Experts Workshop on Renewable Integration with Electricity Grids in the Arab Region
Held in Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain
8-9...
CONTENTS
The Pan Arab Interconnection (PAI) Study
 Objective




Tasks Included in the Study
Study Results so far
Rema...
PART I
OVERVIEW OF THE PAN ARAB
INTERCONNECTION STUDY
SIMPLE QUESTION

What is best for Egypt

What is best for Jordan

• Export electricity
• Export NG
• How much of each

• I...
NOW, WHAT ABOUT

ELEC

NG
ELEC
ELEC

NG

ELEC

NG

NG

More Questions
• What is Best for Each Arab Country
• What is Best ...
STUDY OBJECTIVES
• Determine the best electric energy and natural gas (NG) trade
scenario for each Arab country separately...
SALIENT DATA ABOUT THE STUDY
Consultant
CESI
Ramboll

(Italy)
(Denmark)

…… Electrical Aspects
…… Natural Gas Aspects

Dur...
TASKS INCLUDED IN THE SCOPE OF WORK
Task 1: The power sector in the
Arab World- Present status and
future trends

Task 2: ...
SCHEDULE FOR EXECUTING THE STUDY (Updated)
Task

Status

Task 1

Completed on Schedule

Task 2

Comments

Completed on Sch...
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS USED IN STUDY
For countries that have provided partial generation expansion plans, the additional
future ...
TASKS COMPLETED SO FAR

Task

Deliverable

Task 1

Complete database on all generating plants in all Arab countries
that p...
STEP BY STEP PROCEDURE AS TO HOW WE ARRIVED TO
THE PREFFERED SCENARIO IN TASK 3
BAU Scenario

IC Scenario

o Business As U...
EXISTING INTERCONNECTION LINKS MODELED IN THE IC SCENARIO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
2...
DECIDED INTERCONNECTIONS

1

Egypt (High Dam) – Sudan (New Algoreir) AC double circuit OHL 500 kV

2

Saudi Arabia (Medina...
How the IC Scenario Improved on the BAU Scenario
IC Scenario TOTAL Electric Energy Exchanges (TWh)
100.0
90.0

86.0

2025
...
GOING FROM IC SCENARIO TO ICr SCENARIO
BAU Scenario

IC Scenario

ICr Scenario
o IC scenario Plus the
following interconne...
Some Salient Results for The ICr Scenario
Peak Power (GW)
500.00

30%
455.00

450.00
400.00
356.27

370.08

378.76

391.15...
ICr SCENARIO
SHARE OF PRIMARY RESOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY
PRODUCTION IN 2015 (%)
55.2%

26.58%

NG
HFO
LFO

LCO
HCO
DS
BC
SC...
2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

New Thermal
New Hydro
New RES

...
2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario

Iraq

Lebanon
New Thermal

New Hydro
New RES
Interco...
2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario

Yemen

Oman
UAE-Abu
Dhabi
New Thermal
New Hydro

Qat...
THE NG SCENARIO
IC

BAU

ICr

NG Scenario

o Same as BAU scenario, but added
the following NG Pipelines and
LNG facilities...
SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE NG SCENARIO
GWh
2,600,000
2,400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,00...
COMPARING THE VARIOUS RESULTS
 Best (minimum) cost scenario is NG scenario
 Countries not in favor of NG scenario ( not ...
WHAT WAS AGREED UPON
 Start with ICr scenario
 Augment it with some components from the NG
scenario, as follows:
 NG pi...
ALTERNATIVE APPROACH
Step 1

ICr

Only
Libya-Egypt
gas pipeline

Only
Libya-Tunisia
gas pipeline

Both

Step 2
Yes,
Iraq-K...
RESULTS
48” pipeline
785 km
Operational in 2018
Estimated cost $2,160
Million

ICr

+

Libya-Egypt
gas pipeline

36” pipel...
LONG TERM AVERAGE SPECIFIC COST OF ELECTRICITY ($/MWH)
Egypt

2015

2020

2025

2030

ICr Scenario

109.6

111.2

110.7

1...
SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE ( ICR+NG) SCENARIO
Scenario "ICr&NG" Arab Countries Installed Capacity - Peak Power
GW
500.00
...
SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE ( ICR+NG) SCENARIO
Scenario "ICr&NG" Scenario Balance Generation - Demand
GWh
2,600,000
2,400,...
ICr Scenario Egypt
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
(5,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
(25,000)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ...
Preferred Scenario Egypt
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
(5,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
(25,000)
2012 2013 2014 2015...
Egypt Electricity Net Exports and Imports with Saudi Arabia
Saudi exports more to
Egypt due to reduction
of cost of Saudi ...
COMPARING THE
VARIOUS SCENARIOS
Comparison of the TOTAL NPV Capital Expenditure Costs

278,000

276,000

276,026

274,000
272,000
271,262

270,000

271,24...
Comparison of the Total NPV of Operation Costs (BUSD)
1120
6

11

1100
39
1080

70

1060
1,113

1,107

1,102

1040

1,073
...
NPV of Total Operating Costs 2012 - 2030
BAU Scenario

IC Scenario

ICr Scenario

NG Scenario

Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Lib...
CAPACITY OF POWER EXCHANGE
MW
20,000

Total cross border NTC between Arab Countries

18,000
2300 2300 2300 2300 2300 2300
...
IF NUCLEAR AND RES ARE ASSUMED TO BE INSTALLED IN KSA
Assumption
12,000 MW Nuclear ( 12 plants, each rated at 1,000 MW)
8,...
IF NUCLEAR AND RES ARE ASSUMED TO BE INSTALLED IN KSA
IMPACT ON GENERATION EXPANSION PROGRAM
Capacity Factor
MW

Preferred...
If Nuclear and Renewable Energy Sources in KSA
Are Included in Model

Year 2020
Jordan

Jordan
1,792

2,011

1,590
11,714
...
If Nuclear and Renewable Energy Sources in KSA
Are Included in Model

Year 2030
Jordan

Jordan
588

11,152

Egypt

371

2,...
RECAP OF THE STUDY
Task 1

Data Collection
Power Sector

Data Collection
Gas Sector

Task 2

Existing and
Planned Projects...
RECAP OF THE STUDY
Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4
•
•
•

Hour by Hour
Modeling
Power Flows Over
Line
Identify
Bottlenecks ...
PREVIEW OF RESULTS OF TASK 4
PART II
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW)
Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Existing Thermal
New Thermal
Hydro

Tunisia

RES
Algeria...
ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW)

Iraq

Lebanon
Existing Thermal
New Thermal
Hydro
Syria

RES

Jordan

0

10,0...
ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW)
Yemen

Oman
UAE-Abu
Dhabi
Existing Thermal
Qatar

New Thermal
Hydro
RES

Bahr...
EXPECTED FUTURE FOR RES IN THE ARAB WORLD
Renewable
(MW)
Existing Installed Capacity
at End of 2011(MW)

Total
(MW)

Renew...
FOR THE PERIOD 2012- 2030
ICr Scenario

Preferred Scenario

MW of RES to be added (MW)

27,790

27,790

% of New Generatin...
WHICH MEANS
• Out of total investments by the Arab countries, during the period
2012-2030, to increase the installed capac...
PART III

IMPACT OF RES ON THE PAN-ARAB
INTERCONNECTION GRID
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THAT COULD ARISE DUE TO THE
INTRODUCTION OF RES IN THE ARAB WORLD
•
•
•
•
•

Voltage Sags
Operation Con...
VOLTAGE SAGS
Utility

No Help Here
Adjacent
Customer

RES May Help

RES Facility

How RES affects voltage Sags
 The RES i...
OPERATION CONFLICTS
Only this device must
operate to clear fault
feeders

Breaker

Recloser
Fused Laterals

Conflict betwe...
INTERFERENCE WITH RELAYING
Normal Zone of
Protection
Reduced
Zone of
Protection

Utility Breaker

Fault

Reduced Source
Cu...
SYMPATHETIC TRIPPING

12.47 kV

A
Fault

B
2-MW Wind Turbine

Presence of RES may cause Sympathetic Tripping
 Sympathetic...
HARMONICS
RES

Flow of Third Harmonics in Delta-wye Transformers
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THAT COULD ARISE DUE TO THE
INTRODUCTION OF RES IN THE ARAB WORLD CONCLUSION
Since the RES included in ...
SOME THOUGHTS ON SYSTEM STABILITY
• In general, mitigating measures need to be taken if RES generating capacity
reaches 25...
CONCLUSION
• The PAI study could act as a road map for developing the electrical and gas
infrastructures in the Arab world...
Thank you
For your patience
The pan arab interconnection project latest update
The pan arab interconnection project latest update
The pan arab interconnection project latest update
The pan arab interconnection project latest update
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The pan arab interconnection project latest update

  1. 1. Experts Workshop on Renewable Integration with Electricity Grids in the Arab Region Held in Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain 8-9th October, 2013 The Pan Arab Interconnection Project Latest Update Arab Fund For Economic & Social Development
  2. 2. CONTENTS The Pan Arab Interconnection (PAI) Study  Objective    Tasks Included in the Study Study Results so far Remaining Activities Renewable Energy Sources (RES)    Existing Renewable Energy Sources in the Arab World Planned RES up to 2030 How Planned RES Impacted the Results of the PAI Study Impact of RES on The Pan-Arab Interconnection Grid  Effect on System Protection  Effect on Loading of Tie-Lines Between Countries  Miscellaneous Issues
  3. 3. PART I OVERVIEW OF THE PAN ARAB INTERCONNECTION STUDY
  4. 4. SIMPLE QUESTION What is best for Egypt What is best for Jordan • Export electricity • Export NG • How much of each • Import electricity • Import NG • How much of each
  5. 5. NOW, WHAT ABOUT ELEC NG ELEC ELEC NG ELEC NG NG More Questions • What is Best for Each Arab Country • What is Best for All Arab Countries (Combined) • What is the Trade-off for Each Country, if We Take the Optimum Scenario
  6. 6. STUDY OBJECTIVES • Determine the best electric energy and natural gas (NG) trade scenario for each Arab country separately and for all Arab countries. • Determine the best options for new electricity and gas interconnections. • Cover the planning period 2012-2030
  7. 7. SALIENT DATA ABOUT THE STUDY Consultant CESI Ramboll (Italy) (Denmark) …… Electrical Aspects …… Natural Gas Aspects Duration of Contract 18 Months (February 2012 – August 2013) Value of Contract Around $1.3 Million Financed by a grant from the Arab Fund
  8. 8. TASKS INCLUDED IN THE SCOPE OF WORK Task 1: The power sector in the Arab World- Present status and future trends Task 2: The gas sector in the Arab World- Potential available NG quantities and potential surplus for NG trading Task 3: Scenarios and assessment of economic feasibility of different alternatives for energy/power exchange Task 3: Scenarios and feasibility of electrical energy trading and interconnection re-enforcements Task 5: Financial study of the selected alternative and electricity pricing Task 6: Bilateral multilateral trade model for electricity and NG Task 7: Implementation plan of the proposed electrical and NG interconnections
  9. 9. SCHEDULE FOR EXECUTING THE STUDY (Updated) Task Status Task 1 Completed on Schedule Task 2 Comments Completed on Schedule Task 3 AFESD financed a V.O. to study more scenarios in order to find the “preferred Completed behind Schedule scenario” Task 4 - All 4 tasks currently conducted in parallel Task 5 - Consultant will submit reports on results of these tasks in mid October Ongoing Task 6 Task 7 - Consultant will submit preliminary final report before the end of November 2013
  10. 10. MAIN ASSUMPTIONS USED IN STUDY For countries that have provided partial generation expansion plans, the additional future generation units of the various generation technology selected in each country are considered. The cost and performance characteristics of generating technologies described in the data collection report are inputs to electricity capacity planning. The Base Case of the load forecast is considered for all Arab countries. Natural Gas prices are estimated for the various Arab Countries, together with the restricted volumes for natural gas use in the power sector. Other primary resource prices of the different fuels are described in the “Data Collection and Study Assumption Report” and are equal for all Arab Countries. No subsidies are applied for the development of Renewable Energy Sources. A unique discount rate of 10% is used across the board Used a common Generation Planning Criteria as defined in the Planning Memorandum for electricity.
  11. 11. TASKS COMPLETED SO FAR Task Deliverable Task 1 Complete database on all generating plants in all Arab countries that participated in the study Task 2 Incomplete database on the gas sector in all Arab countries that participated in the study Task 3 Preferred scenario for upgrading electrical interconnection and gas facilities in the Arab countries (minimizes total NPV of generation during the period 2012-2030)
  12. 12. STEP BY STEP PROCEDURE AS TO HOW WE ARRIVED TO THE PREFFERED SCENARIO IN TASK 3 BAU Scenario IC Scenario o Business As Usual o Electrical interconnection scenario o Generation in each country used to supply loads in that country o Existing and planned tie lines modeled o Existing and planned tie lines modeled, but NO energy interchanges occur across the tie lines o Energy is allowed to flow on the tie lines o Economic Model used to determine optimum generation expansion plan that minimize total cost (capital+ O&M) of generation for interconnected system for the entire period 2012-2030
  13. 13. EXISTING INTERCONNECTION LINKS MODELED IN THE IC SCENARIO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Morocco (Oujda)- Algeria (Ghazaouet) AC OHL 225 kV Morocco (Oujda)- Algeria (Tlemcen) AC OHL 225 kV Morocco (Bourdim)- Algeria (Hassi Ameur) AC double circuit 400 kV Algeria (El Hadjar)- Tunisia (Jendouba) AC OHL 400 kV Algeria (Djebel Onk)- Tunisia (Metlaoui) AC OHL 150 kV Algeria (El Aouinet)- Tunisia (Tajerouine) AC OHL 90kV Algeria (El Kala)- Tunisia (Fernana) AC OHL 90 kV Tunisia (Tataoiune)- Libya (Rowiss) AC OHL 220 kV Tunisia (Medenine)- Libya (Abou Kammech) AC double circuit 220 kV Libya (Tobruk) - Egypt (Saloum) AC double circuit 220 kV Egypt (Taba) - Jordan (Aqaba) AC link 400 kV Egypt (Toshka II) - Sudan (Wadi Halfa) AC double circuit 220 kV Jordan (Amman North) - Syria (Dir Ali) AC OHL 400 kV Jordan (Ibrid) - Syria (Daara) AC OHL 220 kV Jordan (Sweimeh) - Palestine (Jericho) AC OHL 132 kV (33kV) Syria (Tartous) - Lebanon (Deir Nbouh) AC OHL 230 kV Syria (Damas) - Lebanon (Kasara) AC OHL 400 kV Syria (Damas) - Lebanon (Anjar) AC OHL 66 kV Syria (Taiym) – Iraq (Qaim) AC OHL 400 kV Syria(Sewedia) - Iraq (Tal Abo Dhaher) AC OHL 132kV Saudi Arabia (Al Fadili)- Kuwait (AI Zour) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV Saudi Arabia (Al Fadili)- GCC (Ghunan) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV GCC (Ghunan)- Bahrain (Qurayyah) - Bahrain (AI Jasra) AC double circuit link 400 kV GCC (Ghunan)- GCC (Salwa) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV GCC (Salwa)- Qatar (Doha South) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV GCC (Salwa) – GCC (Silaa) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV GCC (Silaa) - UAE (Shuweihat) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV UAE (Al Oha) - Oman (Al Wasit) AC double circuit OHL 220 kV
  14. 14. DECIDED INTERCONNECTIONS 1 Egypt (High Dam) – Sudan (New Algoreir) AC double circuit OHL 500 kV 2 Saudi Arabia (Medinah) – Egypt (new substation near Cairo) HVDC link 500 kV 3 Saudi Arabia (Kudmi) – Yemen (Bani Hoshish) BtB + AC double circuit OHL 400 kV 4 Egypt (El Arish) - Gaza Strip, Palestine (Gaza TPP) AC double circuit OHL 220 kV 5 Jordan (Amman West) - West Bank, Palestine (JDECO-4) AC OHL 400 kV
  15. 15. How the IC Scenario Improved on the BAU Scenario IC Scenario TOTAL Electric Energy Exchanges (TWh) 100.0 90.0 86.0 2025 2030 80.2 80.0 70.0 85.3 64.6 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2015 2020
  16. 16. GOING FROM IC SCENARIO TO ICr SCENARIO BAU Scenario IC Scenario ICr Scenario o IC scenario Plus the following interconnections to re-enforce the grid Interconnection Year Entering service 1 Libya-Egypt AC interconnection 400kV 2017 2 Tunisia-Libya AC interconnection 500kV HV DC or BTB 2020 3 Saudi Arabia-Jordan BTB +AC 400kV 2020 4 Second circuit of Egypt-Jordan AC interconnection 400kV 2020 5 Second circuit of Jordan-Syria AC interconnection 400kV 2020 6 Iraq – Kuwait AC Interconnection 400kV 2020 o Model determines minimum cumulative total cost (capital+ O&M) of system generation during the period 2012-2030
  17. 17. Some Salient Results for The ICr Scenario Peak Power (GW) 500.00 30% 455.00 450.00 400.00 356.27 370.08 378.76 391.15 405.94 415.67 426.27 466.77 437.80 25% 341.21 350.00 322.10 20% 305.53 290.01 300.00 271.49 252.75 233.22 250.00 15% 204.35 200.00 180.35 10% 150.00 100.00 5% 50.00 0.00 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Thermal Hydro RES Total Installed System Peak Reserve Margin
  18. 18. ICr SCENARIO SHARE OF PRIMARY RESOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN 2015 (%) 55.2% 26.58% NG HFO LFO LCO HCO DS BC SC 10.31% 0.00% 3.87% 0.09% 0.87% 2.83% 0.16% 0.00% 0.09% LPG N Osh
  19. 19. 2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario Sudan Egypt Libya New Thermal New Hydro New RES Tunisia Interconnection Algeria Morocco 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Million US Dollars 80,000 100,000
  20. 20. 2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario Iraq Lebanon New Thermal New Hydro New RES Interconnection Syria Jordan 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Million US Dollars 30,000 35,000 40,000
  21. 21. 2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario Yemen Oman UAE-Abu Dhabi New Thermal New Hydro Qatar New RES Interconnection Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Arabia 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Million US Dollars 100,000 120,000 140,000
  22. 22. THE NG SCENARIO IC BAU ICr NG Scenario o Same as BAU scenario, but added the following NG Pipelines and LNG facilities o Economic Model used to determine optimum generation expansion plan that minimizes total cost (capital+ O&M) of interconnected system for the entire period 2012-2030
  23. 23. SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE NG SCENARIO GWh 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Demand in GWH 10% 2,465,861 2,366,028 2,269,037 9% 2,175,953 2,086,675 2,000,362 8% 1,915,105 1,833,624 1,754,932 7% 1,673,823 1,590,118 1,511,908 6% 1,434,705 1,362,605 1,288,884 5% 1,201,316 1,109,968 1,029,550 959,663 4% 800,000 3% 600,000 2% 400,000 1% 200,000 0 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Thermal Hydro RES Total Demand Increment Rate
  24. 24. COMPARING THE VARIOUS RESULTS  Best (minimum) cost scenario is NG scenario  Countries not in favor of NG scenario ( not enough certainty in amount of NG available for export)  ICr scenario is significantly better than IC scenario
  25. 25. WHAT WAS AGREED UPON  Start with ICr scenario  Augment it with some components from the NG scenario, as follows:  NG pipeline between Egypt & Libya  NG pipeline between Libya & Tunisia  NG pipeline between Kuwait & Iraq  LNG terminal in Morocco  LNG terminal in Bahrain ( 32 different combinations)
  26. 26. ALTERNATIVE APPROACH Step 1 ICr Only Libya-Egypt gas pipeline Only Libya-Tunisia gas pipeline Both Step 2 Yes, Iraq-Kuwait gas pipeline No, Iraq-Kuwait gas pipeline Step 3 LNG Terminal in Morocco only LNG Terminal in Bahrain only LNG Terminal in Both Morocco & Bahrain ICr +NG (Preferred Scenario)
  27. 27. RESULTS 48” pipeline 785 km Operational in 2018 Estimated cost $2,160 Million ICr + Libya-Egypt gas pipeline 36” pipeline 20 km Operational in 2018 Estimated cost $280 Million + Iraq-Kuwait gas pipeline + 5.0 BC Operational in 2018 Estimated cost $786 Million LNG Terminal in Bahrain Libya-Tunisia gas pipeline LNG Terminal in Morocco x x ICr +NG (Preferred Scenario)
  28. 28. LONG TERM AVERAGE SPECIFIC COST OF ELECTRICITY ($/MWH) Egypt 2015 2020 2025 2030 ICr Scenario 109.6 111.2 110.7 114.2 Preferred Scenario 101.5 78.5 71.6 76.6 Kuwait 2015 2020 2025 2030 ICr Scenario 127.5 125.8 126.4 131.5 Preferred Scenario 116.1 89.2 90.4 96.0 Bahrain 2015 2020 2025 2030 ICr Scenario 105.8 107.2 114.1 118.2 Preferred Scenario 90.1 81.8 81.2 83.4
  29. 29. SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE ( ICR+NG) SCENARIO Scenario "ICr&NG" Arab Countries Installed Capacity - Peak Power GW 500.00 440.63 450.00 399.26 400.00 341.40 350.00 289.06 300.00 305.34 352.31 367.62 408.93 453.27 468.58 30% 422.69 372.41380.64 320.28 25% 20% 270.19 250.26 232.39 250.00 15% 203.35 200.00 179.35 10% 150.00 100.00 5% 50.00 0.00 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Thermal Hydro RES Total Installed System Peak Reserve Margin
  30. 30. SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE ( ICR+NG) SCENARIO Scenario "ICr&NG" Scenario Balance Generation - Demand GWh 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 2,465,861 10% 2,366,028 2,269,037 9% 2,175,953 2,086,675 2,000,362 8% 1,915,105 1,833,624 1,754,932 7% 1,673,823 1,590,118 1,511,908 6% 1,434,705 1,362,605 1,288,884 1,201,316 5% 1,109,968 1,029,550 959,663 4% 800,000 3% 600,000 2% 400,000 1% 200,000 0 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Thermal Hydro RES Total Demand Increment Rate
  31. 31. ICr Scenario Egypt 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 (5,000) (10,000) (15,000) (20,000) (25,000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Egypt - Saudi Arabia Other coutries Saudi Arabia - Egypt Other coutries
  32. 32. Preferred Scenario Egypt 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 (5,000) (10,000) (15,000) (20,000) (25,000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Egypt - Saudi Arabia Other countries Saudi Arabia - Egypt Other countries
  33. 33. Egypt Electricity Net Exports and Imports with Saudi Arabia Saudi exports more to Egypt due to reduction of cost of Saudi imports from Kuwait and Bahrain Egypt exports more (imports less) due to reduction of cost of production in Egypt 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 -5000 -10000 Icr Scenario Net Preferred Scenario Net 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 -15000
  34. 34. COMPARING THE VARIOUS SCENARIOS
  35. 35. Comparison of the TOTAL NPV Capital Expenditure Costs 278,000 276,000 276,026 274,000 272,000 271,262 270,000 271,244 269,802 268,000 267,099 266,000 264,000 262,000 BAU Scenario IC Scenario ICr Scenario NG Scenario ICr & NG Scenario
  36. 36. Comparison of the Total NPV of Operation Costs (BUSD) 1120 6 11 1100 39 1080 70 1060 1,113 1,107 1,102 1040 1,073 1,043 1020 1000 BAU Scenario Total Scenarios IC Scenario Delta of IC Scenario ICr Scenario Delta of ICr Scenario NG Scenario Delta of NG Scenario ICr&NG Scenario Delta ICr&NG Scenario
  37. 37. NPV of Total Operating Costs 2012 - 2030 BAU Scenario IC Scenario ICr Scenario NG Scenario Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Sudan MUSD 32,599 64,671 19,488 55,160 226,617 12,894 MUSD 35,501 59,904 19,290 56,015 223,115 12,811 MUSD 36,268 59,980 19,430 57,259 222,527 12,740 MUSD 35,175 59,914 19,510 56,145 201,894 11,756 Preferred Scenario MUSD 36,203 60,030 19,381 57,476 205,004 12,077 Total North Africa Region and Sudan 411,430 406,636 408,203 384,394 390,171 Jordan Syria Lebanon Iraq 27,191 67,349 17,959 76,297 28,006 68,130 16,781 77,821 28,810 59,465 16,871 83,244 29,058 64,796 16,702 81,195 27,827 58,586 16,768 83,169 Total JSLI countries 188,795 190,739 188,390 191,751 186,350 Saudi_Arabia Kuwait Bahrain Qatar UAE_Abu_Dhabi Oman Yemen 411,151 111,672 21,340 23,474 98,218 24,166 22,790 404,442 100,932 23,565 27,321 101,652 24,392 21,701 402,129 98,302 19,814 29,527 103,696 24,846 21,684 373,971 92,004 19,795 27,272 102,001 21,993 20,793 400,636 91,441 17,049 29,826 104,620 24,137 21,657 Total GCC countries and Yemen 712,811 704,006 699,999 657,828 689,366 1,313 1,301 1,297 1,234 1,266 Country TOTAL OPEX of Arab Countries (BUSD)
  38. 38. CAPACITY OF POWER EXCHANGE MW 20,000 Total cross border NTC between Arab Countries 18,000 2300 2300 2300 2300 2300 2300 16,000 2300 2300 2300 2300 2300 400 14,000 400 400 5460 5460 5460 5460 5460 5460 3960 3960 3960 3960 3960 3960 3960 3960 12,000 1460 1460 10,000 8,000 6,000 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 4,000 2,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Existing Decided New
  39. 39. IF NUCLEAR AND RES ARE ASSUMED TO BE INSTALLED IN KSA Assumption 12,000 MW Nuclear ( 12 plants, each rated at 1,000 MW) 8,000 MW of PV (with capacities of 250 MW, 500 MW, and 750 MW) 15,000 MW of CSP (with capacities of 400 MW, 600 MW, and 1,000 MW)
  40. 40. IF NUCLEAR AND RES ARE ASSUMED TO BE INSTALLED IN KSA IMPACT ON GENERATION EXPANSION PROGRAM Capacity Factor MW Preferred 140,000 Nuclear + RES 2020 2025 2029 56.8% 55.5% 58.1% Cumulative Installed Capacities 57.6% 61.1% 61.4% 120,000 100,000 80,000 Addition of Nuclear 60,000 40,000 Effect of RES Units 20,000 Units with high generation capacities with low generation capacities 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Preferred scenario Nulcear+ RES Scenario
  41. 41. If Nuclear and Renewable Energy Sources in KSA Are Included in Model Year 2020 Jordan Jordan 1,792 2,011 1,590 11,714 10,188 0 Egypt KSA 8,542 1,894 All GCC 9,889 Yemen No Nuclear or RES Considered Egypt 0 KSA 9,203 All GCC 9,802 Yemen Both Nuclear and RES Considered
  42. 42. If Nuclear and Renewable Energy Sources in KSA Are Included in Model Year 2030 Jordan Jordan 588 11,152 Egypt 371 2,118 10,058 763 KSA All GCC 5,715 7,103 4,225 2,404 79 Yemen No Nuclear or RES Considered Egypt 870 KSA All GCC 7,719 6,196 4,372 1 Yemen Both Nuclear and RES Considered
  43. 43. RECAP OF THE STUDY Task 1 Data Collection Power Sector Data Collection Gas Sector Task 2 Existing and Planned Projects N & RES in Saudi Allow Energy to Flow on Tie Lines Task 3 BAU Scenario IC Scenario NG Scenario Gas reinforcement No Electrical reinforcement ICr Scenario Reinforce Electrical Network Sensitivity Analysis Lifting Moratorium on Gas Export in Qatar Preferred Scenario ICr + Selected NG Projects
  44. 44. RECAP OF THE STUDY Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 • • • Hour by Hour Modeling Power Flows Over Line Identify Bottlenecks inside countries’ networks Preferred Scenario Task 5 Financial study of the selected alternative and electricity pricing Task 6 Task 7 Bilateral multilateral trade model Implementation plan of the proposed projects
  45. 45. PREVIEW OF RESULTS OF TASK 4
  46. 46. PART II RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
  47. 47. ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW) Sudan Egypt Libya Existing Thermal New Thermal Hydro Tunisia RES Algeria Morocco 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
  48. 48. ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW) Iraq Lebanon Existing Thermal New Thermal Hydro Syria RES Jordan 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
  49. 49. ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW) Yemen Oman UAE-Abu Dhabi Existing Thermal Qatar New Thermal Hydro RES Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Arabia 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
  50. 50. EXPECTED FUTURE FOR RES IN THE ARAB WORLD Renewable (MW) Existing Installed Capacity at End of 2011(MW) Total (MW) Renewable as % of Total (MW) 1,365 178,705 0.76% 3,822 8,361 7,193 6,899 85,160 114,440 82,387 81,244 4.49% 7.31% 8.73% 8.49% 27,640 468,100 5.9% Capacity Added during Period     2012-2015 2016-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 Expected Total Installed Capacities by 2030 i.e. Total installed RES capacity will grow from less than 1% at end of 2011 to around 6% by end of 2030
  51. 51. FOR THE PERIOD 2012- 2030 ICr Scenario Preferred Scenario MW of RES to be added (MW) 27,790 27,790 % of New Generating Capacity 5.94% 5.93% GWH Produced from RES Sources 96,681 96,681 % of Energy Produced from All the New Generating Units 6.32% 6.33% Cost of New RES Generating Capacity ($ Million) 93,970 93,970 % of Total Cost of New Generating Capacity 17.80% 17.63%
  52. 52. WHICH MEANS • Out of total investments by the Arab countries, during the period 2012-2030, to increase the installed capacity of their generating units • Around 18% of that new investment will be to construct RES units • The RES installed generating units will represent • Around 8% of the installed capacity during the period 2012-2030 • In 2030, the RES generating units will produce • Around 5% of the energy produced during that year from all generating units added during the period 2012-2030
  53. 53. PART III IMPACT OF RES ON THE PAN-ARAB INTERCONNECTION GRID
  54. 54. POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THAT COULD ARISE DUE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF RES IN THE ARAB WORLD • • • • • Voltage Sags Operation Conflicts Interference with Relaying Sympathetic Tripping Harmonics
  55. 55. VOLTAGE SAGS Utility No Help Here Adjacent Customer RES May Help RES Facility How RES affects voltage Sags  The RES influence on sags at its own load is aided by the impedance of the service transformer, which provides some isolation from the source of the sag on the utility system.  However, this impedance hinders the ability of the RES to provide any relief to other loads on the same feeder.
  56. 56. OPERATION CONFLICTS Only this device must operate to clear fault feeders Breaker Recloser Fused Laterals Conflict between Distributed Generation and Re-closing  Reclosing utility breaker after a fault is a very common practice  Most of the transmission lines are overhead, and it is common to have temporary faults  Reclosing presents two special problems with respect to RES:  RES must disconnect early in the reclose interval to allow time for the arc to dissipate, so that the reclose will be successful  Reclosing on wind turbines, can cause damage to the generator or turbine
  57. 57. INTERFERENCE WITH RELAYING Normal Zone of Protection Reduced Zone of Protection Utility Breaker Fault Reduced Source Current Contribution Generator Infeed Reduction of Reach of Distance Relays due to the Presence of RES  RES infeed can reduce the reach of the utility relay  When the total RES capacity increases to a certain amount, the infeed into faults can desensitize the relays and leave remote sections of the feeder unprotected  A low amount (high impedance) fault near the end of the feeder is more likely to go undetected until it does sufficient damage to develop into a major fault
  58. 58. SYMPATHETIC TRIPPING 12.47 kV A Fault B 2-MW Wind Turbine Presence of RES may cause Sympathetic Tripping  Sympathetic tripping describes a condition where a breaker that does not see fault current trips "in sympathy" with the breaker that did  The most common circuit condition on utility distribution feeders is back feed into a ground fault  If the utility feeder breakers do not have directional sensing, the ground relay on feeder B will see the RES contribution as a fault and trip the breaker needlessly The main solution to the problem is to use directional overcurrent relaying
  59. 59. HARMONICS RES Flow of Third Harmonics in Delta-wye Transformers
  60. 60. POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THAT COULD ARISE DUE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF RES IN THE ARAB WORLD CONCLUSION Since the RES included in the study are not going to be in the form of distributed generation, but in the form of power plants, connected to the grid with step-up transformers, their effect on the transmission grids (and interconnection lines) should be minimal
  61. 61. SOME THOUGHTS ON SYSTEM STABILITY • In general, mitigating measures need to be taken if RES generating capacity reaches 25% of total installed capacity. • In preferred scenario, the percent of RES generation will only reach 6% of total installed capacity by 2030. • If KSA installs 23 GW of RES (8,000 MW PV and 15,000 MW CSP), the ratio of RES to total installed generating capacity will go up to around 11% (still safe). • The reserve generation margin, for all scenarios considered, does not drop below 15%, in any of the years studied. Therefore sudden loss of large amounts of wind or solar generating capacity should not be a major concern.
  62. 62. CONCLUSION • The PAI study could act as a road map for developing the electrical and gas infrastructures in the Arab world for the next two decades. • Renewable energy sources should play an increasing role in meeting the power and energy needs of the Arab world countries (from less than 1% currently to somewhere between 6 and 11% by 2030). • These ratios are still within safe limits : < 15% which is the reserve generation margin < 25% which is the universally accepted upper limit for the RES to total installed capacity • Even with the above, measures should be taken to mitigate any ill-effects that may arise.
  63. 63. Thank you For your patience

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