Project Performance, Feedback Loops, Risks, and System Dynamics

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Jay Forrester of MIT is recognized as the father of System Dynamics a body of knowledge founded on system theory in understanding the counter intuitive behavior of systems.The author in this presentation develops a methodology for managing project risks using system dynamics.

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Project Performance, Feedback Loops, Risks, and System Dynamics

  1. 1. SYSTEM DYNAMICS A POWERFUL TOOL FOR INFLUENCING PROJECT DYNAMICS PRESENTED AT THE PMI CON2005 NEW DELHI, 11TH November 2005, New Frontiers in Project Management By Himadri Banerji Reliance Energy. 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 1 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS • EVENTS HAPPEN AS A CONSEQUENCE OF PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR OF A SYSTEM • BEHAVIOUR OVER TIME (DYNAMICS) IS OFTEN COUNTER INTUTIVE AND A RESULT OF • STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE INTERCONNECTED INFLUENCES AND FEEDBACKS 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 2 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  3. 3. EVENT…BEHAVIOUR… STRUCTURE… 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  4. 4. EXAMPLES OF BEHAVIOUR SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 4 11/7/2005
  5. 5. EVENT…BEHAVIOUR… STRUCTURE… 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 5 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  6. 6. THE BASIC ELEMENT OF STRUCTURE IS FEEDBACK LOOP SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 6 11/7/2005
  7. 7. FEEDBACK LOOPS IN STRUCTURES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER GIVING PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 7 11/7/2005
  8. 8. EVENT…BEHAVIOUR… STRUCTURE… SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 8 11/7/2005
  9. 9. TYPICAL MAIN ELEMENTS IN FEEDBACK LOOPS AND BEHAVIOUR SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 9 11/7/2005
  10. 10. INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS SYSTEM DYNAMICS IS THE STUDY OF • PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR • ARISING OUT OF THE INFLUENCE • OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF VARIOUS ELEMENTS COMPRISING SYSTEM STRUCTURES • THROUGH MODELLING AND SIMULATION. 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 10 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  11. 11. INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS SYSTEM DYNAMICS HELPS IN • DESIGNING THE INTERCONNECTIONS AND THE STRUCTURE • TO GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTABILITY IN BEHAVIOUR OF SYSTEMS. 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 11 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  12. 12. SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONCEPTS FOCUSES ON DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND FEEDBACK AS CAUSE OF DYNAMICS IN BEHAVIOUR EMPHASIS ON INTERNAL BEHAVIOUR AND HOW ONE HAS TO CHANGE STRUCTURE. A MODEL IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 12 11/7/2005
  13. 13. SYSTEM DYNAMICS TOOLS SOFT TOOLS HARD TOOLS BEHAVIOUR OVER COMPUTER TIME GRAPHS MODELLING CAUSAL- LOOP COMPUTER DIAGRAMMING SIMULATION SYSTEM ARCHETYPES CALIBRATION TO DATA MENTAL SIMULATION SENSITIVITY WHAT IF ANALYSIS SYSTEM THINKING SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 13 11/7/2005
  14. 14. SYSTEM DYNAMICS BASICS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 14 11/7/2005
  15. 15. HOW ARE SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELS CREATED SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 15 11/7/2005
  16. 16. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 16 11/7/2005
  17. 17. LINK AND LOOP POLARITY BASIC CONCEPTS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 17 11/7/2005
  18. 18. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 18 11/7/2005
  19. 19. COMPUTER SIMULATION EQUATIONS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 19 11/7/2005
  20. 20. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 20 11/7/2005
  21. 21. REINFORCING LOOP COMPLICATING CONTROL RESPONSE SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 21 11/7/2005
  22. 22. DOMINANT PROJECT CONTROLLING LOOP…EXAMPLE SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 22 11/7/2005
  23. 23. FURTHER COMPLEXITY SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 23 11/7/2005
  24. 24. SYSTEM THINKING AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT TRADITIONAL APPROACHES VS SYSTEMS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 24 11/7/2005
  25. 25. DYNAMICS ??? 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 25 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  26. 26. TRADITIONAL APPROACHES…PROJECT ANALYSIS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 26 11/7/2005
  27. 27. DYNAMICS ??? 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 27 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  28. 28. BENEFITS OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 28 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  29. 29. SYSTEM DYNAMICS SAVES HALF OF THE ORIGINAL TIME FOR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 29 11/7/2005
  30. 30. TRADITIONAL APPROACHES FAIL TO CONSIDER SOFT FACTORS…FOR EXAMPLE REWORK SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 30 11/7/2005
  31. 31. OR UNDISCOVERED REWORK… SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 31 11/7/2005
  32. 32. SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL STOCKS AND FLOWS, CONSTANTS, AUXILIARIES(COMPONETS FOR RATES) AND EXTERNAL VARIABLES SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 32 11/7/2005
  33. 33. FEEDBACKS…OTHER SOFT FACTORS IGNORED IN TRADITIONAL APPROACHES SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 33 11/7/2005
  34. 34. DESIGN OVERLAP..FEEDBACK SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 34 11/7/2005
  35. 35. CONSTRUCTION OVERLAPS..FEEDBACK SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 35 11/7/2005
  36. 36. FEEDBACK LOOPS CAUSING PROJECT DYNAMICS…. IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVITY/QUALITY SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 36 11/7/2005
  37. 37. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 37 11/7/2005
  38. 38. BEHAVIOUR OF DESIGN PROCESS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 38 11/7/2005
  39. 39. UNDISCOVERED REWORK SHOWS UP AS REVISIONS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 39 11/7/2005
  40. 40. STAFFING EXPERIENCES…….FROM PROJECTS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 40 11/7/2005
  41. 41. CAUSED BY SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 41 11/7/2005
  42. 42. STAFFING EXPERIENCES..ACTUAL PROJECT 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 42 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  43. 43. AGAIN CAUSED BY NEED TO EXECUTE REWORK 11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 43 PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  44. 44. PRODUCTIVITY AND QUALITY VARY OVER TIME SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 44 11/7/2005
  45. 45. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 45 11/7/2005
  46. 46. SYSTEM DYNAMICS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 46 11/7/2005
  47. 47. WORSENING FACTORS SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 47 11/7/2005
  48. 48. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 48 11/7/2005
  49. 49. CONCLUSION….INDUSTRY EXPERIENCES SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 49 11/7/2005
  50. 50. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS MIT OPEN COURSE STUDY IN SYSTEM DYNAMICS A free and open educational resource for faculty, students, and self-learners around the world. OCW supports MIT's mission to advance knowledge and education, and serve the world in the 21st century. It is true to MIT's values of excellence, innovation, and leadership. http://ocw.mit.edu SYSTEM DYNAMICS SOCIETY : www.systemdynamics.org CONCEPTS FROM THE ORIGINAL PAPER OF Dr. J.W FORRESTER PROFESSOR EMERITUS MIT FOUNDER ON “ SYSTEM DYNAMICS”: System dynamics in education project: http://sysdyn.clexchange.org PROBLEM DIAGNOSTICS AND PROJECT DYNAMICS BY NATHANIEL OSGOOD… SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT 50 11/7/2005

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