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Belief Dynamics - Joseph Kelly, Refactor Camp 2018

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Talk given at Refactor Camp, May 2018

Published in: Technology
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Belief Dynamics - Joseph Kelly, Refactor Camp 2018

  1. 1. Belief Dynamics @josephkelly
  2. 2. coinmarketcap.com
  3. 3. Outline Lift :: Success of an Idea Fluid flows Aerodynamics Implications
  4. 4. Fluid flows https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Inviscid_flow_around_a_cylinder.gif
  5. 5. Reynold’s Number Energy Content Resistance of the Medium Re = Speed x Length Kinematic viscosity = Inertial forces Viscous forces
  6. 6. Low Reynold’s number Re = <1 Small organism x Low energy Water Large organism x High energy Tar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZk2bMaqs1E&t=419s https://giphy.com/gifs/90s-lCcGV0Q6UlPtm
  7. 7. Societal Re Energy Content Resistance of the Medium Re = • Distance • Transaction costs • Conservatism https://giphy.com/gifs/animated-captain-caveman-nZumtdOQfdVxm
  8. 8. Lowering Societal Viscosity Language Money Print media Telegraph Internet
  9. 9. Lower resistance increases Reynold’s number Energy Deployed Re = Resistance of the Medium • Distance • Transaction costs • Status quo
  10. 10. Dynamics of increased Reynold’s numbers Action within the fluid medium becomes more important Turbulence develops https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_vortex_street
  11. 11. https://www.amazon.com/Lif e-Moving-Fluids-Princeton- Paperbacks/dp/0691026165 http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/ content/368/1929/4729
  12. 12. Boundary layer “The flow of gas reacts to the edge of the boundary layer as if it was the physical surface of the object.” https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/airplane/airsim.html https://giphy.com/gifs/physics- fluid-dynamics-10OooSd1YJRrG0
  13. 13. Boundary Layer ≈ Expertise
  14. 14. Unattached flow
  15. 15. Fluid Medium Imagine a static field of frozen air molecules
  16. 16. Motion
  17. 17. Displacement “For every action, there is an equal an opposite reaction” An asymmetric airfoil encourages air to flow downward behind it
  18. 18. Displacement Lift is proportional to the amount of air that is displaced https://sourceforge.net/p/xfl r5/discussion/679398/threa d/5b8a46fa/
  19. 19. Airfoil = Strategic Displacement Device Size of potential displacement Also: Surprise Interestingness Shannon Entropy
  20. 20. Governance Democracy Communities Sovereignty Economics Monetary Policy Markets Artificial Scarcity Supply & Demand Intrinsic Value Regulation Speculation Distributed Systems Invisible Hand Game Theory Elections Horizontal Scalability Append- only logs CAP Theorem BitTorrent Byzantine Generals Representation Cryptography PoW PoS Blockchains Provably Secure Elections git + pgp Public/Priv ate Keypairs Hash Functions Error Correction Espionage National Security E-Commerce Merkle Trees BitTorrent Blockchains @unchainedcap
  21. 21. The curious rush in High Pressur e
  22. 22. Developers Users Investors Entrepreneurs https://www.nasa.gov/ae ro/aeronautical- simulation.html
  23. 23. Most ICOs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQI3AWpTWhM
  24. 24. Long-term Effects http://aviationphoto.org/paul-bowen/ https://www.amazon.com/History- Aerodynamics-Machines-Cambridge- Aerospace/dp/0521669553
  25. 25. Engineering in High Re
  26. 26. Crypto mailing list Satoshi “This is amazing” Satoshi launches Bitcoin into an audience *By the way - what’s an engine? Machine for sucking in people and making them do things / propel something forward Relies on fuel (capital) to work Over time, others add to the project and build engines* alongside it Businesses, exchanges “This will never work” A mixture of positive and negative attention keeps it afloat “Coolest thing ever!
  27. 27. Ways to fly ideas
  28. 28. Hybrid models
  29. 29. Engineering Tradeoffs • Fuel: helps generates thrust, but adds weight • Speed: necessary, but induces drag • Structural soundness requires mass • Surface textures can reduce surface friction
  30. 30. https://www.amazon.com/Aerodynamic-Design-Transport-Aircraft-Obert/dp/1586039709

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