CAN FORMER INSURGENT CPN/MAOIST LEAD
NEW NEPAL FOR THE BETTER DIRECTION?
A GENERAL WEEKLY SITUATION ANALYSIS REPORT
RAJ K PANDEY, MBS, MA (RURAL DEVELOPMENT)
GPO BOX: 19862
Mobile: 977-01-98510 86884
firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org
Nepal is again a hot topic because of the former insurgent Communist Party of Nepal (CPN/Maoist)
unexpected victory in the CA elections (April 10, 2008) on both math and ideology after being
introduced by the 10-year protracted People's War and 2-year long post-conflict flexible security
situations and instabilities. International communities that followed the Big House Media propaganda
that the Maoists would be lost have been astounded. The suspended king Gyanendra, who used to pay
visits to the generals for dinners with smiling face, is now quivering. Nepali Congress (NC), ruling for
almost 18-years after popular movement I 1990, has become a fish out of water, although NC has been
demanding CA polls 60-year back. Madhav Nepal, who regarded himself strong founder of the
CPN/UML, has resigned from the post of General Secretary on the moral background of party's defeat
and it has been approved, but is trying his best to win heart and mind of UML leaders and cadres to be
the President of the party soon.
The 97,000 NGO activists, mostly affiliated to UML and NC, who joined the election observation to
tag the Maoists' for rigging the CA polls have been flabbergasted. The security mechanism, which is
incapable to assess the defeat of its Minister of Home, is amazed. The Army Chief, who used to send
his Generals to Prachanda for informal meetings and performed tug-of-war with the Maoists from afar,
has become hushed like a snake in front of a mongoose. About 1,000 strong International Observer
Team, which assessed that Maoists would face a defeat prior to the polls, now is in a quandary. It
seemed a consensus amongst all the mainstream political parties during the casting and counting of
votes. However, as the results were unanticipated, they now are seeking to clamor that Young
Communist League (YCL)–fusion of military and political force of Maoists had manipulated the votes.
Combining both the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) and party's closed list Proportional Representation
received 38% votes Table 1: Party wise CA result status in FPTP
whereas NC 19%, Candidate Elected representative
UML 18% and Female Male Total Female Male Total
Madhesi Janadhikar N Party Name
No % No % No % No %
Forum (MJF) 9%
1 CPN - Maoist 42 11.41 198 5.53 240 23 79.31 97 45.97 120
(Table-1). Against 2 Nepali Congress 26 7.07 214 5.98 240 2 6.90 35 16.59 37
the communist 3 CPN - UML 27 7.34 212 5.93 239 1 3.45 32 15.17 33
forces had received 4 Forum 3 0.82 100 2.79 103 2 6.90 28 13.27 30
40 percent result in 5 TMLP 4 1.09 90 2.52 94 1 3.45 8 3.79 9
last April 1999 6 Sadhvawana 4 1.09 83 2.32 87 0 0.00 4 1.90 4
Parliamentary 7 Janamorcha Nepal 28 7.61 175 4.89 203 0 0.00 2 0.95 2
election.Communist 8 Workers and Peasants 27 7.34 71 1.98 98 0 0.00 2 0.95 2
groups for the CA 9 Independent 42 11.41 774 21.63 816 0 0.00 2 0.95 2
polls have 10 Rastriya Janamorcha 15 4.08 107 2.99 122 0 0.00 1 0.47 1
accumulated 61 11 Others 150 40.76 1554 43.43 1704 0 0.00 0 0.00
percent (excluding 12 Total 368 100 3578 100 3946 29 100 211 100 240
26 nominees by
cabinet) and thus borne the prime responsibility to draft and ratify new Constitution on consensus and
cooperation of Seven-Party Alliance and other factions.
Total out of 240, women from FPTP consisted of 12% (29), of which Maoists comprise 10% (23-
member) alone (See table 1). This result is evident that younger, clean image, fresh and dynamic were
elected rather than old ideologies, attitudes, methods along with ill-famous leaders. The representatives
between 25-40 year age group of Maoist are 60%, whereas NC 8%, UML 12%, MJF 47%, etc.
The Attributes of the Result
Bahun and Chhetri are the most over-represented group proportionately comprising 42.08% of the
elected representatives in 30.89 percent of the population.
Elected Tarai and hill Janajatis candidates are to some extent under-represented in proportion of 7.50
percent in 8.69 percent of Table 2: Caste/Ethnicity and region-wise results of FPTP in CA polls
the last census and Caste/Ethnicity East Central West
Mid- Far- Grand Member Census
West West total (%) 2001 (%)
24.58% of the elected
candidates in 27.74% of Bahun/Chhetri 16 25 21 23 16 101 42.08 30.89
Dalit (hill) 1 1 2 2 6 2.50 7.11
population respectively. Dalit (tarai) 1 1 0.42 4.66
Janajatis (hill) 18 24 15 2 59 24.58 27.74
Madhesis, representation Janajatis (tarai) 6 3 4 5 18 7.50 8.69
Madhesi 14 11 28 2 55 22.92 19.12
of Terai comparatively Total 56 49 81 21 33 240 100 98.21
(22.92 percent of the elected candidates) in terms of their 19.12% population.
Both hill and tarai Dalits are under-represented among elected candidates where hill comprises of
2.50 percent in compared to their 7.11 percent population in the last census and tarai consists of only
one (0.42%) elected candidate as compared to their 4.66 percent of the population all from the CPN-
Maoist. There was no single Dalits elected from the Far Western Region. Out of 7 sub-groups, Kami
and Sarki elected three in each and one Paswan from tarai.
Many urban elite voters (the pillars of the political instability, ineffective governance and
administration, inequality - distribution of resources and opportunities, inadequate service delivery
system, injustice to identities and beliefs, inefficient socio-cultural and political-economy
transformation), along with high-profile diplomats who have much trust upon bIG House Media had
a hypothesis that Maoists would reduce the votes of UML and other communist groups resulting NC
to be the largest winner again. As a
result, they continued all types of Table 3: Age Group of FPTP results in CA polls
support (economic, moral and 25-30 31-40 41-50 51-60
Political Party 60+ yr Total
yr yr yr yr
political) to them.
CPN (Maoist) 21 51 32 13 3 120
NC 3 14 11 9 37
On the other side, the leaders of NC CPN (UML) 4 22 7 33
and UML leaders were experienced, MJF 4 10 9 5 2 30
vocal and cunning to mislead the TMLP 4 3 1 1 9
poor people in compared to Maoists, Sadhbhavana 2 2 4
MJF and others. People were Janamorcha
Nepal 1 1 2
familiarized their permanent election
NMKP 1 1 2
symbols of their parties too.
RJM 1 1
Page 1 1 2
Total 25 75 84 38 18 240
However, those analyses went vain, because UML lost 10 percent votes while NC lost 15 percent in
compared to the last parliamentary elections 1999. As the diplomats failed to analyze the ground
reality of Nepal and they become futile in front of their bosses, they are now seeking to neutral and
academic analysts albeit supporting (financial and moral) to the media.
This election showed that the people are more aware than the political party leadership and that they
are for forward looking evolutionary or revolutionary trend for their peace, progress and prosperity.
Even though, 5 percent votes were disqualified due to lack of voter education. In 1951, the NC had
shadowed the RPP, whereas in 1990 elections UML presented as the second largest party.
This time for CA polls too, Maoists have become a hot issue of debate and discussion everywhere
how Maoists bagged such huge votes. First, during the People's War, common people were
empowered. Second, the FPTP candidates were inclusive. Third, they were the force putting the
agendas for republic, federal structure government with autonomy and CA polls in priority since a
long. They were the one to raise the voices of the poor, marginalized and vulnerable people. The
MJF also raised these issues prominently, which resulted them to become the fourth power in the
CA. Every election, people seek forward-looking change against Nepal's traditional development
model, leader and party.
Table 4: FPTP and PRS Results of CA
The agendas # Organization Member
Member % Votes % Member % Votes % Total (%)
raised by NC 1 CPN - Maoist 120 50 3,145,519 30.52 100 27.70 3,144,204 29.28 220 36.61
and UML 2 NC 37 15.42 2,348,890 22.79 73 20.22 2,269,883 21.14 110 18.30
3 CPN – UML 33 13.75 2,229,064 21.63 70 19.39 2,183,370 20.33 103 17.14
lagged behind 4 Forum 30 12.5 634,154 6.15 22 6.09 678,327 6.32 52 8.65
the new trend 5 TMLP 7 2.92 345,587 3.35 11 3.05 338,930 3.16 18 3.00
and waves. 6 Sadbhawana 4 1.67 - 0.00 5 1.39 167,517 1.56 9 1.50
7 Janamor.Nepal 4 1.67 - 0.00 5 1.39 164,381 1.53 9 1.50
elected 8 Majdor Kisan 2 0.83 - 0.00 2 0.55 74,089 0.69 4 0.67
candidates 9 Un. Janamorcha 1 0.42 - 0.00 3 0.83 106,224 0.99 4 0.67
bagged three- 10 Independent 2 0.83 - 0.00 0 0.00 - 0.00 2 0.33
times more 11
Nomination 0 0 - 0.00 26 7.20 - 0.00 26 4.33
12 RPP 0 0 - 0.00 8 2.22 110,519 1.03 8 1.33
counterparts, 13 CPN – ML 0 0 - 0.00 8 2.22 243,545 2.27 8 1.33
and most of 14 CPN - United 0 0 - 0.00 5 1.39 154,968 1.44 5 0.83
those are from
15 RPP - Nepal 0 0 - 0.00 4 1.11 263,431 2.45 4 0.67
mountains, 16 Janashakti 0 0 - 0.00 3 0.83 102,147 0.95 3 0.50
except 17 Other parties 0 0 1,602,906 15.55 16 4.43 737,543 6.87 16 2.66
Total 240 100 10,306,120 100 361 100 10,739,078 100 601 100
Although India's role to wipe out Maoists from tarai seemed quite tough, their presence in those areas
is strong. Although, the CA poll was more peaceful than the past parliamentary elections, there were
many reports of violence in the media. The YCL was on the headlines of election rigging, however
65 percent of those killed during the election campaign belonged to them. Why the Maoists became
the largest party? There are three aspects that caused people to cast vote for the Maoists. First, they
received votes from their cadres and affiliated people. Second, voters who wanted peace, prosperity
and security. Last, poor and marginalized groups who were attracted by their slogans and manifesto.
During the People's War, UML and NC concentrated in the cities, whereas the Maoists spread their
influence not only in the rural areas but also in the cities and towns. The poster of Madhav Kumar
Nepal bowing in front of Gyanendra, during his coronation ceremony and begging the position of
Prime Ministry through request letter to Gyanendra was widely posted throughout the country. This
also smeared UML's image. UML rejected the Maoist proposal of 60:40 since they thought that the
latter feared of defeat.
Maoist cadres claimed that India is spending huge amount of money for the defeat of Maoists.
Nevertheless, neither any parties alleged nor the Indian government, which aroused suspicion
amongst the voters, disclaimed it. Anti-USA sentiment is quite strong in Nepal. People consider NC
and UML close to the USA and that reduced their voters. The US strategy to 'observe India, encircle
China', has become a flop after the CA polls result. Its spy mechanism shall also be returned back
along with not extending the time of invited institution.
Maoists still face difficulties in convincing the international communities that they believe in
competitive multi-party system guaranteeing all fundamental human rights. The seven political
parties are being polarized for and against YCL and ex-combatants. The group of NC leaders likes
Sher Bahadur Deuba (former PM) et. al. are putting pressure not to let go the political power, which
is against the verdict of the people. The proposal of Prachanda for repelling of all past unequal
bilateral treaties and agreements with India is in itself a challenge. Some left Indian intellectuals are
also pressurizing for revision of the unequal treaties to which the new Indian Ambassador has given
positive signals, but Indian Hindu fundamentalists are campaigning to keep the Hindu kingdom.
Because of unsure about Maoists' Public-Private Partnership policy, capital is being transmitted
abroad. It would be difficult for the Maoists to work with the bureaucracy and diplomats over whom
UML and NC have had strong hold. The declaration and implementation of republic by the first
meeting of CA is itself a big challenge. If bitter relationship develops between UML-NC-Maoists,
the possibilities of the formers to align with the king exist by marginalizing other.
Similarly, consensus building for federal structures and formulation of new constitution by two-third
majority are also huge obstacles on their road ahead. MJF's proposal to include other mainstream
parties, emerged after the elections, along with the Seven Party Alliance in the Interim Constitution
also requires two-third majority in the house. Implementing of the Agreements and Understandings
with different parties/groups is also of serious concern. If those are not taken with due gravity, the
security situation would become more vulnerable than in past.
The Maoists' also have challenges within their strategies and action plans. It has advanced the
revolutionary drive, but it is not very easy for them to continue their 'revolutionary reformism' –
Marxism-Leninism-Maoism-Prachandapath –at present the state mechanism as well as international
phenomena. The past has shown that 'left' forces are radical revolutionary when outside the power,
but turn into 'ultra right' as they ascend to power. There is the challenge of slipping to repeat the past.
The forthcoming government headed by Maoists is at the edge of a sticky situation. Unless the
Maoists pursue honesty, integrity, transparency, accountability and belief in the people, it will be
difficult for them to surmount these obstacles.
The Nepal Army (NA) and the security mechanism did not win over the Maoists and peace process
was based on 'neither/nor'. Hence, possibilities for them are: (i) comply with the government
decisions; (ii) resign; and (iii) stage a coup. The third option will again plunge the country into
devastation, but it is not possible against the verdict of people now. Not only academic qualification
but also skills, techniques and bravery are important for military personnel. Therefore, there is
needed to have an integration between ex-combatants and NA.
The writers/analysts producing reports focusing the political ground reality of Nepal in the past
labeled as "Maoists" and shaved to a corner by anti-Maoists national and international forces. Now
the scenario has been changed due to ground reality coincided with the people's mandate and Maoists
commitment to democracy and economic liberalism. Those earlier anti-Maoist national and
international forces are flabbergasted because their analysis burst as soap bubbles.
It is quite certain that Maoists will lead the government soon, as it is the largest party in the CA. The
Central Committee meeting of CPN (Maoist), has decided to form government under Prachanda's
leadership, as head of the state and demonstrating flexibility, decided to offer Premiership and
Chairperson of CA either to NC or the UML. If both do not agree in the consensus, it took the
decision to form 'minority government'. It also planned to stage 'People's Revolt' if the incumbent
NC-lead government does not step down based on the fresh people's mandate. The biggest challenge
is to write and declare new constitution than the free and fair CA polls, because more than 25
national, regional and cultural based political parties are participating in the CA, as compared to 13
in the past.
Similarly, there is no possibility to disband People's Liberation of Army (PLA) as they are backbone
and shield of the Maoists. Will be able to move ahead rallying NC, UML, MJF and other parties
together? Sustainable peace, security and equitable development rely on confident building measures
and alliance with all concerned parties instead of SPA amending the Interim Constitution. People's
desire is to end hunger, ill health, unemployment, injustice, exploitation and discrimination, and thus
mandated the political parties to work unison towards it. In the CA is election, although
mathematically some have won and some have lost, but all have won in the qualitative sense. This is
a victory of NC and UML too, since, NC was the 'first in the history' to demand for the CA and
UML, under late General Secretary Madan Bhandari, had proposed for it.
APPENDIX-A: WEEKLY SECURITY SITUATION (27April-4 May 2008)
27 April, Kathmandu, CPN UML central working committee approved the resignation tendered
by its General Secretary Mr. Madhav K. Nepal on the moral ground.
27 April, Siraha, Police arrested Chairman of underground Terai Aajad (Freedom) Party.
27 April, Makawanpur, Hetaunda, Transport entrepreneurs and employees have demanded the
removal of tax collection posts set up by District Development Committee all across the
country. Four different transportation employee unions said that they would take to the streets
if the government filed to address their demands soon.
27 April, Dolpa, Protesting against water scarcity, hospital halted service for half an hour since
the hospital is suffering due to water shortage for the past several months.
28 April, Parsha, Nepali Congress CA Candidate has filed a case at the CA Court challenging
the victory of a CPN/UML candidate from Parsha Contitient-4 with a charge of an unfair poll.
28 April, Pythan, Dharmawati VDC, a group of seven Maoist cadres vandalized a Nepal Red
Cross ambulance and also beat up driver as he failed to stop the ambulance at their bidding.
28 April, Lalitpur, Ekantakuna, An irate group vandalized a microbus which was carrying the
journalists working for the National Dailies – The Himalaya Times and Annapurna.
28 April, Kapilvastu, Mahendrakot VDC, Maoist thrased two Nepali Congress cadres reasoning
that they did not vote for the CPN/Moaist in poll.
28 April, Bara, Rampur-Tokani, Production work at Dabur Nepal, a multinational company,
has been halted after locals created obstructions by padlocking the entrance gate of the factory
demanding job opportunity for them. The company has filed an application at the District
Administration Office seeking security
28 April, Siraha, Silowarpachhari, An armed group abducted a government employee in Siraha
who was working with the GoN/Survey Office.
28 April, Kathmandu, Top four parties – CPN/Maoist, Nepali Congress (NC), CPN/UML and
MPRF – have agreed in principal to scrap a provision in the interim constitution that requires
two-third majority to both form and oust the government.
28 April, Kathmandu, The CPN/Moaist, however, has put a condition that there should be a
presidential system and that the president should be from the party if the amendment is brought
in consensus with all other parties.
28 April, Kathmandu, Manamaiju VDC, a former army personnel currently working as a
private security guard has been found dead under mysterious circumstances in capital. His body
was found drenched in a pool of blood on the road with serious injuries in the back of his head.
Police, however, have detained a couple from nearby residence on suspicion of their
involvement in the incident.
28 April, Dhading, Ree VDC, CPN/UML two cadres have been abducted from Ree VDC in
Dhading by YCL.
29 April, Ramechap, Bijulkot, At least 8 persons were injured in a scuffle after Dalit stepped
into the kitchen of higher cast people.
29 April, Parsha, Birgunj, At least 4 persons were injured in a bomb explosion by SJTMM.
29 April, Rautahat, Bariyarpur, local has been seriously injured from the bullets fired by an
30 April, Surkhet, Police investigating the murder of CPN/UML candidate said that they are
trying to find out the motive behind the killing as police bodyguard recently admitted that he
accidentally shot dead the CA poll candidate.
30 April, Bhojpur, Kulung, At least 4 UML cadres including district leader were injured when
Maoist activists allegedly attacked them. Protesting the beating, the UML district committee
organized a protest rally at district headquarters.
30 April, Parsha, Birgunj, a team of businesspersons of Birgunj Chamber of Commerce and
Industry (CCI) called on District Police Office and demanded security in industrial sector. The
business community is often targeted by criminal gangs and underground outfits for extortion.
30 April, Siraha, Lahan, Epidemic of diarrhea is spreading rapidly across the district flowing
the sudden climb of the temperature. Around 10 patients are visiting local hospital daily which
is speedily growing since last week.
30 April, Sunsari, Sonapur-2,Property worth at least NRs. 1.5 million was damaged when fire
engulfed Pashupati Edible Oil Factory in industrial corridor of the district.
30 April, Morang, Biratnagar, A shortage of petroleum products has been felt in the eastern
region after the stock in the depots of Nepal Oil Corporation started depleting following a cut in
supply by Indian Oil Corporation, which wants the NOC pay its dues first before resuming
fully regular supply.
1 May, Rupandehi, Bhairahawa, An unidentified gang detonated a bomb inside the house of
Moaist lawmaker killing one person. Locals informed that the gang fled toward India.
1 May, Chitawan, Narayanghat, CPN/Maoist cadres severely beat up Assistant Health Worker
after he refused to abide by a kangaroo court verdict.
1 May, Saptari, Rajbiraj, An unidentified gang opened fire on a senior left party leader at his
residence. He was heat in the chest when he refused to rent room for them.
1 May, Kathmandu, Nepal Police arrested nearly 70 Tibetan protestors trying to demonstrate in
front of the Chinese Embassy. And, security at China bordering districts has been beefed up at
late due to the Free Tibet Movement in China.
1 May, Siraha, Maoist cadre injured when an unidentified gang shot at him.
2 May, Saptari, Rajbiraj, Thirty-two houses of 13 families were destroyed by fire that broke out
on night. Property worth NRs. 4 million was damaged and 16 domestic animals were killed.
2 May, Rautahat, Chandranigahapur, An unidentified group abducted VDC Secretary from his
residence at Jayanagar of the district.
2 May, Siraha, A group of eight-ten armed robbers made away with properties worth NRs.
300,000 from three houses in Laminiya-8 of the district.
2 May, Parsha, Birgunj, Police arrested a youth with 70 fake Indian currency notes of Rs. 500
denomination and the case is under investigation.
2 May, Kailali, Clash between police and land less dwellers took place where nearly 11 persons
injured. Police tried to relocate them as the forest has been encroachment illegally.
2 May, Kathmandu, NEFIN threatens for the protest as political parties failed to ensure
representation in the CA of at least 20 marginalized groups, thereby violating the agreement.
2 May, Humla, At least sixteen persons were injured in a clash that took place between police
and students, as the latter tried to lock up the District Administration Office and Telecom
Office in protest against the alleged irregularities in the distribution of mobile sim cards.
3 May, Kathmandu, The US, which still regards the CPN/Maoist as a terrorist organization, has
indicated it would seek ‘legitimate reconciliation and reintegration politically’ in Nepal after
the Maoists’ election victory which indicated by the Senior US Officials.
3 May, Sunsari, Ramgunj, JTMM-J abducted a hilly person who is originally from Kathmandu,
in the charge of women trafficking to India.
3 May, Nawalparashi, An unidentified gang looted a local businessman including other locals.
3 May, Sunsari, Jhumka, Police arrested one person with weapons who has been accused for
the involvement of looting in the different places of the district.
4 May, Kathmandu, The GoN has decided to provide NRs. 100,000 to each family who lost
their member due to a decade long insurgency in Nepal. It will be burden of 3 billion to the
Ministry of Finance. It is expected that the number may roughly 14,000 across the country. The
support will also be distributed to Nepal army and Police.
4 May, Bardia, Fire has been raging in National Park and National and Community forest even
in Banke since two weeks and is yet to be brought under control as it is spreading rapidly.
4 May, Furnishing their preliminary reports, at the Election Commission, nine national and four
international poll observer organizations, however, said that despite the very volatile security
situation and poor law enforcement, all must be satisfied with the poll.
4 May, Jhapa, Damak, Several Bhutanese refugees in the camps are receiving threats of killing
by the unidentified underground group called ‘Black Cat’.
4 May, Lalitpur, Nakhipot, it has been theft nearly worth 60,000 from a residence in Lalitpur
which occurred mainly during load shedding period.
4 May, Saptari, According to source, nearly 6 persons, in an average, have been kidnapped by
the different underground and unsocial armed groups across the district.
4 May, Rupendehi, Narayanghat-Butwal sector was bandha due to chakkajam caused by raod
accident imposed by locals.
4 May, Kapilbastu, Ramnagar, Nearly 1 dozen locals have been beten up by Terai Madhesh
Democratic Party (TMDP) for not casting vote for them in the CA poll. Dozens of local people
have been displaced to other parts of district due to fear of action by TMDP.
4 May, Banke, JTMM groups killed a Maoist cader at Bethani-3 by shooting him up.
4 May, Bhaktapur, Thimi-Sankhadhowor sector of Arniko highway was disturbed due to a
motorbike accident and locals interrupted the movement for some hours.
4 May, Saptari, Locals have killed JTMM-J cadre by beating up him at Tikulia VDC.
4 May, Parsha, The physicians of Narayani Hospital at Birgunj organized a strike and shut all
the services including emergency for not supporting the hospital management as it was a
conflict between doctors and management.