UK Plastic Cards: Market Sizing and Forecasting


Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

UK Plastic Cards: Market Sizing and Forecasting

  1. 1. UK Plastic Cards: Market Sizing and ForecastingReport Details:Published:September 2012No. of Pages: 42Price: Single User License – US$4495Despite the UK economy re-entering recession, the payment card market has continued toperform relatively well. This has been primarily driven by consumer preference for debit cardpayments. With the huge write-offs of 2009 and 2010 behind it, the credit card market in H1 2012is also registering its first overall growth figures since before the economic crisis began.Features and benefits•Includes detailed analysis of macro-economic indicators and how these factors will affect the card market in 2013.•Providing the latest data, the report focuses on key metrics such as card transaction values, balances, and card numbers.•By using the latest available market data the report offers in-depth analysis of likely forecast scenarios.Highlights2011 saw the UK credit card market recover much of the ground lost in previous years. Going into2012 credit card numbers are increasing for the first time since well before the crisis, andopportunities for growth are slowly emerging. Consumer behaviour has changed significantlyhowever, and issuers will need to adapt to fight off new threats.Recent economic circumstances have exacerbated long-term cards trends. Debit transactionvalues are growing much faster than credit, which have remained relatively flat. Whereas debitcard transaction values have grown year-on-year, credit cards have alternated between shrinkageand growth.2011 saw credit card write-offs, outstanding balances, and insolvencies all decline significantly.This has reduced the risks for credit card issuers, but sustained high unemployment will continueto restrict growth opportunities.Your key questions answered•How is the UK recovering from recession? How has the cards market changed as a result?•What is driving card growth in 2013?•How have card balances, write-offs, and transaction values changed over the crisis?•What impact will pay day loan companies have upon credit card issuers?
  2. 2. Get your copy of this report @ points covered in Table of Contents of this report includeTable of ContentsOVERVIEWCatalystSummaryTHE UK CREDIT CARD MARKET: THE WORST IS OVER BUT TROUBLE REMAINSThe worst may be over but challenges to revenue remainUnemployment is high but relatively stableThe financial crisis has exaggerated the underlying trend of declining balances outstandingPersonal insolvencies have been steadily declining from the record highs of Q1 2010The credit card market has been dented by the crisisOverdraft borrowing is in decline, as consumers are paying off their outstanding overdraftbalancesCredit card numbers are showing the first signs of recoveryConsumer behavior has changed significantly since 2009The total value of credit card transactions has returned to growthCredit cards are being used more frequently again, but consumers are spending less on eachtransactionConsumers are shifting away from ATM cash withdrawalsThings can only get better? Consumer expectations have dropped as economic recovery remainselusiveDebit cards pose a significant challenge to credit, dominating overall card useDATAMONITOR FORECASTS A RECOVERY IN THE CREDIT CARD MARKET INTO 2013The credit card market will see overall growth in 2012 and 2013The value of credit card transactions will grow in 2012, reaching £126.6bnPOS credit card transactions will grow by 3.3% in 2012 and a further 4.1% in 2013ATM credit card withdrawals will continue to decline, but at a slower rateMarket indicators suggest that 2012–13 will see growthDebit cards will continue to grow in popularityISSUERS NEED TO ADAPT IN ORDER TO SUCCEED IN THE NEW CREDIT MARKETThe market has stabilized, but external risks continue to pose a threatIssuers will need to adapt in order to boost revenue streamsConsumers continue to reduce the level of personal debtIncreased transparency could boost the public image of credit cardsIssuers now need to focus on securing growthIncreasing card usage must be a priority for issuersTHE RISING THREAT OF PAY DAY LOAN COMPANIESOverviewWonga is winning the PR battleHowever, pay day loan companies are not a complete success story
  3. 3. APPENDIXSupplementary dataInsolvencies, card write-offs, and unemploymentDatamonitor’s forecast for the credit card market under a neutral scenarioDatamonitor’s forecast for the credit card market under an optimistic scenarioDatamonitor’s forecast for the credit card market under a pessimistic scenarioDatamonitor’s forecast for the debit card market under a neutral scenarioDefinitions(Untitled sub-section)MethodologyCards and payments databaseForecasting methodologyFurther readingAsk the analystDisclaimerList of TablesTable: Historic and forecast credit card market under a neutral scenarioTable: Historic and forecast market drivers under neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios,2007–13fTable: Historic and forecast debit card market under a neutral scenarioTable: Insolvencies, credit card write-offs, and unemployment, 2007–12Table: Year-on-year growth in, insolvencies, card write-offs and unemploymentTable: Neutral scenario for the historic and forecast credit card market, 2010–13fTable: Optimistic scenario for the historic and forecast credit card market, 2010–13fTable: Pessimistic scenario for the historic and forecast credit card market, 2010–13fTable: Neutral scenario for the historic and forecast debit card market, 2010–13fList of FiguresFigure: Unemployment in July 2012 was lowest in the south of the UKFigure: Card write-offs are now firmly in decline, having spiked in both 2009 and 2010Figure: Credit card write-offs have declined to their lowest level since Q2 2005, at £568mFigure: Balances outstanding have declined by 12.9% since December 2009Figure: Personal insolvencies remain high, but are steadily decliningFigure: Personal insolvencies remain highest in the North East of EnglandFigure: The value of transactions has been recovering, while balances continue to declineFigure: Overdraft borrowing has declined significantly since September 2011Figure: The number of cards in issue is starting to recoverFigure: Transaction values have increased from a year previously, but not across every monthFigure: Credit cards are being used more frequently, but the average transaction value hasdroppedFigure: The rate of growth in ATM transactions has been declining over the long termFigure: Consumers are becoming more pessimistic about the futureFigure: The gulf between credit and debit continues to grow
  4. 4. Figure: The value of credit card purchases will continue to increase into 2013Figure: POS credit card transactions will reach £128.3bn in 2013Figure: Credit card ATM withdrawals will continue to decline but more graduallyFigure: Under all scenarios the credit card market will continue to decline in 2010Figure: Debit use at the POS is forecast to grow rapidlyFigure: Wonga’s upfront approach has proven to be popular with consumersContact: for more information.