Understanding pakistan 2010


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  • Too cluttered. Why the big fat arrow Iran to TSP and TSP to China? I added political aspect of TSP in Somalia and Sri Lanka
  • So who created the term? Sher Ali Khan or Maududi? Please explain what message we are tying to convey with the last 2 bullet lines: Gen Yahya Khan wanted to crush Bengali Nationalism while JeI included Sindh and Baloch nationalism. Gen. Yahya Khan and Maududi came together and laid foundations for TSPA and Deobandi branch of Islam.
  • Understanding pakistan 2010

    1. 1. UnderstandingPakistanD RamanaJuly, 2010
    2. 2. 06/14/13 2Key topics Why study Pakistan? Nazariya-e-Pakistan Fault lines Pakiban & Terrorist groups MQM Historical background and Great Game Indian Role in Afghanistan Conclusions
    3. 3. 06/14/13 3Why Study Pakistan ? Geopolitical location Fallout to neighboring states Pakistani genocide in Baluchistan to gain stranglehold offuture energy pipeline from Central Asian states Global Islamist terrorism and nuclear proliferation ISI is core of ‘New Islamic Caliphate’ (kingdom/empire)Long term goal to create Islamic Caliphate from Delhi toChechnya with Islamabad as capitalISI is a mixture of ‘Mukhbarat’ and ‘Khalifa’ Future trajectory of the vast region from Morocco toMindanao is linked to the ‘political experiment’ in Pakistan
    5. 5. 06/14/13 5Conflicts linked to Pakistan
    6. 6. 06/14/13 6Outcomes from Pakistan crisis Talibanization of PakistanGrass root fueled by atrocity of state police/administrationReaction to one from of state atrocity  atrocity to other peopleDrug money controlled by ISI is key to birth of this Pakiban Civil war breaking out in the country Spread of State-sponsored terrorism from Af-Pak frontier Spread of nuclear materials from Pakistan Spread of regressive version of Islam into the subcontinentand elsewhere Increased cost to Indian existence, economy, polity andworld statureIf and when TSP refugees stream across to India, India will havecivil strife
    7. 7. 06/14/13 7Uniqueness of Pakistan First Islamic State in the modern eraFirst modern state based on religion.Second is Israel. Hope of new beginning for MuslimsSub-continentWorldwide Promise betrayedEvery index of development shows negative trendFought numerous wars: India, East-Pakistan, Baluchistan (genocide)and AfghanistanSource of religion based terrorism & nuclear proliferation everywhere Modern State theory does not explain the downward spiralof Pakistan
    8. 8. 06/14/13 8Modern Islamic State RulershipPresident = Sultan (presently Kiyani is the de-facto Sultan) Madrassaization of Education Dominance of one ethnicityArab = Punjabi Language conformanceArabic = Urdu Spread of Religious FervorNumerous organizations located in Pakistan spreading “din” Reconquista themeLands once “Dar-ul-Islam” have to become Islamic again (India).Muslim majority areas cannot be under non-Muslim ruleScope: All world, Indian-subcontinent, Europe, Africa, China Ideology exportGoes with the spread of fervor
    9. 9. 06/14/13 9Key Events in 2007-2010 Elections in TSP announcedReturn of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto from “exile” Gen Kiyani appointed Chief of Army StaffPresident Musharraf sheds uniform Killing of Benazir Bhutto Elections in TSP lead to PPP majority in most of the countryGeelani sworn as PM Resignation of Musharraf as President Election of Zardari as President Not all ousted Judges restored Talibanization of FATA continuesReverses of TSP MilitaryUS starts air and helicopter attacks in FATA region Survival of Karzai Govt in Afghanistan in doubt Economic Crisis haunts TSP Election of Obama in USA Mumbai Terrorist AttackAf-Pak strategy announced by US Gen. McChrystal dismissedUS imperative to get out of Af-Pak
    10. 10. 06/14/13 10Special significance to India’sAfghanistan Policy Af-Pak strategy announced by US Gen McChrystal dismissed US imperative to get out of Af-PakIndian Strategy• Wash hands off Karzai• Fully back NA elements• All $1B aid be given to NA elements• Regularize relations w/Iran, and help establish Iranian legitimacyin Baluchistan (Shia)• Psy-op to increase Afghani demand to incorporate Pushtunregion across Durand line in FATA area• Before TSP pulls on India a two front war, Pakistan should bemilitarily engaged on three fronts:1. Baluchistan front (Iran and another country providing support)2. Northern Alliance (hitting TSP targets)3. Indian front
    11. 11. 06/14/13 11Nazariya-e-Pakistan (N-e-P)Ideology of Pakistan Ideology of Pakistan:Fabricate legitimacy to illegitimate state Slogan first coined by Gen. Sher Ali Khan, Information Ministerand former Chief of Staff of Pakistan Army "Pakistan ka matlab kya, La ilaha illallah” :{What does Pakistanmean, there is no God but God!}Pakistan’s Raison dêtre: No longer refuge for ‘Muslim kaum’ in thetyranny of Hindu dominated India.Genocide in Bangladesh, and Baluchistan not withstandingNew goal is to establish Global Islamic Caliphate Term was also adopted by Maulana Maududi and his partyJamaat-e-Islami(J-e-I) Gen Yahya Khan wanted to crush Bengali Nationalism while J-e-I included will to crush Sindh and Baloch nationalism.Gen. Yahya Khan and Maududi came together and laid foundationsfor TSPA and Deobandi branch of Islam.(Continued …)
    12. 12. 06/14/13 12Nazariya-e-PakistanIdeology of Pakistan. (Continued …) After 1971 Zulifikar Ali Bhutto was forced to Islamize at franticpace, to not lose space to Islamists.The massive defeat in 1971 and the ascendency of J-e-I led to theArmy assume role of “Guardian of Islam.” Gen Zia coming to power led to consolidating the N-e-P conceptthrough wholesale changes to textbooks and complete rewritingof fabricated historyDeobandi J-e-I and Salafist Kingdom of Saudi Arabia supported thetransformation TSP army is has grown senior from Zia’s days to increaseradical (non-Salafist) fervor in Deobandi core and current officercrop from old on its last leg of Deobandi office. For ISI it is more easy to control Deobandi ulema compared toSalafi ulema
    13. 13. 06/14/13 13Nazariya-e-PakistanUnderstanding the termsEarly Islam institution:Caliph (is head of Army)Mukabarat (answerable to Caliph)Ulema:: explain hereZawabit: Ziauddin Barani wrote “The king must rule” i.e rulershipis in hnds of the ruler and not the ulema.Deobandi and JeM are Ulema of ISIDeoband ar now more extremist IslamistsSalafi will never replace Deobandi in heartlands of PakistanN-e-P is an attempt to inculcate among the Pakistani masses thehabit of looking at India through the prism of Deobandi variety of Islam
    14. 14. 06/14/13 14Nazariya-e-PakistanUnderstanding the termsDeoband and SalafismSimilarityRigid extreme form of IslamDeoband has recently acquired ethnic racism and harder Islamist overtonesContrasts1. Deoband : Pakistan centric,2. Salafi: Wherever the KSA money flows3. Deoband is a religious movement that grew strength out of politicalmovement4. Salafism is a political movement that grew strength out of pseudoreligious movement, with racial overtones (KSA)ISIISI should not be viewed as an Intelligence AgencyISI is a modified version of Islamic institution of “Mukhbarat” from earlyIslam, that penetrates every facet of Pakistani life.ISI is a mixture of ‘Mukhbarat’ and ‘Khalifa’ISI is core of ‘New Islamic Caliphate’ (kingdom/empire)Long term goal to create Islamic Caliphate from Delhi to Chechnya withIslamabad as capital
    15. 15. 06/14/13 15Nazariya-e-Pakistan(N-e-P) (Continued …) The massive defeat in 1971 and secession of East Pakistan led to arethink of the idea that Pakistan was the guardian of Islam They wanted to assume a more radical role of “Guardian of Islam” incontext of Indian Sub-continent as their existence was under threat atthat time and India was the enemy. Fears of further secessions of Sindh or Balochistan N-e-P was designed as an alternative to the cry “Islam is in danger” or“Islam khatre main hain!” At the very basic level N-e-P is a social re-engineering similar to Naziattempts to remake Germany
    16. 16. 06/14/13 16Indian Perception of Pakistan Two nation theory aka Partition theoryHindus and Muslims are two separate nations and need two states. Policy with an eye on Indian Muslim population Ignores the various schisms and factions in PakistanMore importantly ignores Pakistani self perception which is “NotIndian” Pakistan was never wanted to be equal to India butsuperior to India in every which way When Indians say “they are like us only” it negates the selfimage of Pakistanis and hurtsThere is nothing that Indians can do to assuage the Pakistani self image at this time
    17. 17. 06/14/13 17Fault lines in Pakistan Ethno-RegionalPunjab, Sindh, NWFP, & BalochistanHow India takes advantage: Baluchistan, increaserelationship w/Iran, and not succumb to US interest. Baluach is Shia nation: Indian press should call it BalauchiNation, in all press reports.NWFP : India has squandered the legacy of FrontierGandhiPolitical, Economic, WaterIndus river treaty should be reviewed every 3 month Contigent on Pakitan’s good behavior ReligiousSunni vs Shia, Ahmediya, Christian & HinduRelationship w/Iran will take care of Shia part
    18. 18. 06/14/13 18Fault lines in PakistanPakistan Oppressed Nations Movement (PONAM)Umbrella group of Sindhis, Balochis and PashtunsMohajir Vs Non-MohajirKarachi City Urban vs RuralKarachi and Lahore vs Provinces
    19. 19. 06/14/13 19Pakiban Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Sunni (salafi/wahhabi/Deobandi) Taliban organization, normally opposedto Barelvis Emerged in the FATA areas of NWFP in 2007 About 40 local Taliban leaders announced the formation of TTP on Dec.14, 2007 to centralize their command. Amir - Baitullah Mehsud (of South Waziristan), appointed by Mullah Omar First Naib Amir - Maulana Hafiz Gul Bahadur of North Waziristan. Second Naib Emir - Faqir Mohammed of Bajaur Spokesperson - Maulvi Umar Has a shura (consultative committee) of 40 senior Taliban leaders fromthe entire NWFP area (including FATA and Settled Areas) Aim:To establish an Emirate, to enforce Sharia, to unite against theNATO forces in Afghanistan and defeat them just as they did againstanother superpower USSR, and do defensive jihad against the PakistanArmy if it comes in the way.
    20. 20. 06/14/13 20Rise of Pakiban Its very clear that the border areas/NWFP (which wascreated by Lord Curzon incidentally) are gettingfundamentalized / Talibanised. A corridor is being formed with its writ on west bank ofIndus. Add to that the recent reports of Karachi and Talibanizationof Sindh all these are portends of the coming fractures ofTSP if not de jure.
    21. 21. 06/14/13 21Terrorist Orgs in TSP LeJ (Lashkar-e-Jhangvi) Sunni BannedAug 14, 2001 SM (Sipah Mohammad) Shia Banned Aug14, 2001 LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) Sunni WahhabiBanned by Pakistan in Jan 15, 2002. JeM (Jaish-e-Mohammed, Army ofMohammed) Banned by Pakistan in Jan15, 2002. HUM (Harkatul Mujahideen) SunniDeobandi Banned in Nov, 2001 Al-Badr Mujahideen HuJI (Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami) HuT (Hizb-ul-Tahrir, "Freedom Party")Banned Nov 20, 2003 TNSM (Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi) HMA (Harkat-ul-Mujahideen-al-Aalmi,meaning HUM, International) Brigade 313 Harkat-ul-Ansar(HuA) Jandullah (Army of Allah) Jundullah Sunni Tehrik Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (Army of theProphets Companions) Al-Muhajiroun Khudamul Furqan Banned Tanzeem-ul-Ikhwan Zafar Group Tariq-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqh-e-Jaafaaria (TNFJ) Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Banned Lashkar-e-Islam Tehreek Islami Lashkar-e-Mohammedi Islamic Jihad Union (IJU)
    22. 22. 06/14/13 22Sarkari Islamist Groups Tehreek Islami Lashkar-e-Mohammedi Formed in Karachi in February, 2008 Umbrella organization for SSP (Sipah-e-Sahaba-e-Pakistan, the mother of all terror outfits), LeT, JeM andHM. Announced promulgation of Shariah throughout Pakistan. Amir: Wajahat alias Sami alias Gulfam alias Mansoor(Arrested in Karachi mid-2008)
    23. 23. 06/14/13 23Pakiban Civil Wars The Bangash tribesmen who are massacring the Shia are part of the Karlani group oftribes, one of whose constituents is the Mehsuds as well.• The Shia stand no chance at all, because they are not getting equivalent or superior weaponry, that Iran or othercountry could supply, though they are getting Hazara fighters from Afghanistan. Very soon, the Shia-Sunni of FATA will engulf Pakistan.Recent reports speak of SSP (Sipah Saheba-e-Pakistan, the most militant Sunni organization)becoming very active in Karachi and in return the Shia Sipah-e-Muhammed (known by variousnames such as Tehreek Jaffria Pakistan & Islami Tehreek-e-Pakistan) have become active aswell. At the same time, another war is also going on in FATA between the Barelvis and theDeobandi/Wahhabi groups.The Sunni Tehreek (ST, a member of Al Qaedas International Islamic Front, IIF) has its handsfull against many warlords in FATA. Thats the problem for the Taliban and Al Qaeda. They havemany warring groups within the fold. Again the Arabic saying: Me against my brothers, me andmy brothers against our father, me, my brothers and my father against our cousins . . .A Pasthun is at peace, when he is at war!
    24. 24. 06/14/13 24Mohajir Quami Movement Altaf Hussain formed All Pakistan Mohajir Students Organization(APMSO) in 1978 in Karachi Formed Mohajir( Refugee) Quami Movement (MQM) in 1984 inKarachi. Name changed to Muttahida (United) Quami Movement in1997 to counter allegations of being a refugee interests party. Allied with Benazir Bhutto’s PPP in 1988 Crackdown by Pakistan Army in 1992 led to Altaf Hussain’s exile toLondon MQM represents émigrés from all over India who are tied by languageof Urdu and do not form part of the elite ruling groups
    25. 25. 06/14/13 25Historical background of Pakistan Ahmed Shah Durrani’s Empire British Expansion in Anglo- Punjab Wars Great Game IdeasBuffer States for British India Modern Great GameOil, Energy and Geopolitics
    26. 26. 06/14/13 26Ahmed Shah Durrani’s Empire
    27. 27. 06/14/13 27India’s Outer Buffers-CaroeCaroe’s notion of buffer state of Afghanistan need tobe now restated as Baluchistan as buffer state, and NA(mixture of Tajiks and Uzbeks) as the other buffer state
    28. 28. 06/14/13 28Caroe’s Seven Power Circles
    29. 29. 06/14/13 29Great Game aspects of TSP
    30. 30. 06/14/13 30Brezinski’s Grand ChessboardBrezenski considers Pakistan onthe periphery of Central Asia
    31. 31. 06/14/13 311948 Situation Map
    32. 32. 06/14/13 32Oil Pipelines from Central Asia
    33. 33. 06/14/13 33Natoization of Afghanistan US invasion ofAfghanistan after 9/11 US needed NATOtroops to takeover ISAFwhile engaged in Iraq NATO and US troopsunder constant attackfrom Taliban forcessheltered in FATA/WANA regions ofPakistan
    34. 34. 06/14/13 34Indian Role in Afghanistan India always was interested in Afghanistan Before 9/11 supported Ahmed Shah Masood and his Northern Alliance Supported the Hamid Karzai govt. – All future aid should be disbursed to NAelement to be the Indian buffer Reopened the consulates in Jalalabad, PeshawarIndian Embassy building bombed. Most likely ISI supported terrorists Built the road from Zaranj to Kabul providing the alternate land route to onecontrolled by Taliban Built the power grid to supply power from Tajikistan Assistance ~ $1Billion and is the largest amount outside US. Stable Afghanistan is a national security interest of India, but beyond Indianpowers Un-stable Afghanistan with strong NA, is also of long term national securityinterest of India, regadless of stabelity in Afganistan. A more achievable andrealistic goal.
    35. 35. 06/14/13 35Western Alternative plans forPakistan remapping Bernard Lewis Ralph Peters Pashtun - Durand Line Pashtunistan Billboard map
    36. 36. 06/14/13 36Bernard Lewis Plan• Truncates Pakistan• Splits Pashtun areas and Baluchistan• Keeps Sind and Karachi with Pakjab
    37. 37. 06/14/13 37Ralph Peters•Similar to Bernard Lewis Plan
    38. 38. 06/14/13 38Pashtun PlanCreates greater Paktunistan includingparts of AfghanistanKeeps Sindh and West Punjab together
    39. 39. 06/14/13 39New Pashtunistan BillboardsMore realistic as it covers all Pashtunspeaking landsEven Keeps Sindh and Pakjab togetherSeparates Northern Areas ofAfghanistan
    40. 40. 06/14/13 40Indian Claims in 1947Note the border of greater Punjab isEast of Indus and includes BhawalpurSindh is separate and removes Karachifrom Pakjab
    41. 41. 06/14/13 41Most Likely
    42. 42. 06/14/13 42Indian Perspective The loss of Kandahar by Akbar in 1588 was the death blow of theMughals as they were finished in less than 150 years after that. The frontier areas were allowed to go under Persian influence and led tothe Durranis taking over Afghanistan with severe consequences tomainland India. Ranjit Singh created the buffer state and the English got hold of thoseareas after the Anglo-Sikh Wars. Durand line was created after the Anglo-Afghan wars and formalized the de-facto buffer created due to RanjitSinghs efforts. To support Pashtun recovery of Durand line will bring the frontier back tothe outer rim of Indian core lands. Pashtuns should be satisfied with what they have. Another argument is the Sarkari Pashtuns on the eastern side of Durandlines are the tribes that sided with Aurangazeb and being the successorstate it is India that should look out for them eventually. Frontier Gandhis debt has to be repaid. He was let down badly as wedidn’t understand nor had the capability to support him in 1947.
    43. 43. 06/14/13 43Afghanistan in Pak sights The top priority of US for next two administrations will be war inAfghanistanFuture of NATOContainment strategy towards RussiaGrand ideas like unilateralism and war as diplomatic tool Pakistan has realized that if it chooses it can make matters worse forthe US in AfghanistanNATO jugular in Pak gripTSP troops in border areas keep the Taliban in check at same timekeeps the US from retaliating75% of all supplies through TSPUS unwilling and unable to use Russian or Iranian route for suppliesMore SF ops in borderlands is invitation to future disaster
    44. 44. 06/14/13 44Afghanistan in Pak sights The top priority of US for next two administrations will be war inAfghanistanFuture of NATOContainment strategy towards RussiaGrand ideas like unilateralism and war as diplomatic tool Pakistan has realized that if it chooses it can make matters worse forthe US in AfghanistanNATO jugular in Pak gripTSP troops in border areas keep the Taliban in check at same timekeeps the US from retaliating75% of all supplies through TSPUS unwilling and unable to use Russian or Iranian route for suppliesMore SF ops in borderlands is invitation to future disaster
    45. 45. 06/14/13 45Radicalization of TSP society If you watch TSP channels one sees that there is a de-facto separationin the TSP society also. What I mean for example, there are two cooking channels on GEO TVboth hosted by women- One is a modern type but dressed in Indianattire, the other is an Islamist with head covered. So they cater todifferent segments of the society. The curious thing is they both makeContinental dishes! And the music shows have two streams- pop and sufi type. So there isa fundamental schism underway in TSP on fundamentalist lines Regular news reports of schools, beauty shops closed
    46. 46. 06/14/13 46Portraits of Women in MuslimPeriod
    47. 47. 06/14/13 47Future Trajectory of Pakistan• As Pakistan society gradually transforms from Deobandi to Wahabiform:• An accelerated social engineering change which breaks a millenniumof continuity to Indian civilization is underway• The object is to create a demographic mass which is Wahab/Salafistand will have far reaching impact on India and global Islam
    48. 48. 06/14/13 48Conclusions The rise of Pakiban is erasing the Durand line. Whatwe are seeing is the gradual failure of two states- TSPand Afghanistan. Afghanistan elections and US allegations of fraud haveweakened Karzai. If the Taliban come to power and return to old ways itwill lead to a default Northern Alliance Tajik leadershipwhich will unite all Pashtuns (sarkari and non-sarkari,Ghilzai and Durrani)) under the Taliban black flag. So any way one looks at it 2010 is critical year for thatarea.
    49. 49. 06/14/13 49Alternate Prognosis The new elite in Islamabad must realize, that an ideologicalnecessity no longer exists for the continuance of military ruleThey need to let the kabila guards go and allow the society tosettle down and be at peace with itself and its neighbors. There is also no reason why Balochs, Sindhis and Pashtunsshould not have greater autonomyNazariya-e-Pakistan is not realisticEven during the pre-Mughal era the Turks and Afghans foughteach other Pakistan must repeal its law declaring Ahmadiyas as non-Muslims, and give more freedom to Christians and Hindus. The new elite should envision a new concept of how Pakistanshould look like in future and abandon the “Not India” vision
    50. 50. Grand Strategy
    51. 51. 06/14/13 51Grand Strategy Pakistan as viable state has cease to exist Accommodation and prodigal son treatment hasnot made them see reason
    52. 52. 06/14/13 52Factors to be considered Pakistan factorsPak militaryNukesIslamized society US and UK factorsNukes controlStabilityTerrorismCheck on India PRC factorsCheck on India Indian factorsIndian Muslim society– Indian liberalsIndian military preparedness
    53. 53. 06/14/13 53Dealing with Pak factors Pak Military Nukes Islamized society
    54. 54. 06/14/13 54Dealing with West factors Nukes Control Stability Terrorism Check on India
    55. 55. 06/14/13 55Dealing with PRC factors Hedge for rising India
    56. 56. 06/14/13 56Dealing with Indian factors Indian Muslims Indian Liberals Indian political class Indian civil and military preparedness
    57. 57. 06/14/13 57Adverse Consequences Outside forces will interveneIncrease military and diplomatic preparednessImprove economy to fund all activitiesCreate media awareness of Indian interests Increase in terrorist attacks due to uncontrolled radicalsImprove internal security networksIntegrate civil and military forces coordination Radicalization of Indian MuslimsCreate stake for Indian Muslims to identify with IndiaIncrease economic pie so they can be accommodatedEngage in dialogue with IM ulema to develop local identityReduce foreign funding of madrassas
    58. 58. 06/14/13 58Action Plan Non-war collapse is the best option after taking into account all theconstraints Increase Indian economy in order toIncrease funds to support other aspects of action planIncrease IM stake in India Stabilize AfghanistanA stable Afghanistan will divert Pak resources militarily, economically andculturally.Include aid to Afghanistan as line item in Indian budget as part of MEAIncrease Afghan training in Indian academies- civil and military Create de-facto cordon around PakistanInclude the countries in the immediate neighborhood and immediate area andreduce Pakistan influence in the area: Sri Lanka, Bangla Desh and Nepal Take all measures short of war to reduce PakistanEconomic (trade, commerce and water, diplomatic and cultural
    59. 59. 06/14/13 59Action Plan contd Increase Indian military preparednessIncrease IBG deployments to 10. Reduce Strike corps mobilization time orrelocate in forward areasIncrease IAF squadron strength to handle two front war to preclude PRCinterventionIncrease IN ship strength for enforcing a cordon sanitaire to mitigate falloutIntegrate internal security apparatus with military as required Diplomatic offensive to lull and manage a fait accompliEngage US in talks and PRC in other areas Prepare action plan for post-Pakistan regionComprehensive and implementableUnion territory status for broken up areas for thirty years to be reviewed everyten years. Final goal is reincorporation. Governors will be appointed withconsentReorganize NWFP as Pashtunistan Union Territory with contiguous areas fromBaloch and Punjab.Reconciliation commission comprised of senior officers from three services ofboth countries to re-integrate the armed forces
    60. 60. 06/14/13 60Pakistani Manifest Destiny End of Khilafat with Ottoman Empire UK created/shaped as new custodian of Muslim territories. KSAcreated, and kowtows to dominant power 1945 at the end of WW2 USA is sole power earlier powers arenobody. KSA kowtows to dominant power KSA on its own does not have population to recreate the IslamicEmpire Khalifa (Islamic Second Reich)
    61. 61. 06/14/13 61Pakistani Manifest Destiny KSA and TSP together can be new Khilafat Wahabization of Pakistan necessary for that expansion ofKSA. ISI is both the Mukhabarat and Khalifa New Islamic Empire capital in Punjabi-Pakistan in Pakistan