NEEAP ex-anti evaluation report

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Regional Workshop “NEEAP Development in the Arab region: Monitoring and Evaluation Methodology” December 11th, 2012

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NEEAP ex-anti evaluation report

  1. 1. NEEAP ex-ante Evaluation Report National Energy Efficiency Action Plan Monitoring and Evaluation Yemen,11 December 2012
  2. 2. Ex-ante Evaluation
  3. 3. Topics of the Presentation LebanonTarget Structure PalestineIndicative Targets EgyptSector Planning SudanTargets and Measures Planning
  4. 4. Target StructureOverview: Overall national indicative target Egypt Lebanon Palestine SudanKey indicators yes yes yes yesIndicative target yes yes yes yesCalculation methodology of the national indicative yes - yes yesenergy savings targetName of mandated national entity & contact person MoEE LCEC PEC ERA
  5. 5. Indicative Targets
  6. 6. Indicative Target - Macro 2020 Target Interim Target BaselineCountry Consumption GWh/5 years % GWh % GWh Target average yearEgypt 112162.8 - - 4.96 5565.69 2015Lebanon - 5 - - - -Palestine 4114 5 426 1 54 2013Sudan 6210 33 2029 12 775 2016
  7. 7. Indicative Target - Residential & Tertiary 2020 Target Interim Target Baseline Consumption Target CommentsCountry % GWh % GWh GWh/5 years year average Targets areEgypt 112162.8 - - 4.96 5565.69 2015 identical to the macro targets 5570 (buildings) 12 - Calculation ofLebanon 5 - 2013 targets is not 2500 (govern) - - clear 2880Palestine 6 363 1 38 2014 (buildings) 2649 117.68 1095 4.9 307 (residential)Sudan 2016 729.4 14 890 7 425 (government)
  8. 8. Indicative Target - Industrial 2020 Target Interim Target Baseline Consumption Target CommentsCountry % GWh % GWh GWh/5 years year average Egypt did notEgypt - - - - - - include industry sector at all Interim target isLebanon 3627 5 - 2 80 2013 % of baseline consumptionPalestine 370 2 19 1 5 2014 Target is expressed asSudan 768.4 0.95 - - 2016 enhancing power factor
  9. 9. Indicative Target - Utility 2020 Target Interim Target Baseline ConsumptionCountry Target GWh/5 years % GWh % GWh average yearEgypt - - - - - -Lebanon - - - - - -Palestine 823 3 42 1 11 2013Sudan - - - - - -
  10. 10. Indicative Target - Baseline ConsumptionFindingsWithout baseline consumption it is difficult to validate EE savingsPalestine has done the best job by providing baseline consumptionat the macro and sector specific level as wellSome macro level baseline consumption is identical to baselineconsumption indicated for residential & tertiary sector; in this case, itis not clear whether baseline consumption constitutes final electricityconsumption of the whole economy including industry and utilitysectors or only of residential & tertiary sectorbaseline consumption is also provided at the sector specific level,but target is not linked to the baseline consumption
  11. 11. Sectors Planning
  12. 12. Sectorial PlanningSectorial Planned and ongoing EE Egypt Lebanon Palestine Sudanmeasures for 2011-2013Sector 1 Residen Industries ResidenOverview table of EE measures 3 measures 2 measures 1 measureDetailed information of individual yes yes yesmeasuresSector 2 Public Buildings PublicOverview table of EE measures 3 measures 4 measures 1 measureDetailed information of individual yes yes yesmeasuresSector 3 Tourism Others IndustrialOverview table of EE measures 1 measure 1 measure 1 measureDetailed information of individual yes yesmeasures
  13. 13. Additional MeasuresAdditional measures Egypt Lebanon Palestine SudanPublic sector: exemplary role     public    sectOverview table of all EE measures     1    measureDetailed information of individual measures     yes  Utilities responsibilities utilities   utilies utilitiesOverview table of all EE measures 2 measures   4  8  measures measuresDetailed information of individual measures yes   - yesMeasures for power sector RE power   power  RE powerOverview table of all EE measures 12 measures   3  7  measures measuresDetailed information of individual measures yes   - yes
  14. 14. Supportive MeasuresHorizontal and cross-sectorial measures Egypt Lebanon Palestine SudanOverview table of all EE measures 1 measure   7    measuresDetailed information of individual measures -   yes  Supportive measures that difficult to quantify 7  5  6 measures   measures measuressavingsEE policy progress assessment        
  15. 15. Energy Savings Measures Egypt Lebanon Palestine SudanTotal number of measures 28 14 29 23Energy Saving Measures 9 5 12 11- All countries ensured the exemplary role of public Utilitysector by identifying measures in the governmentsector. Residential- None of the countries included measures onrestructuring electricity tariffs to promote EE in Tertiaryaccordance with Article IX of the Arab Guidelines. Industry
  16. 16. Targets and Measures Planning
  17. 17. Target and Measures PlanningFindingsSurprisingly all countries, except for Palestine chose not to includeutility or power sector in target setting, whereas almost all NEEAPscontain quite specific measures to improve energy efficiency indistribution and transmission networks with specific targets.Excluding utility sector from targets might create communicationproblems in the future because it is likely that countries will achievethe stated targets but not only because of measures in theresidential, tertiary and industrial sector, but also because of energyefficiency improvements in the utility sector. In such case it mightcreate difficulties in properly communicating, explaining andinterpreting the results.In all NEEAPs there is a correlation between target and individualmeasures in NEEAPs
  18. 18. Correlations- Examples  Expected Measure savings Calculation of savings GWh Program aims to increase awareness of energy  consumers in governmental buildings through:Rationalization (1)putting labels motivating energy conservation; of energy use in 46.6 (2)training workers; public buildings (3)recommending assigning responsible person;  (4)identifying opportunities for conserving electricity. Calculation of target is not presented:1.No specific government buildings are identified2.No current consumption of government buildings is presentedWithout such basic information it is difficult to monitor and verify thetarget.
  19. 19. Correlations- Examples Expected Measure savings Calculation of savings GWhPromotion of EE Initiative aims to promote EE equipmentequipment: initiative aims in residential and commercial buildingsat promoting EE equipment 38 by focusing on CFL, AC units, fridges….andin residential and establishing national EE standardcommercial buildingsThis measure is poorly drafted. Calculation of expected savings is not presented.So, it is not clear how the savings of 38 GWh/year is calculated•No specific appliances are identified•No information on current electricity consumption is presented (of currentappliances);•No target for market share of high-efficiency appliances is presentedSaving can be achieved only if high-efficiency household appliances are sold inthe market. Preparing standards is not enough; implementation needs to followwith certain target for market share.
  20. 20. Correlations- Examples Expected Measure savings Calculation of savings GWhNational awareness program onEE & RE in buildings: initiative Raising awareness about benefits of EE 3aims at promoting awareness measures.about energy conservationCalculation of expected energy savings is not presented. It is not clear how 3GWh are calculated.
  21. 21. Correlations- Examples Expected Measure savings Calculation of savings GWhTo improve power To oblige the factories owners to install equipment tofactor from 0.6-0.8 improve power factor by imposing tariffs of reactive energyto 0.95 on the loads by power factor less than 0.95. To raise tariff of KVARh. Power factor is calculated monthly for all plants. Apparent power is reduced to provide 1 mega watt by 200 KVA at improving the power factor from 0.8 to 0.95. Apparent power is reduced to provide 1 mega watt by 614 KVA when improving the power factor from 0.6 to 0.95 As the apparent power to provide 1 mega watt at power factor of 0.95 equals 1053 KVA and at power factor of 0.6 equals 1667 KVA.What are the savings of this measure? what shall be done?This a concept more than a measure
  22. 22. LebanonPalestine Egypt Sudan
  23. 23. Thank you MSc. Eng. Ashraf Kraidy Senior Expert Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE) Building of the Hydro Power Plants Execution Authority, 7th floor Ministry of Electricity and Energy Melsa District – Ardh El Golf Nasr City - Cairo, Egypt T. +2-02-24154691 F. +2-02-24154661 M. +2-01-11 0668503 E. ashraf.kraidy@rcreee.org ; w. www.rcreee.org

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