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www.eightytwentyinvestor.comwww.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.comSource: Morgan Housel article
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
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-7000
-2000
3000
8000
13000
18000
23000
28000
33000
38000
43000
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Equity MF Inflows vs Sensex
12MMA net inflows into Equity MF ('000 Cr) Sensex
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.comSource: https://multi-act.com/mutual-fund-investing-simple-but-not-easy/
*up to 31 March 2016
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
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1. Behavior in a bull market
2. Behavior in a bear market
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www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Apr-79
Apr-80
Apr-81
Apr-82
Apr-83
Apr-84
Apr-85
Apr-86
Apr-87
Apr-88
Apr-89
Apr-90
Apr-91
Apr-92
Apr-93
Apr-94
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Sensex - Drawdown
www.eightytwentyinvestor.comSource: Wealth Forum
www.eightytwentyinvestor.comSource: Wealth Forum
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
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The pain of losing is psychologically about twice
as strong as the pleasure of making profit
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
Understanding our lizard brain
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
The culprit in your brain
Mr Amygdala!!
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
So what does it do?
Freeze, fight
or flight
Brain’s early warning system
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Financial losses are
processed in the same
area of the brain that
responds to mortal
danger!
And it is literally true
that we can relive our
financial losses in our
sleep.
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
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Obsessive portfolio stalking..
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
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Enter Mr Asch and his experiments..
3 out of 4 people ignored what they could see so
evidently with their own eyes and answered incorrectly
at least once!
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
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Video
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
Eichmann said he
was a “mere
instrument” of
leaders responsible
for the killing of 6
million Jews in
World War TwoHandwritten request for clemency by Adolf Eichmann, an architect of
the Nazi Holocaust
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr5cjyokVUs
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
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https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/08/10/silver-medal-or-bronze-understanding-pride-regret-and-counterfactual-thinking/
A team of researchers found that, while gold medalists are happiest about
their accomplishments…
Bronze medalists are consistently happier than silver medalists!!
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
What-if and If–only problem
Emotional responses to outcomes often are influenced by what might
have been i.e how easily one can conjure up alternate outcomes, and
counterfactual thinking often ends in regret.
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
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1. Loss Aversion + Amygdala + Obsessive
monitoring
2. Social Proof
3. Expert Bias
4. Counterfactual thinking & Regret
5. Scarcity of time
6. Action Bias
1.Ego (Cognitive
Dissonance)
2.Existing patterns
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
Date Loss (in lakhs) Date Loss (in lakhs)
01-Jan-08 0 10-Jan-09 -54
16-Jan-08 -2 25-Jan-09 -57
31-Jan-08 -13 09-Feb-09 -53
15-Feb-08 -11 24-Feb-09 -57
01-Mar-08 -13 11-Mar-09 -60
16-Mar-08 -22 26-Mar-09 -51
31-Mar-08 -23 10-Apr-09 -47
15-Apr-08 -20 25-Apr-09 -44
30-Apr-08 -15 10-May-09 -41
15-May-08 -15 25-May-09 -31
30-May-08 -19 09-Jun-09 -25
14-Jun-08 -25 24-Jun-09 -29
29-Jun-08 -32 09-Jul-09 -32
14-Jul-08 -34 24-Jul-09 -24
29-Jul-08 -32 08-Aug-09 -25
13-Aug-08 -26 23-Aug-09 -25
28-Aug-08 -31 07-Sep-09 -21
12-Sep-08 -31 22-Sep-09 -17
27-Sep-08 -35 07-Oct-09 -17
12-Oct-08 -48 22-Oct-09 -17
27-Oct-08 -58 06-Nov-09 -20
11-Nov-08 -52 21-Nov-09 -16
26-Nov-08 -56 06-Dec-09 -16
11-Dec-08 -52 21-Dec-09 -18
26-Dec-08 -54 05-Jan-10 -13
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
If…. Then….
“If a customer yells at me then I will ______”.
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
5. Frame it under the right perspective
Consider your entire adult life as your investing time horizon
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com
www.eightytwentyinvestor.com

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What happens during a market crash - a peek into human behavior