Utilitiesand Energy Management


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Description of societal trends and the relevancy to energy management. Some good, basic Toffler-like change concepts and scenarios.

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Utilitiesand Energy Management

  1. 1. Utilities and Energy Management We’re Members of a Larger System – The Global Community Technology, Energy Markets and Competition Affect Us Why Do We Need To Change???
  2. 2. Rate of Technical Progress <ul><li>The overall rate of technical progress is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; and the rate of that acceleration is itself growing exponentially. </li></ul><ul><li>So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would have occurred over the previous 200 centuries! </li></ul>
  3. 3. MegaTrends - Technology <ul><li>80% of the world’s technological advances have occurred since 1900 </li></ul><ul><li>More information was produced between 1965 and 1995 than in the entire 5,000-year period from 3000 B.C. to 1965. </li></ul><ul><li>20 years ago there were 50,000 computers; that number is now being installed daily. </li></ul><ul><li>The average person in the West interacts with microchips about 300 times per day. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Mega Trends - Technology <ul><li>Web browsers expand in variety and functionality, driving communications between customers and suppliers. </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel cells to grow in abundance, beginning first with applications in industrial equipment and recreational vehicles, and proceeding to propel passenger vehicles around 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Quantum computing becomes a reality, allowing for workstations with the power of a Cray supercomputer. </li></ul>
  5. 5. MegaTrends – Digital and Communications Overload <ul><li>100 million cell phones in North America </li></ul><ul><li>46,000 people sign up each day for cell phone service </li></ul><ul><li>10 billion email messages are exchanged each day (expected to grow to 35 billion in 3 – 5 years) </li></ul><ul><li>Time on web rivals time in front of television </li></ul><ul><li>Research shows: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>59% check office voice mail after work hours </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>30% accept work faxes at home </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>29% can’t leave home without cell phones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>39% will answer cell phone in bathroom </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. MegaTrends – World of Work <ul><li>85% of all U.S. organizations now outsource services once performed in-house </li></ul><ul><li>Over 45% of American companies have reduced their workforces every year since 1990 </li></ul><ul><li>More Americans </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Make computers than all forms of transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Work in accounting firms than in the whole energy industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Work in biotechnology than machine tools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Work in the movie industry than the automotive industry </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. MegaTrends – Use of Time <ul><li>A generation ago the average person had a 100,000-hour working life </li></ul><ul><li>Today, we can do everything that person did in 10,000 hours. </li></ul><ul><li>In the next generation, people will be able to do it in 1,000 hours. </li></ul>
  8. 8. The 21 st Century Worker <ul><li>Alvin Toffler, Futurist & Author: </li></ul><ul><li>“ The illiterate of the 21 st Century will not be those who cannot read or write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn .” </li></ul>
  9. 9. Labor Force Growth Rates by Race 2002 - 2012
  10. 10. Meet Your Global Village The breakdown of a hypothetical “global” village of 100 persons <ul><li>57 Asians 21 Europeans; 14 from the Western Hemisphere, both north and south 8 Africans 52 would be female 48 would be male 70 would be non-white 30 would be white 70 would be non-Christian 30 would be Christian 89 would be heterosexual 11 would be homosexual 6 people from US would possess 59% of the entire world's wealth 80 would live in substandard housing 70 would be unable to read 50 would suffer from malnutrition 1 would be near death; 1 would be near birth 1 ( yes, only 1 ) would have a college education 1 would own a computer </li></ul>
  11. 11. Energy Consumption Projections
  12. 12. Coal Trends <ul><li>Higher natural gas and oil prices, and above average temperatures boosting coal consumption and prices </li></ul>
  13. 13. Technology Depends on Fossil Fuels <ul><li>Constructing……. </li></ul><ul><li>an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 27 barrels of oil. </li></ul><ul><li>32MB DRAM chip requires 3.5 lbs of fossil fuels in addition to 70.5 lbs of water. </li></ul><ul><li>An average desktop computer consumes ten times it weight in fossil fuels. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Consolidation of Water Utilities <ul><li>Water is the most fragmented industry in the U.S. utility sector </li></ul><ul><li>50,000 water utilities, with only 1% serving more than 100,000 customers </li></ul><ul><li>Less than 15% are privately held </li></ul><ul><li>Industry very inefficient - and ripe for consolidation for the following reasons: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More stringent drinking water standards from EPA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reliability standards by state public service commissions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Seller’s need for cash </li></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 15. MegaTrends – Utilities Increasing Demands and Limited Resources <ul><li>California, Florida, and Hawaii have begun to address water scarcity through recycling. </li></ul><ul><li>In California, municipal wastewater recycling is expected to reach one million acre-feet by the year 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Reclaimed water accounts for approximately 40 percent of Florida’s total water flow </li></ul>
  16. 16. MegaTrends – Utilities More Stringent Regulations <ul><li>Surface and drinking water quality have dramatically improved over the last 30 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Future challenges…….polluted runoff, landscape modification, changes to water flow, airborne pollutants, and aging infrastructure. </li></ul><ul><li>As water reclamation and reuse increases to address scarcity, effluent limits are expected to tighten in response. </li></ul><ul><li>The sale of bottled water reached $9 billion in 2003, or # 2 in revenues in beverage industry. </li></ul>
  17. 17. MegaTrends – Utilities Pending Financial Crisis <ul><li>The estimated investment costs for water and wastewater over the next 20 years range from $500 to $800 billion. </li></ul><ul><li>The average public water utility currently has a competitive gap of 19 percent. </li></ul><ul><li>In other words, the private sector has the potential to operate, maintain, and administer a public utility at 19 percent less cost than the current operator. </li></ul>
  18. 18. Clean Energy – Five Key Trends
  19. 19. General Electric Commits to Clean Energy
  20. 20. General Electric’s Commitment The Particulars <ul><li>May 9, 2005 Jeff Immelt, CEO of GE, announces that the firm is hitching its future to the growth of clean energy. </li></ul><ul><li>GE has named its commitment “ecomagination.” </li></ul><ul><li>Plans to double its R&D in clean energy to $1.5B in 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Projects $20B in clean tech revenues by 2010. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Migration Toward Clean Technology <ul><li>What is Clean Technology? </li></ul><ul><li>Products, Services and Processes that: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Harness renewable materials and energy sources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dramatically reduce the use of natural resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>While reducing or eliminating emissions and wastes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>These include such technologies as fuel cells, hybrid electric vehicles, green chemistry, and solar/wind power. </li></ul>
  22. 22. MegaTrends – Clean Energy
  23. 23. Clean Energy Trend # 1 <ul><li>Fuels from biomass grow like a weed </li></ul><ul><li>Bio-diesel sales quadruple in 05 to 125 million gallons. </li></ul><ul><li>Near price parity with conventional diesel. </li></ul><ul><li>Senate passed bill requiring an 8 billion gallon renewable fuels standard by 2012. </li></ul>
  24. 24. Clean Energy Trend # 2 <ul><li>Energy efficiency becomes big business </li></ul><ul><li>18 states currently spend $1B annually on efficiency R & D programs. </li></ul><ul><li>General Electric’s Global Research awarded federal contract to improve industrial motor efficiencies. </li></ul>
  25. 25. Clean Energy Trend # 3 <ul><li>Concentrating solar power heats up </li></ul><ul><li>Coalition of western states planning to install 1,000 MW of concentrating solar power (CSP) </li></ul><ul><li>DOE’s goal is to cut cost of power generation via solar to $.07KW/h </li></ul><ul><li>Sandia National Labs, the University of Nevada, and General Atomics researching the use of CSP to produce hydrogen for fuel cells. </li></ul>
  26. 26. Clean Energy Trend # 4 <ul><li>Hydrogen infrastructure begins to emerge </li></ul><ul><li>California’s highway hydrogen initiative slated to yield 150 to 200 fueling stations by 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Mitsubishi recently launched a Vancouver-based spin-off to make hydrogen fuel-production systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Toyota’s new president, Katsuaki Watanabe, plans to make development of fuel-efficient and environmental friendly vehicles one of his top priorities (Wall Street Journal/6/28/05) </li></ul>
  27. 27. Clean Energy Trend # 5 <ul><li>Green building constructs a solid foundation </li></ul><ul><li>80% surveyed by Turner Construction said lower energy and operations outlays recoup any additional costs of green building. </li></ul><ul><li>170 commercial buildings certified as “green” since 98 and 1,700 have applied. </li></ul><ul><li>About 24% of the new homes certified as green have been built just since 04 </li></ul><ul><li>Huge focus for future since buildings consume 39% of energy used in U.S. </li></ul>
  28. 28. How Will These Trends and Changes Impact Us? <ul><li>Business will need to be as unusual </li></ul><ul><li>If it’s not broken; then let’s improve it </li></ul><ul><li>Unlearn, learn and relearn </li></ul><ul><li>Be resilient and quick to adapt </li></ul><ul><li>Continue to operate as a high reliability organization to add predictability and stability to an uncertain environment </li></ul><ul><li>Other impacts?? </li></ul>