Explain the logic behind the least-squares regression solution. What is the mean goal of analysis?
How are errors expressed?
Solution
The method of least squares is a standard approach to the approximate solution of
overdetermined systems, i.e., sets of equations in which there are more equations than unknowns.
"Least squares" means that the overall solution minimizes the sum of the squares of the errors
made in the results of every single equation. The most important application is in data fitting.
The best fit in the least-squares sense minimizes the sum of squared residuals, a residual being
the difference between an observed value and the fitted value provided by a model. When the
problem has substantial uncertainties in the independent variable (the 'x' variable), then simple
regression and least squares methods have problems; in such cases, the methodology required for
fitting errors-in-variables models may be considered instead of that for least squares. The
knowledge we have of the physical world is obtained by doing experiments and making
measurements. It is important to understand how to express such data and how to analyze and
draw meaningful conclusions from it. In doing this it is crucial to understand that all
measurements of physical quantities are subject to uncertainties. It is never possible to measure
anything exactly. It is good, of course, to make the error as small as possible but it is always
there. And in order to draw valid conclusions the error must be indicated and dealt with properly.
Take the measurement of a person's height as an example. Assuming that her height has been
determined to be 5' 8", how accurate is our result? Well, the height of a person depends on how
straight she stands, whether she just got up (most people are slightly taller when getting up from
a long rest in horizontal position), whether she has her shoes on, and how long her hair is and
how it is made up. These inaccuracies could all be called errors of definition. A quantity such as
height is not exactly defined without specifying many other circumstances. Even if you could
precisely specify the "circumstances," your result would still have an error associated with it.
The scale you are using is of limited accuracy; when you read the scale, you may have to
estimate a fraction between the marks on the scale, etc. If the result of a measurement is to have
meaning it cannot consist of the measured value alone. An indication of how accurate the result
is must be included also. Indeed, typically more effort is required to determine the error or
uncertainty in a measurement than to perform the measurement itself. Thus, the result of any
physical measurement has two essential components: (1) A numerical value (in a specified
system of units) giving the best estimate possible of the quantity measured, and (2) the degree of
uncertainty associated with this estimated value. For example, a measurement of the width of a
table would yield a result such as 95.3 +/- 0.1 cm.