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CrystalBall in New Product Development

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Three cases where ORACLE Crystal Ball was used effectively to enhance the product development cycle, including financial benefits.

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CrystalBall in New Product Development

  1. 1. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />1<br />Name: Ramon (Ray) Balisnomo<br />Title/Position: Design for Six Sigma Instructor/Engr.<br />Company: Ingersoll Rand Securities Technologies<br />CONTACT INFORMATION:<br />E-mail: ramon_balisnomo@irco.com<br /> rbalisnomo@gmail.com<br />Telephone: 719-896-3604<br />
  2. 2. Analyzing test lab data<br />Exercise 1 of 3<br />Establishing Product Performance Targets<br />1<br />R Balisnomo<br />3/3/2010<br />
  3. 3. R Balisnomo<br />3<br />3/3/2010<br />
  4. 4. 4<br />R Balisnomo<br />3/3/2010<br />
  5. 5. R Balisnomo<br />5<br />Right-click your mouse button<br />3/3/2010<br />
  6. 6. R Balisnomo<br />6<br />3/3/2010<br />
  7. 7. R Balisnomo<br />7<br />Objectives:<br />How hard should the face plate be for maximum strength?<br />What is certainty that the deadbolt will tolerate 4,150 ft-lbs of force?<br />Strength Frame machine was used for measuring the pull strength.<br />3/3/2010<br />
  8. 8. R Balisnomo<br />8<br />3/3/2010<br />
  9. 9. R Balisnomo<br />9<br />3/3/2010<br />
  10. 10. R Balisnomo<br />10<br />3/3/2010<br />
  11. 11. R Balisnomo<br />11<br />3/3/2010<br />
  12. 12. R Balisnomo<br />12<br />Let:<br /><ul><li>T = Target Value for Hardness
  13. 13. T = Min + Adjustment
  14. 14. Adjustment < Range
  15. 15. Y = predicted pull strength @ T</li></ul>Then, <br />Y = -113.23T2+ 9510.1T - 195486<br />3/3/2010<br />
  16. 16. R Balisnomo<br />13<br />40.9<br />3/3/2010<br />4065<br />
  17. 17. R Balisnomo<br />14<br />3/3/2010<br />
  18. 18. R Balisnomo<br />15<br />3/3/2010<br />
  19. 19. R Balisnomo<br />16<br />Min X<br />Max X<br />3/3/2010<br />
  20. 20. R Balisnomo<br />17<br />Optimal Y<br />Adjustment <[Max-Min]<br />Min X<br />Target Value<br />Max X<br />3/3/2010<br />
  21. 21. R Balisnomo<br />18<br />Performance Goal<br />Optimal Y<br />Adjustment <[Max-Min]<br />Min X<br />Target Value<br />Max X<br />3/3/2010<br />
  22. 22. R Balisnomo<br />19<br />3/3/2010<br />
  23. 23. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />20<br />
  24. 24. R Balisnomo<br />21<br />3/3/2010<br />
  25. 25. R Balisnomo<br />22<br />3/3/2010<br />
  26. 26. R Balisnomo<br />23<br />3/3/2010<br />
  27. 27. R Balisnomo<br />24<br />3/3/2010<br />
  28. 28. R Balisnomo<br />25<br />3/3/2010<br />
  29. 29. R Balisnomo<br />26<br />Answers:<br />How hard should the face plate be for maximum strength? 42.0 Rockwell C for an expected pull strength of 4,200 ft-lbs.<br />What is certainty that the deadbolt will tolerate 4,150 ft-lbs of force? 99.84% @ 42.0 Rockwell C<br />Strength Frame machine was used for measuring the pull strength.<br />3/3/2010<br />
  30. 30. R Balisnomo<br />27<br />ORACLE Crystal Ball is needed in new product development because:<br />Errors are inherent in all predictive models (e.g., Linear Regression or Design of Experiments). We need a tool for modeling them (risks) so that our new products perform as expected.<br />Often times we are searching for that “Sweet Spot” or Optimal Point that lets our product perform at its peak best.<br />We want to know the probability of success (or failure) associated with our design or performance goals.<br />3/3/2010<br />
  31. 31. Linear statistical stack-ups<br />Exercise 2 of 3<br />Robust Tolerance Design <br />2<br />R Balisnomo<br />3/3/2010<br />
  32. 32. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />29<br />Schlage ND-Series Heavy Duty Commercial Cylindrical Lever Lock<br /><br />Based on the survey response of 107 customers in July 2009<br />
  33. 33. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />30<br />+40 interdependent critical dimensions in the ND Lock<br />
  34. 34. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />31<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />USL = 0.02<br />USL = 0<br />
  35. 35. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />32<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />USL = 0.02<br />Horizontal<br />USL = 0<br />
  36. 36. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />33<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />Horizontal<br />USL = 0<br />USL = 0.03<br />Axial<br />
  37. 37. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />34<br />Use Copy & Paste for Horizontal & Axial, but don’t forget to change USL=0.03 for Axial<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />USL = 0.02<br />USL = 0<br />
  38. 38. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />35<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />USL = 0.02<br />USL = 0<br />
  39. 39. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />36<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />USL = 0.02<br />Horizontal<br />USL = 0<br />
  40. 40. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />37<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />Horizontal<br />USL = 0<br />USL = 0.03<br />Axial<br />
  41. 41. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />38<br />Financial Analysis of Wobble Problem<br />
  42. 42. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />39<br />
  43. 43. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />40<br />
  44. 44. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />41<br />
  45. 45. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />42<br />
  46. 46. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />43<br />
  47. 47. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />44<br />
  48. 48. R Balisnomo<br />45<br />3/3/2010<br />
  49. 49. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />46<br />Before  After OptQuest<br /> 2% improvement<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />USL = 0.02<br />USL = 0<br />
  50. 50. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />47<br />Before  After OptQuest<br /> 2% improvement<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />USL = 0.02<br />Horizontal<br />USL = 0<br />
  51. 51. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />48<br />Before  After OptQuest<br /> 73% improvement<br />Vertical<br />Technical<br />Definition<br />of Wobble<br />Horizontal<br />USL = 0<br />USL = 0.03<br />Axial<br />
  52. 52. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />49<br />Financial Analysis of Wobble Problem<br />
  53. 53. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />50<br />Optional Step: If you only want to run 1 out of 4 possible Forecast (Outputs)<br />
  54. 54. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />51<br />99% @ $394 <br />88% @ $900<br />A<br />D<br />86% @ $957 <br />E<br />95% @ $634<br />B<br />-$380<br />82% @ $1062<br />F<br />90% @ $835<br />C<br />Which<br />Horse<br />Would You<br />Bet On?<br />
  55. 55. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />52<br />99% Certain we can save at least $394K by changing the nominal drawing dimensions.<br />
  56. 56. R Balisnomo<br />53<br />ORACLE Crystal Ball® is needed in new product development because:<br />When it comes to tolerance stack-ups1 there is no better tool for optimizing fit and function. Humans typically cannot simultaneously adjust +40 interdependent variables at the same time.<br />It’s exponentially easier to fix the problem in the Design Phase then it is to fix the problem once the product has launched. <br />It’s a good tool for translating quality and engineering terms into language finance and management can understand.<br />3/3/2010<br />1. note: Cartesian -- not GD&T<br />
  57. 57. Efficient Frontier<br />Exercise 3 of 3<br />Cost Versus Quality<br />3<br />R Balisnomo<br />3/3/2010<br />
  58. 58. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />55<br />3. Extract Current <br /> Security Control Key <br />2. Rotate 30 Degrees CCW<br />NEW<br />4. Insert New <br /> Security Control Key <br />5. Rotate back to home position<br />The New Way to Rekey a Lock<br />1. Insert Current<br /> Security Control Key<br />NEW<br />
  59. 59. A<br />E<br />D<br />C<br />B<br />56<br />R Balisnomo<br />3/3/2010<br />
  60. 60. R Balisnomo<br />57<br />1 = choose this supplier to make this part<br />0 = do NOT choose this supplier<br />3/3/2010<br />Key:<br />
  61. 61. R Balisnomo<br />58<br /><ul><li>“Best” Supplier
  62. 62. Cpk = 1.75 (99.99%)
  63. 63. Unit Cost = $3.49
  64. 64. “Cheap” Supplier
  65. 65. Cpk = 0.59 (60.64%)
  66. 66. Unit Cost = $0.99</li></ul>3/3/2010<br />
  67. 67. 59<br />R Balisnomo<br />3/3/2010<br />
  68. 68. 60<br />R Balisnomo<br />3/3/2010<br />
  69. 69. 61<br />R Balisnomo<br />Objective:<br />If the requirement is 0.5<Cpk < 0.9, find the lowest cost supplier(s)<br />If the requirement is 0.9<Cpk < 1.3, find the lowest cost supplier(s)<br />If the requirement is 1.3<Cpk < 1.7, find the lowest cost supplier(s)<br />If the requirement is Cpk > 1.7, find the lowest cost supplier(s)<br />3/3/2010<br />
  70. 70. 62<br />R Balisnomo<br />3/3/2010<br />
  71. 71. 63<br />R Balisnomo<br />The model does not know that only one of the four suppliers can produce each part. We have to specify this constraint into the analysis.<br />3/3/2010<br />
  72. 72. 64<br />R Balisnomo<br />This constraint only allows one supplier out of four to produce each part.<br />3/3/2010<br />
  73. 73. 65<br />R Balisnomo<br />Due to time constraints, we may be running the optimization for a much-less time (only 3-5 minutes); thus, your actual results may vary from this presentation.<br />3/3/2010<br />
  74. 74. R Balisnomo<br />66<br />1,135 simulations @ 10,000 runs per simulation (11,350,000 data points) in 10 minutes, or 18,917 data points per second. <br />3/3/2010<br />
  75. 75. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />67<br />
  76. 76. R Balisnomo<br />68<br />3/3/2010<br />
  77. 77. R Balisnomo<br />69<br />3/3/2010<br />
  78. 78. R Balisnomo<br />70<br />3/3/2010<br />
  79. 79. R Balisnomo<br />71<br />3/3/2010<br />
  80. 80. 72<br />R Balisnomo<br />(1.72, $3.44)<br />(1.35, $2.55)<br />(0.92, $1.62)<br />(0.59, $0.99)<br />Trade-off Curve between Quality and Unit Cost.<br />Due to a shorter number of runs, your results may vary from what is being shown here.<br />3/3/2010<br />
  81. 81. R Balisnomo<br />73<br />3/3/2010<br />
  82. 82. R Balisnomo<br />74<br />ORACLE Crystal Ball® is needed in new product development because:<br />The trade-offs between RISK and REWARD are difficult to quantify. Efficient Frontiers is a tool that specializes in the above.<br />Simple YES/NO or GO/STOP decisions become complex in the face of so many combinations and permutations. Sometimes it’s better to let the a Computer make the long-term business decisions.<br />We can make a lot of money by solving big and difficult problems in a short amount of time.<br />3/3/2010<br />
  83. 83. 3/3/2010<br />R Balisnomo<br />75<br />The End<br />Do you have any questions?<br />Name: Ramon (Ray) Balisnomo<br />Title/Position: Design for Six Sigma Instructor/Engr.<br />Company: Ingersoll Rand Securities Technologies<br />CONTACT INFORMATION:<br />E-mail: ramon_balisnomo@irco.com<br /> rbalisnomo@gmail.com<br />Telephone: 719-896-3604<br />

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