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Carpenter Reports Q3 2012

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3rd Quarter 2012 Update on the Central Indiana Real Estate Market

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Carpenter Reports Q3 2012

  1. 1. Carpenter Reports The Central Indiana Real Estate Market 3rd Quarter 2012callcarpenter.com
  2. 2. Is The Momentum in Housing Slowing? October, 2012The momentum in the central Indiana housing market continued through the third quarter of 2012 but at a slower pace.The good news is that the inventory levels, numbers of houses on the market, have continued to decline, down 12.7%year-over-year. That’s good news. Fewer houses on the market means stronger prices. We suspect the decline inbank-owned (foreclosed) properties hitting the market continues to drive this decline. Again, good news.The increased sales activity in housing continues from earlier quarters as well albeit a bit slower. Pended Sales were up7% year-over-year for the third quarter. That is a bit slower than the 9.2% we saw in the second quarter and the 13.2%in the first quarter.We saw Closed Units, homes that have pended and closed, increase by 10.9% year-over-year in the third quarter.While that’s good, it does reflect a decline from the 13.9% increase in the second quarter and the 13.6% in the firstquarter of 2012. Again, indicating a possible slowdown in the momentum of the housing recovery in central Indiana.The year-over-year Average Sales Price (ASP) is slightly down, and the current actual ASP slipped from $160,484 in thesecond quarter to $154,026 in the third quarter.It’s too early to tell, but this apparent pause in the momentum experienced earlier in the year may well be in reactionto the pending elections and the uncertainty of the year-end “fiscal cliff.”As I am writing this summary, I note that the September Consumer Confidence Index report showed a strong increaseto over 70. This is the highest level year-to-date. That’s a positive indicator for housing. In addition, an early look athomes pended in central Indiana for the first ten days in October shows the strongest level of seasonally adjustedactivity since April of 2010 when we saw the last of the Federal housing incentives. Both of these may well indicatethe pause in the third quarter of 2012 was short-lived and the housing recovery is building momentum again incentral Indiana.The next issue of Carpenter Reports is out in early January. By then, we’ll be able to quantify the impact of both theelections and the pending “fiscal cliff” on home buyers in central Indiana. Hindsight will provide us a clear view of what’sahead. We’ll just have to wait and see. Warm Regards, David Caveness Senior Vice President Carpenter Realtors® caveness@callcarpenter.com
  3. 3. Central Indiana Summary Unit Change % Change 3 rd Qtr ‘11 3 rd Qtr ‘12 2011-2012 2011-2012 Units Closed 6,418 8,536 +699 +10.9% Units Pending 6,250 6,686 +436 +7.0% Listing Inventory Units 13,643 11,914 -1,729 -12.7% Average Sale Price $158,288 $154,026 -$4,262 -2.7% (closed Units) Avg. Price per sq.ft. $83.30 $80.64 -$2.66 -3.2% Average Residential Sale Price - Closed Units DOLLAR Change % Change County 3 rd Qtr ‘11 3 rd Qtr ‘12 2011-2012 2011-2012 Boone $247,787 $254,313 +$6,526 +2.6% Hamilton $253,653 $244,147 -$9,506 -3.7% Hancock $136,178 $143,590 +$7,412 +5.4% Hendricks $160,501 $155,365 -$5,136 -3.2% Johnson $152,926 $158,270 +$5,344 +3.5% Madison $81,514 $76,427 -$5,087 -6.2% Marion $121,703 $124,317 +$2,614 +2.1% Montgomery $89,959 $101,889 +$11,930 +13.3% Morgan $136,775 $138,142 +$1,367 +1.0% Putnam $122,519 $126,748 +$4,229 +3.5% Shelby $101,189 $108,217 -$7,028 +7.0% TOTALS $158,288 $154,026 -$4,262 -2.7%page 3
  4. 4. Pending Residential Sales - Units Unit Change % Change County 3rd Qtr ‘11 3rd Qtr ‘12 2011-2012 2011-2012 Boone 217 247 +30 +13.8% Hamilton 1,169 1,402 +233 +19.9% Hancock 248 235 -13 -5.2% Hendricks 550 571 +21 +3.8% Johnson 508 520 +12 +2.4% Madison 292 415 +123 +42.1% Marion 2,763 2,699 -64 -2.3% Montgomery 126 123 -3 -2.4% Morgan 204 229 +25 +12.3% Putnam 69 121 +52 +75.4% Shelby 104 124 +20 +19.2% TOTALS 6,250 6,686 +436 +7.0% Unit Change % Change marion twps 3 rd Qtr ‘11 3rd Qtr ‘12 2011-2012 2011-2012 Center NE 144 185 +41 +28.5% Center SE 102 108 +6 +5.9% Decatur 109 115 +6 +5.5% Franklin 218 231 +13 +6.0% Lawrence 316 393 +77 +24.4% Perry 297 333 +36 +12.1% Pike 240 242 +2 +0.8% Warren 295 307 +12 +4.1% Washington 442 447 +5 +1.1% Wayne 293 338 +45 +15.4% TOTALS 2,763 2,699 -64 -2.3%page 4
  5. 5. Listing Inventory Units County Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2012 Unit Change % Change Boone 577 500 -77 -13.3% Hamilton 2,429 2,005 -424 -17.5% Hancock 568 497 -71 -12.5% Hendricks 1,121 1,064 -57 -5.1% Johnson 1,047 891 -156 -14.9% Madison 807 760 -47 -5.8% Marion 5,650 4,849 -801 -14.2% Montgomery 280 270 -10 -3.6% Morgan 569 538 -31 -5.4% Putnam 297 276 -21 -7.1% Shelby 298 264 -34 -11.4% TOTALS 13,643 11,914 -1,729 -12.7% Marion TWPs Oct 1, 2011 Oct 1, 2012 Unit ChangE % Change Center NE 530 465 -65 -12.3% Center SE 299 265 -34 -11.4% Decatur 234 176 -58 -24.8% Franklin 458 446 -12 -2.6% Lawrence 785 707 -78 -9.9% Perry 630 503 -127 -20.2% Pike 491 431 -60 -12.2% Warren 689 620 -69 -10.0% Washington 830 668 -162 -19.5% Wayne 704 568 -136 -19.3% TOTALS 5,650 4,849 -801 -14.2%page 5
  6. 6. Average Sales Price Per Sq. Ft. Average sale PRICE per $/sq.ft. County 3rd Qtr ‘11 3rd Qtr ‘12 yr. over yr. Boone $106.48 $105.61 -0.8% Hamilton $103.74 $103.41 -0.3% Hancock $70.56 $70.66 +0.1% Hendricks $79.18 $76.27 -3.7% Johnson $79.86 $80.02 +0.2% Madison $48.78 $46.63 -4.4% Marion $70.59 $72.36 +2.5% Montgomery $53.17 $61.60 +15.9% Morgan $75.57 $78.45 +3.8% Putnam $71.27 $75.49 +5.9% Shelby $61.59 $62.05 +0.8% TOTALS $83.30 $80.64 -3.2% Average sale PRICE per $/sq.ft. Marion TWPs 3rd Qtr ‘11 3rd Qtr ‘12 yr. over yr. Center NE $63.30 $72.53 +14.6% Center SE $37.63 $39.12 3.9% Decatur $52.04 $53.73 +3.3% Franklin $64.16 $70.85 +10.4% Lawrence $78.54 $81.26 +3.5% Perry $60.94 $63.11 +3.6% Pike $68.85 $66.52 -3.4% Warren $45.88 $49.71 +8.4% Washington $106.53 $106.54 +0.0% Wayne $47.40 $48.66 +2.7% TOTALS $70.59 $72.36 +2.5% Note: These statistics are compiled by Carpenter Realtors® from data provided by the Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors® through the BLC. While deemed reliable, neither Carpenter Realtors® nor the Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors® guarantees the accuracy of the data or the analysis. “Homes Pended” means property was placed under contract to sell, but not necessarily yet closed. “Homes Pended”is used in the report to provide a more current measure of market conditions. Marion County data includes partial data for Center Township. Listing inventory data represents single family homes only. Founded in 1970, Carpenter Realtors® is one of Indiana’s largest residential real estate companies with 30 branch locations and nearly 600 sales associates serving 13 central Indiana counties.page 6

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