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Building Influence in 2019

As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade, how we impact audiences needs to evolve. In this presentation, Rand shows how web marketers in content, search, social, and advertising (+ influencer marketing) can shift their strategic and tactical investments to align with what the big platforms offer, and how consumer behavior has changed, too.

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Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Building Influence 2019
As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade,
how we impact audiences needs to evolve.
Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019
Influencer Marketing
Discover all the sources that influence your audience. Do
marketing (of all kinds) in those places.
2012
Influencer Marketing
Pay half naked people on Instagram
to post a photo with your product.
2019
Why is Influencer Marketing Getting All the Attention?
ViaGoogleTrends
And So Much Investment?
ChartviaMediaKix
*EstimateviaMozcirca2018
For comparison, SEO spend globally is ~$20-30B*
Ad

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Building Influence in 2019

  • 1. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO Building Influence 2019 As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade, how we impact audiences needs to evolve.
  • 3. Influencer Marketing Discover all the sources that influence your audience. Do marketing (of all kinds) in those places. 2012
  • 4. Influencer Marketing Pay half naked people on Instagram to post a photo with your product. 2019
  • 5. Why is Influencer Marketing Getting All the Attention? ViaGoogleTrends
  • 6. And So Much Investment? ChartviaMediaKix *EstimateviaMozcirca2018 For comparison, SEO spend globally is ~$20-30B*
  • 7. IMO, Data Like This Creates Irrational Bias ViaPew Instead of “Where are *our* customers?”, Too many marketers ask “Which platform’s biggest?”
  • 8. Potential Sources of Influence: Podcasts Events Mainstream Media Trade Journals Whitepapers Radio Television Guerilla Marketing Branded Publications Blogs Twitter YouTube Channels Industry Reports Facebook GroupsWeb Searches Email Newsletters Consumer Review Pubs Instagram
  • 9. Where “Influencer Marketing” is Done: Podcasts Events Mainstream Media Trade Journals Whitepapers Radio Television Guerilla Marketing Branded Publications Blogs Twitter YouTube Channels Industry Reports Facebook GroupsWeb Searches Email Newsletters Consumer Review Pubs Instagram
  • 11. • Desktop devices average ~800 distinct pages viewed per month • Mobile devices averaged ~300 distinct pages viewed per month • Slight decrease in mobile browser pageviews over time (possibly cannibalized by apps) • In March 2019, users viewed 2,350 unique pages on desktop and 680 unique pages on mobile (monthly counts in the graph count multiple visits to the same URL per month as 1) 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 Avg.#ofPageViews Average Distinct Pages Viewed Per Device by Month Mobile Desktop Despite the Growth ofApps & Domination of Big Tech Monopolies, the Web Remains a Vibrant, Diverse Ecosystem
  • 12. Where Should We Do Influence Marketing? Wherever Our Audience Engages. No “r”
  • 13. The Major Shifts Impacting Search, Social, Content, & Advertising And How Marketers Can Best React
  • 16. Here’s Why That Should Scare Web Creators…
  • 17. Google Needs Growth, & It’s Not Coming From New Searchers (at least in developed countries) - 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 35,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 U.S. Searches by Month (web browsers only) Google Desktop Google Images Desktop Google Mobile Google Images Mobile
  • 18. 3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand 2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries (e.g. Google Home, GoogleAssistant, and their SearchApp) 1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time (so searchers don’t need toperform more queries) 3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share (e.g. Facebook, Instagram, DuckDuckGo, YouTube, andAmazon)
  • 19. Theory 1: Google’s Removing the Need for Multiple Queries on the Same Topic(s)
  • 20. They Do This Through Web Result Replacements…
  • 21. Content Scraping that Precludes a Click-Through
  • 22. Giving Their Own Properties Preferential Treatment
  • 23. And More Telepathic, Direct-to-the-Answer Results.
  • 24. Theory 2: Voice Search & Mobile Apps Are Cannibalizing Queries ViaPerficientDigital’s2019Surveyof1,719people
  • 25. ViaHigherVisibility’s2018Surveyof 2,017SmartphoneOwners Unfortunately, we don’t yet have real data, just surveys (which, historically, are poor representations of how people actually behave).
  • 26. Theory 3: Alternatives to GoogleAre Taking Market Share - 10,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 50,000,000,000 60,000,000,000 Desktop Share of Searches by Month Google Google Images Google Maps YouTube Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia ViaJumpshot’sclickstream panelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browser dataonly(noapps)
  • 27. - 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 Search Volumes by Month Under 2.5B Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia - 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 Search Volumes by Month Under 350M Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia ViaJumpshot’sclickstream panelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browser dataonly(noapps)
  • 28. Amazon’s Searched ~1/30th as Much as Google, But… 50,000 500,000 5,000,000 50,000 500,000 5,000,000 GOOGLESEARCHES AMAZON SEARCHES Search Volumes for Top 1K Branded and Nonbranded Amazon Keywords on Google and Amazon (2018) Nonbranded Terms Branded Terms Nonbranded Avg Branded Avg nintendo switch laptop headphones kindle ps4 bluetooth headphones prime video external hard drive paper towels iPhone 7 case cbd oil water bottle iPhone charger food lingerie dog iPhone adidas aa batteries roku mens socks monitor christmas audible sheets
  • 29. What About Search on Instagram? - 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 Instagram Hashtag Clicks by Month (Desktop) IG’s grown ~2.5X on desktop (at a time when desktop overall shrank). Still <0.1% of Google’s desktop search volume.
  • 30. 3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand 2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries (e.g. Google Home, GoogleAssistant, and their SearchApp) 1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time (so searchers don’t need toperform more queries) 3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share (e.g. Facebook, Instagram, DuckDuckGo, YouTube, andAmazon) These two are probably happening. The third, not so much.
  • 31. What’s Google Doing to Grow Ad Revenue? #1: Larger numbers of more subtle ads #2: More kinds of ads
  • 32. Google’s Desktop CTRs March 2018 (US): Paid: 6.1% Organic: 65.3% No Click Searches: 34.7% *Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery
  • 33. Google’s Mobile CTRs September 2018 (US): *Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery Paid: 9.5% Organic: 38.4% No Click Searches: 61.6%
  • 34. How Do These Changes Affect Searcher Behavior? 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Desktop Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero Click Searches (2016-2019) Desktop Organic Clickthroughs Desktop Paid Clicks Desktop Zero Clicks Desktop Zero-Click Searches Up ~12% in 3 Years
  • 35. On Mobile, Those Effects Are Magnified 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Mobile Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero-Click Searches (2016-2019) Mobile Clickthroughs Mobile Paid Clicks Mobile Zero Clicks Mobile Zero-Click Searches Up ~20% in 3 Years
  • 36. Google’s 2019 ABCs: Biasing Visibility & Clicks to Paid Results Answering Queries in SERPs & Sending Out Less Traffic Competing Directly with Publishers (and ranking their own properties ahead of anyone else’s)
  • 37. How Can Search Marketers React?
  • 38. Four Ways to Mitigate Search Risk in 2019: 2) Focus on Marketing that Grows Branded Search 1) Influence Searchers On the SERP 4) Re-Prioritize Keyword Targeting to CTR% 3) Use Barnacle SEO When Google Won’t Rank Your Site
  • 39. Control Your Brand with On-SERP SEO ID sites that rank in your space, & build profiles on them Claim Your Panels Leverage the Rich Snippets Google Offers
  • 40. When KWs Show Aggregated Answers, Influence the Publishers Below to Get Listed To Get Into These… Get Mentioned + Listed In These
  • 41. Double Down on Branded Demand Creation CrowdCow’s “Craft Beef” campaign: a book, web content, & events focused on growing branded demand for their unique product
  • 42. If Other Sites Can Rank, But You Can’t; Use Barnacle SEO Every one of these sites enables user-submitted or guest editorial contributions
  • 43. Shift SEO-Focused Content to KWs Google Is Less Likely to Cannibalize ViaAhrefs
  • 44. Use CTR % Estimates in Your KW Research This metric uses clicksteam data to estimate the % of searchers who’ll click on the standard, non-paid, organic SERPs
  • 46. Social Follower’s Engagement Rates Have Fallen to Near-Zero ViaRivalIQ2019
  • 47. IMO: 10,000 Instagram Followers < 100 Emails ViaRivalIQ2019
  • 48. Social Follower Email Address Avg Engagement/ Post or Email Ability to Retarget? Reach on Other Platforms Ability to Get Audience Data Direct Outreach Possible? 20.81%* * Via Mailchimp Yes,Anywhere Yup. Tons. Yes. 1.73%* Onlyonthat Network Nope. Onlywhatthe networkgivesyou. No. * Via RivalIQ
  • 49. Social’s Traffic is Still Paltry Compared to Search Via Google.com Oct 2016 Facebook.com Reddit.com YouTube.com Imgur.com Bing.com Wikipedia.org Gained/Lost 59.2% 6.5% 5.4% 4.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% Yahoo.com 6.0% -1.4% -1.3% -2.0% +0.3% -1.2% +1.5% -0.1% -1.7% Amazon.com 1.3% +0.1% Top Traffic Referrers Feb 2018 57.8% 5.2% 3.4% 4.8% 1.0% 3.7% 1.3% 4.3% 1.4%
  • 50. Though It’s Sending a Little More Traffic Than Before
  • 51. Mostly, That’s FB Groups, Pinterest, & Instagram
  • 52. Instagram Has Always Prevented Outlinking
  • 53. Now They May Be Targeting the “Link in Bio” Via AgoraPulse AgoraPulse’s experiment found a 34% decrease in avg. reach when a post contained the phrase “link in bio” or similar.
  • 54. YouTube Cuts Off Descriptions to Avoid Making Links Visible in the Default View
  • 55. On Mobile… They Hide Them Entirely
  • 56. Twitter & LinkedIn Bias Against Posts with Links Via MarginallyCoherent
  • 57. And All of Them Push Content that Engages > Content That’s “Shared” Crazy high impressions… Relatively few retweets?
  • 58. The tweets that engage people ON Twitter > high metric tweets that contain links 
  • 59. How Can Social Marketers React?
  • 60. Three Ways to Still Get Value from Social in 2019: 2) Use Social to BuildAudiences Who Know & Like You 1) Play to the Networks’Bias for High Engagement Streaks 3) Drive Branded Search & Clicks w/ Latent vs.Active Links
  • 61. Engagement Streaks Rule Social Happy Dance! Sad Trombone.
  • 62. Social Algorithms Are Designed to: Engage Addict Retain Does this content attract users, generate likes/shares, & hold their attention? Do users who see this content stay on our platform and keep engaging? Do users who’ve consumed this content return to our platform again & again?
  • 63. When I have a low engagement post, my next post has a harder time reaching a big audience.
  • 64. When a post gets high engagement, FB boosts the reach of my next post (unless it starts to show poor engagement)
  • 65. In this way, Facebook (& Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, etc) reward high engagement streaks and makes accounts w/ low engagement invisible.
  • 66. To benefit from this system, use a formula like this: High engagement, non- promotional post High engagement, non- promotional post Promotion w/ CTA High engagement, non- promotional post These earn brand exposure & new followers High engagement, non- promotional post
  • 67. To benefit from this system, use a formula like this: High engagement, non- promotional post High engagement, non- promotional post Promotion w/ CTA High engagement, non- promotional post These capitalize on your algorithmic reputation for high engagement, & earn direct traffic High engagement, non- promotional post
  • 68. Using Social Effectively Builds Brand Familiarity This is all generic, not- actionable, next-to- useless advice 
  • 69. To Build Brand on Social, We Need: 2) Content that is obviously connected to the brand 1) Content that earns high engagement & amplification 3) Content that creates emotional resonance (best done through compelling stories)
  • 70. Use Latent vs. Active Links to Your Brand That’s what I’m talking ‘bout! That’s no so bad, either 
  • 71. Content + Social = Awareness Awareness + Awesomeness = Conversion
  • 73. For 15 Years, Content Marketing Worked Great Like This…
  • 74. Content Flywheel 2001-2016 KW Research + Industry Intuition Publish Content Promote via Social Channels Push to email + RSS subscribers Earn Links + Amplification Grow social, email, RSS, & WoM channels Grow Authority & Brand Recognition Earn Search & Referral Traffic Rank Higher, Get More Traffic
  • 75. But, in 2019, Four Forces Work Against This Model #2 Demands for monetization and growth have pushed tech monopolies to become publishers’competitors #1 Search Engine & Social NetworkAlgorithms Have Become Winner Take Most Platforms #3 Amplifiers are overwhelmed by requests and more skeptical than ever before #4 Traffic quantity correlates less & less with conversions
  • 76. How Can Content Marketers React?
  • 77. How to Make Content Work in 2019 2) Build content like you build product, i.e. deliver unique value with a competitive advantage to a hungry audience 1) Find the intersection of what resonates with your customers AND their influencers 3) Use content to earn email subscribers, and drive conversions from there
  • 78. Successful Content Targets Topics that Resonate with Amplifiers, Not Just Customers What Your Customers Care About What Influential Publications & People Your Customers Listen To Care About Topics with high potential reach
  • 79. The Most Visited Piece the NYT Ever Published? Dialect Quiz Map via NY Times Grabs you fast, then demands engagement Plays to the psychological desire for categorizing oneself & others Creates a viral loop (through sharing & seeing friends’ answers)
  • 80. Content as Product This interactive piece from Typeform isn’t just “good content;” it delivers: Unique value Reference-worthiness A view into Typeform’s competitive advantage Rise of the Conversational UI via Typeform
  • 81. Content → Email Subscriber → Conversion “A visitor who reaches us via search is 1/19th as likely to subscribe as one who comes in from a newsletter; a reader coming in from Facebook is 1/12th; and a reader coming in from Twitter is 1/6th.” -Nicholas Thompson, Editor in Chief Via Wired
  • 85. The Late Adopters Are Finally Crossing the Digital Marketing Chasm Via Geoffrey Moore These players have lots of $$$, entrenched brands, & are used to overpaying for untrackable advertising
  • 86. Venture Dollars Are Also Flooding Ad Markets Via PWC/MoneyTree
  • 87. Investment Dollars Aren’t Seeking Profits… Just Growth Via Statista
  • 88. Ad Bids in Many Sectors Go Far Above What’s Profitable
  • 89. Ad Costs Have Gone Up, While ROI Trends Down Via BusinessInsider
  • 90. And Ad Tracking Getting Much Harder Which Will Reinforce Large Quantities of “Dumb Money” > More Trackable Advertising The concept of a 90-day look back window is a wrap. Retargeting beyond 7 days is dead. Effectively, for a sales cycle of any realistic length, the whole concept of attribution outside of last click is over. Via iPullRank
  • 91. Influencer Marketing is Even Harder to Track Via Linqia
  • 92. And Accountability is a Massive Issue Via TheDrum “I do campaigns for brands on a weekly basis and less than half ever come back for metrics; less than 50% ever want to know what’s happened. That makes me think it’s PRs playing a numbers game and once a campaign has gone no one is really interested.”
  • 93. How Can Ad Professionals React?
  • 94. First: Organic + Brand; Then: Ads + CRO If you’re not yet known, liked, & trusted, ad ROI sucks.
  • 95. Via Wordstream New to a market? This happens. Known & loved? Welcome to Profitville.
  • 96. If “Branding” and “Awareness” are your biggest goals… Measure that! Via Google Trends Branded Search *IS* a Measurable Number
  • 97. The Most FollowedAccount(s) that Match a Keyword Search Traditional Influencer Marketing Seeks Out: The Most-ReachableAccount(s) that Match a Keyword Search OR But That’s Not Really What We Want…
  • 98. Targeting on Audience Size > Audience Match 4mm followers Followed by 19% of profiles that frequently talk about “supercars”
  • 99. What You Really Want: People & Publications YourAudience Engages With Most Followed by 16% of people who frequently talk about “Italian food”
  • 100. What You Really Want: People & Publications YourAudience Engages With Most Small overall following, but reaches exactly who we want to reach!
  • 101. How to Win at Digital Advertising in 2019 Step 2: Earn brand exposure through organic, social, content, SEO, events, & targeted brand marketing Step 3: Get >1 organic visit (or a social engagement) Step 4: Pay to advertise where your audience engages to those who already know+like you Step 1: Interview, survey, or use profile data to discover where your audiences engage (and with whom/what)
  • 102. Influence Let’s Evolve How We Create Ready?
  • 103. Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO Thank You! Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019