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COMPANY P/E (x) EPS (Rs)* MKT CAP (Rs m) 52-WEEK GET HIGH / LOW (Rs) MORE INFO AXIS 11.89 87.42 426,561 1,600 / 1,063 BANKBanking [Key Points | Financial15Share Year 10 | Prospects | Sector Dos and Donts] Influenced by the global financial turmoil and repercussion of the subprime crisis, the global banking sector has been witness to some of the largest and best known names succumb to multi-billion dollar write-offs and face near bankruptcy. However, the Indian banking sector has been well shielded by the central bank and has managed to sail through most of the crisis with relative ease. Further with the economic buoyancy the world over showing signs of cooling off, the investment cycle has also been wavering. Having said that, the latent demand for credit (both from the food and non food segments) and structural reforms have paved the way for a change in the dynamics of the sector itself. Besides gearing up for the compliance with Basel II accord, the sector is also looking forward to consolidation and investments on the FDI front. Public sector banks have been very proactive in their restructuring initiatives be it in technology implementation or pruning their loss assets. While the likes of SBI have made already attempts towards consolidation, others are keen to take off in that direction. Incremental provisioning made for asset slippages have safeguarded the banks from witnessing a sudden impact on their bottomlines. Retail lending (especially mortgage financing) that formed a significant portion of the portfolio for most banks in the last two years lost some weightage on the banks portfolios due to their risk weightage. However, on the liabilities side, with better penetration in the semi urban and rural areas the banks garnered a higher proportion of low cost deposits thereby economising on the cost of funds. Apart from streamlining their processes through technology initiatives such as ATMs, telephone banking, online banking and web based products, banks also resorted to cross selling of financial products such as credit cards, mutual funds and insurance policies to augment their fee based income.Key PointsSupply Liquidity is controlled by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).Demand India is a growing economy and demand for credit is high though it could be cyclical.Barriers to entry Licensing requirement, investment in technology and branch network.Bargaining power High during periods of tight liquidity. Trade unions in publicof suppliers sector banks can be anti reforms. Depositors may invest elsewhere if interest rates fall.
Bargaining power For good creditworthy borrowers bargaining power is highof customers due to the availability of large number of banksCompetition High- There are public sector banks, private sector and foreign banks along with non banking finance companies competing in similar business segments. TOPFinancial Year 10 After a difficult FY09 Indian banks managed to grow their balance sheets in FY10 albeit at a lower average rate than that projected by the RBI. The monetary stimuli (reduction in repo rate, cash reserve ratio (CRR) and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) offered to the banks by the RBI early in the fiscal made it easier to sustain margins But what really helped was the accretion of low cost deposits (CASA). Indian banks grew their advances and deposits by 16.9% YoY and 17.2% YoY respectively in FY10. The growth was mainly driven by a expansion in low cost deposits and growth in agricultural and large corporate credit. Having said that, higher delinquency levels in retail credit and debt restructuring took its toll on the sector. Data source: RBI With lesser avenues of credit disbursal, banks had to park most of the liquidity available with them with the RBI. In the retail portfolio, while home loans grew by 11% YoY, personal loans enjoyed a much smaller growth of 6% YoY due to banks reluctance towards uncollateralized credit. Credit card outstanding in fact dropped by 27% YoY. Indian banks, however, enjoyed higher levels of money supply, credit and deposits as a percentage of GDP in FY10 as compared to that in FY09 showing improved maturity in the financial sector.
Data source: RBI Despite poor pricing power lower cost of funds helped Indian banks grow their net interest margins in FY10. While few like ICICI Bank chose to reduce their balance sheet size, most entities chose to reasonably grow their franchise as well as assets. Public sector banks outdid their private sector counterparts in terms of growth and franchise expansion in the last fiscal. Improved capital adequacy also helped banks to comfortably comply with Basel II. The higher efficiency levels were the hallmarks of better performance of Indian banks last year. Most banks had to restructure some loans in their portfolio during FY10 which deferred their interest income. Further the PSU banks had also to provide for the loss of interest on the agri-loans waived by the government. In FY10, as per the RBI mandate, all commercial banks in India as well as foreign banks operating in India migrated to the Basel II norms for capital adequacy. While some PSU banks are falling short of capital due to the same, they may witness some capital infusion from the government in FY11. TOPProspects With banks having complied with Basel II and having sufficient capital in their books; it will be a challenge to deploy the same safely and profitably in the event of persistence of economic slowdown. Banks are likely to concentrate more on non funded income in this scenario. Banks, especially the private sector ones, are likely to face penetration concerns. The lack of credit penetration and the geographic concentration of bank credit is evident from the fact that 5 states having the highest proportion of per capita credit enjoy 55% of the total credit disbursals in the country. RBIs roadmap for the entry of foreign banks and the acquisition of stake by the foreign entities in Indian private banks has been deferred for the time being. However, the tussle for higher market share in the already fragmented sector is only set to aggravate. The proposal for Cabinets approval to allow PSU banks to bring down the governments stake in them below the stipulated 51%, which is yet to be tabled, can help the bank raise substantial capital without borrowing at high rates and give the entities an opportunity to enhance their capital adequacy
ratios besides competing with their private sector peers