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Tin for tomorrow           New sources for new applications          Peter Kettle - Manager, Markets, ITRI LtdITRI Explore...
Leading companies’ 2011 production                                                                       ’000 tonnes      ...
5 things to remember about tin         Small but serious - and traded on the world’s     1         largest metals exchange...
The price roller-coaster                                                CRU Commodity Heat Chart         2Q2012 to 2016   ...
Asia drives growth in tin use                Tin usage by country/region, 1980-2011                       Other   Europe  ...
Global tin use by industry sector120,000                                         Others100,000                            ...
Potential new markets
Potential new markets - 2
World tin supply – major producers’000t     Leading tin producing countries – long term trends300250                      ...
China refined tin and mine output160          ’000 tonnes140             Gap between120        mine and refined           ...
Indonesian production falls Output of tin-in-concentrate, tonnes
Surveys of tin resources and reserves                     40                              World Resources                 ...
Many deposits – few real projects  1 at feasibility stage                 90Kt at feasibility stage     4 at scoping      ...
World undeveloped tin resources          Pyrkakay    Catavi Tailings        Achmmach        Gottesberg                    ...
Major global tin projects                                                                         Syrymbet                ...
New locations for safer projectsCountry     Ranking (of 181)   Country     Ranking (of 181)Canada            4th          ...
The evolving tin supply curve       Operating (2012)       Brownfields                                              These ...
Forecast changes in mine production                  Forecast change from 2011 – 2016, ’000 tpy      AustraliaOther Countr...
Forecast weeks’ supply and pricesWeeks’ supply, price in US$/tonne14.0                                                Fore...
5 things to remember about tin          1 Small but serious          2 Strong price outlook          3 A vital ingredient ...
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Peter Kettle of ITRI talks Tin

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Peter Kettle of ITRI talks Tin

  1. 1. Tin for tomorrow New sources for new applications Peter Kettle - Manager, Markets, ITRI LtdITRI Explorers & Developers Group Australian Tin Tour, September 2012
  2. 2. Leading companies’ 2011 production ’000 tonnes Yunnan Tin MSC Group PT Timah Minsur ITRI represents most Thaisarco leading tin producers, which account for two- Guangxi China Tin thirds of world refinedYunnan Chengfeng metal production. Its main objective over 80 years EM Vinto has been to support tin usage Metallo Chimique Gejiu Zi-Li Refined tin production in blue, mine output in red 0 10 20 30 40 50 60Data: ITRI
  3. 3. 5 things to remember about tin Small but serious - and traded on the world’s 1 largest metals exchange Strong price outlook, based on supply 2 constraints 3 A vital ingredient in a wide range of products New applications should offset substitution 4 and economisation 5 Investment in new mines needed
  4. 4. The price roller-coaster CRU Commodity Heat Chart 2Q2012 to 2016 Long-term tin price history Four Year Outlook % Change Climate Palladium 88% Hot US$/tonne, inflation adjusted 2010 prices Tin 56% Hot40,000 Zinc 53% Hot Uranium 45% Hot Alumina 42% Hot35,000 Aluminium 38% Hot Platinum 28% Hot30,000 Lead 21% Hot Nickel 18% Hot Met Coke 18% Hot25,000 Vanadium 9% Warm Phosphate DAP 7% Warm20,000 Cobalt 5% Warm Iron Ore -4% Cool Manganese -5% Cold15,000 Gold -6% Cold Copper -6% Cold10,000 Coking Coal -7% Cold Potash -16% Freezing Ammonia -17% Freezing 5,000 Urea -17% Freezing Silver -42% Freezing 0 Sulphuric Acid -48% Freezing 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Sulphur -56% Freezing
  5. 5. Asia drives growth in tin use Tin usage by country/region, 1980-2011 Other Europe Other Americas USA Other Asia Japan China 400‘000 tonnes 300 200 100 0 Data: ITRI 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  6. 6. Global tin use by industry sector120,000 Others100,000 Float Glass 80,000 Brass & Bronze 60,000 Chemicals 40,000 Tinplate 20,000 Solder - industrial 0 Solder - electronic Estimates based on ITRI annual surveys since 2005 as part of our Sustainability Project
  7. 7. Potential new markets
  8. 8. Potential new markets - 2
  9. 9. World tin supply – major producers’000t Leading tin producing countries – long term trends300250 China200 Indonesia150 Malaysia Bolivia100 Peru ROW 50 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data: ITRI
  10. 10. China refined tin and mine output160 ’000 tonnes140 Gap between120 mine and refined tin production100 filled by raw material imports80 and secondary production604020 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  11. 11. Indonesian production falls Output of tin-in-concentrate, tonnes
  12. 12. Surveys of tin resources and reserves 40 World Resources New reserves will World Reserves continue to be 30 discovered and Western World developed. ReservesMillion tonnes tin Reserves today are the same as 60 years ago – 20 although 14 million 37.0 tonnes has been mined since then. 10 17.0 7.7 5.0 5.1 4.8 0 Paley 1952 Robertson Sainsbury USDI 1973 USGS 1990 USGS 2012 1965 1969
  13. 13. Many deposits – few real projects 1 at feasibility stage 90Kt at feasibility stage 4 at scoping stage 310Kt at scoping 824Kt as compliant 10 with compliant stage resources resources ~ 60 with historical resources ~3.2Mt as historical resources ~130 known deposits ~4.8Mt of estimated reserves (USGS) Data: ITRI, Greenfields Research, USGS, Infomine, company websites
  14. 14. World undeveloped tin resources Pyrkakay Catavi Tailings Achmmach Gottesberg Projects controlled Pravourmiyskoe by ITRI Explorers Cinovec and Developers Syrymbet Group membersSan Rafael Tailings shown in red. Many Kuala Langat of the others are Rentails inactive or Mount Lindsay uneconomic at Sleitat current prices Colquiri Tailings Taronga JORC or Narsiin Khundlen NI43-101 Mount Pleasant Compliant Heemskirk Known larger undeveloped Geyer-Southwest deposits – ’000 tonnes Sn Mt Garnet Data: ITRI 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
  15. 15. Major global tin projects Syrymbet Geyer Cinovec Santa Maria Gottesberg Narsiin Khundlen Oropesa Achmmach AbuDabbab Kuala Langat San Rafael Tailings Mt GarnetMajor tin mine project Mt Lindsay RentailsNon-tin mining country (2011) HeemskirkTin mining country (2011)
  16. 16. New locations for safer projectsCountry Ranking (of 181) Country Ranking (of 181)Canada 4th Peru 56thAustralia 5th - -- - China 71stUSA 10th Brazil 72nd- - - -Germany 20th Indonesia 111th- - - -UK 25th Bolivia 125th Data: Greenfields Research- - - -Spain 27th DR Congo 159th Country risk rankings combine inter- governmental and industry data sets
  17. 17. The evolving tin supply curve Operating (2012) Brownfields These projects currently not Greenfields New projects economic Greyfields need to enter the cost curve here! Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
  18. 18. Forecast changes in mine production Forecast change from 2011 – 2016, ’000 tpy AustraliaOther Countries Africa Brazil Malaysia Peru Bolivia Russia China Indonesia -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
  19. 19. Forecast weeks’ supply and pricesWeeks’ supply, price in US$/tonne14.0 Forecast 40,000 Weeks supply Prices12.0 35,000 30,00010.0 25,000 8.0 20,000 6.0 15,000 4.0 10,000 2.0 5,000 0.0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
  20. 20. 5 things to remember about tin 1 Small but serious 2 Strong price outlook 3 A vital ingredient 4 New applications 5 Investment needed

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