Redington13-15 Mallow StreetLondon EC1Y 8RDT. 020 7250 3331www.redington.co.ukRobert Gardner, Co-CEO of RedingtonBeyond Matching Assets – An Overview14 October 2010
• Bob McKim• Stanford University• A Creativityresearcher in 60sand 70s• Ran Stanford DesignProgramme• One of his CreativityExercises• Draw your neighbourvery quickly...• 30 Seconds...• ...Lets GOLet’s start by getting creative
8Growth and Matching AssetsEquitiesCommodities & HedgeFunds
9Session Topic Speaker2 Investment Performance and Economic Outlook for 2010/2011Gavyn, the former Government Advisor and Chief International Economistfor Goldman Sachs, examines markets performance and shifts in pensionfund asset allocationsFulcrum Asset ManagementGavyn Davies3 Developed Market EquitiesThe validity of active developed equity management appears to be inquestion following the travails of the last 3 years market turbulence andpoor active returns. David debates whether a passive approach to equityinvestment is the way forward, what is an appropriate benchmark, andwhat is the future for active equity management?Intech International David SchofieldAgenda
10Session Topic Speaker4 Emerging Market Equities – Stepping out of the shadowsOver the past ten years, emerging markets delivered 10% returns versusroughly zero for developed markets. Jeff explores this impressiveperformance and give his views on the future of this asset classF&C InvestmentsJeff Chowdhry5 Hedge Funds – Whipping up the perfect exposureEnsuring that your hedge fund exposure complements rather thanduplicates your existing investment portfolio can be a tough assignment.Join David to learn moreRedingtonDavid Thompson
11Session Topic Speaker6 Commodities – Accessing Growth through CommoditiesOli and Kristen will discuss the strategic case for inclusion of Commoditiesin a pension portfolio, the current outlook for prices and certainimplementation considerationsBlackstone Alternative Asset ManagementOlivier Meyohas & Kristen Eshak7 Growth assets in practice – Panel Discussion Speakers & delegates8 2011 - Themes to considerGuest Speaker, Canonbury GroupDr Pippa Malmgren
Session 2Investment Performance andEconomic Outlook for 2010/2011Gavyn Davies, Chairman | Fulcrum Asset Management
The Global Economy and Asset MarketsGavyn DaviesChairman, Fulcrum Asset Management14th October 2010Redington Education
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct80859095100105110Major Asset Classes - Total Returns in 2010Global Equities (local currencies) Global Bond Returns ($ hedged) GSCI Global Commodities Index HFRX Global Hedge Funds1
Q4 Q12008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12010Q2 Q3 Q450100150200250300350Liquidity Injections by the Major Central Banks(Jan 2008=100)Bank of England US Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of Japan15
06 07 08 09 10020406080100120No Pass-Through from Monetary Base to M2 in the US(% change over 12 months)Monetary base Money supply M216
Q12009Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12010Q2 Q3 Q4-0.500.511.52Amount of Monetary Tightening Expected in the USRate Changes Implied by the Fed Funds Futures ContractsNext 18 months Next 12 months Next 6 months17
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-10-505101520Equity Valuation - Developed vs Emerging Markets - 12 Month Forward P/E(Factset Aggregates)Developed (MSCI World) Emerging (MSCI EM) P/E Premium for Emerging Markets Trendline: LinearTrendline: Linear with 1st standard deviation, trend based23
06 07 08 09 102468101214161820Equity Valuation - Emerging Regions - 12 Month Forward P/EFactset AggregatesEastern Europe Asia x Japan Latin America Middle East & Africa24
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-3-2-10123Real Effective Exchange Rates for the Major Economies (BIS Indices)Deviations from Long Term Averages, Expressed in Standard DeviationsEuro US Dollar Sterling Japan25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep949698100102104106108110112114HFRX GlobalHedge FundsBalancedPortfolio (Nofees)FAB PlusperformanceFulcrum AlphaGlobal Financial Assets : Total Returns (%)(Theoretical portfolio: 50% eqs, 40% bonds, 10% comms)26
04 05 06 07 08 09 10354045505560-12-10-8-6-4-202468UK - GDP and Business SurveysReal GDP Growth (% saar) (Right) Composite Whole Economy Business Survey27
297 Year Average Annual Nominal Expected Total ReturnsMajor Equities5.6%4.0%6.6%7.6%2.2%5.9%7.7%4.1%2.8%2.2%6.2%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%NominalTotalReturnExpected Asset Return Expected Alpha Annual Return Over Last 10 YearsGlobal US Europeex UKUnitedKingdomJapan Asia exJapanEmergingMarketsUSLargeUSSmallUSGrowthUSValue
307 Year Average Annual Nominal Expected Total ReturnsMajor Fixed Income4.9%4.0%6.8%3.7%6.3%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%NominalTotalReturnExpected Asset Return Expected Alpha Annual Return Over Last 10 YearsInvestmentGrade FixedIncomeUS 10 YearTreasuriesHigh Yield US 10 YearIndex LinkedEmerging MarketDebt
Session 3Developed Market EquitiesDavid Schofield, President | Intech International
Active vs. Passive InvestingIs the Debate Finally Over?David SchofieldPresident, International DivisionINTECHIntroduced by Janus Capital International Ltd
The Move to Passive Gains TractionInvestors disappointed with the performance of some of their active managers in 2008 and2009 appears to be driving the growth in passive management.Source: eVestment Alliance
• Recent performance• Cost• Career risk• Consistency• TransparencyResults Presented are Gross of Fees 2008 2005-20095th Percentile -32.99% 8.44%25th Percentile -39.16% 5.47%Median -41.20% 3.84%75th Percentile -43.41% 3.02%95th Percentile -49.94% 0.95%# of Members in Universe 70 60MSCI World Index -40.33% 2.57%(0=Highest,100=Lowest)Sources: FactSet and eVestment AlliancePeriods greater than one year are annualized. Data presented reflects past performance,which is no guarantee of future results.40820%25%50%75%100%PercentileReturnsRankingMSCI World IndexWhat is driving the move to passive?
And even good managers underperformQ: How likely is it that your manager with an IR of0.75 underperforms for 5 years in a 20 yearperiod?A: 69%Q: So why bother?A: Because it is 99% likely is it that this samemanager outperforms the market over 20 years
Why Active?Consistent alpha is valuableThe chart illustrates the growth of a hypothetical $100 million for 30 years at 8%, 9%, and 10%.Rates of return are hypothetical and do not represent the returns of any particular investment.$100,000,000$700,000,000$1,300,000,000$1,900,000,0000 5 10 15 20 25 30Years8.00% 9.00% 10.00%$1.7 Billion$1.3 Billion$1.0 BillionThe 1% DifferenceCompounding Could Make a Significant Difference Over the Long Term
The Great Debate: Passive vs. Active ManagementPassive Active Passive Active• Low cost• Implementation Efficiency (lowturnover, trade costs, liquidity• Transparency• Consistency of returns (you getthe market)• Difficult to beat net of fees (it isthe average)• No tracking error• Little career risk• Potential for above-market returns• Alpha• Potentially more efficient portfoliothan passive• Opportunity to avoid market fads,whims, etc.• Can be critical in low nominalreturn environment• Contribution to finding “intrinsicvalue” in stocks• Compounding positive relativereturns can be a powerfuladvantage over the long term• Cap-weighted benchmarks may beinefficient• Subject to market fads, whims, etc.• Definition of passive may varyamong manager and plan sponsors• Aggregate of the market• No alpha• Higher cost• Difficulty in identifying managerswho can produce alpha• Career risk• Tracking error risk• Potential for short-term periods ofunderperformance even with a‘good’ manager• Additional due diligence to ensureconsistent application ofinvestment process over time• Requires long-term perspectiveeven if the investment processis working normallyStrengths Weaknesses
Is Alpha Available in Large-Cap Equities? Active managers seek alpha using many different investment strategies. Fundamental strategies that seek to identify mis-valued stocks or pricinginefficiencies. Quant strategies that seek to predict stock or factor returns. Mathematical strategies that seek to exploit the inefficiency of passivebenchmarks. Examples of simple investment strategies that beat cap-weightedbenchmarks over time. Equal-weighted portfolios. Diversity-weighted portfolios. Fama & French Size Factor. Fundamental indexes.
Capturing Alpha Relative to a Benchmark is EasyChart represents top 500 stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) U.S. Stock Database based on weighted capitalization for the period July 1, 1962 to December 31, 2009.Data reflects past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. An equal-weight portfoliocaptures alpha relative to acapitalization-weightedbenchmark.-No forecasts are required. Historically, equal-weightportfolios have tended tooutperform theircapitalization-weightedbenchmarks over time.Equal Weighted Relative Return
Many Simple Investment Strategies BeatCapitalization-Weighted Benchmarks Over Time No forecasts required. No concern about inaccurate forecasts. No need for sophisticated statistics. No optimization required. No need for sophisticated mathematics. Theoretically plausible. Consistent with Stochastic Portfolio Theory. In reasonable markets: Constant-weight portfolios beat capitalization -weighted portfolios over time. Diversity-weighted portfolios beat capitalization-weighted portfolios over time. Portfolios that smoothly go from underweighting a benchmark’s larger stocks tooverweighting a benchmark’s smaller stocks beat capitalization-weighted benchmarksover time. Small-stock portfolios beat large-stock portfolios over time. Historically true.
Alpha Capture and Size Effect (Diversity)Equal-Weighted Relative ReturnDiversity is a measure of the concentration or dispersion of capital in a market.Chart represents top 500 stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) U.S. Stock Database based on weighted capitalization for the period July 1, 1962 to December 31, 2009.Data reflects past performance, which is no guarantee of future results.Alpha Capture Maximum Diversity isequal weighted Minimum Diversity is100% of capital in asingle stock Has been meanreverting for 80+ years
Equal-Weighted Alpha Captureand Rebalancing FrequencyChart represents top 500 stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) U.S. Stock Database based on weighted capitalization for the periodJuly 1, 1962 to December 31, 2009. Data reflects past performance, which is no guarantee of future results.
Changes in Market Diversity*Broad Market Database includes stocks from the CRSP database prior to 2006 and from the Russell 3000 Index after 2006. The CRSP universe includes common stocks listed on the NYSE, AMEX and the NASDAQNational Market excluding the following: preferred stocks, unit investment trusts, closed-end funds, real estate investment trusts, americus trusts, foreign stocks and American depository receipts.Charts are cumulative through time period shown above.Past performance does not guarantee future results.-40-20020401927 1936 1945 1954 1963 1972 1981 1990 1999 2008As of June 30, 2010Variation in Diversity - Broad Market Database*ChangeinDiversity(%)The Great Depression The “Nifty-Fifty” EraThe Tech BubbleThe Global Financial Crisis The relationship between the market-cap size of stocks (small vs. large) affects the relativeperformance of all managers. Low points in market-cap Diversity tend to coincide with marketcrises. Active Manager relative performance tends to do better when small-cap stocks are in favor andtends to lag when large-cap stocks are in favor. Trends in Diversity currently point to a future environment that is more likely to provide apositive tailwind to active management.
1E-091E-071E-051E-031E-011 10 100 1,000 10,0001969197919891999200910 bps0.1 bp0.001 bp0.0001 bpStability in a Changing World Capital distribution is remarkablystable, especially between the 10thand 1,000th stock. Trends that impact theconcentration of capital in theshort term average out over time(e.g., size, economic turmoil,systematic factors).Capital Distribution of U.S. Stock Market*Stocks Ranked by CapitalizationMarketWeight1000 bps*The curves were generated using the capitalization data from the daily stock database of the Center for Research in Securities Prices (CRSP) U.S. Stock Database. The market at each snapshot consists of the constituents of theCRSP universe with available capitalization data on the last business day of the years shown. The market weight of a stock is defined to be the ratio of its market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all stocks in themarket. Stocks are ranked by capitalization from the largest stock (rank 1) to the smallest stock (rank <10,000).0.00001 bp
An application of Stochastic Portfolio Theory Fewer periods of negative relative returns. Shorter periods of negative relative returns. Less severe negative relative returns. Lower tracking error. A Higher Information Ratio.Is it possible to generate alpha from VolatilityCapture, but with:?
INTECH Simulated Alpha Capture Performance,1968 – 2009(Note: equal-weighted portfolios assume no trading costs; INTECH portfolios include trading costs)Chart represents top 500 and 1000 stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) U.S. Stock Database based on weighted capitalization for the period shown.See Disclaimer for additional information regarding simulated performance. Data reflects past performance, which is no guarantee of future results.Top 500 equal-weightedTop 1000 equal-weightedVolatility-Optimised EnhancedVolatility-Optimised ModerateVolatility-Optimised Aggressive(Note: equal weighted portfolios assume no trading costs;simulated optimised portfolios include trading costs)
Summary: Active vs. Passive Active beats passive if there is an Alpha. Does Alpha exist? Where can you find it? Stochastic Portfolio Theory. Alpha exists. Alpha is easy to find. Relative Volatility Capture provides an Alpha. With market Diversity near historical lows and potentially poisedto trend upward, timing may favor active over passive. Active beats passive over time.
Active vs. Passive InvestingIs the Debate Finally Over?David SchofieldPresident, International DivisionINTECH
DisclaimerIssued by Janus Capital International Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.This document does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, buy or a recommendation for securities, other than pursuant to an agreementin compliance with applicable laws, rules and regulations. Janus Capital Group and its subsidiaries are not responsible for any unlawful distribution ofthis document to any third parties, in whole or in part, or for information reconstructed from this presentation and do not guarantee that theinformation supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, or make any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. As with all investments,there are inherent risks that each individual should address.The distribution of this document or the information contained in it may be restricted by law and may not be used in any jurisdiction or anycircumstances in which its use would be unlawful. Should the intermediary wish to pass on this document or the information contained in it to anythird party, it is the responsibility of the intermediary to investigate the extent to which this is permissible under relevant law, and to comply with allsuch law. Janus is not responsible for any unlawful distribution of this document to any third parties.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no assurance that the investment process will consistently lead to successful investing.INTECH will act as sub-adviser to Janus Capital International Limited. This information does not constitute or form part of an offer to providediscretionary or non-discretionary investment management of advisory services, other than pursuant to an agreement in compliance with applicablelaws, rules and regulations.For Institutional use onlyRC-1010(12)0111 Europe Inst
Session 4Emerging Market EquitiesStepping out of the shadowsJeff Chowdhry, Head of Emerging Markets Equities | F&C Investments
Emerging Market Equities – Stepping Out of the Shadows14th October 2010Jeff Chowdhry – Head of Emerging Market Equities
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 68-4-20246810 19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009E2010E2011EIndustrialized EconomiesEmerging MarketSource: Morgan StanleyReal GDP Growth
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 690%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009E2010E2011EEM (EM Includes Middle East)USSource: Morgan StanleyShare of Global Nominal US$ GDP
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 70China & India vs US & Japan: GDP GrowthSource: Consensus Economics, 31/05/2010
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 71Working Age Population Continues to Grow15 to 64 age group0500100015002000250030003500400045001950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010e2015e2020e2025e2030e2035e2040e2045e2050eDevelopedEmergingSource: F&C, Morgan Stanley
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 72Source: Morgan Stanley0501001502002503003504001991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009e2010e2011e2012e2013e2014e2015e2016e2017e2018e2019e2020eBRICsUSEuro AreaNo.ofHouseholdsinMillionsHousehold Disposable Income Over US$10,000
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 73Source: Morgan StanleyEuro AreaGermanyFranceItalySpainGreeceUKSwedenPolandHungaryCzechRussiaTurkeyS. AfricaChinaTaiwanKoreaIndiaIndonesiaThailandMalaysiaChileBrazilMexicoAustraliaJapanHong KongUS0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%2009 Budget Deficit as % of GDP2009GovtDebtas%ofGDPPortugalNational Financial Strength/Weakness
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 74Emerging Markets: InflationSource: Factset as at 30/06/10
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 75Emerging Markets: Short Term Interest RatesSource: Factset as at 31/08/10
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 76Emerging vs Developed Markets: Foreign ReservesSource: EIU, IMF, as at April 2010
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 77Emerging vs Developed Markets: Foreign ReservesSource: EIU, IMF, *Dec 2009
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 78A Growing Asset ClassEmerging markets as a % of MSCI All World Index0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%200220032004200520062007200820092010Emerging Markets can no longer be ignored?Average exposure for Pension Fundinvestors in emerging market equityis between 3% and 8%Source: F&C, Datastream, Pensions and Investment Jan 2010
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 7910-Year Performance: Emerging Markets vs World vs USSource: FactSet, USD, as at 30/08/10
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 805-Year Performance: Emerging Markets vs World vs USSource: FactSet, USD, as at 30/08/10
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 813-Year Performance: Emerging Markets vs World vs USSource: FactSet, USD, as at 30/08/10
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 821-Year Performance: Emerging Markets vs World vs USSource: FactSet, USD, as at 30/08/10
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 83Sep-10MSCI Emerging Markets Index – Forward PESource: Morgan Stanley11.6x15.9x9.5x4.0x6.0x8.0x10.0x12.0x14.0x16.0x18.0x20.0x22.0x24.0xDec-93Dec-94Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97Dec-98Dec-99Dec-00Dec-01Dec-02Dec-03Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Average+1 S.D.-1 S.D.
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 8414.4x16.0x5x10x15x20x25x30x35x40xJan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10MSCI EM MSCI WorldSep-10Historical P/E – Emerging Markets vs Developed Markets
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 85MSCI Emerging Markets Index – Price:Book RatioSource: Morgan Stanley2.1x1.7x0.0x0.5x1.0x1.5x2.0x2.5x3.0x3.5x4.0x4.5xJan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10MSCI EM MSCI WorldSource: MS Asia/GEMs Equity StrategySep-10
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 868.00-202468101292 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Major EM Equity MarketPeaksMajor EM EquityMarket TroughsERP,%Emerging Markets – Equity Risk PremiumSource: Morgan Stanley
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 87China: % Rural Households – Washing MachinesSource: Wall Street Journal; China National Statistic Bureau; as at March2008
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 88China: % Rural Households – ComputersSource: Wall Street Journal; China National Statistic Bureau; as at March2008
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 89China: % Rural Households – BicyclesSource: Wall Street Journal; China National Statistic Bureau; as at March2008
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 90China vs US: Domestic Automobile Sales* (Monthly)*smoothed by 6 months averageSource: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, FactSet as at30/07/10
Expect excellenceExpect excellence 91GE – “This is the era of the developing world andemerging markets”Vodafone – “Emerging Markets still offer us vast potential”Rio Tinto – “ongoing development in Emerging Marketswill drive metals demand”Pernod Ricard – “Emerging markets represent 30% of theGroup’s business and generate two-thirds of its growth”Procter & Gamble – “our centre of gravity will shift to thedeveloping markets”Quotes from Global CEOs
Session 5Hedge FundsWhipping up the perfect exposureDavid Thompson | Redington
Redington13-15 Mallow StreetLondon EC1Y 8RDT. 020 7250 3331www.redington.co.ukDavid Thompson, Head of Manager ResearchAllocating to Hedge Funds14 October 2010
Why Allocate to Hedge Funds? What are you looking for?Allocating to Hedge FundsWhy allocate to Hedge Funds• Absolute returns during all market conditions?• Equity like returns but with bond like volatility?• Accessing asset classes which are not currently in the scheme, for example commodities?• Low Correlation to other asset classes?• Accessing currently held asset classes but using a different style of investment?
Allocating for Smaller SchemesAllocating to Hedge FundsAllocating for Smaller SchemesFor smaller schemes, it may be impractical to invest in individual hedge funds:• A lot of upfront governance and advice needed;• Complexity;• Small allocations might be impossible and little scope to reduce fees;• Manager concentration; and• Ongoing monitoring.In this situation a Fund of Hedge Funds will probably be more suitable:• Asset allocation – active asset allocation into different styles;• Diversification – across both styles and managers;• Stream of different returns with the manager operating as many levers as possible; and• Enables a small scheme to get a different perspective on the investment world.
Allocating for Larger SchemesAllocating to Hedge FundsAllocating for Larger SchemesLarger schemes have a lot more flexibility and resources when it comes to investing in hedge funds.However, the largest schemes must be aware of how the hedge fund strategies will fit into theirexisting portfolio:• The scheme will probably have a significant allocation to equities and credit and will already benefitfrom rising equities, tightening credit and lower interest rates.• They can either try to access their current asset classes in a different way by using hedge funds, orlook for completely new return streams, for example commodities, FX, macro and convertiblearbitrage.• Well selected managers and styles can be used to complement the existing strategy and adddiversification.• Fund of Hedge Funds may be less appealing to larger schemes, because they lose an element ofcontrol over the investment. There is a case for thematic Fund of Hedge Funds where the strategy ispre-determined to be relevant to the client’s existing portfolio.
10%Correlation90%CorrelationNot HereNot HereAllocating to Hedge FundsWhere is the Diversification?Roll Up!Roll Up!Find the ball and win diversification!Try Your luck for only 2 and 20!Not Here Either!!!Where is the Diversification?
-0.10.20.30.22.214.171.124.80.91.0Dec-92Jul-93Feb-94Sep-94Apr-95Nov-95Jun-96Jan-97Aug-97Mar-98Oct-98May-99Dec-99Jul-00Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04Mar-05Oct-05May-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Correlation3 Year RollingCorrelationHFRI Equity Hedge v.s SP 500 TRHFRI Equity Hedge v.s MSCI World TR(Gross)What you actuallyget is increasedcorrelationWhat you actually see....Allocating to Hedge FundsCorrelations between Equity Long Short Strategies and EquitiesCorrelations Between Equity Hedge Strategies and Equities-0.10.20.30.126.96.36.199.80.91.0Dec-92Jul-93Feb-94Sep-94Apr-95Nov-95Jun-96Jan-97Aug-97Mar-98Oct-98May-99Dec-99Jul-00Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04Mar-05Oct-05May-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Correlation3 Year RollingCorrelationHFRI Equity Hedge v.s SP 500 TRHFRI Equity Hedge v.s MSCI World TR(Gross)Ideally, we want lowor falling correlationsduring a crisisHistorically, thestrategy has highcorrelationsWhat you want to see....Since December 1992, the rolling correlation between equity long/short strategies and equitymarkets has trended higher. Since 2000 the rolling correlations between the HFRI Equity Index(HFRI EI) and the S&P 500 and MSCI World have both been above 0.6. Since May 06 the correlationof the HFRI EI and S&P 500 has been over 0.9. Using a long/short equity manager might not addthe diversification that you are seeking.Source: Redington, HFRI, Bloomberg
Allocating to Hedge FundsCorrelations between Relative Value Strategies and EquitiesCorrelations Between Relative Value Strategies and Equities-0.2-0.20.40.60.81.0Dec-92Jul-93Feb-94Sep-94Apr-95Nov-95Jun-96Jan-97Aug-97Mar-98Oct-98May-99Dec-99Jul-00Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04Mar-05Oct-05May-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Correlation3 Year RollingCorrelationHFRI Relative Value v.s SP 500 TRHFRI Relative Value v.s MSCI World TR(Gross)What you actuallyget is increasedcorrelationWhat you actually see....What you want to see....-0.2-0.1-0.10.20.30.188.8.131.52.8Dec-92Jul-93Feb-94Sep-94Apr-95Nov-95Jun-96Jan-97Aug-97Mar-98Oct-98May-99Dec-99Jul-00Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04Mar-05Oct-05May-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Correlation3 Year RollingCorrelationHFRI Relative Value v.s SP 500 TRHFRI Relative Value v.s MSCI World TR(Gross)Ideally, we want lowor falling correlationsduring a crisisIn the past, thestrategy has hadhigh correlationsThe strategy hasproduced low andnegative correlationsSince December 1992, the rolling correlation between relative value strategies and equity marketshas trended higher. Previous to October 1998, the rolling correlations between the HFRI RelativeValue Index (HFRI RVI) and the S&P 500 and MSCI World showed some diversification benefit,however, this diversification has been eroded in recent times. The correlations have risen to around0.75. Using a relative value manager might not add the diversification that you are seeking.Source: Redington, HFRI, Bloomberg
-0.1-0.10.20.30.184.108.40.206.8Dec-92Jul-93Feb-94Sep-94Apr-95Nov-95Jun-96Jan-97Aug-97Mar-98Oct-98May-99Dec-99Jul-00Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04Mar-05Oct-05May-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Correlation3 Year RollingCorrelationHFRI Macro v.s SP 500 TRHFRI Macro v.s MSCI World TR(Gross)Allocating to Hedge FundsCorrelations between Macro Strategies and EquitiesCorrelations Between Macro Strategies and EquitiesWhat you actually see....Ideally, we want lowor falling correlationsduring a crisisIn the past, thestrategy has hadvery low andnegativecorrelationsWhat you want to see....The strategy hasproduced low (ish)correlations-0.1-0.10.20.30.220.127.116.11.80.9Dec-92Jul-93Feb-94Sep-94Apr-95Nov-95Jun-96Jan-97Aug-97Mar-98Oct-98May-99Dec-99Jul-00Feb-01Sep-01Apr-02Nov-02Jun-03Jan-04Aug-04Mar-05Oct-05May-06Dec-06Jul-07Feb-08Sep-08Apr-09Nov-09Jun-10Correlation3 Year RollingCorrelationHFRI Macro v.s SP 500 TRHFRI Macro v.s MSCI World TR(Gross)You do seem to getsome diversificationduring a crisisThe strategy can stillproduce very highcorrelationsHere we see that macro strategies might offer some diversification benefit during a crisis. Therolling correlation between macro strategies and equity markets has been low with some peaks,although never breaching 0.8. During the recent financial crisis, the rolling correlations betweenthe HFRI Macro Index (HFRI MI) and the S&P 500 and MSCI World dropped steadily and troughedat zero in April 2009. Using a macro manager might give you the diversification that you areseeking during a severe downturn.Source: Redington, HFRI, Bloomberg
Allocating to Hedge FundsCorrelations between Different StrategiesCorrelations between Different Strategies – Pre and Post Lehman CollapseAs shown on the previous slides,correlations do change over time. Wecan see that post Lehman, the Macrostrategy correlations to other strategies(mostly) fellSource: Redington, HFRI, Bloomberg
Accessing existing asset classes with a different style of investmentsActive Equity or Passive and Hedge FundComparing an Active Manager with a Combination of aPassive Manager and a Hedge Fund.• An active manager with FTSE 100 as his benchmark withan outperformance target of 100bp may be expected totake 200bp of tracking error volatility. This may meanthat he effectively has circa 80% of his portfolio thatreplicates the index and 20% that is active. Alternatively,you could have 80% of your portfolio invested passivelyand 20% managed extremely actively (perhaps by ahedge fund).• Fees: How do the fee structures compare? The fees forthe traditional active manager may be 60bp. The feesfor the passive equities may be circa 10bp and thehedge fund 1.5% and 10% outperformance. Assuming aperformance of 10% this equates to a total combinedfee of 58bp which is comparable to a traditional longonly equity manager.• Style: Does this get the style diversification you arelooking for? Do you want the manager to be able to goto a zero allocation in equities if he sees fit? Are youhappy for your manager to have no benchmark?• Risk: Is this likely to give you an improved risk returnActiveEquityPassiveEquityUberActive
Allocating to Hedge FundsSummarySummary• It will be more practical forsmall schemes to access hedgefunds through fund of funds.• Larger schemes with moreresources will be able to able toinvest in individual hedge funds,however...• They need to choose thestrategy wisely and think hardwhat they need from theirallocation. This will help toensure that it is appropriate fortheir existing strategy andportfolio.• As we have seen, hedge fundstrategies might not offerattractive correlations and thesecorrelations are prone tochange depending on themarket environment.Source: Redington, HFRI, Bloomberg
Allocating to Hedge FundsEndAny Questions andThank You
Session 6Accessing Growth throughCommoditiesOlivier Meyohas & Kristen EshakBlackstone Alternative Asset Management
Redington Conference14 October,2010Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.Confidential – Not for public disclosure: This information is presented at your request and is for yourexclusive use only. This information is confidential and may not be reproduced, distributed, copiedor used for any other purpose.
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.109_________________________________Note: Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of BAAM as of the date appearing in this material only.Strategic Motivations For Inclusion of Commodities in Pension PortfoliosConfidential – Not for public disclosure. Commodities may exhibit inflation-hedging characteristics Commodities have historically provided diversification from, and low correlation to, traditionalasset classes Commodities have generally exhibited low correlation to each other, providing furtherpotential diversification benefits Commodities generally exhibit positive skewness and may offer a hedge against event risk Commodities can provide exposure to future economic growth
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.110_________________________________(1) Facts & Fantasies about Commodity Futures by Gary Gorton (The Wharton School & National Bureau of Economic Research) & K. Gert Rouwenhorst (School of Management, Yale University)Confidential – Not for public disclosure.Commodities Exhibit Inflation-Hedging CharacteristicsCorrelation of Assets with Inflation (July 1959 – December 2004) Stocks and bonds are negatively correlated with inflation, while the correlation of commodity futures with inflation ispositive at all horizons, and statistically significant at the longer horizons(1)Stocks Bonds Commodity FuturesMonthly -0.15 -0.12 0.01Quarterly -0.19 -0.22 0.141 year -0.19 -0.32 0.295 year -0.25 -0.22 0.45
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.111-0.9%-3.4%16.5%-3.3%15.1%73.2%86.4%10.3%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%Jan - Dec 1970 May 73 - Jul 76 Feb 77 - Aug 82 Aug 90 - Jan 91S&P 500 S&P GSCI Total Return IndexCommodities Exhibit Inflation-Hedging Characteristics (Cont’d.)_________________________________Source: Bloomberg. Indices are as follows: S&P GSCI TR Index, S&P 500. CPI: Consumer Price Index USA (International Monetary Fund). There is no guarantee of trading performance and pastperformance is no indication of current or future performance/results. Commodities are real assets which generally tend to rise in price as inflation increasesConfidential – Not for public disclosure.CPI5.4%8.0% 8.7%5.5%
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.112Sample correlations between physical commodities, as well as physical commodities to equities and bonds, validate thediversification benefits of commodities in a portfolio, as well as the opportunity set within the space.The average correlation between all commodities in the major indices is 0.25 over the past 5 years (7/1/05 – 6/30/10).Over the same period the average correlation of these commodities to equities is 0.18 and -0.14 to bonds (US 10Y)._________________________________Source: Bloomberg as of 7/1/10.Confidential – Not for public disclosure.Commodities Exhibit Low Correlation To Other Asset Classes and OneAnotherWTI NGHeatingOilRBOB Gold Aluminum Copper Nickel Zinc Wheat Corn Soybeans Sugar CottonLiveCattleLeanHogsS&P 500 US 10YWTI 1.0000NG 0.2805 1.0000Heating Oil 0.7934 0.3502 1.0000RBOB 0.7191 0.2827 0.7950 1.0000Gold 0.2113 0.0553 0.2011 0.1363 1.0000Aluminum 0.3729 0.1529 0.3651 0.3125 0.2591 1.0000Copper 0.4241 0.1369 0.3978 0.3695 0.2629 0.7133 1.0000Nickel 0.3237 0.0856 0.2984 0.2990 0.1868 0.5344 0.6200 1.0000Zinc 0.3272 0.0936 0.3312 0.2789 0.2653 0.6848 0.7547 0.5958 1.0000Wheat 0.3065 0.0913 0.2785 0.2253 0.1556 0.1952 0.2545 0.1787 0.1940 1.0000Corn 0.3389 0.1380 0.3086 0.2685 0.1593 0.2447 0.2735 0.1978 0.2147 0.6304 1.0000Soybeans 0.3966 0.1724 0.3842 0.3459 0.1141 0.2809 0.3081 0.2564 0.2650 0.4137 0.5768 1.0000Sugar 0.2704 0.1546 0.2531 0.2181 0.1020 0.2170 0.2610 0.1904 0.2085 0.2202 0.2465 0.2530 1.0000Cotton 0.2835 0.1139 0.2758 0.2603 0.1203 0.2654 0.2853 0.2389 0.2468 0.3006 0.3159 0.3539 0.2517 1.0000Live Cattle 0.1613 0.0208 0.1402 0.1318 0.0200 0.1379 0.1873 0.1356 0.1220 0.1122 0.1324 0.0998 0.0993 0.1222 1.0000Lean Hogs 0.0600 0.0240 0.0459 0.0582 0.0363 0.0373 0.0388 0.0580 0.0541 0.1060 0.0763 0.0439 0.0112 0.0507 0.1816 1.0000S&P 500 0.2867 0.0953 0.2771 0.2573 (0.0267) 0.2310 0.2812 0.2116 0.2032 0.1653 0.1601 0.1895 0.1258 0.2177 0.1675 0.0494 1.0000US 10Y (0.2781) (0.0399) (0.1725) (0.1562) 0.0348 (0.1642) (0.1977) (0.1397) (0.1358) (0.1419) (0.1006) (0.1857) (0.0840) (0.1465) (0.0930) (0.0286) (0.3391) 1.0000
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.11360%80%100%120%140%160%Jun-90 Aug-90 Oct-90 Dec-90 Feb-91GSCI S&P 50085%90%95%100%105%110%115%120%125%Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03GSCI S&P 500Commodities May Offer A Hedge Against Event Risk_________________________________Source: Bloomberg. Indices shown are S&P GSCI TR Index and S&P 500 Index.Confidential – Not for public disclosure.S&P 500 vs. GSCI after First Gulf War S&P 500 vs. GSCI after SARS EpidemicWHO Global Outbreak & AlertResponse Network reports “fluoutbreak” in ChinaIraq invadesKuwait
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.114The Recovery In Commodity Prices Has Been Modest Compared ToPrevious Recessions_________________________________Source: Barclays Capital ResearchNote: Legend dates represent dates of recession. As of August 31, 2010.(1) Indexed to 100 at start of each recession.Confidential – Not for public disclosure.GSCITotalReturnIndex(1)
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.115_________________________________Source: JPM Commodity Research, September 2010Note: Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of BAAM as of the date appearing in this material only.Commodities Returns in Rate and CPI EnvironmentsConfidential – Not for public disclosure.US Rate Environment: Annualized Total Returns US CPI Environment: Annualized Total Returns
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.116_________________________________Source: JPM Commodity Research, September 2010Note: Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of BAAM as of the date appearing in this material only.Emerging Market Demand Remains BuoyantConfidential – Not for public disclosure.Non-OECD Demand for Crude Oil
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.117_________________________________Source: JPM Commodity Research, September 2010Note: Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of BAAM as of the date appearing in this material only.Emerging Market Demand Remains BuoyantConfidential – Not for public disclosure.Chinese Net Imports of Crude
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.118_________________________________Source: JPM Commodity Research, September 2010, Eurostat, DOENote: Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of BAAM as of the date appearing in this material only.Emerging Market Demand Remains BuoyantConfidential – Not for public disclosure.Auto Sales are Relatively Low
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.119_________________________________Source: JPM Commodity Research, September 2010, Bloomberg, Metal BulletinNote: Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of BAAM as of the date appearing in this material only.Declines in Capex Will Result in Tight Balance SheetsConfidential – Not for public disclosure.Supply Cuts Have Supported Prices
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.120_________________________________Source: Barclays Capital Commodity Research, 29 September 2010; USDANote: Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of BAAM as of the date appearing in this material only.Global Grain Production Looks TightConfidential – Not for public disclosure.Large Cuts Were Made to 2010-11 Global Grain Production Forecasts
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.1212009 Excess 2009 TotalSpot Roll Yield Return ReturnEnergy 62.4% -51.3% 11.0% 7.3%Agriculture 14.7% -11.1% 3.6% 3.6%Livestock 2.8% -17.0% -14.2% -16.3%Precious Metals 26.2% -1.3% 24.9% 25.5%Base Metals 91.2% -9.1% 82.1% 73.8%Aggregate 50.3% -37.0% 13.3% 13.5%2008 Excess 2008 TotalSpot Roll Yield Return ReturnEnergy -49.5% -3.6% -53.1% -52.4%Agriculture -19.7% -10.3% -29.9% -28.9%Livestock -6.4% -22.1% -28.5% -27.4%Precious Metals 2.0% -3.1% -1.0% -0.5%Base Metals 48.5% -1.8% -49.8% -49.0%Aggregate -42.8% -4.5% -47.3% -46.5%2007 Excess 2007 TotalSpot Roll Yield Return ReturnEnergy 52.3% -16.7% 35.6% 41.9%Agriculture 41.1% -18.5% 22.6% 28.3%Livestock 1.5% -14.2% -12.7% -8.6%Precious Metals 29.4% -7.1% 22.3% 27.9%Base Metals -10.7% 0.9% -9.8% -5.6%Aggregate 40.7% -13.9% 26.8% 32.7%2006 Excess 2006 TotalSpot Roll Yield Return ReturnEnergy -8.7% -21.5% -30.2% -26.8%Agriculture 29.6% -21.6% 8.0% 13.3%Livestock -5.9% -5.2% -11.1% -6.7%Precious Metals 25.4% -7.2% 18.3% 24.1%Base Metals 51.5% 1.9% 53.4% 60.9%Aggregate 0.4% -19.5% -19.1% -15.1%2009 Excess Return Components2008 Excess Return Components2007 Excess Return Components2006 Excess Return ComponentsCost Of Negative Roll YieldS&P GSCI Commodities Performance – 2006 to 2009_________________________________Note: Results for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. Source: JPMorgan Global Currency & Commodity Research (Commodity Index Monitor, December 2009).Confidential – Not for public disclosure. A total return index has three components:spot return, roll return, and return oncollateral Both traditional commodity indices andETFs are structurally flawed To avoid physical delivery, eachmonth they buy the second forwardmonth, selling the current month toavoid physical delivery The monthly roll is very transparent inthe market Negative roll yield has been a significantdrag on returns Sell low and buy high in a contangoenvironment The front month will often disconnect withthe rest of the forward curve Does not reflect hedging activity One dollar invested in the S&P NaturalGas sub-index in January 2002 would beworth 6.9 cents at the end of June 2010
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.122Significant Drawdown Risk A passive investment into the S&P GSCI TR indexbeginning on January 1, 1990 would have generated acumulative return of +126.05%, equivalent to +4.25% on anannualized basis.Cost of Drawdowns(1)0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.0019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009Indexvalue(Jan1,1990=100)-48.26%-35.42%-26.41%-67.65%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.0019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009Indexvalue(Jan1,1990=100)-48.26%-35.42%-26.41%-67.65%Performance of the S&P GSCI TR Index0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.0019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009Indexvalue(Jan1,1990=100)-48.26%-35.42%-26.41%-67.65%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.0019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009Indexvalue(Jan1,1990=100)-48.26%-35.42%-26.41%-67.65%Performance of the S&P GSCI TR IndexPerformance of the S&P GSCI TR Index_________________________________(1) Please note that the 50% and 75% drawdown scenarios are based on a hypothetical track record that is equal to the actual monthly returns for all periods outside of the drawdowns and a 50% or 75% reduction in exposure tothe monthly returns during the drawdown periods ( GSCI: Dec 1997 – Feb 1999, Dec 2000 – January 2002, October 2005 – January 2007 and July 2008 – February 2009 and the S&P 500 Jul 1998 – Aug 1998, Sep 2000 – Sep2002 and Nov 2007 – Feb 2009. ). The 100% scenario represents the actual track record of the index. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is meant to broadly illustrate the benefits of active management. Pleasenote that active management would also likely limit the upside return participation.Note: Opinions expressed reflect the current opinions of BAAM as of the date appearing in this material only.Source: BloombergExposure to GSCIDrawdownsCumulative Return Annualized Return50.00% 739.58% 11.48%75.00% 341.17% 7.87%100.00% 126.05% 4.25% Drawdowns in Commodities aremore severe than in EquitiesExposure to S&P 500DrawdownsCumulative Return Annualized Return50.00% 517.21% 9.74%75.00% 317.95% 7.58%100.00% 179.42% 5.39%Confidential – Not for public disclosure.
Blackstone®Alternative Asset Management L.P.123DisclaimerImportant Disclosure Information:The materials contained herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any interest in any investment vehicles (the “BAAM Funds”) managed by BlackstoneAlternative Asset Management L.P. (“BAAM”) or its affiliates or underlying managers. Any such offer or solicitation shall be made only pursuant to the confidential private placement memorandum for a BAAM Fund (“PPM”), whichqualifies in its entirety the information set forth herein and contains a description of the risks of investing. These materials are also qualified by reference to the governing documents and the subscription agreement relating to therelevant BAAM Fund (collectively, the “Agreements”). The PPM and Agreements relating to a BAAM Fund should be reviewed carefully prior to an investment in that Fund. 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Session 7Growth assets in practicePanel Discussion
Session 82011 – Themes to considerGuest Speaker, Dr Pippa Malmgren | Canonbury Group
Upcoming Redington“Teach in”Topic: Alternatives to Cash FundingWhen: 08.30 – 10.00 Thursday 25th November 2010Where: RSA House, John Adam Street, London WC2N 6EZSign up via the evaluation sheet or by emailing:Education@redington.co.ukAnd finally...................
SEEKING OUT THERETURNGROWTH ASSETSIN FOCUS…Date: Thursday 14th October 2010Time: 09.00 – 13.00Place: Royal Society, London