus Supply & Demand 131Bus Market Outlook 134China 136India 143Indonesia 148Japan 153Thailand 159South Korea 164Other Asia/Pacific 170Australia 176Taiwan 178All Other 179VII. OTHER REGIONS 180Central & South America 180Bus Supply & Demand 181
  5. 5. Bus Market Outlook 183Brazil 185Other Central & South America 191Eastern Europe 196Bus Supply & Demand 198Bus Market Outlook 200Russia 202Other Eastern Europe 208Poland 214Czech Republic 215All Other 216Africa/Mideast 217Bus Supply & Demand 219Bus Market Outlook 221Turkey 224Iran 229Nigeria 234Other Africa/Mideast 240VIII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 248General 248Industry Composition 249Market Share 251Research & Product Development 255Manufacturing 257Marketing & Distribution 259Cooperative Agreements 261Financial Issues & Requirements 269Mergers & Acquisitions 269Company Profiles 272Advanced Public Transport Systems, see VDL GroepAlexander Dennis Limited 273Allied Specialty Vehicles Incorporated 276Anhui Ankai Automobile Company Limited 277Ashok Leyland Limited 279Berkshire Hathaway Incorporated 281Blue Bird Corporation 283Champion Bus, see Thor IndustriesCollins Bus, see Allied Specialty VehiclesConsorcio G Grupo Dina SA de CV 285Daewoo Bus Corporation 286Daimler AG 288Detroit Diesel, see Daimler
  6. 6. Dina Camiones, see Consorcio G Grupo DinaDongfeng Motor Corporation Company Limited 294Eicher Motors Limited 295ElDorado National California, see Thor IndustriesElkhart Coach, see Berkshire HathawayEvoBus, see DaimlerFederal Coach Bus, see Berkshire HathawayFiat Industrial SpA 296Fiat SpA 298Forest River, see Berkshire HathawayGAZ OAO 299General Motors Company 300Gillig LLC 302Glaval Bus, see Berkshire HathawayGoshen Coach, see Thor IndustriesHaci Ömer Sabanci Holding A 303Hino Motors, see Toyota MotorHyundai Motor Company 305IC Bus, see Navistar InternationalIrizar S Cooperativa 307IRIZAR-TVS, see Ashok Leyland and Irizar SCooperativaIveco Irisbus, see Fiat IndustrialLiaoning SG Automotive Group Company Limited 309Mahindra Navistar Engines Private, see NavistarInternationalMAN SE 310Marcopolo SA 313Micro Bird, see Blue BirdMinsky Avtomobilny Zavod JSC 316Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus, see DaimlerMotor Coach Industries Incorporated 317Navistar International Corporation 318NEOPLAN Bus, see MANNew Flyer Industries Incorporated 322North American Bus Industries Incorporated 324Nova Bus, see VolvoOptare, see Ashok LeylandPolomex, see Daimler and MarcopoloPrevost Car, see VolvoProterra Incorporated 326Scania AB 328
  7. 7. Solaris Bus & Coach SA 331Starcraft Bus, see Berkshire HathawaySuperpolo, see MarcopoloTata Marcopolo Motors, see Marcopolo and Tata MotorsTata Motors Limited 333Temsa Sanayi ve Ticaret, see Haci Ömer Sabanci HoldingAThomas Built Buses, see DaimlerThor Industries Incorporated 335Toyota Motor Corporation 337UD Trucks, see VolvoVan Hool NV 341VDL Groep BV 342VE Commercial Vehicles, see VolvoVolgren Australia, see MarcopoloVolvo AB 345Workhorse Custom Chassis, see Navistar InternationalWright Group Limited 349Xiamen King Long Motor Company Limited 350Yangzhou Yaxing Motor Coach Company Limited 352Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Company Limited 353Zhongtong Bus Holding Company Limited 355Zonda Group 356Other Companies Mentioned in Study 357LIST OF TABLESSECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARYSummary Table 3SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 112 World Per Capita GDP 133 World Population by Region & Age 154 World Urban Population by Region 175 World Light Vehicle Production by Region 206 World Light Vehicle Sales by Region 22SECTION III -- WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND1 World Bus Demand by Region 392 World Buses in Use by Region 433 World Bus Production by Region 464 World Bus Net Exports 485 World Bus Demand by Product 506 World Motor Coach Demand by Region 537 World Transit Bus Demand by Region 56
  8. 8. 8 World Demand for Other Buses by Product & Region 599 World Bus Demand by Fuel Type 62SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA1 North America: Bus Supply & Demand 692 North America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product& Fuel Type 723 United States: Bus Supply & Demand 764 United States: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 785 Canada: Bus Supply & Demand 816 Canada: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 837 Mexico: Bus Supply & Demand 868 Mexico: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 88SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE1 Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 922 Western Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product& Fuel Type 953 France: Bus Supply & Demand 984 France: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 1005 Germany: Bus Supply & Demand 1036 Germany: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 1057 United Kingdom: Bus Supply & Demand 1088 United Kingdom: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 1109 Spain: Bus Supply & Demand 11310 Spain: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 11511 Italy: Bus Supply & Demand 11812 Italy: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 12013 Other Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 12314 Other Western Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demandby Product 12515 Other Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand by Country 126SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC1 Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand 1332 Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product& Fuel Type 1363 China: Bus Supply & Demand 1414 China: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 1435 India: Bus Supply & Demand 1466 India: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 1487 Indonesia: Bus Supply & Demand 1518 Indonesia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 1539 Japan: Bus Supply & Demand 15710 Japan: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 159
  9. 9. 11 Thailand: Bus Supply & Demand 16212 Thailand: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 16413 South Korea: Bus Supply & Demand 16814 South Korea: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 16915 Other Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand 17316 Other Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 17517 Other Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand by Country 176SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS1 Central & South America: Bus Supply & Demand 1832 Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus Demandby Product & Fuel Type 1853 Brazil: Bus Supply & Demand 1894 Brazil: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 1915 Other Central & South America: Bus Supply & Demand 1946 Other Central & South America: Buses in Use & BusDemand by Product 1967 Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 1998 Eastern Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product& Fuel Type 2029 Russia: Bus Supply & Demand 20610 Russia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 20811 Other Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Demand 21112 Other Eastern Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demandby Product 21313 Other Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Bus Demandby Country 21414 Africa/Mideast: Bus Supply & Demand 22015 Africa/Mideast: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product& Fuel Type 22316 Turkey: Bus Supply & Demand 22717 Turkey: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 22918 Iran: Bus Supply & Demand 23219 Iran: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 23420 Nigeria: Bus Supply & Demand 23821 Nigeria: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product 24022 Other Africa/Mideast: Bus Supply & Demand 24523 Other Africa/Mideast: Buses in Use & Bus Demandby Product 247SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE1 Bus Sales for Selected Manufacturers, 2011 2502 Selected Cooperative Agreements 2643 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 271
  10. 10. LIST OF CHARTSSECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT1 Average Annual Spot Prices for Crude Oil, 2001-2011 242 Average Annual Spot Prices for Natural Gas, 2001-2011 253 World Average Bus Prices, 2001-2021 34SECTION III -- WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND1 World Bus Demand by Region, 2011 402 Change in Bus Demand Between 2011 & 2016 by Region 403 World Bus Demand: Projected 2011-2016 Annual Rateof Growth 414 World Buses in Use by Region, 2011 445 World Bus Production by Region, 2011 466 World Bus Demand by Product, 2011 507 Change in Bus Demand by Product, 2006 to 2011& 2011 to 2016 518 World Bus Demand by Fuel Type, 2011 639 World Bus Rapid Transit Systems by Region, 2012 65SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA1 North America: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 70SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE1 Western Europe: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 93SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC1 Asia/Pacific: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 134SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS1 Eastern Europe: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 2002 Africa/Mideast: Bus Demand by Country, 2011 221SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE1 World Bus Market Share, 2011 252Contact: for more information.