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The Fall of Digital

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"The fall of digital" as presented at Webuquerque, November 2010.

"For the past 15 years, the business, marketing and technology communities have been turned upside down with the mass adoption of the internet. Millions have been made and lost. Companies founded and companies gone broke. Business as usual has been changed forever, but the change isn't over yet.

As the realities of the new connected world take hold, the architects of that world (the web developers and digital agencies) may be the ones who pay. How are the trends of today going to affect the professionals that set the ball in motion? That's what we will talk about in The Fall of Digital."

Published in: Business
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The Fall of Digital

  1. 1. 15 years ago something changed
  2. 2. It was new
  3. 3. It was going to change business
  4. 4. It was going to change society
  5. 5. It was going to change the world
  6. 6. Internet
  7. 7. It wasn't like anything that came before it
  8. 8. It wasn't like TV
  9. 9. It wasn't like Radio
  10. 10. It wasn't like Print
  11. 11. PR people didn't know what to do with it
  12. 12. Advertising people didn't know what to do with it http://www.flickr.com/photos/finnurmalmquist/3207097477/
  13. 13. IT people & scientists almost knew what to do with it
  14. 14. So we had to have invent new professionals
  15. 15. The great equalizer
  16. 16. It would democratize everything
  17. 17. Small shops and big shops could compete equally
  18. 18. Location didn't matter anymore
  19. 19. It was going to change everything
  20. 20. The industry got hot
  21. 21. New digital firms were born
  22. 22. Popping up all over the place
  23. 23. ...trying to cut into where business was currently spending its money
  24. 24. PR Firms Ad Firms
  25. 25. Ad Firm PR Firm IT Firm + W W W + W W W + W W W
  26. 26. they hired and acquired to offer the services to clients
  27. 27. With these new capabilities they pushed it on every client http://www.flickr.com/photos/deadhorse/79236362/
  28. 28. The Media started talking about how digital firms are the wave of the future
  29. 29. Talk of "Digital" was everywhere
  30. 30. Investors bought anything with a .com in it
  31. 31. Millions were made
  32. 32. ...then the bubble burst
  33. 33. and Millions where lost
  34. 34. Everyone realized that the internet was not magic
  35. 35. it wasn't an ATM
  36. 36. Everyone knew it was a big deal they just weren't sure how anymore.
  37. 37. So what was it?
  38. 38. Depends on who you ask http://www.flickr.com/photos/pitadel/4951801589/
  39. 39. democratize media.
  40. 40. Anyone can learn how to publish online
  41. 41. Then the industry started to mature http://www.flickr.com/photos/juhansonin/4137915935/
  42. 42. We have websites now what
  43. 43. Email marketing got big
  44. 44. it got a lot of hype
  45. 45. the snake oil salesmen moved in
  46. 46. and then it became a profession
  47. 47. SEO got big
  48. 48. it got a lot of hype
  49. 49. the snake oil salesmen moved in
  50. 50. and then it became a profession
  51. 51. Affiliate marketing got big
  52. 52. it got a lot of hype
  53. 53. the snake oil salesmen moved in
  54. 54. and then it became a profession
  55. 55. Results and outcomes
  56. 56. Who do you believe?
  57. 57. "Its all about other sites"
  58. 58. "Its all about links"
  59. 59. "its all about what your website does"
  60. 60. Who do you believe?
  61. 61. In 1950 if you needed a lawyer you got a lawyer
  62. 62. patents hrlitigation trademark protection
  63. 63. PPC DeveloperUX / UI designer Email SEO Social Media
  64. 64. All these people cost money
  65. 65. Its not you neighbors 12 year old
  66. 66. If you don't have a multi-million dollar budget
  67. 67. which most companies don't
  68. 68. what do you get and what do you leave?
  69. 69. and how do you even know the difference
  70. 70. Who do you listen to?
  71. 71. confusion
  72. 72. ? x
  73. 73. For technical people it was all about mashups, feeds and ajax
  74. 74. For nontechnical people it was community, sharing and publishing
  75. 75. It was the wave of the future
  76. 76. It was going to change business
  77. 77. It was going to change society
  78. 78. It was going to change the world
  79. 79. Didn't we hear this already?
  80. 80. the operating system that runs Farmville © ® TM
  81. 81. the central place for storing your photos of the party where you got too drunk to stand up http://www.flickr.com/photos/15938251@N08/2174292717/
  82. 82. then got fired for it
  83. 83. Its easy to see how obvious things we're in hind site
  84. 84. the rise of digital was the same shiny object syndrome as everything media channel before it
  85. 85. Radio was supposed to destroy print
  86. 86. TV was supposed to render Radio obsolete
  87. 87. The internet was supposed to kill TV
  88. 88. It didn't happen
  89. 89. It’s not going to happen
  90. 90. You had to be a technician to make radio work
  91. 91. then the amateurs showed up with HAM radios
  92. 92. Then the industry matured and professions split Production Director Broadcast Engineers Content Producers Recording Engineers Etc... Etc... Etc...
  93. 93. TV followed the same path
  94. 94. Now you can get your TV commercials produced for free by the cable company
  95. 95. ...and anyone can buy a camera http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JVC_Camcorder.jpg
  96. 96. The internet did not kill TV
  97. 97. People watch 20% more TV now than they did 20 years ago (before the internet got popular) http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/average-tv-viewing-for-2008-09-tv-season-at-all-time-high/
  98. 98. Its the same old story The internet is one more channel
  99. 99. it isn't single purpose Except...
  100. 100. you watchtv
  101. 101. you listento the radio
  102. 102. you readprint
  103. 103. watch, listen, read, publish, build and socialize online
  104. 104. More complexity means more areas of specialization
  105. 105. We are on the same track it will just take longer to settle down
  106. 106. Web 2.0 was just as obvious
  107. 107. How do companies pick a service provider?
  108. 108. Interview many sources Research their options Compare their options √ √ √
  109. 109. NO.
  110. 110. sure... some do
  111. 111. most don’t
  112. 112. Most businesses in this country are small businesses
  113. 113. AND THEY ARE BUSY
  114. 114. - Don't know who to ask - Don't know who to believe - Can't tell the difference Interview many sources Research their options Compare their options √ √ √
  115. 115. ...so they ask a friend
  116. 116. They “activate” their social network
  117. 117. its how humans are
  118. 118. the social web didn't invent this
  119. 119. any entrepreneur that operated before the internet can tell you that
  120. 120. Its not what you know its who you know
  121. 121. Do You Friends Know?
  122. 122. "Fred did my website and its CRUD based, totally ReSTful and degrades gracefully"
  123. 123. "Oh yea, I need a cruddy degrading website"
  124. 124. So Fred gets called.
  125. 125. What if Fred is a neighbors 12 year old?
  126. 126. What if Fred sucks?
  127. 127. How can the client tell?
  128. 128. What if...
  129. 129. Doesn't have good network - asocial
  130. 130. Doesn't get a response from their network
  131. 131. Doesn't get a response from their network Bad experiences
  132. 132. Doesn't get a response from their network Bad experiences Just don't know
  133. 133. Doesn't get a response from their network Bad experiences Just don't know The guy that did their website is a veterinary assistant now
  134. 134. Doesn't get a good vibe from their recommended service provider
  135. 135. They just don't jive
  136. 136. Now what do they do?
  137. 137. They see a banner ad Display Punch the Monkey Win an MP3 Player
  138. 138. They follow an affiliate link
  139. 139. They see a TV commercial
  140. 140. They attend a webinar
  141. 141. They rely on the branding they have been exposed to
  142. 142. They do what they have always done Rely on Traditional Channels
  143. 143. Digital is a traditional channel
  144. 144. So did the social web destroy the traditional web?
  145. 145. Did web 2.0 make web 1.0 obsolete?
  146. 146. No.
  147. 147. You will lose half your audience.
  148. 148. The social web is just another channel
  149. 149. its getting a lot of hype
  150. 150. the snake oil salesmen have moved in
  151. 151. A new profession is being born
  152. 152. Another cog in the marketing wheel
  153. 153. Integration
  154. 154. Increased sales and won awards
  155. 155. April 1, 1982
  156. 156. Most people have no idea the social part ever happened - they just saw the TV commercial
  157. 157. The latest "Super Social Media Success" came from a traditional agency
  158. 158. So where are companies looking for Digital and Social Media help?
  159. 159. PR Firms Direct Marketing Firms PR Firms
  160. 160. So what does it all mean?
  161. 161. No one owns the space.
  162. 162. You don’t need to "Know" web development
  163. 163. We don’t need to “Know” web code to sell online
  164. 164. You don’t need to “Know” technology to promote a business
  165. 165. So what about all the digital folks that got us here?
  166. 166. Have we made a world where the world doesn't need us?
  167. 167. For most organizations technical expertise takes a back seat to strategy http://www.flickr.com/photos/fredspoonphotos/2659621760/
  168. 168. and a strong strategy can come from anywhere
  169. 169. Our disciplines are even cannibalizing themselves
  170. 170. 5 years ago PPC and SEO was the hot topic
  171. 171. PPC + SE0 = Traffic
  172. 172. We send out tweets to our friends to find what we want instead of using a search engine
  173. 173. Or do we?
  174. 174. We trust the recommendations of friends 75 25Yes No
  175. 175. 2 years ago 75 25Yes No Now 55 45Yes No
  176. 176. Whats a friend anymore?
  177. 177. A twitter follower?
  178. 178. A Facebook friend?
  179. 179. Friend doesn't mean what it used to.
  180. 180. Of course, our trust isn't just down from our friends - its down on everything
  181. 181. So what doest that mean?
  182. 182. Where do we go for information?
  183. 183. How do organizations spread their message and engage with audiences?
  184. 184. ?
  185. 185. There is no one clear answer
  186. 186. Thats the point
  187. 187. It comes down to strategy
  188. 188. It comes down to your market
  189. 189. Sometimes its the web
  190. 190. Sometimes it isn't
  191. 191. Path of Least Resistance
  192. 192. If its TV, then they will use TV
  193. 193. If its Print, the'll use print
  194. 194. If its PPC, SEO, Social, Consumer Generated or direct - they will do that
  195. 195. And if they do enough of it, they will just hire the people with the expertise to do it
  196. 196. But they won't be called "digital"
  197. 197. Digital will be absorbed into other disciplines
  198. 198. Social Media expert will cease to be a phrase and a job title will take its place
  199. 199. Our innovations will become a list of best practices
  200. 200. Execution & creativityTechnical knowhow
  201. 201. The promise of the internet was to share and democratize knowledge
  202. 202. Our trade knowledge is no exception <!DOCTYPE html > <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> <head> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /> <meta name="keywords" content="Web Design, Graphic Design, Marketing, Digital Marketing, Web Developer, Creative" /> <meta name="description" content="Reid Givens - Digital Marketing specialist in Albuquerque New Mexico focusing on Web Development, Design," /> <title>Reid Givens - Digital Marketing, Advertising and Web Development</title> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="style.css" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="thickbox.css" /> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery-1.3.2.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery-ui-1.7.1.all.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery.livequery.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery.easing.1.3.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery.easing.compatibility.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/jquery.cycle.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="javascripts/thickbox.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> // lets get this party started ---------------------------------------------- // $(document).ready(function(){ // connect $('#connect dl.icons').hover(function(){ $(this).css('background','#444'); },function(){ $(this).css('background','none'); $('#connect dl.icons dd').hide(); }); $('#connect dl.icons dt').hover(function(){ // turn off all showing dd $('#connect dl.icons dd').hide(); // get the current class var channel = $(this).attr('class'); // change the background of this class $(this).css('background', '#aaa'); // show the right dd for this dt $('#connect dl.icons dd.' + channel).show(); // call ga pageTracker._trackEvent("Connect", channel); }, function(){ // turn off the background color $('#connect dl.icons dt').css('background','none'); });
  203. 203. But we are not going anywhere
  204. 204. http://www.flickr.com/photos/juhansonin/4137915935/ Our industry is maturing and we are figuring it all out
  205. 205. The hot thing of today...
  206. 206. will be the traditional, boring “plain jane” job title of tomorrow
  207. 207. The hierarchy of web folks will become established and the pecking order will be set
  208. 208. But that doesn't mean that we will all be devalued
  209. 209. This setup give us the ability to have stars
  210. 210. The internet didn't get rid of the media gatekeepers like it was supposed to
  211. 211. It just created new ones
  212. 212. and created niches for stars to rise
  213. 213. we have more gatekeepers, each with a little less power over the masses, but a great deal over their niches
  214. 214. So what do we do
  215. 215. We participate
  216. 216. Engage with organizations that are furthering our industry
  217. 217. Engage with other organizations that are not in our industry, to see how we can help them
  218. 218. Study the cycles that have come before to find ways to integrate, understand and innovate in our turf
  219. 219. Shape the future of our craft
  220. 220. Realize that we are all part of a bigger picture and work to find the best places for our strengths
  221. 221. Create specialties & work to increase our strengths instead of waisting time trying to be a jack of all trades
  222. 222. Become leaders for the field that is now ours
  223. 223. We are the ambassadors and creators of the most complex and exciting channel in the history of man kind.
  224. 224. We realize it is just one channel out of many, but we’ll take the lead of it and own it
  225. 225. its our baby
  226. 226. Create the future we want before someone else does it for us

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