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Climate Changes @ India.. Take a look.. Care for it.. Go Green.. !!


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The Climate Project - India

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Climate Changes @ India.. Take a look.. Care for it.. Go Green.. !!

  1. 1. 1
  2. 2. A planet in peril…. Our energy hungry approach to development is causing the planet to warm and risking the health of our future Historically, countries have developed by converting natural resources into energy and products Some of these natural resources, known as fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), stored away millions of years of buried carbon in the ground. Scientists expect average temperatures to rise anywhere between 3-8 When burned for energy (such as coal power plants or petrol), the carbon stored in these fuels combines with oxygen and is released into we air as carbon dioxide (CO2). degrees by the end of this century if the do not significantly reduce our carbon emissions. We have about 10 years at best to make the CO2 is a greenhouse gas which means it traps the sun’s heat in the atmosphere hence any increase leads to higher surface temperatures on Earth. rise. changes and avoid dangerous temperature Since the industrial revolution, we have released CO2 on a massive scale causing a steep and measurable increase of CO2 in the air. Initially we did not think about the consequences of changing the CO2 balance but we now see it has led to a warming planet- a process which is accelerating Aside from hotter temperatures, we face rising sea levels, greater floods and droughts, loss of agriculture, loss of animal species, greater diseases and increased storm activity.
  3. 3. An Indian Perspective India is going through a period of unprecedented economic growth This has the capacity to deliver much needed improvements in health, education and lifestyles that 100s of millions of people in India lack However, like the developed world, this economic growth is fueled by energy which Only through international co-operation and a presently is largely supplied by fossil fuels. strong domestic resolve, can India deliver on Hence, India’s current pathway of development wouldsecure future for major development today and a lead it to becoming a the contributor to the already dangerous levels of carbon dioxide emissions planet and our children Currently, India is a very low emitter of CO2, but this is as much to do with poverty as it is to do with sustainable practices. Knowing what we know now about the harmful effects of Greenhouse gases, we need to find alternative means of energy and development But these alternatives, such as renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal etc) are often expensive or still require further development
  4. 4. Contents • Indian contribution to Climate Change • Indian Impacts • Indian Opportunities
  5. 5. The average Indian produces very little carbon dioxide compared with International levels Total Greenhouse Emissions (per person)
  6. 6. But given our size, we are an important player in the fight against Global warming Relative contribution of fossil fuels to global warming (2007) India already represents 5% of Greenhouse Gas emissions from Fossil Fuels Source: Hansen et al. (2007). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7: 2287-2312
  7. 7. The Indian contribution to Global Warming has many facets Poverty keeps India’s carbon dioxide emissions low Over 400m Indians lack access to electricity UNDP Human Development Indicators, 2008 But a growing rich class of Indians are increasing emissions dramatically Top 1% of Indians (those earning over $700 US per month) estimated to emit around to 5 tonnes CO2 per annum, close to global average Greenpeace: ‘hiding behind the poor’, 2007 And our burning of biofuels such as wood for cooking adds new problems India and China are the primary contributors of ‘black carbon’ (soot), which has a significant and yet to be quantified impact on Climate Change James Hansen et al
  8. 8. Some Indian practices helping keep our emissions low: But can we maintain them? • Vegetarian diets use much less energy – But increased incomes leading to shift in higher meat diets • High rates of recycling – But has this just been a function of a low labour cost economy?
  9. 9. Where Indian emissions come from? Green House Gas Indian Emissions Measured in CO2 Equivalent Industrial processes Transportation (18 %) (6.5%) Fossil fuel Land-use change Processing & & Bio-mass Retrieval burning (7.2%) (2.1%) Agriculture (26.5%) Energy Industry (28 %) Residential & Commercial Waste Disposal & (7.9%) Treatment (3.8%) Source: Indian UN submission, 2004
  10. 10. Coal is our dominant source of energy, and the most harmful in terms of producing CO2 Indian Source of Power Generation Source: CEA and MNRE (2008)
  11. 11. India will need to add a lot of additional power capacity to meet needs GigaWatts of Installed Power Capacity Majority of increase is planned to come from coal Source: CEA (2008)
  12. 12. India’s 10 5 year th India’s 11th 5 year plan plan •27 GW of electric •80 GW of electric power power •25% to come from •14% to come from renewables renewables
  13. 13. By 2030 India aims to possess 800 GW of power, that is 6 times what we have today Source: Graham-Harrison 2008
  14. 14. Today India produces over 1.6 Gt of carbon emissions per year Business as usual, means that India will produce 5.5 Gt of carbon emission per year by 2030-31. (Close to where China is today) If we aim green the Planning Commission believes we can reach 3.9 Gt per year
  15. 15. Contents • Indian contribution to Climate Change • Indian Impacts • Indian Opportunities
  16. 16. Agriculture: core to employment & security Agriculture is the largest economic sector and plays a significant role in the overall socio- economic development of India. “Around 46 % of the India’s geographical area is used for Agricultural Activities.” Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry, logging and fishing accounted for 16.6% of the GDP in 2007 and employed 60% of the country's population.
  17. 17. Climatic changes will reduce agriculture yields significantly India may lose up to 17% of its farming income from increases in temperature Mendolsohn, Yale University Study, 2008 quot;Wheat yields would fall by 5-10% with every increase of 1 degree celsius,quot; Dr R.K. Pachauri, 2008
  18. 18. India already suffers from water scarcity
  19. 19. Climate Change Is Going To Make The Water Problems a Lot Worse! Expected changes in precipitation Grey =No Data Red = decrease in precipitation Changes in precipitation will increase extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. Blue = increase in Green = No precipitation change Source: UN World Water Development Report 2, CERE
  20. 20. Droughts Warmer temperatures mean more water evaporates from the soil increasing the amount of droughts. Farmer suicides can be directly linked to the impact that Climate Change is already having
  21. 21. Flooding With more water evaporating, we get higher rates of flooding as well. In India thousands of people are killed & millions affected by floods due to heavy rains in the monsoon season every year. 1/2 30 20 million million million 2003 2004 2005 6 million 14 million ? 2006 2007 2008
  22. 22. Warmer temperatures mean more storms Arabian Sea GONU, June 2007 – Category 5 Bay of Bengal Bay of Bengal SIDR, November 2007 – Category 5 NARGIS, April 2008 – Category 4
  23. 23. Warmer temperatures cause stronger storms… US $ 4.4 billion in damages 4.1 Lakh destruction of farm land 12 lakh tonnes of rice paddy devastated- this accounts for 40% of the country’s output Super Cyclone Sidr Led to reduced yields CATEGORY 5 November 15, in other paddy farms. 2007 8.9 Million environmental refugees left homeless
  24. 24. The Himalayan glaciers are very important to us because… They are the source of 7 major rivers They provide water to 40% of the world’s population Photo: Nikhil Devasar/Sanctuary Photolibrary
  25. 25. Our glaciers are melting away Pindari Glacier 1936 2006
  26. 26. And the Himalayan snow leopards Photo: International Snow Leopard
  27. 27. Begin to lose their homes… Are losing their habitat Photo: Sanctuary
  28. 28. Animals and fauna across India predicted to disappear rapidly Effect of fragmentation, forest degradation and climate change on mean species abundance of India. RED means 0% species present 2008 2030 Source: GIST
  29. 29. Contents • Indian contribution to Climate Change • Indian Impacts • Indian Opportunities
  30. 30. Harness Renewables: 4th in Wind Capacity Today
  31. 31. Harness Renewables: Significant Solar Resource India’s solar energy potential Source: NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (2008) Kilowatt-hours per square meter per day
  32. 32. Urbanization in India: a chance to incorporate latest thinking % of Indian population living in urban areas 30 25 Urbanization (%) 20 15 10 5 0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2000 Census Years India is one of the least urbanized countries in the world Source: Unicef
  33. 33. Chance to build proper public transport in our new cities from the start Private vehicles in India account for 67.6% of motorized vehicles in India. They carry 37% of the commuters and take up 67.1% of the road width. Buses are 24.4% of the CO2 emissions from cars vehicles, 61% of the commuters and 38% of has increased by 73% and the road width. from two wheelers by 61% in Delhi alone Source: Down To Earth Magazine, 2008 (CSE Publication)
  34. 34. Opportunity To Develop More Efficiently? Human Development Index (2007) Italy Norway Iceland Get here by 2030? UK Japan Greece USA South Africa India Electricity consumption (annual kw hrs/person, 2004)
  35. 35. An Opportunity To Change Government of India has approved 213 new coal plants in the next 8 years. Planning Commission But these haven’t been built yet. Can we find alternatives?
  36. 36. Examples of no regrets – only gains – not so complex solutions Increase Protect and Plant Improve Public Women’s More Trees Transport Education Tax Power and Subsidize Cleaner Reduce/Improve Water Consumption Technologies Not Bio Fuel Cooking Progressively Polluting Ones Electrify non-powered villages with renewables 36
  37. 37. The Power To Change “There is a sufficiency in the world for man's need but not quot;Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction.quot; for man's greed” 37