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Election prediction: NDP vs. PC Party for Ontario 2018

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Our AI platform Auris has helped garner insights in the penultimate week to the elections. Our prediction - NDP is winning the province in this intense battle.

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Election prediction: NDP vs. PC Party for Ontario 2018

  1. 1. INSIGHTS ON THE VOICE OF THE VOTER IN ONTARIO (MAY 4TH 2018)
  2. 2. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in 1st week of June 2018 Ajax—Pickering ● Schedule 14 of the budget ● ‘Back room deals’ allegedly done by Kathleen Wynne ● Need to protect Casino Ajax to keep jobs and taxes ● Help to remove algae at the waterfront ● Need to protect headwaters of Caruthers Creek ● Discussion around the transit policy. Some questions on whether budgets are enough for implementation of the transit policy ● Undecided voters. Supporters of NDP and Liberals haven’t met their candidates ● Debate evenly balanced across NDP, PC Party and Liberals ● Sentiment turning towards NDP. ● Criticism around “un- costed platform” ● Negative feedback on “beer for a buck” and its likely extension to cannabis. ● Some favors for reduced gas pricing. Aurora - PC Party being perceived as “Right- leaning” - Some negative buzz - Leaning towards NDP. - Negative perceptions around PC Party continues.
  3. 3. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues in the 1st week of June 2018 Barrie - Discussions around nominations – buzz about process issues around the 11 candidates - Integrity Commissions’ report on Patrick Brown – buzz for and against the findings. - DFO funding for Autism, - Raising ODSP, streamlining passport Funding - Kathleen Wynne’s ad and response (mostly negative) - Carbon Tax – buzz in support of removing the same - Dan Janssen’s comments on Doug Ford (“Change for the worse”) - Illegal immigrants - Positive buzz around the proposed concrete barriers along Highway 401 - Demand for all day GO for Barrie - Need for more trains between Barrie and Toronto to rid people of congestion on 400 - Positive response for getting rid of rent control - Need to hasten Booming Barrie service - Dissent on the departure of Patrick Brown. Air time around Patrick Brown is leading to issues. - Perception of the PC Party being for the rich and the millionaires - “Buck a beer” promise being seen as frivolous and a distraction from real issues - Perception about PC Party leadership being sexist or racist in general (“Rightist” perception) - Support for low gas prices, better transit - Perceptions around the deficits the Liberals are running - Perceptions that the socialist agenda might take a back seat - Buzz around Ford’s promise related to the destruction of Ontario Greenbelt which allows oil pipeline from Barrie to Oshawa - Intense fight. Negative buzz for the PC Party. - “Buck a beer” vs. high rents an issue - Negative buzz related to Patrick Brown continues.
  4. 4. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Bay of Quinte - Perceptions that PC Party leadership will lead to a lack of focus on climate change - Balanced buzz for and against - Leaning towards NDP - Negative buzz around PC Party’s Doug Ford. Beaches – East York - Leaning towards NDP. Perceived as only one to stop Doug Ford. Brampton North - Support for NDP - Scandal against nominee leading to negative buzz against the PC Party Brampton Centre - Positive buzz around Harjit Jaswal’s nomination win - Leaning towards PC Party Brampton —East - Buzz around Doug Ford’s campaign supporting Simmer Sandhu - Some negative buzz around the PC Party candidates history with the CRA - Unhappiness around the candidate - Intense battle, but leaning towards NDP Brampton- South - - Positive buzz around the PC Party candidate Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria - Leaning towards PC Party Brant - Discussion around the proposed reforms in education – scrapping of “discovery math”.. - Some negative buzz around Doug Ford dodging questions from journalists - Buzz against PC Party - Some negative buzz around PC Party’s interaction with journalists. Some damage continues.
  5. 5. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Bruce— Grey— Owen Sound - Hydro One’s high charges - Carbon tax - Kathleen Wynne’s “smearing video” as an ad – “The Real Doug Ford” – some negative buzz in there. - NDP’s dental care plan – support for that - Perception around “Zero income tax” will leave lowest paid workers worse off - Appreciation for how Doug Ford has dealt with the “mess” around nominations, increased membership - Buzz around the proposed Transit plan - Economic viability of delivering on subway promise. - Citizens want Doug Ford to clean up the mess of Kathleen Wynne (healthcare, Hydro salaries) - Voices on lack of concern for climate change - Negative buzz around truncated scrum Q&A session by Doug Ford - Negative buzz around permanent closure of a public library “in the name of efficiency” - Support from Hydro Employees - Sex education – buzz in support and opposition to the fact that this would be diluted. Mostly a positive buzz. - Negative perception about the PC Party tolerating racism - Accountability for Regional Autism service - Negative buzz overall - Concerns about lack of a vision for healthcare - Positive buzz for the NDP - Some negative buzz around the “beer availability” promise - seems to be perceived as frivolous - Leaning towards NDP. - Negative buzz for Doug Ford around various things, including the law suit by Renate Ford, Rob Ford’s widow
  6. 6. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Burlington - Concerns about high Hydro bills - Negative buzz around Two- Tier Health Care discussion by Dr. Merrilee Fullerton - Positive buzz for the PC Party - NDP perceived as “communist” - Evenly balanced between PC Party & NDP Cambridge - Demand for a Cambridge GO Train - Issue around unfair practices by the Toyota dealership - Positive buzz around Liberals’ move to give the autoplant $200 million to make them stay in the riding. - Buzz against NDP - Perception that their programs will cost the tax payers dear - Buzz of unions supporting NDP - Leaning towards NDP - Positives emerging for NDP party. Contest balancing out between PC Party and NDP Carleton— Mississippi Mills - Negative perception about PC Party’s healthcare policies - Negative buzz around Dr. Merrilee Fullerton - Positive buzz around educational reforms w.r.t. Carleton University. - Perception that Liberals are making students communist! - Negative perceptions around PC Party candidates denial of climate change. - Negative perception around NDP’s plan to move the money for upgrading Highway 417 and investing in bike lanes - NDP – PC Party seems to be an even contest - NDP emerging as the winner here - Negative buzz around PC Party’s candidate. - Buzz against non- conservatives running as PC Party candidates
  7. 7. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Chatham- Kent—Essex - Positive buzz around the proposed concrete barriers along Highway 401 - NDP Party catching up in terms of positive buzz and campaign momentum - Leaning towards NDP Don Valley West - Leaning towards PC Party Dufferin— Caledon - Demand for interventions related to the GTA West Corridor - Positive buzz in support to promised reforms in sex- education - Positive buzz around accountability - Advantage PC Party - Negative comments around PC Party emerging. Contest balancing out. Durham - Support to fight Carbon tax - Buzz around the proposed commission of enquiry into Government spending - Protest against appointment of Tory candidates - Negative perception around PC Party’s healthcare plan - Sex education changes – buzz for and against - Buzz against the NDP around the likely closure of the nuclear plan leading to job cuts. Corresponding positive buzz for PC Party’s stand of savings jobs. - Negative buzz for PC Party for being a white supremacist - Leaning towards NDP - Negative buzz around PC Party emerging. Contest balancing out but advantage PC Party. - Negative buzz continues Etobicoke North - Negative buzz around alleged racist remarks by Liberal MPP candidate Shafiq Qaadri (“there are just too many white people in the Ontario Government”) - Tight race between NDP and PC Party - Buzz around people asking for the PC Party’s platform for the election in the riding - Perception that PC Party is the party for the rich - Perception that Doug Ford losing his own riding of Etobicoke North to NDP - Leaning towards NDP - Negative buzz around the PC Party
  8. 8. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Glengarry— Prescott— Russell - Perception that Doug Ford’s administration would cut healthcare budgets if voted to power - Issues around Doug Ford’s supporter’s narrative which paints the North York tragedy as immigration led - Rent control – people want a tab on ‘out of control’ rents - Negative perception around Horwath’s campaign solely focussed on women, disregarding men - Doug Ford using paid actors as supporters - Negative perceptions around healthcare - Negative perception around attitude towards minorities (ex. Muslims) - Perception that voting for NDP would make the debt situation worse - Negative buzz around Ford’s riding “A beer, for a vote” - Positive buzz around the carbon tax - PC Party to axe the carbon tax and save people’s money - Perceptions around “No Tax” - Buzz around the non- existence of Green Party in the ongoing debate for leadership after 7th June - Leaning towards PC Party - Positive buzz around PC Party and negative against the financially irresponsible Liberals Guelph - Negative buzz around the nomination process - Issue of injured workers – low priority for all. - Hydro payouts - Buzz around Doug Ford’s platform not being costed out. - Leaning towards NDP Haldimand— Norfolk - Buzz around Toby’s candidature (positive) - Healthcare budget cut worries - Doug Ford should explain what is budget cuts are – the detail - Perception around PC Party not being good for healthcare. - Perception that healthcare might be privatized - Leaning towards NDP
  9. 9. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Haliburton— Kawartha Lakes— Brock - Questions around corporate tax rate cuts (given it is already the lowest amongst other provinces) - Debate whether the proposed tax reforms are good for minimum wage earners - Positive buzz around reforms from Uni of Waterloo, Laurier Univ - No bus service for heart and cancer patients to Peterborough - Negative buzz around PC Party is emerging - “beer cartel”, lack of clarity on economic policy etc. - Buzz around carbon tax scheme. Perception acround “Is it a money grab from the polluters or an actual fund that helps the environment” - Concern over security of jobs under NDP government - Negative buzz on Liberal party. Wynne is responsible for Ontario’s huge deficits, failing economy and a crumbling healthcare system - Leaning towards NDP Kenora— Rainy River - Negative buzz around Doug Ford’s inability to answer a question around how bill becomes a law - Negative buzz around a video showing Doug Ford bribing voters in the past - Negative buzz around alleged “paid actors” in Doug Ford’s campaign - Negative buzz continues – around perceived inability to run as a premier - Buzz around the deficits where experts such as Don Drummond says PC Party’s startegy would lead to higher deficits compared to the Liberal party. - Leaning towards NDP - Buzz about lack of clear platform - Negative perception about healthcare cuts
  10. 10. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Kitchener— Waterloo - Issue around high security costs for Kathleen Wynne’s rally at the University of Waterloo - Positive buzz around free speech and accountability in education (Univ of Waterloo) - Negative buzz around the negative impact on education funding if PC Party comes into power - Support for cut in gasoline prices - Leaning towards NDP Lanark— Frontenac— Lennox and Addington - Dial back of burdensome police- oversight rules - Concerns on climate change - Negative buzz around Doug Ford’s inability to answer a question around how bill becomes a law - Negative buzz continues around Doug Ford - Leaning towards NDP London West - Nomination process related buzz – painted as undemocratic Nomination issue continues – buzz against Andrew Lawton. Considered to be racist and homophobic - Perception of PC Party being “far-right- learning” - Leaning towards NDP
  11. 11. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Milton - Negative buzz around the nomination process - Buzz supporting the Milton GO Line. - Concerns that the 401 expansion plans are too slow. Currently rush hour only - Positive buzz around the proposed changes to the GTA Transit - Negative perception that the PCParty does not care much about health - Massive parking problems in Milton - Positive buzz around accountability - Negative buzz around perception about being “Anti-gay” - Even battle between PC Party, Liberals and NDP Mississauga - Centre - Opposition claims of PC Party being racist and homophobic - Nomination issues - Buzz continues around the overturning of Tanya Granic Allen, both positive and negative (mostly negative). - Positive buzz emerging around Doug Ford’s campaign - Leaning towards PC Party Mississauga - Lakeshore - Buzz around Rudy Cuzzetto’s nomination - Leaning towards PC Party
  12. 12. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Nepean— Carleton - Elimination of tax for minimum wage workers - Buzz against Liberal’s attempt to pit communities against each other. - Leaning towards NDP but a tough fight with PC Party Newmarket— Aurora - Positive buzz around Christine Elliott - Buzz around issues related to Immigration & refugees because of the incident involving Alek Minassian - Good positive buzz around Doug Ford’s rally - - Leaning towards PC Party Niagara Falls - Resentment around postponement of Doug Ford’s rally. Some support for the same as well. - Positive buzz ins support of the proposed transit between Toronto and Niagara Falls - NDP is garnering a positive buzz. - More positive buzz for PC Party vs. negative - Leaning towards PC Party Northumberlan d—Quinte West - Hydro borrowing scheme and how that would increase bills to skyrocket - - Leaning towards PC Party
  13. 13. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Oakville - Buzz around cancellation of the gas plant - Positive buzz for PCs for accountability - High positive buzz for the PC Party. Negative buzz for Kathleen Wynne - - Leaning towards PC Party Oshawa - Discussions around the Schedule 14 of the budget - GOTrain - Buzz for Chapman • Negative buzz for Doug Ford - Buzz around destruction of Greenbelt allowing oil pipeline - Negative buzz around lack of healthcare vision of Liberals - Leaning towards NDP Ottawa - Center - Support for the PC Party Ottawa West— Nepean - Positive reception to the pitch of accountability in education - Negative buzz around NDPs plan to invest in bike lanes (at the cost of highway 417). - Perceptions of NDP being equivalent to communists - Need for a “fully costed” budget from PC Party - Negative buzz around NDP: “finding ways of detaching income security from paid employment” - Support for NDP at the cost of PC Party Ottawa South - Leaning towards NDP Oxford - Buzz against abolishing supervised injection sites - Positive buzz around NDP candidate - Leaning towards NDP
  14. 14. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Parry Sound— Muskoka - Lot of negative buzz around Doug Ford – his past, corporate tax rate cut issue, perception around budget cuts for healthcare, education etc. - Negative buzz around Doug Ford related to his response to the question on law making, appointing Andrew Lawton, issues from his past. - “A beer for a buck”, negative slogan around the riding. - Polarized voters – strongly for and against - Leaning against PC Party - Negative buzz for Doug Ford. Pickering— Scarborough East - Residents are concerned about the continued operation of the nuclear power station - Positive buzz around the PC Party campaign - Job loss worry dominates the buzz. Positive in support of PC Party - Negative buzz around the viability of the plant given its outlived its life - Leaning towards PC Party - Some support for NDP, but largely a riding for the PC Party Renfrew— Nipissing— Pembroke - Negative buzz around Hydro One and its executives - Buzz around Mike Harris Jr. nomination - Very positive buzz around this riding – around the rally by Doug Ford - Negative buzz around Brad Clarks’ official expenses (on fashion, dinners) - Negative buzz around NDP Party’s debate performance - Negative perceptions around NDP being soft on illegal immigrants - Positive buzz in support of PC Party - Doug Ford seen as someone who’d bring tax cuts and straightforwardness Richmond Hill - Discussion on Immigration and refugee policy - - Leaning towards the PC Party St. Catharines - Debate around Safe injection vs. drug rehab. - Leaning towards PC Party
  15. 15. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Sault Ste. Marie - Buzz around Doug Ford’s rally and its subsequent cancellation - Leaning towards PC Party - Steel plant workers support the party Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry - Learning towards the PC Party - Intense, polarized debate but more support for PC Party vs. NDP Sudbury - High gas prices - Patients being treated in Hallways’ – financial indiscipline by Kathleen Wynne as the reason - Positive buzz around getting rid of rent control - Positive buzz around accountability - Very positive buzz around Sudbury - - Leaning towards the PC Party Thornhill - Positive buzz around building the Yonge Subway extension - Negative perception around being “racist” - Leaning towards NDP - Negative buzz around PC Party Timmins— James Bay - Positive buzz around Doug Ford’s campaign - Perception that Northern Ontario regions are being ignored in the campaign - Some negative buzz emerging. “Buck for a beer” not leading to positive perceptions - Leaning towards PC Party
  16. 16. Riding Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of April 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 3rd week of May 2018 Issues/buzz in the 1st week of June 2018 Toronto Centre - Negative buzz around “hired actors” to pose as supporters of Meredith Cartwright - - Leaning towards NDP Waterloo - Leaning towards NDP - Negative buzz for PC Party because of lack of the detailed platform, Renate Ford lawsuit, Wellington - - - Negative perception around being “racist” - Support for Mike Schreiner - Leaning towards NDP Whitby— Oshawa - Schedule 14 of the budget - Demand for a Subway GOTrain - Buzz for Bob Chapman - Negative buzz for Doug Ford - - Balanced buzz – positive and negative - Support emerging for PC Party vs. earlier - Intense fight for the top spot between NDP and PC Party - Increasingly leaning towards NDP Willowdale - Ontario Hydro One’s executive pays - Positive buzz around Doug Ford’s campaign - Negative buzz on NDP who would raise taxes and put thousands out of work - Leaning towards PC Party - Good support for Stan Cho

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