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The Road to Recovery? Credit Crunch Tracking February 2010
[object Object],On the Road to Recovery...? ,[object Object]
Consumers believe the Irish Economy is improving.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) 1.92 12 1.70 7 1.88 11 2.32 18 NET Same/Better (3-5) 22 16 19 38 How do you expect the Irish economy to fare in the next 6 months? May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % 2.54 26 48 Feb ‘ 10 %
Higher expectations seen  among the youth, the retired and those born outside of Ireland.
Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now  % Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5) 18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS TOTAL % COUNTRY OF ORIGIN Ireland % Other %
A positive outlook for the World economy, is driving the Irish outlook.
Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) NET Same/Better (3-5) 2.72 16 2.11 12 2.77 18 3.18 19 50 27 51 68 How do you expect the World economy to fare in the next 6 months? May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % 3.36 20 78 Feb ‘ 10 % ,[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations are also increasing for housing and job market… but many still fear it may get worse
Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average The Housing Market 6 months from now? Job security 6 months from now? 2.29 Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) 1.85 20 11 1.86 1.53 13 7 2.32 1.89 23 14 2.43 26 2.24 20 NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 19 21 10 37 22 43 34 2.59 36 53 2.34 27 40 May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % How do you expect the Housing and Job markets to fare in the next 6 months?
The expected tough budget did not materialise for most consumers, reducing the perceived impact of the recession on them personally
High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Expected Personal Impact of Recession - Overall Average July ‘ 08 % 5.7 May ‘ 09 % 5.8 6.6 Feb ‘ 09 % 5.1 Sept ‘ 08 % 6.1 July ‘ 09 % 7.0 Oct ‘ 09 % Some Impact (4-7) 60 58 51 48 55 44 6.0 Feb ‘ 10 % 53 ,[object Object]
18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS Expected Personal Impact of Recession  –  Net High Impact (8-10) TOTAL % The biggest change in impact appears to be among middle class families, who have become far less negative about the impact of the recession
The percieved impact on monthly spending, lifestyle and job security also decline with increased optimism.
Monthly Spending Average Your Way Of Life 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.4 6.2 5.9 5.0 4.6 5.9 5.6 6.7 6.4 High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Some Impact (4-7) 54 53 48 56 41 49 53 50 51 55 41 45 July ‘ 08 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % July ‘ 08 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % 5.9 49 Feb ‘ 10 % 5.6 51 Feb ‘ 10 % Expected Impact of Recession on….
Average Full-time Workers Part-time Workers 5.0 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 6.5 5.6 5.7 High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Some Impact (4-7) 39 36 37 38 40 36 29 36 38 44 40 34 July ‘ 08 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % July ‘ 08 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % 4.7 34 Feb ‘ 10 % 5.7 34 Feb ‘ 10 % The perceived impact on job security also improves, but the fear of job loss remains...
[object Object]
Concerns About  The Future Lower Prices/ Cost-of-Living Not Reduced Spending Lower Household Income Suggests that income is available for improved spending when consumers feel more secure! Main reason for reducing spend to date, if at all... Oct 2009 % Jan 2010 % Only a third have reduced spend due to lower household income
% C2DE Males Females 18-34 45-64 35-44 65+ ABC1 Age Social Class Sex TOTAL Reduced spend due to lower income... Women and the 45-64 year olds are more likely to have decreased their spend due to lower income – suggesting men and those in the older and youngest age groups are most likely to start spending again first.
[object Object]
Already increased Not likely to increase Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or socialising Grocery spend Consumer goods and services – e.g. hairdresser, clothes, mobile phone, gaming etc. Holidays and short breaks Likely to increase in next 6 months Likely to increase in next 12 months Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Likelihood to increase spend in... Some small shifts in increased spending  have already occurred, but the majority remain reluctant to increase
But, younger age groups and higher social classes are most likely to increase spend again... % Likely to increase spend in next 12 months Entertainment Grocery Spend Consumer Goods/ Services Holidays/ Shorter Breaks Total 35 32 34 35 Gender Male 36 30 33 36 Female 35 32 34 34 Age 18-34 50 39 45 46 35-54 31 31 32 31 55-64 20 18 30 28 65+ 22 25 26 26 Social Class ABC1 36 31 34 39 C2DE 33 32 34 31
Summary... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary... ,[object Object],[object Object]
Methodology – RED Express ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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RED C - Credit Crunch Tracking - Feb 2010

  • 1. The Road to Recovery? Credit Crunch Tracking February 2010
  • 2.
  • 3. Consumers believe the Irish Economy is improving.
  • 4.
  • 5. Higher expectations seen among the youth, the retired and those born outside of Ireland.
  • 6. Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now % Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5) 18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS TOTAL % COUNTRY OF ORIGIN Ireland % Other %
  • 7. A positive outlook for the World economy, is driving the Irish outlook.
  • 8.
  • 9. Expectations are also increasing for housing and job market… but many still fear it may get worse
  • 10. Much better (5) Much worse (1) Average The Housing Market 6 months from now? Job security 6 months from now? 2.29 Stay the same (3) Slightly better (4) Slightly worse (2) 1.85 20 11 1.86 1.53 13 7 2.32 1.89 23 14 2.43 26 2.24 20 NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 19 21 10 37 22 43 34 2.59 36 53 2.34 27 40 May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % May ‘ 09 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % How do you expect the Housing and Job markets to fare in the next 6 months?
  • 11. The expected tough budget did not materialise for most consumers, reducing the perceived impact of the recession on them personally
  • 12.
  • 13. 18-34 % 35-44 % 45-64 % AGE 65+ % Any % None % CHILDREN Male % Female % GENDER ABC1 % C2DE % SOCIAL CLASS Expected Personal Impact of Recession – Net High Impact (8-10) TOTAL % The biggest change in impact appears to be among middle class families, who have become far less negative about the impact of the recession
  • 14. The percieved impact on monthly spending, lifestyle and job security also decline with increased optimism.
  • 15. Monthly Spending Average Your Way Of Life 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.4 6.2 5.9 5.0 4.6 5.9 5.6 6.7 6.4 High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Some Impact (4-7) 54 53 48 56 41 49 53 50 51 55 41 45 July ‘ 08 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % July ‘ 08 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % 5.9 49 Feb ‘ 10 % 5.6 51 Feb ‘ 10 % Expected Impact of Recession on….
  • 16. Average Full-time Workers Part-time Workers 5.0 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 6.5 5.6 5.7 High impact (8-10) Limited Impact (1-3) Some Impact (4-7) 39 36 37 38 40 36 29 36 38 44 40 34 July ‘ 08 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % July ‘ 08 % May ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 09 % Sept ‘ 08 % July ‘ 09 % Oct ‘ 09 % 4.7 34 Feb ‘ 10 % 5.7 34 Feb ‘ 10 % The perceived impact on job security also improves, but the fear of job loss remains...
  • 17.
  • 18. Concerns About The Future Lower Prices/ Cost-of-Living Not Reduced Spending Lower Household Income Suggests that income is available for improved spending when consumers feel more secure! Main reason for reducing spend to date, if at all... Oct 2009 % Jan 2010 % Only a third have reduced spend due to lower household income
  • 19. % C2DE Males Females 18-34 45-64 35-44 65+ ABC1 Age Social Class Sex TOTAL Reduced spend due to lower income... Women and the 45-64 year olds are more likely to have decreased their spend due to lower income – suggesting men and those in the older and youngest age groups are most likely to start spending again first.
  • 20.
  • 21. Already increased Not likely to increase Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or socialising Grocery spend Consumer goods and services – e.g. hairdresser, clothes, mobile phone, gaming etc. Holidays and short breaks Likely to increase in next 6 months Likely to increase in next 12 months Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Oct ‘ 09 % Feb ‘ 10 % Likelihood to increase spend in... Some small shifts in increased spending have already occurred, but the majority remain reluctant to increase
  • 22. But, younger age groups and higher social classes are most likely to increase spend again... % Likely to increase spend in next 12 months Entertainment Grocery Spend Consumer Goods/ Services Holidays/ Shorter Breaks Total 35 32 34 35 Gender Male 36 30 33 36 Female 35 32 34 34 Age 18-34 50 39 45 46 35-54 31 31 32 31 55-64 20 18 30 28 65+ 22 25 26 26 Social Class ABC1 36 31 34 39 C2DE 33 32 34 31
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.