EQUITY RESEARCHJuly 14, 2005                                                                                              ...
EQUITY RESEARCH•                                                                  We are seeing signs that option market p...
EQUITY RESEARCH•   From a fundamental perspective, GOOG is likely to post strong Q2 numbers on the heels of continued secu...
EQUITY RESEARCH•         A potential risk to implementing a buy-write strategy versus a long-only position in GOOG shares ...
EQUITY RESEARCHOptions are not suitable for all investors and the risks of option trading should be weighed against the po...
EQUITY RESEARCHImportant Disclosures  Rating and Price Target Chart: GOOG                                                 ...
EQUITY RESEARCHImportant Disclosures:The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based u...
EQUITY RESEARCHThis material has been prepared and/or issued by Lehman Brothers Inc., member SIPC, and/or one of its affil...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Google Buy-Write / Overwrite Makes Sense: Downloading Premium

285 views

Published on

Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
285
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Google Buy-Write / Overwrite Makes Sense: Downloading Premium

  1. 1. EQUITY RESEARCHJuly 14, 2005 North America Investment Strategy & MacroEquity Derivatives Strategy Equity Derivatives StrategyMarket CommentaryStrategy Ryan Renicker 1.212.526.9425GOOG Buy-Write: Downloading Premium rrenicke@lehman.comSector View:New: 0-Not RatedOld: 0-Not RatedInvestment conclusion We are seeing signs that option market participants are pricing in a relatively high degree of uncertainty for Google (GOOG) shares heading into Q2 earnings (July 21), as measured by Google implied volatility levels. Specifically, Google 2-month implied volatilities are currently trading relatively high 1) on an absolute basis 2) versus realized and 3) versus the Nasdaq 100. From a fundamental perspective, GOOG is likely to post strong 2Q numbers on the heels of continued secular growth in search, international expansion and further gains in monetization, according to Lehman Internet & Media analyst Douglas Anmuth. We believe investors should consider implementing a August 320 “buy-write” strategy on GOOG shares heading into GOOG’s July 21 earnings release. This short-term strategy allows investors to maintain a bullish stance on GOOG shares into earnings, while partially protecting against a downside move in the stock. The buy-write makes money as long as GOOG trades above $289.46 as of the August 20th expiration date and outperforms a long-only position in GOOG shares if GOOG trades at or below $329.40 at expiration. If GOOG trades at $329.40 on expiry, both the buy-write strategy and the long-only position would result in call-away or holding-period return of about 10.25%. Figure 1: GOOG 2-Month Implied Volatility (Rolling Basis, Year to Date) 50% GOOG 2-Month Implied Volatility 48% 46% 44% p d o tility 42% 2 o thIm lie V la 40% 38% -M n 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 1 3 5 1 8 5 1 3 5 1 8 5 1 3 5 1 8 5 2 2 5 2 7 5 2 2 5 2 7 5 2 2 5 2 7 5 3 4 5 3 9 5 3 4 5 3 9 5 3 4 5 3 9 5 4 3 5 4 8 5 4 3 5 4 8 5 4 3 5 4 8 5 5 3 5 5 8 5 5 3 5 5 8 5 5 3 5 5 8 5 6 2 5 6 7 5 6 2 5 6 7 5 6 2 5 6 7 5 7 2 5 7 7 5 7 2 5 0 /0 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /1 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /2 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /0 /0 0 /1 /0 Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Customers of Lehman Brothers in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company orcompanies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access thisindependent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-2-LEHMAN to request a copy of this research.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 5 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 6 1
  2. 2. EQUITY RESEARCH• We are seeing signs that option market participants are pricing in a relatively high degree of uncertainty for Google (GOOG) shares heading into Q2 earnings (July 21), as measured by Google implied volatility levels.• Specifically, Google 2-month implied volatilities are currently trading relatively high 1) versus where they have traded on a rolling basis during the past 2 months 2) versus GOOG 44-trading day realized volatility (daily returns, 2-month time periods, on a rolling basis) and 3) versus the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). Please see Figures 2 – 4 for each of these measures in a graphical context.Figure 2: GOOG 2-Month Implied Volatility (YTD) 50% GOOG 2-Month Implied Volatility 48% 46% 44%2-Month Implied Volatility 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 01/03/05 01/08/05 01/13/05 01/18/05 01/23/05 01/28/05 02/02/05 02/07/05 02/12/05 02/17/05 02/22/05 02/27/05 03/04/05 03/09/05 03/14/05 03/19/05 03/24/05 03/29/05 04/03/05 04/08/05 04/13/05 04/18/05 04/23/05 04/28/05 05/03/05 05/08/05 05/13/05 05/18/05 05/23/05 05/28/05 06/02/05 06/07/05 06/12/05 06/17/05 06/22/05 06/27/05 07/02/05 07/07/05 07/12/05Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.Figure 3: GOOG 2M – 44 Trading Day Realized Vol. Spread (YTD) 20% 15% Implied - Realized Spread 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 01/03/05 01/08/05 01/13/05 01/18/05 01/23/05 01/28/05 02/02/05 02/07/05 02/12/05 02/17/05 02/22/05 02/27/05 03/04/05 03/09/05 03/14/05 03/19/05 03/24/05 03/29/05 04/03/05 04/08/05 04/13/05 04/18/05 04/23/05 04/28/05 05/03/05 05/08/05 05/13/05 05/18/05 05/23/05 05/28/05 06/02/05 06/07/05 06/12/05 06/17/05 06/22/05 06/27/05 07/02/05 07/07/05 07/12/05Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.Figure 4: GOOG vs. QQQQ 2M Implied Vol. Spread (YTD) 35% 30% GOOG - QQQQ 2M Implied Vol. Spread 25% 20% 15% 10% 01/03/05 01/08/05 01/13/05 01/18/05 01/23/05 01/28/05 02/02/05 02/07/05 02/12/05 02/17/05 02/22/05 02/27/05 03/04/05 03/09/05 03/14/05 03/19/05 03/24/05 03/29/05 04/03/05 04/08/05 04/13/05 04/18/05 04/23/05 04/28/05 05/03/05 05/08/05 05/13/05 05/18/05 05/23/05 05/28/05 06/02/05 06/07/05 06/12/05 06/17/05 06/22/05 06/27/05 07/02/05 07/07/05 07/12/05Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy. 2
  3. 3. EQUITY RESEARCH• From a fundamental perspective, GOOG is likely to post strong Q2 numbers on the heels of continued secular growth in search, international expansion and further gains in monetization, according to Lehman Internet & Media analyst Douglas Anmuth. Please see Google: Raising Numbers, Raising Target (7/14/05, Doug Anmuth) for further details.• Against this fundamental backdrop, we believe investors should consider implementing a “buy-write” strategy on GOOG shares heading into GOOG’s July 21 earnings release. This short-term strategy allows investors to maintain a bullish stance on GOOG shares into earnings, while partially protecting against a downside move in the stock.• Specifically, we recommend investors simultaneously purchase GOOG shares ($298.86 last price) and write GOOG August 320 calls (~$9.40 premium) against their long GOOG position.• This strategy makes money as long as GOOG trades above $289.46 as of the August 20th expiration date and outperforms a long-only position in GOOG shares if GOOG trades at or below $329.40 at expiration.• If GOOG trades at $329.40 on expiry, both the buy-write strategy and the long-only position would result in call-away or holding-period return of about 10.25% (Figure 5).Figure 5: Payoff Diagram: GOOG Aug. 320 Buy Write vs. Stock-Only $50 Buy-Write More Profitable Than Stock-Only Strategy $40 up to GOOG Stock Price ~ $329.40 $30 Payoff at Expiration $20 Levered Upside $10 $- $(10) Buy-Write Payoff Stock-Only Payoff $(20) 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 Stock Price at ExpirySource: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy. 3
  4. 4. EQUITY RESEARCH• A potential risk to implementing a buy-write strategy versus a long-only position in GOOG shares arises if GOOG rallies above $329.40 as of the expiration date ($320 exercise price + $9.40 premium = $329.40). Under this scenario, the buy-write strategy would underperform the long-only strategy (opportunity cost above $329.40).Figure 6: GOOG Historical Stock Price vs. Approx. Buy-Write Profit Range (in Brackets) $330 ~ $30 $320 $310 Make $ $300 $290 $0 $280 GOOG (Closing Price) $270 $260 $250 $240 $230 $220 $210 $200 $190 $180 $170 01/03/05 01/09/05 01/15/05 01/21/05 01/27/05 02/02/05 02/08/05 02/14/05 02/20/05 02/26/05 03/04/05 03/10/05 03/16/05 03/22/05 03/28/05 04/03/05 04/09/05 04/15/05 04/21/05 04/27/05 05/03/05 05/09/05 05/15/05 05/21/05 05/27/05 06/02/05 06/08/05 06/14/05 06/20/05 06/26/05 07/02/05 07/08/05 07/14/05 07/20/05 07/26/05 08/01/05 08/07/05 08/13/05 08/19/05Source: Lehman Brothers Equity Derivatives Strategy.• GOOG is up about 55% during the past 3 months. 4
  5. 5. EQUITY RESEARCHOptions are not suitable for all investors and the risks of option trading should be weighed against the potential rewards.Supporting documents that form the basis of the recommendations are available on request. Please note that the trade ideas withinthis report in no way relate to the fundamental ratings applied to European stocks by Lehman Brothers Equity Research.Analyst Certification:I, Ryan Renicker, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research Industry Note accurately reflect my personal views about any orall of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Industry Note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Industry Note. 5
  6. 6. EQUITY RESEARCHImportant Disclosures Rating and Price Target Chart: GOOG GOOGLE INC. As of 14-Jun-2005 Currency = USD 304.00 288.00 272.00 256.00 240.00 224.00 208.00 192.00 176.00 160.00 144.00 128.00 112.00 96.00 6-02 9-02 12-02 3-03 6-03 9-03 12-03 3-04 6-04 9-04 12-04 3-05 6-05 Closing Price Price Target Recommendation Change Drop Coverage Source: FactSet Date Closing Price Rating Price Target Date Closing Price Rating Price Target 22-Apr-05 215.81 275.00 26-Jan-05 189.24 190.00 05-Apr-05 188.57 1-Overweight 06-Oct-04 137.08 120.00 02-Feb-05 205.96 230.00 06-Oct-04 137.08 2-Equal weight FOR EXPLANATION OF RATINGS REFER TO THE STOCK RATING KEYS LOCATED ON THE PAGE FOLLOWING THE LAST PRICE CHART 6
  7. 7. EQUITY RESEARCHImportant Disclosures:The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the Firm’s totalrevenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.Related Stocks: Disclosures Ticker Price (07/11) RatingGoogle Inc. A,C,D,J,L GOOG 291.78 1-OverweightA - Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate managed or co-managed within the past 12 months a public offering of securities for this company.C - Lehman Brothers Inc. makes a market in the securities of this company.D - Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company within the past12 months.J - Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate trade(s) regularly in the shares of the subject company.L - The subject company is or during the past 12 months has been an investment banking client of Lehman Brothers Inc.Risk Disclosure: GOOG: Google is exposed to consumer discretionary spending and the macro economy given the companys reliance on onlineadvertising, more specifically sponsored search. Additionally, the loss of a large affiliate, including AOL and Ask Jeeves, could have amaterial impact on Googles business.Guide to Lehman Brothers Equity Research Rating System:Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2- Equal weight or 3-Underweight (seedefinitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry sector(the “sector coverage universe”). To see a list of the companies that comprise a particular sector coverage universe, please go towww.lehman.com/disclosuresIn addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or3-Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system.Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.Stock Rating1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-monthinvestment horizon.2-Equal weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a12- month investment horizon.3-Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.RS-Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firmpolicies in certain circumstances including when Lehman Brothers is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transactioninvolving the company.Sector View1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.Stock Ratings From February 2001 to August 5, 2002 (sector view did not exist):This is a guide to expected total return (price performance plus dividend) relative to the total return of the stocks’ local market (i.e. the marketwhere the stock primarily trades) over the next 12 months.1-Strong Buy - expected to outperform the market by 15 or more percentage points.2-Buy - expected to outperform the market by 5-15 percentage points.3-Market Perform - expected to perform in line with the market, plus or minus 5 percentage points.4-Market Underperform - expected to underperform the market by 5-15 percentage points.5-Sell - expected to underperform the market by 15 or more percentage points.Distribution of Ratings:Lehman Brothers Global Equity Research has 1712 companies under coverage.40% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Buy rating, 33% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.42% have been assigned a 2-Equal weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Hold rating, 7% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.18% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as Sell rating, 84% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm. 7
  8. 8. EQUITY RESEARCHThis material has been prepared and/or issued by Lehman Brothers Inc., member SIPC, and/or one of its affiliates (“Lehman Brothers”) and has beenapproved by Lehman Brothers International (Europe), authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, in connection with its distribution in theEuropean Economic Area. This material is distributed in Japan by Lehman Brothers Japan Inc., and in Hong Kong by Lehman Brothers Asia Limited. Thismaterial is distributed in Australia by Lehman Brothers Australia Pty Limited, and in Singapore by Lehman Brothers Inc., Singapore Branch. This material isdistributed in Korea by Lehman Brothers International (Europe) Seoul Branch. This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regardedas an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned in it. No part of this document may be reproduced in anymanner without the written permission of Lehman Brothers. With the exception of disclosures relating to Lehman Brothers, this research report is based oncurrent public information that Lehman Brothers considers reliable, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied onas such. In the case of any disclosure to the effect that Lehman Brothers Inc. or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equitysecurities of the subject company, the computation of beneficial ownership of securities is based upon the methodology used to compute ownership underSection 13(d) of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In the case of any disclosure to the effect that Lehman Brothers Inc. and/or its affiliateshold a short position of at least 1% of the outstanding share capital of a particular company, such disclosure relates solely to the ordinary share capital of thecompany. Accordingly, while such calculation represents Lehman Brothers’ holdings net of any long position in the ordinary share capital of the company, suchcalculation excludes any rights or obligations that Lehman Brothers may otherwise have, or which may accrue in the future, with respect to such ordinary sharecapital. Similarly such calculation does not include any shares held or owned by Lehman Brothers where such shares are held under a wider agreement orarrangement (be it with a client or a counterparty) concerning the shares of such company (e.g. prime broking and/or stock lending activity). Any suchdisclosure represents the position of Lehman Brothers as of the last business day of the calendar month preceding the date of this report.This material is provided with the understanding that Lehman Brothers is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. Opinions expressed herein reflect the opinion ofLehman Brothers and are subject to change without notice. The products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries,and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. If an investor has any doubts about product suitability, he should consult his Lehman Brothersrepresentative. The value of and the income produced by products may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than he invested. Value and incomemay be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. If a product isincome producing, part of the capital invested may be used to pay that income. © 2005 Lehman Brothers. All rights reserved. Additional information isavailable on request. Please contact a Lehman Brothers entity in your home jurisdiction.Lehman Brothers policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection with investment research is available at www.lehman.com/researchconflictspolicy.Ratings, earnings per share forecasts and price targets contained in the Firms equity research reports covering U.S. companies are available atwww.lehman.com/disclosures.Complete disclosure information on companies covered by Lehman Brothers Equity Research is available at www.lehman.com/disclosures. 8

×