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Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture
Proposal to prepare a compendium of case studies on adaptation to Climate
Change in the Agriculture sector in the Indian context

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  1. 1. Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture Proposal to prepare a compendium of case studies on adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture sector in the Indian context Rahul Bhargava August 2012c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava Methodology and foundation 1 Methodology 1 l Equipment 2 Foundation 2 a Climate variability and change guideline NICRA technical programme 5 3 os Sensitivity variables 9 Adaptive capacity variables 9 Adaptation measures 10 op Description of proposed tasks 11 Glossary 14 References 14 Pr 1 Methodology and foundation 1.1 Methodology Both primary and secondary sources will be used to gather information. These will include, Review of the literature To capture the broader context and provide a frame of ref- erence for the case studies. Also for stocktaking of existing activities related to climate change adaptation in the Indian context and desk review. Key informant interviews Senior managers and officials with the Government, aca- demics, civil society and NGOs who are knowledgeable about interventions being undertaken and their strategic value 1
  2. 2. Limited survey of field personnel and beneficiaries To gather representative statistics where none are available via representatives Limitations and expectations Budgetary and time constraints will limit the number of field visits, surveys and interactions possible. 1.2 Equipment For recording Key Informant interviews, taking some lessons from the ethnographic film and documentary literature [Lindenmuth(2010), Grimshaw(2004), Heider(2006), Jong and Austin(2008)], I have procured equipment for field work, including a digi- tal SRL camera, with several lenses, an electronic field recorder, lighting equipment comprising of a flash and LED panels, various mounts and a tripod.c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava Over several months, and having taken several thousand photographs, I have im- proved my photography skill and I am currently learning from the documentary and ethnographic film literature how best to record interviews and field visits. I propose to use my own equipment in the field, or where higher quality professional l equipment is available or rentals can be costed, I can operate alternatives instead. a Audio recording Zoom H1 portable digital recorder. Professional equipment alterna- os tives are the Zoom H4n portable, capable of four channel simultaneous recording or the Tascam DR-100 MkII portable digital recorder. Photography and Video recording Canon EOS 550D with the Canon EF 50mm f/1.8 II, Canon EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS II and Canon EF 75-300mm f/4-5.6 III lenses. op Professional equipment alternatives are the Canon EOS 5D Mark II SLR or Nikon D800 SLR. GPS logging, electronic field data entry and electronic release forms Using a smart- phone and a laptop, or dedicated alternatives including customisation of software Pr by me, I am able to present GPS logs, geotagged photographs and video taken, to those I interact with and offer release forms so that the collected data can be used for the purposes of the study. 1.3 Foundation I propose to refer to the following integrating framework to provide context for the case studies in the broader scheme of climate change. Relevance and impact of interventions in the context of an integrating framework 2
  3. 3. Adaptation Impact on Climate change human & natural Temperature rise systems Sea level rise Food & water resources Precipitation change Ecosystem & biodiversity Droughts and floods Human settlements Human health Adaptation Mitigationc Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava Emissions Socio-economic & concentrations develpment Greenhouse gases Economic growth Technology Aerosols l Population Governance a Climate change - an integrating framework os Adapted schematic and simplified representation of an integrated assessment framework for considering anthropogenic climate change from the Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This summary was approved in detail at IPCC Plenary XVIII (Wembley, United Kingdom, 24-29 op September 2001) and represents the formally agreed statement of the IPCC concerning key findings and uncertainties contained in the Working Group contributions to the Third Assessment Report. 1.4 Climate variability and change guideline Pr As an example of a high level guideline on adapting to climate variability and change, USAID offers: Step 1 – Screen for Vulnerability Vulnerability Screening is a preliminary assessment of whether climate variability or change could compromise the integrity, effective- ness, or longevity of a project within the planning horizon for the project. Step 2 – Identify adaptations Work with stakeholders to identify alternative designs or management practices that may enable them to better cope with climate variability and change.The emphasis should be on finding measures that increase resilience to climate change, but still make sense under the current climate. Step 3 – Conduct analysis consequences of climate variability and change as well as the effectiveness, costs, and feasibility of adaptations that can reduce vulnerability to climate variability and change. 3
  4. 4. Step 4 – Select course of action Meet with stakeholders to review results of the analysis. Determine if changes in a current project design are required or if a proposed project should feature new adaptations. Step 5 – Implement adaptations Prepare an implementation plan identifying next steps, responsible staff and organisations, timeline, and resource needs required to incor- porate the climate change adaptations into the project. Step 6 – Evaluate adaptations Evaluate the implementation of adaptations and their effectiveness. Since many adaptations may be due to infrequent, extreme events or long-term climate change, it may be difficult to evaluate effectiveness in a relatively short time period following implementation. But, at a minimum, an evaluation can be done to see if the adaptations were put in place and whether there werec Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava problems or excessive costs associated with them. The Indian Government’s efforts directed at agricultural climate change adaptation are being coordinated under an umbrella network project called the National Initiative l on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). The objectives focus and provide resources a for the efforts of a large number of agricultural research institutions. They demonstrate that, at least in the context of Indian agriculture, there is a recognition that climate change is already having an impact on Indian agriculture and long running efforts can help os in adaptation by mobilising existing state institutes and infrastructure. The first steps, involving Vulnerability Assessment were taken a couple of decades back by TERI and others, and NICRA has revisited the monumental task of Vulnerability Assessment at a district scale. This exercise has been, or is likely to be soon, completed for six hundred op districts. It is evident that the resolution of detail can be increased, for quite a while yet, and with this will arise an opportunity to better respond for adaptation in near real time; a requirement imposed by the failure of the monsoon, for example. Having established vulnerability and sensitivity to climate change in the agricultural context, response is key. NICRA proposes to demonstrate geographically specific, ac- Pr counting for agro-meteo-ecological-socio-economic considerations, technology packages and to enhance the resilience of Indian agriculture covering crops, livestock and fisheries to climatic variability from better risk management. Capacity building of scientists is also a stated objective. The scale of the undertaking and its ambition necessitate treating the adopted objectives and proposed outcomes as the basis for any analysis of agricultural cli- mate change response in India. The package-response for adaptation approach is not unique to NICRA. Indeed, several Pusa institutes including the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)1 , Cereal System Initiative South Asia2 (CSISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center3 (CIMMYT), Stress-tolerant Rice for Africa and South 1 2 3 4
  5. 5. Asia4 (STRASA), International Rice Research Institute5 (IRRI) and International Livestock Research Institute6 (ILRI) are conducting pilots. NICRA’s reach, through the existing and well established State Agricultural Universities-Krishi Vigyan Kendra interfaces is substantial in comparison to the four ICRAF pilots. 1.5 NICRA technical programme NICRA proposed Technical Programme covers seven themes7 1. Vulnerability Assessment of irrigated zones and crops, viz. rice, wheat, chickpea, adopting an approach using indicator, discussed below in their historical context, and simulation modelling and all 600 districts and 127 NARP zones utilising indicators and mapping secondary data supplemented by primary data collectionc Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava from the districts 2. Comparative evaluation of farmers’ practice and real time contingency options, viz. crops, varieties, cropping systems and land management practices) at major rain- l fed agro-ecological zones to be carried out by 23 ACRIPDA centres. Customised a agro advisories at the village level through the State Agricultural Universities- Krishi Vigyan Kendra (SAU-KVK) interface with real time feed back, are to be pilot os tested 3. Standardising high-throughput phenotyping for wheat, rice, maize, pigeon pea, tomato and mango and field screening of germplasm for climatic stresses including development of transgenic varieties and identifying quantitative trait loci (QTL) op for heat, drought and flood tolerance. 4. Soil, water and nutrient management and agro-forestry. The measurement of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and an exploration of the measured benefits of soil carbon sequestration through biochar under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Pr 5. Collection of historical data on pest and disease dynamics and real-time data from AICRP centres on rice, pigeon-pea, groundnut, mango and tomato. The identification of pest and disease hotspots, including the identification of insect, pest and pathogen shifts in response to climate change, the development of pest and disease forewarning models 6. Survey of livestock breeds and farming systems in relation to climate data. Nutri- tional studies in cattle. Collection of long term national weather and disease data. Survey of pig and poultry germplasm in relation to climate. 4 5 6 7 technical-programme 5
  6. 6. 7. Analysis of climate data in relation to pisciculture production. The development of a methodology for impact of climate change on maturation of fish. NICRA’s Vulnerability Assessment focuses on weather indicators and a few socio- economic indicators. It is evident from the literature that concentration, biological, physical and economic indicators are considered important. It would be worthwhile to revisit what NICRA has achieved in shedding light on the situational assessment outside their chosen indicators in the case studies. To arrive at a situational assessment of the impact of climate change, changes have to be measured over time. For illustration, a few incomplete tables from IPCC’s Third Assessment Report are reproduced below:c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava Indicator Observed changes Concentration indicators 280 ppm from 1000 − 1750 to 368 ppm in l Atmospheric concentration of CO2 the year 2000, 31 ± 4% increase Terrestrial biospheric CO2 exchange a Cumulative source 30 GtC between 1800 to in the year 2000; net sink 14 ± 7 GtC os Atmospheric concentration of CH4 700 ppb from 1000 − 1750 to 1750 ppb in 2000, 151 ± 25% increase Atmospheric concentration of N2 O 270 ppb from 1000 − 1750 to 316 ppb in the year 2000, 17 ± 5% increase op Tropospheric concentration of O3 Increased by 35 ± 15% from the years 1750 to 2000, varies with region Stratospheric concentration of O3 Decreased over the years 1970 to 2000, varies with altitude and latitude. Atmospheric concentrations of HFCs, Increased globally over the last 50 years. Pr PFCs, and SF6 Twentieth-century changes in the Earth’s atmosphere Indicator Observed changes Weather indicators Global mean surface temperature Increased by 0.6 ± 0.2◦ C over the 20th century; land areas warmed more than the oceans (very likelya ) Northern hemisphere surface tempera- Increase over the 20th century greater ture than during any other century in the last 1,000 years; 1990s warmest decade of the millennium (likely). 6
  7. 7. Indicator Observed changes Diurnal surface temperature range Decreased over the years 1950 to 2000 over land: nighttime minimum temper- atures increased at twice the rate of day- time maximum temperatures (likely). Hot days / heat index Increased (likely). Cold / frost days Decreased for nearly all land areas during the 20th century (very likely). Continental precipitation Increased by 5 − 10% over the 20th cen- tury in the Northern Hemisphere (very likely), although decreased in some re- gions (e.g., north and west Africa andc Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava parts of the Mediterranean). Heavy precipitation events Increased at mid- and high northern lati- tudes (likely). Frequency and severity of drought Increased summer drying and associated l incidence of drought in a few areas (likely). a In some regions, such as parts of Asia and Africa, the frequency and intensity of os droughts have been observed to increase in recent decades. Biological and physical indicators Global mean sea level op Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness Non-polar glaciers etc. Economic indicators Pr Weather-related economic losses a Where appropriate, the authors of the Third Assessment Report assigned confidence levels that represent their collective judgement in the validity of a conclusion based on observational evidence, modelling results, and theory that they have examined. The following words have been used throughout the text of the Synthesis Report to the TAR relating to WGI findings: virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a result is true); very likely (90 − 99% chance); likely (66 − 90% chance); medium likelihood (33 − 66% chance); unlikely (10 − 33% chance); very unlikely (1 − 10% chance); and exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance). An explicit uncertainty range (±) is a likely range. Estimates of confidence relating to WG II findings are: very high (95% or greater), high (67-95%), medium (33 − 67%), low (5 − 33%), and very low (5% or less). No confidence levels were assigned in WG III. Twentieth-century changes in the Earth’s climate and biophysical system. Next, contributors to climate change are presented, for illustration, 7
  8. 8. Greenhouse gas Global warming potential (GWP) Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) 1 Methane (CH4 ) 23 Nitrous oxide (N2 O) 296 Hydrofluorocabons (HFCs) from 12 to 12, 000a Perflurocarbons (PFCs) from 5,000 to 12, 000a Sulphur hexaflouride (SF6 ) from Ramaswamy, V. et al. 2001. In Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y. Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C. A. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. a Range of values from different HFCs or PFCs. Moomaw, W. R., Moreira, J. R. et al. 2001.c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava Technological and Economic Potential of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction. In Metz, B., Davidson, O., Swart, R., Pan, J. (eds.) 2001. Climate change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 3 and its appendix. a l Greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol and their global warming potentials (GWPs) on a mass basis relative to carbon dioxide and for a time horizon of 100 years. os Under NICRA, some effort is being made to evaluate Indian agriculture’s contribu- tion to climate change. Certain measuring instruments have been commissioned, flux towers, for example. These readings will not be representative by a large margin, as the number of such instruments across the country are in the digits. op Also, satellites operated by various consortia and Governments including the Indian Government are able to report surface temperature to an accuracy within some bounds. Occlusion by clouds and other factors necessitate ground-truthed data. Temperature and rainfall data, at least at a district level resolution, is routinely collected by the Meteorological Department. It is known from several studies, including one by NCAER Pr in 2005, that the benefits of weather forecasting, agro-met advisories and the like, that are possible and improve as a consequence of higher resolution weather variable data collection, are disproportionately high relative to cost. For NICRA’s Vulnerability Assessment exercise, the following indicators were con- sidered: Exposure Impact, Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Sensitivity NICRA’s Components of vulnerability 1. Drought related (a) Frequency of occurrence of meteorological drought (moderate and severe), 8
  9. 9. (b) Number of dry spells during Kharif (June to October); (c) Rainfall in June and July; (d) Rainfall during December to April because of Western Disturbances which have impact on specific regions 2. Flood related number of events of rainfall of above 100mm in 3 consecutive days; to be linked to soil type and run-off 3. Heat wave As per IMD8 definition (number of days max. temperature exceeds normal by X ◦ C) 4. Cold wave As per IMD definition (number of days min. Temperature falls below normal by X ◦ C)c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava 5. Frost number of nights with < 0◦ C 6. Extreme rainfall events Frequency of 95 and 99 percentile rainfall l 7. Total rainfall 8. Number of rainy days a os 1.6 Sensitivity variables 1. Percent rainfed area (latest available) op 2. Replenishable ground water levels 3. Crop sensitivity (to be obtained from simulation modelling and statistical analysis 4. Degraded land or trends in land use Pr 5. Population density 6. Coast length 1.7 Adaptive capacity variables 1. Per capita income or per capita monthly expenditure (latest available) 2. Poverty incidence 3. Per capita non-agricultural GDP 4. Per cent of workers engaged in agriculture 5. Literacy 8 India Meteorological Department 9
  10. 10. 6. SC/ST population 7. Average land holding size 1.8 Adaptation measures Several organisations including ICRAF, Cereal System Initiative South Asia9 (CSISA) and the national and state extension machinery, including the Agricultural Technology Management Agencies10 (ATMA), are proposing and undertaking adaptation measures. A general list of measures is, Vulnerable sectors Reactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation Protection of groundwater re- Better use of recycled waterc Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava sources Water Resources Improved management and Conservation of water catchment maintenance of existing water areas supply systems l Protection of water catchment ar- Improved system of water man- eas a Improved water supply agement Water policy reform including pricing and irrigation policies os Groundwater and rainwater har- Development of flood controls vesting and desalination and drought monitoring Erosion control Development of toler- ant/resistant crops (to drought, op salt, insect/pests) Agriculture and Dam construction for irrigation Research and development food security Changes in fertiliser use and ap- Soil-water management plication Introduction of new crops Diversification and intensifica- tion of food and plantation crops Pr Soil fertility maintenance Policy measures, tax incen- tives/subsidies, free market Changes in planting and harvest- Development of early warning ing times systems Switch to different cultivars Educational and outreach pro- grammes on conservation and management of soil and water Public health management re- Development of early warning form system Human health Improved housing and living con- Better and/or improved dis- ditions ease/vector surveillance and monitoring 9 10 10
  11. 11. Vulnerable sectors Reactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation Improved emergency response Improvement of environmental quality Changes in urban and housing de- sign Improvement of management sys- Creation of parks/reserves, pro- tems including control of de- tected areas and biodiversity cor- Terrestrial forestation, reforestation and af- ridors policy ecosystems forestation Promoting agro-forestry to im- Identification/development prove forest goods and services of species resistant to climate change Development/improvement of Better assessment of the vulnera-c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava national forest fire management bility of ecosystems plans Improvement of carbon storage Monitoring of species in forests l Development and maintenance of seed banks a Including socioeconomic factors in management os Protection of economic infrastruc- Integrated coastal zone manage- Coastal zones and ture ment marine ecosystems Public awareness to enhance pro- Better coastal planning and zon- tection of coastal and marine ing ecosystems op Building sea walls and beach re- Development of legislation for inforcement coastal protection Protection and conservation of Research and monitoring of coral reefs, mangroves, sea grass coasts and coastal ecosystems and littoral vegetation Pr This table is from ‘National communications of non-Annex I Parties and UNFCCC Sixth com- pilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Addendum 5. Climate change impacts, adaptation measures and response strategies. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Climate Change: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in Developing Countries.’ 2 Description of proposed tasks • 8 good practices (4 through primary verification and 4 through desk review) on successful climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector in India. 1. Review the status of stress tolerant crop research, cereals and pulses, and progress on adoption through participatory seed selection and production in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar or Uttar Pradesh. Reach NICRA, CIMMYT, CSISA 11
  12. 12. and STRASA to learn about research and leading NGOs such as Action for So- cial Advancement (ASA) in Madhya Pradesh and NEFORD in Uttar Pradesh; NICRA’s interventions involves “introducing drought/temperature tolerant varieties, advancement of planting dates of rabi crops in areas with terminal heat stress, water saving paddy cultivation methods (SRI, aerobic, direct seeding), frost management in horticulture through fumigation, community nurseries for delayed monsoon, custom hiring centres for timely planting, location specific intercropping systems with high sustainable yield index” 2. Reach ILRI to learn about livestock related breeds and climate change adapta- tion interventions. 3. Review the status of Conservation Agriculture efforts including technol- ogy demonstrations by CSISA and others with an emphasis on localisedc Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava approaches with pro-poor bias 4. Assess the status of the national coordinated response by NICRA who have carried out Vulnerability Assessments in all districts and are carrying out l technology demonstrations. Earlier, exposure and sensitivity were measured, by TERI, by a climate sensitivity index that measured dryness, that is drought a sensitivity, and monsoon dependence, that is average of extreme rainfall events; adaptive capacity was measured by combining bio-physical, consist- os ing of, soil depth, severity of soil degradation and annually replenishable groundwater and extreme temperatures can be considered in addition, socio- economic, namely, human capital measured by literacy, alternative economic activities and landless labourers, and technological factors, namely, the ratio op between net irrigated area and net sown area, Infrastructure Development Index, transport, energy, irrigation, banking, education and health, to which fi- nancial inclusion and risk mitigation through insurance can be added. NICRA assesses exposure as being drought related, that is, number and frequency of dry spells, Karif and Rabi rainfall), flood related, occurrence of heat waves, Pr cold waves, frost, extreme rainfall etc. Rainfed area, replenishable ground- water, crop sensitivity, degraded land, population density and coast length variables are considered for sensitivity. Adaptive capacity is dependent on per capita income or expenditure, poverty incidence, workers engaged in agriculture, literacy, marginalised population and average land holding. 5. Assess the situation on the ground related to financial innovation including weather based crop insurance with inputs from the Agriculture Insurance Company of India Limted (AIC) and the technical assistance partners includ- ing the World Bank and ICRISAT; Here too NICRA’s interventions include “strengthening or creating seed banks, fodder banks, commodity groups, cus- tom hiring centre, collective marketing, introduction of weather index based insurance and climate literacy through a village level weather station” 6. Reviewing in-situ moisture conservation, water harvesting and recycling for supplemental irrigation, improved drainage in flood prone areas, conserva- 12
  13. 13. tion tillage where appropriate, artificial ground water recharge and water saving irrigation methods 7. Weather forecasting and advisories in Tamil Nadu, for example, where the state has invested in their own infrastructure 8. Promising technologies and approaches (CRIDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT) • Develop a template for developing such good practices into case studies based on this proposal and information from relevant past and further interactions • Liaising with various agencies identified above, including national and state Governments, ICAR, agricultural universities, civil society, and other scientific organisations to identify and recommend such practices.c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava • Identify and capture 4 case studies through field verification and consultation with various stakeholders. • Identify and capture 4 case studies through detailed desk review by assessing l the current status/ overview/ situation analysis of climate change adaptation in a agriculture sector in India (macro, micro and meso levels). • These case studies could be preceded by a brief critical review of key interventions/ os programmes / institutions/ agencies operating in the agriculture sector; key barriers and challenges for the climate change adaptation in agriculture sector. • Prepare a compendium of 8 case studies (4 through primary verification and 4 op through desk review) on good practices in Climate Change Adaptation in the Indian context. Based on the above, I propose four field trips to 1. Tamil Nadu to assess the efficacy of better meteo forecasts and the State’s response Pr to Climate Change 2. Hyderabad to visit CRIDA to learn more about NICRA, and ICRISAT to learn about emerging technologies and approaches 3. Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh to gain insight and assess the progress made by civil society and established NGOs. There are several macro questions that remain unanswered such as, if anyone is at- tempting carbon accounting and with what success? Carbon accounting is necessarily approximate, usually done in the agricultural context, by reference to controlled field experiments. It is critical for claiming carbon credits, however. 13
  14. 14. 3 Glossary Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially by climate related stimuli. This encompasses all elements of climate change, including mean climate change characteristics, climate variability and the frequency and magnitude of extremes. This may be direct, e.g. a change in crop yield due to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature or indirect, e.g. the damage caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to copec Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and also the extent to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive l capacity References a os [Grimshaw(2004)] Anna Grimshaw, editor. Visualizing Anthropology. Intellect Ltd, Bristol, UK, 2004. ISBN 9781841509099. [Heider(2006)] Karl G. Heider. Ethnographic Film (Revised Edition). University of Texas op Press, Austin, TX, USA, 2006. ISBN 9780292795655. [Jong and Austin(2008)] Wilma de Jong and Thomas Austin. Rethinking Documentary: New Perspectives and Practices. McGraw-Hill Education, Berkshire, UK, 2008. ISBN 9780335236275. Pr [Lindenmuth(2010)] Kevin Lindenmuth. Documentary Moviemaking Course. A & C Black, Huntingdon, UK, 2010. ISBN 9781408144770. 14