The perils of popularity (or
how to create hits) Rashmi Sinha www.slideshare.net

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=13051425&size=l

social networks are evolving

~2002 <ul><li>linked in, friendster </li></ul>

Hi I found you while
I was searching my network at LinkedIn. Let's connect directly, so we can help each other with referrals. If we connect, both of our networks will grow…

Just a graph! <ul><li>How it
works </li></ul><ul><li>People connect to each other </li></ul><ul><li>Six degrees of separation </li></ul><ul><li>“ Are you my friend” awkwardness </li></ul>1) I am linked to -> -> to you --->You are linked to her -> -> to her…

~2004 <ul><li>object based social networks
</li></ul>

Watercooler conversations (mediated by objects,
e.g., Flickr, YouTube, SlideShare) 1) I share my pics -> -> with you ---> -->You share your pics -> ---> with him <ul><li>How it works </li></ul><ul><li>People share objects | watch others </li></ul><ul><li>Connections through objects </li></ul><ul><li>Social info streams: emergence of popular, interesting items </li></ul>

Viral sharing (pass on interesting
stuff, e.g., YouTube videos) <ul><li>How it works </li></ul><ul><li>Individual to individual to individual </li></ul><ul><li>Popularity based navigation track “viral” items </li></ul>1) I send video I like -> -> to you. You pass on --> --> to her, who sends on to her, who passes on…

May 2007 <ul><li>Facebook - We
own the social graph, you bring the objects </li></ul>

social app has 3 components
<ul><li>the objects </li></ul><ul><li>the social graph </li></ul><ul><li>the place </li></ul>

Can the social graph be
independent of the place & objects the graph the place the objects

Nov 2007 Can Google set
it free?

4 models of popularity <ul><li>Google
</li></ul><ul><li>Digg </li></ul><ul><li>YouTube, SlideShare </li></ul><ul><li>Facebook </li></ul>

1. Google - Blind sociality
<ul><li>Social network cannot be browsed </li></ul>

Picasa: You cannot see friends
of friends

Google calendar: You can only
search public events

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=231287836&size=o

2. Digg as a laser
beam <ul><li>Focused </li></ul><ul><li>in time </li></ul><ul><li>on tech topics </li></ul><ul><li>young male users </li></ul>

encourages mobs <ul><ul><li>Quick, engaging, transparent
metric </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sequential decisions </li></ul></ul>

top diggers <ul><li>can reach front
page </li></ul><ul><li>rich get richer effect... </li></ul>

wisdom of crowds needs independence

3. Youtube - promiscuous popularity
<ul><ul><li>Many metrics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>no multi-level menus </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>navigation by popularity </li></ul></ul>

Popularity on SlideShare Keep it
on your desktop Download Remember stuff, tell someone you like their stuff Favorite & tag Share with your friends Email Share on your blog Embed Watch it View Interact with others Comment Goal Metric

diff strokes for diff folks
<ul><li>most viewed </li></ul><ul><li>most favorited & tagged </li></ul>

Long tail of content <ul><li>Anyone
can share </li></ul><ul><li>But who reaches the masses? </li></ul>

How hits are created

N Sync vs. lonely girl

System designer as studio boss
<ul><li>We need things to talk about at the watercooler </li></ul><ul><li>Hits will find a way! </li></ul>

Creating trends <ul><li>Everything starts as
equal </li></ul><ul><li>People can connect locally </li></ul><ul><li>Highlight alternative viewpoints </li></ul><ul><li>System should be flexible </li></ul>

4. Viral navigation on Facebook
<ul><li>News feed, notifications & messages </li></ul><ul><li>Its about social connections </li></ul><ul><li>Content does not get passed </li></ul><ul><li>Apps get passed around </li></ul>

Making spammers of all of
us? <ul><li>Tracking spam rating </li></ul><ul><li>Throttling as needed </li></ul>

Rules of the game are
always changing <ul><li>Changed metric </li></ul><ul><li>Throttled viral pace </li></ul><ul><li>Still no leveling of the playing field </li></ul>

Popularity breeds spam & corruption
<ul><li>Top Diggers </li></ul><ul><li>Spammy facebook apps </li></ul><ul><li>News feed optimization </li></ul>

the metric counts <ul><li>Digg -
One transparent metric. Easily corrupted </li></ul><ul><li>YouTube - Multiple metrics. Harder to rig </li></ul><ul><li>Facebook - Single metric ( no installs ). Now daily usage </li></ul>

Is search threatened by popularity
& virality?

User generated content Images Videos
Slideshows Music Articles

Flickr based search results

Pagerank needs an open web
<ul><li>Closed circles don’t work </li></ul>

10 lessons about social design

Forget the ipod!

Give up control This is
messy!

1. Make system personally useful
<ul><ul><li>personal snippets (Del.icio.us & Flickr) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Creativity (YouTube) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>My slides: SlideShare </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Don’t count on altruism </li></ul><ul><ul><li>thrive on people’s selfishness </li></ul></ul>

2. Symbiotic relationship between personal
& social <ul><li>Small individual contributions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>can be collected & mashed-up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Simple, guessable URLs for everything </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Slideshows > by Events </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Music > by Playlists </li></ul></ul>

3. what kind of social
do you want to be?

Which playground do you want
to play in? <ul><ul><li>Open web </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Facebook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Myspace / Hi5 / Xanga / other social networks </li></ul></ul>

Do you want your own
social graph? <ul><li>Or play in existing ones? </li></ul>

4. Privacy is social <ul><li>Sharing
is often in closed circles </li></ul>

Indexed by Google (everyone/everywhere) Only
me My friends My groups Public Private Only in place

5. levels of participation <ul><li>Everyone
does not need to create! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Implicit creation (creating by consuming) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Remixing—adding value to others’ content </li></ul></ul>Source: Bradley Horowitz’s weblog, Elatable, Feb. 17, 2006, “Creators, Synthesizers, and Consumers”

6. Enable viral navigation <ul><ul><li>Help
people connect </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Let them feel presence of others </li></ul></ul>

but decisions should be independent…
<ul><li>Choreography: when alone, when part of group </li></ul><ul><li>prevent mobs </li></ul><ul><li>not too easy to mimic others </li></ul><ul><ul><li>incentives for originality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>allow for alternative viewpoints </li></ul></ul>

7. Add in serendipity <ul><li>navigation
not just about popularity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Keep popular stuff fast moving </li></ul></ul><ul><li>make “long tail” accessible </li></ul><ul><ul><li>popularity as a jump off point to other ways of exploring </li></ul></ul><ul><li>personalization & recommendations </li></ul><ul><li>ad-hoc groups? </li></ul>

8. Add in a dash
of experts <ul><li>contest on SlideShare: both judges & popular votes </li></ul>

9. Be agile <ul><li>You don’t
know the right answer </li></ul><ul><li>Fail fast to get to the right answer </li></ul><ul><li>Track metrics, adjust, change </li></ul>

10. Most of all, allow
for play

Finally <ul><li>your slides at </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.slideshare.net/group/web-directions
</li></ul><ul><li>find me at </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.slideshare.net/rashmi </li></ul>